Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Assetbacked

neutral guy wrote: »

Do you know how much cost daily for Dublin city couple thousands of Google workers who seating at home and make sandwiches at home as well ? How many them at home now ? It is just Google,what about others ? Do you know how many cafe,restaraunts,retail will never recover ? What about those cafe workers ? Were they live,own property ? How long they will pay historicaly high rent prices in Dublin without having a job ?

The main losses to jobs so far have come in the accommodation and food sector (61% lower), followed by 39% of jobs in arts and entertainment.

Source: https://www.thecurrency.news/articles/23564/long-before-googles-decision-the-tide-was-turning-for-dublin-commercial-property

That article also provides a graph to indicate the commercial property market peaked in Q2 2017 and by Q2 2019 only half the amount of commercial space was let by comparison. By Q2 2020 it was 10 times lower.

The Belly

neutral guy wrote: »

Prices starting falling when builders says prices will never fall !
Every single recession has same start !
Never underestimate second hand market !
When 3 beds on second hand will cost 100K builder will never sell new build for 320 K !

It the domino effect. Dont look what happens here look abroad. We will be one of the last dominos to fall but it will be hard.

neutral guy

The Belly wrote: »

It the domino effect. Dont look what happens here look abroad. We will be one of the last dominos to fall but it will be hard.

When builders come to TV and tell the Ireland that prices will never fall that mean they in trouble already.They simply try sell as much as possible as last time in 2008.

The Belly

neutral guy wrote: »

When builders come to TV and tell the Ireland that prices will never fall that mean they in trouble already.They simply try sell as much as possible as last time in 2008.

It all so clear and watch the banks. Every one rushes for the door at the same time like a fire in a nightclub. Signs are there and forget the ECB

neutral guy

The Belly wrote: »

It all so clear and watch the banks. Every one rushes for the door at the same time like a fire in a nightclub. Signs are there and forget the ECB

There is enough look at how Lidl and Aldi doing well to understand how many people stopped buy food from restaraunts and caffe and started make sandwiches at home.People consume food daily in same amounts and when you see were consuming wave moved you see who will lose jobs and who will stop pay rents and how much property for rent gonna cost.

The Belly

neutral guy wrote: »

There is enough look at how Lidl and Aldi doing well to understand how many people stopped buy food from restaraunts and caffe and started make sandwiches at home.People consume food daily in same amounts and when you see were consuming wave moved you see who will lose jobs and who will stop pay rents and how much property for rent gonna cost.

Don't need some person on tv to see what right in front of you. Problem is by the time they do its already here. Liquidity will dry up. House of cards and i dont say that lightly.

The Belly

well there wont be queues for new devlopments soon

neutral guy

The Belly wrote: »

Don't need some person on tv to see what right in front of you. Problem is by the time they do its already here. Liquidity will dry up. House of cards and i dont say that lightly.

There will be bigger demand get cash for buying property than property supply on market.
Other words there will be plenty property but nobody will have cash because banks will not give mortgages because people will not have jobs.
Nobody will bring cash from Australia or USA as before
There will be no problem with new built property on second hand market because enough was built already and sold for renting market
Renting market which is dead already
So there is no need to build good quality houses because they are on second hand market already
Also unemployed builders will converse your old house to better BER for good money no problem
So if builders will stop build "better quality" houses as they call there will be no problem with supply.

Hubertj

neutral guy wrote: »

There will be bigger demand get cash for buying property than property supply on market.
Other words there will be plenty property but nobody will have cash because banks will not give mortgages because people will not have jobs.
Nobody will bring cash from Australia or USA as before
There will be no problem with new built property on second hand market because enough was built already and sold for renting market
Renting market which is dead already
So there is no need to build good quality houses because they are on second hand market already
Also unemployed builders will converse your old house to better BER for good money no problem
So if builders will stop build "better quality" houses as they call there will be no problem with supply.

Will you start paying taxes?

The Belly

neutral guy wrote: »

There will be bigger demand get cash for buying property than property supply on market.
Other words there will be plenty property but nobody will have cash because banks will not give mortgages because people will not have jobs.
Nobody will bring cash from Australia or USA as before
There will be no problem with new built property on second hand market because enough was built already and sold for renting market
Renting market which is dead already
So there is no need to build good quality houses because they are on second hand market already
Also unemployed builders will converse your old house to better BER for good money no problem
So if builders will stop build "better quality" houses as they call there will be no problem with supply.

It will be one crisis after another and in the end the gov will build houses they will have no choice

The Belly

we are at the thin end of the wedge

Hubertj

The Belly wrote: »

It all so clear and watch the banks. Every one rushes for the door at the same time like a fire in a nightclub. Signs are there and forget the ECB

What do you mean? Are you suggesting the banks will be in trouble again? While they will have challenges around mortgage arrears I thought they weren’t as exposed to developers now compared to 2008?

The Belly

Hubertj wrote: »

What do you mean? Are you suggesting the banks will be in trouble again? While they will have challenges around mortgage arrears I thought they weren’t as exposed to developers now compared to 2008?

Them crowd that do the nonperforming loans cant remember the name have pulled out there is your canary in the coal mine

Hubertj

The Belly wrote: »

Them crowd that do the nonperforming loans cant remember the name have pulled out there is your canary in the coal mine

Pepper?

The Belly

Hubertj wrote: »

Pepper?

Think thats them yes

Graham

Weren't Pepper commercial/investment mortgages?

Hubertj

The Belly wrote: »

Think thats them yes

That was commercial lending though which represented a small % of their business, they pulled out of residential in 2018.

