Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Thespoofer

Wanderer78 wrote: »

what about 'asymmetry of information'?

That aswell.

pearcider

bobbyy gee wrote: »

property crash already started

https://eirigi.org/latestnews/2020/2/7/has-a-2020-property-crash-already-begun

Excellent and succinct article. The big boys are long gone leaving the average joe holding the bag. That’s because they are insiders with intimate knowledge of both banking activity and the central banks that govern them. Plus ça change.

TheSheriff

cnocbui wrote: »

Funny how property can be both always over valued and yet listed at below value to get people 'sucked in'.

We see it regularly, moreso since March.

For instance, park in Castleknock, most 3 bed semi's with minor decorative updating on the PPR for for ~420k.

Recently, one went up for 380k and we thought great, prices must be dropping.

We stopped bidding after 410k and i believe it went for 425k, although not yet on register.

Pink11

Went to a viewing last week to a 3 bed terrace. Way smaller than average but very nice area tbf. House needed serious work too.

Asking for 360k. Was in middle of bidding war, was at 420k.

We both just looked at each other in shock and quickly exited! House wouldn’t be worth that money even in a boom! Couldn’t swing a cat

drogon.

Pelezico wrote: »

The Germans have a name for it ....schadenfreude..joy at someone else's misfortune.

There must surely be nothing more satisfying than buying a house for 300k when your neihhbour paid 450k.

I don't get this mentality. Sure person "B" bought the house at 450K, and person "A" might buy a similar house in the area for 300K in few years time. But what about when you include the average rent person "A" is going to spend from now until they can buy the same house for 300K ?

The average rent in Dublin is 2K a month, so in one year person "A" will pay €24,000 in rent alone, rather than paying off a mortgage. Now if Person "B" pays the same amount towards their mortgage they could easily save money on the long run by paying more towards their mortgage and saving on interest.

Mic 1972

The property market is in a boom, for some reasons this isn't registering with people.
Asking prices aren't going up because people aren't ready match the offer, they are going up because houses are being sold at higher prices than last year

Wanderer78

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The property market is in a boom, for some reasons this isn't registering with people.
Asking prices aren't going up because people aren't ready match the offer, they are going up because houses are being sold at higher prices than last year

....as theres still plenty of credit available, to those that can afford it....

Pelezico

Wanderer78 wrote: »

so whats wrong with the person thats gloating?

I think it quite normal myself.

Wanderer78

Pelezico wrote: »

I think it quite normal myself.

so gloating is normal behavior, and is also acceptable?

Pelezico

Wanderer78 wrote: »

so gloating is normal behavior, and is also acceptable?

Get off your high horse pal. Gloating is normal human behaviour.

neutral guy

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I agree with that, but that was always on the table
These multinationals don't go down because of covid or recession, they go down when their product is no longer marketable.

Or as usual they leave because has to cut expenses.
Once USA stock market will blow up after president election in November
The multinationals will start cut expenses in Ireland
Google already made step not taking additional property for 2000 staff in Dublin
The Nat West closing his Ulster Bank in Ireland

And remember guys Nothing started yet
The real mess will coming later !
At the moment The sky is blue but birds stopped singing.

Islander13

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The property market is in a boom, for some reasons this isn't registering with people.
Asking prices aren't going up because people aren't ready match the offer, they are going up because houses are being sold at higher prices than last year

Yep, can definitely feel some wind behind the market at the moment

Hubertj

Pelezico wrote: »

Get off your high horse pal. Gloating is normal human behaviour.

I wouldn’t agree with that. Shows a lack of class. Is that what you want junior to do if he manages to buy a place?

Graham

Pelezico wrote: »

Get off your high horse pal. Gloating is normal human behaviour.

Mod Note

knock it off. Your contributions today have been way below an acceptable standard, please fix that.

Do not reply to this post.

Pelezico

neutral guy wrote: »

Or as usual they leave because has to cut expenses.
Once USA stock market will blow up after president election in November
The multinationals will start cut expenses in Ireland
Google already made step not taking additional property for 2000 staff in Dublin
The Nat West closing his Ulster Bank in Ireland

And remember guys Nothing started yet
The real mess will coming later !
At the moment The sky is blue but birds stopped singing.

