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What if no Vaccines work?

  • 05-07-2020 1:20pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 11,764 ✭✭✭✭ Gael23


    If none of these vaccines make it to mass production, we cannot keep this up forever, travel must resume and kids need to go to school among many other things.
    What happens in that event?


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 818 ✭✭✭ Heart Break Kid


    I’m more interested in how we will treat the next virus to hit. Is a complete lockdown the standard response going forward now?


  • Registered Users Posts: 565 ✭✭✭ rtron


    Gael23 wrote: »
    What happens in that event?
    We rethink and change the monitary, educational and religious structures to work around the virus and the challenges it brings. And learn to live in harmony with the universe and each other.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,764 ✭✭✭✭ Gael23


    I’m more interested in how we will treat the next virus to hit. Is a complete lockdown the standard response going forward now?

    This won’t happen again in the lifetime of anyone reading this post.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,289 ✭✭✭✭ banie01


    The herd is thinned, the weak and immuno compromised die and the strong survive and thrive with more space and resources for fewer healthier people! ;)

    That's the Darwinist answer, it's not what I believe.
    If there is no viable vaccine, the simple truth is we will adapt because we have to.

    The adaptations needed to ensure low transmission are not all that onerous tbh.
    Travel will be hardest hit, but that's not necessarily a bad thing.

    Masks and a little consideration of hygiene and distance, again not a huge ask.

    Economically, it will drive a seachange in personal service and hospitality industries that will cause hardship.

    Similar impact on education and any business or establishment/School/factory that is modelled on the prior spacings and norms.

    I was out in a local fairly large shopping centre today, the numbers of people not wearing masks was quite worrying IMO.
    It was quite busy and I'd put the number wearing masks at 10-15%

    There is a very complacent majority that think this is over, that we can revert and return to normal service.

    It's not, and dropping our guard will bite us hard if we all don't take steps.
    Think of it as not keeping ourselves virus free, but those we care about.


  • Registered Users Posts: 736 ✭✭✭ Das Reich


    banie01 wrote: »
    The herd is thinned, the weak and immuno compromised die and the strong survive and thrive with more space and resources for fewer healthier people! ;)

    That's the Darwinist answer, it's not what I believe.
    If there is no viable vaccine, the simple truth is we will adapt because we have to.

    The adaptations needed to ensure low transmission are not all that onerous tbh.
    Travel will be hardest hit, but that's not necessarily a bad thing.

    Masks and a little consideration of hygiene and distance, again not a huge ask.

    Economically, it will drive a seachange in personal service and hospitality industries that will cause hardship.

    Similar impact on education and any business or establishment/School/factory that is modelled on the prior spacings and norms.

    I was out in a local fairly large shopping centre today, the numbers of people not wearing masks was quite worrying IMO.
    It was quite busy and I'd put the number wearing masks at 10-15%

    There is a very complacent majority that think this is over, that we can revert and return to normal service.

    It's not, and dropping our guard will bite us hard if we all don't take steps.
    Think of it as not keeping ourselves virus free, but those we care about.

    That's what happened in Milan in 1629 to 1631. During the black death 300 years before, Milan was the European city with the lowest deaths numbers, in other European cities like Hamburg or London 60% of the population perished. Milan instead closed the borders completely, the results arrived 300 years later.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1629%E2%80%931631_Italian_plague


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,609 ✭✭✭✭ MadYaker




  • Registered Users Posts: 14,289 ✭✭✭✭ banie01


    Das Reich wrote: »
    That's what happened in Milan in 1629 to 1631. During the black death 300 years before, Milan was the European city with the lowest deaths numbers, in other European cities like Hamburg or London 60% of the population perished. Milan instead closed the borders completely, the results arrived 300 years later.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1629%E2%80%931631_Italian_plague

    If only there could be an alternative explanation as to why a large city state didn't see the same economic growth and benefits that came from being a large city or capital of a centralised state?

    Rather than a city in region contested over multiple wars and changes of rulers?
    A city in a region of City states constantly competing with one another and excluded from the economic growth northern Europe experienced on foot of both the industrial revolution and colonisation and incipient globalisation?
    A city that didn't actually become part of a centralised nation until the mid 19th century and even then was quite contested by France/Italy and Austria-Hungary?
    Those amongst a myriad other reasons all had far greater impact on Milanese development than did the 1629 plague outbreak.