The Belly

Hubertj wrote: »

That was commercial lending though which represented a small % of their business, they pulled out of residential in 2018.

Just watch. It is the start.

Assetbacked

The Belly wrote: »

Them crowd that do the nonperforming loans cant remember the name have pulled out there is your canary in the coal mine

Pepper Money.

As for banks, KBC as well as Ulster Bank today announced job losses. Banks have struggled to turn profits and have made large bad loan provisions as a result of covid so it is going to get worse for them.

The Belly

Hubertj wrote: »

That was commercial lending though which represented a small % of their business, they pulled out of residential in 2018.

Im not having a pop at you but look at the bigger picture too.

Gumbo

Hubertj wrote: »

Pepper?

Pepper took over the managing of Bank of Scotland mortgages a year or 2 back also.

The Belly

Assetbacked wrote: »

Pepper Money.

As for banks, KBC as well as Ulster Bank today announced job losses. Banks have struggled to turn profits and have made large bad loan provisions as a result of covid so it is going to get worse for them.

ECB will provide the liquidity to banks we will have less banks but liquidity will not flow downwards. 100k guarantee will be gone.

neutral guy

The Belly wrote: »

It will be one crisis after another and in the end the gov will build houses they will have no choice

No
The first we did not recover from 2008 crisis
Immigrants will go home because no job and no money for rent
Eastern Europe developers says sales are growing because immigrants coming back .Same songs but those countries statistics show increase in population.
Again,population of labor from cheaper Eatern Europe countries ?
All try sell them property anyway
The more immigrants go home the smaller unemployment in Ireland the less government has spend for social welfare and rent alwance
More houses for rent / smaller prices for rents
Housing problem solved
Well,it will be good for the moment but after country will come back to cheap labor shortage also country need more labor to pay debs
Many things to tell .
This gonna be very interesting

Hubertj

The Belly wrote: »

Im not having a pop at you but look at the bigger picture too.

Interesting opinion. I haven’t seen it in any papers or Economic commentary, only on boards. Will keep it in mind. Thanks,

Assetbacked

neutral guy wrote: »

No
Immigrants will go home because no job and no money for rent
Eastern Europe developers says sales are growing because immigrants coming back .Same songs but those countries statistics show increase in population.
Again,population of labor from cheaper Eatern Europe countries ?
All try sell them property anyway
The more immigrants go home the smaller unemployment in Ireland the less government has spend for social welfare and rent alwance
More houses for rent / smaller prices for rents
Well,it will be good for the moment but after country will come back to cheap labor shortage also country need more labor to pay debs
Many things to tell .
This gonna be very interesting

Germany is going through a bit of a credit boom and this is reflected in its real estate sector which I understand is quite active. Jobs to be had on sites and excellent standard of living.

Smouse156

As much as I’d like to believe this doomsday talk as a FTB, I just don’t see it happening! Rents will definitely fall and vacancies rise & rise due to delusional landlords not accepting reality. However, on the home purchase front, there is still a severe shortage of decent quality stock.
With the expansion of Help The Brickie from 20k to 30k and from 5% to 10% many people can get new homes with no down payment. There will always be demand for this and we do not have the oversupply like last times to seriously depress the second hand stock.
In my Home Town, there’s a LIHAF scheme with 20k extra off 110 houses on top of help the Brickie. 88 are taken already. People buying 300k 3-beds are getting them for 50k off. These incentive schemes are why the market will keep going and possibly rise in the starter home category.
The expensive category €500k+ will struggle as no Govt supports.

The Belly

Smouse156 wrote: »

As much as I’d like to believe this doomsday talk as a FTB, I just don’t see it happening! Rents will definitely fall and vacancies rise & rise due to delusional landlords not accepting reality. However, on the home purchase front, there is still a severe shortage of decent quality stock.
With the expansion of Help The Brickie from 20k to 30k and from 5% to 10% many people can get new homes with no down payment. There will always be demand for this and we do not have the oversupply like last times to seriously depress the second hand stock.
In my Home Town, there’s a LIHAF scheme with 20k extra off 110 houses on top of help the Brickie. 88 are taken already. People buying 300k 3-beds are getting them for 50k off. These incentive schemes are why the market will keep going and possibly rise in the starter home category.
The expensive category €500k+ will struggle as no Govt supports.

Give it till the new year let the full effect kick in. I hope you are right though.

The Belly

neutral guy wrote: »

No
The first we did not recover from 2008 crisis
Immigrants will go home because no job and no money for rent
Eastern Europe developers says sales are growing because immigrants coming back .Same songs but those countries statistics show increase in population.
Again,population of labor from cheaper Eatern Europe countries ?
All try sell them property anyway
The more immigrants go home the smaller unemployment in Ireland the less government has spend for social welfare and rent alwance
More houses for rent / smaller prices for rents
Housing problem solved
Well,it will be good for the moment but after country will come back to cheap labor shortage also country need more labor to pay debs
Many things to tell .
This gonna be very interesting

your looking to narrow

Hubertj

The Belly wrote: »

ECB will provide the liquidity to banks we will have less banks but liquidity will not flow downwards. 100k guarantee will be gone.

So the BGS scheme will be gone in Ireland in return for ECB providing liquidity to Irish banks?

The Belly

Hubertj wrote: »

So the BGS scheme will be gone in Ireland in return for ECB providing liquidity to Irish banks?

New name but lending will be squeezed expect lots of we are still lending ads but figures will be low.