After the election, the balloon will go up. We are in the phoney recession at the moment. The fed is under pressure to monetise debt and the pain is being delayed.

Aftrr November, we will be in the house of pain.

That is when the real fun begins.

Smiley11

Pink11 wrote: »

Went to a viewing last week to a 3 bed terrace. Way smaller than average but very nice area tbf. House needed serious work too.

Asking for 360k. Was in middle of bidding war, was at 420k.

We both just looked at each other in shock and quickly exited! House wouldn’t be worth that money even in a boom! Couldn’t swing a cat

Have to agree. We had to walk from a bidding war recently & I think it'll take me a while to get over how frenzied it was. I certainly won't be bidding again any time soon! The house was amazing but I'd give a laymans estimate of having to put a minimum of 150k into it to make it what we wanted. I was told last week a friend of a friend had been quoted nearly 220k to renovate it!

We were at 550k & while it still wasn't at its inflated asking price, my husband just asked if I actually wanted to pay that much for a house in that condition &, as much as I adored it, my heart said no. Couldn't justify that spend & even though it will always be the one that got away, I can't see us regretting our decision.

People seem desperate & I can't be a part of this current market so we'll bow out for a few months. The truth is that not one of us on this forum know what way the property market will pan out over the next couple of years. Personally, if the right house comes up when this current frenzy calms, we'll be buying. The value of our home doesn't matter to us as we'll never be moving again.

My uneducated opinion on the market is that it will drop, but not by some of the crazy percentages floating around here! 10 to 15% I'd guess but it will take some time for it to happen. I'm a buyer with no chain so its in my interest for the market to bottom out but I can't see it happening. But again, none of us know.

Pelezico

Smiley11 wrote: »

Have to agree. We had to walk from a bidding war recently & I think it'll take me a while to get over how frenzied it was. I certainly won't be bidding again any time soon! The house was amazing but I'd give a laymans estimate of having to put a minimum of 150k into it to make it what we wanted. I was told last week a friend of a friend had been quoted nearly 220k to renovate it!

We were at 550k & while it still wasn't at its inflated asking price, my husband just asked if I actually wanted to pay that much for a house in that condition &, as much as I adored it, my heart said no. Couldn't justify that spend & even though it will always be the one that got away, I can't see us regretting our decision.

People seem desperate & I can't be a part of this current market so we'll bow out for a few months. The truth is that not one of us on this forum know what way the property market will pan out over the next couple of years. Personally, if the right house comes up when this current frenzy calms, we'll be buying. The value of our home doesn't matter to us as we'll never be moving again.

My uneducated opinion on the market is that it will drop, but not by some of the crazy percentages floating around here! 10 to 15% I'd guess but it will take some time for it to happen. I'm a buyer with no chain so its in my interest for the market to bottom out but I can't see it happening. But again, none of us know.

The inflated stock market has created a lot of money. Wait for the collapse after November.

Then the falls will come hot and heavy.

neutral guy

Smiley11 wrote: »

I'm a buyer with no chain so its in my interest for the market to bottom out but I can't see it happening. But again, none of us know.

I was working in joinery workshop in April of 2007 and I heard advertisement about Rent to Buy on radio.Some minutes after I heard another advertisement about 110 per cent mortgage.
I understood that there is no buyers left on market and this pyramide on way to collapse
My work mate just got 250 K mortgage for house with no windows and floors and bought nice coupe car taking another 20K loan
I said to him Look,this is the final,we are in deep sht
He looked at me and said Will you fkn shut up ?
Exactly 1 year after the company shut the door and he was seating in bank dealing about difficulties pay his mortgage and loan.
3 years ago I meet him in another company were I got job
I told him that another recession on way already and the mess gonna happen in 2020/2021
He was smiling and did not believe me again.

The Belly

My uneducated opinion on the market is that it will drop, but not by some of the crazy percentages floating around here! 10 to 15% I'd guess but it will take some time for it to happen. I'm a buyer with no chain so its in my interest for the market to bottom out but I can't see it happening. But again, none of us know

Stay on the sidelines and wait and see how the winter goes. You may be right but we are heading into unchartered waters now.

Pelezico

neutral guy wrote: »

I was working in joinery workshop in April of 2007 and I heard advertisement about Rent to Buy on radio.Some minutes after I heard another advertisement about 110 per cent mortgage.
I understood that there is no buyers left on market and this pyramide on way to collapse
My work mate just got 250 K mortgage for house with no windows and floors and bought nice coupe car taking another 20K loan
I said to him Look,this is the final,we are in deep sht
He looked at me and said Will you fkn shut up ?
Exactly 1 year after the company shut the door and he was seating in bank dealing about difficulties pay his mortgage and loan.
3 years ago I meet him in another company were I got job
I told him that another recession on way already and the mess gonna happen in 2020/2021
He was smiling and did not believe me again.

Are you looking forward to the recession neutral?

Graham

neutral guy wrote: »

I was working in joinery workshop in April of 2007 and I heard advertisement about Rent to Buy on radio.Some minutes after I heard another advertisement about 110 per cent mortgage.
I understood that there is no buyers left on market and this pyramide on way to collapse
My work mate just got 250 K mortgage for house with no windows and floors and bought nice coupe car taking another 20K loan
I said to him Look,this is the final,we are in deep sht
He looked at me and said Will you fkn shut up ?
Exactly 1 year after the company shut the door and he was seating in bank dealing about difficulties pay his mortgage and loan.
3 years ago I meet him in another company were I got job
I told him that another recession on way already and the mess gonna happen in 2020/2021
He was smiling and did not believe me again.

Did you have 97,000 friends buying just before the GFC or are you referring to the same person in every post?

The Belly

Pelezico wrote: »

The inflated stock market has created a lot of money. Wait for the collapse after November.

Then the falls will come hot and heavy.

careful not to underestimate the central bank's markets were supposed to plummet when trump got elected and the opposite happened.

Pelezico

The Belly wrote: »

careful not to underestimate the central bank's markets were supposed to plummet when trump got elected and the opposite happened.

Absolutely but the fed cant keep the market up forever. So many zombie companies being kept afloat by fed loans.

When the market crashes, houses will crash with them.

If should be fun.

hmmm

I think WFH is being over-stated. You're not going to move to Alaska if you work for a tech company because employees tend to move around very frequently - you're going to want to be near where the jobs are. The Googles, Facebooks etc want to be clustered near each other to draw on the wider talent pool.

What I am expecting we will see is WFH employees moving to nicer locations which can still easily access their office. We might also see areas like Sandyford or perhaps the area around Heuston become more attractive to employers for office-space.

I thought Cherrywood was a terrible idea, but in a pandemic which has led to WFH it could work out very well.

neutral guy

Pelezico wrote: »

Are you looking forward to the recession neutral?

I had very good life during the last recession
I hope I will have better during this one using experience from previous one
But I am afraid that this time could be something different.

The Belly

Pelezico wrote: »

Absolutely but the fed cant keep the market up forever. So many zombie companies being kept afloat by fed loans.

When the market crashes, houses will crash with them.

If should be fun.

It wont be fun at all.

Bubbaclaus

Graham wrote: »

Did you have 97,000 friends buying just before the GFC or are you referring to the same person in every post?

I think the premise of every one of his posts is that he thinks he is super Intelligent and everyone else is an idiot.

neutral guy

Graham wrote: »

Did you have 97,000 friends buying just before the GFC or are you referring to the same person in every post?

Sorry.Did not get you.

Why Sherlok Holmes see more details than another people ?
Why some people win and why some lose ?
Why some people make money and why some lose ?
We are different
I was starving and I had create ways to get food.One day I took bad lemons from bin beside fruit market washed them and sold them for half price in minutes.That I made first money for food when I was 10.
That why I see what other people does not.

Pelezico

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

I think the premise of every one of his posts is that he thinks he is super Intelligent and everyone else is an idiot.

Maybe he is right.

bobbyy gee

The Belly wrote: »

careful not to underestimate the central bank's markets were supposed to plummet when trump got elected and the opposite happened.

the feds pumped 5 trillion into economy now there's 25 trillion debt to be paid by tax payers they gave it out as unrepayable loans that don't need to be paid back come the November election the money tap will be turned off
and should go into ressesion the high stock market is due tona few tech companies ad millions of businesses have gone bank rupt and millions have become unemployed
some one has to pay the piper