    That said, if you'd care to share your own thesis rather than a link?
    I'd love to hear it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,649 ✭✭✭ cooperguy


    Gael23 wrote: »
    If none of these vaccines make it to mass production, we cannot keep this up forever, travel must resume and kids need to go to school among many other things.
    What happens in that event?

    There is more than just vaccination being worked on. Lots of drugs and drig cocktails are showing promise in treating the disease. If COVID spreading through a country ends up looking like a bad flu season, then we would still go back close to what was normal before (but probably with more hand washing etiquette etc.)
    I’m more interested in how we will treat the next virus to hit. Is a complete lockdown the standard response going forward now?

    It wont be. South Korea has shown how a prepared atate with a proper action olan can limit the soread of the virus. It took them being hit hard by SARS a decade or 2 ago to put those procedures in place. Only the most reckless of governments will ignore the lessons learned from this time around. Lockdown will only occur in cases of something particularly deadly spreading.
    Gael23 wrote: »
    This won’t happen again in the lifetime of anyone reading this post.

    There's no guarantee of that whatsoever.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭ Away With The Fairies


    I’m more interested in how we will treat the next virus to hit. Is a complete lockdown the standard response going forward now?

    I suppose this will depend on how contagious it is. With SARS people weren't contagious until they showed symptoms, so it was easier to isolate those patients and isolate their contacts and prevent further spread.

    With Covid, people are contagious before showing symptoms. That makes things much harder, so we needed restrictions to slow down the spread.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 443 ✭✭ Hairy Japanese BASTARDS!


    If people don't be a dick and wear their masks and practice social distancing and don't piss around pubs will we ever return to the way things were?

    Or will facemasks be recommended for the rest of our lives?

    Will those Perspex screens remain forever in shops?

    Will social distancing queues be a permanent thing?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 72,066 ✭✭✭✭ Atlantic Dawn


    Will be years of this.

    Doesn't matter how good or bad Ireland handles it, once our borders are open and the virus exists it's never ending.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,440 ✭✭✭ Azatadine




  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,165 timmy_mallet


    No. And I'd be more concerned with a global unemployment rate of 40% next year than I would of covid19. Imagine the far right lunacy that will come to power in the wake of that.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 59 ✭✭✭ Granny Smyth


    This is the new normal. And I think its only the beginning. Masks, hand sanitising, queues, periodic lockdowns and timed meals/outings are all things we will have to learn to live with. The worst thing is that in a years time it will be second nature and we will forget how carefree we used to be.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,096 ✭✭✭ Oops!


    There's some very dangerous precedents being set lately....


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,355 ✭✭✭✭ Hello 2D Person Below


    We may all be offering thanks and praise to the humble llama.

    https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/covid-19-llama-based-antibody-treatment-neutralises-virus/


    I think face masks will become more commonplace as people will still see them as a precaution. I very much doubt we'll ever get to parts of Asia levels of usage but I think they're here to stay in some capacity.

    I also suspect hand sanitising stations will remain in supermarkets and other such places.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,593 ✭✭✭ saabsaab


    Covid 19 or another virus was coming sometime. Increasing population, mass flights to all corners of the earth, no screens in public offices, denser housing and open plan offices all help to increase the risk. In other words the way the modern world has been going for 50 years have led to this and perhaps worse to come.


    Maybe things should go back to the way it was before at least in ways that can be done.


  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 17,590 Mod ✭✭✭✭ ixoy


    Yes, I believe we will albeit not for a while. There's always been turbulent periods in history where people didn't believe things would ever go back to sanity again but they did and often, in the end, civilization became stronger. It's very hard to see it when it's happening sure but it has ultimately only been a few months yet even if it seems like years.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 443 ✭✭ Hairy Japanese BASTARDS!


    ixoy wrote: »
    Yes, I believe we will albeit not for a while. There's always been turbulent periods in history where people didn't believe things would ever go back to sanity again but they did and often, in the end, civilization became stronger. It's very hard to see it when it's happening sure but it has ultimately only been a few months yet even if it seems like years.

    Could the virus run out of hosts just like the Spanish flu did?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,165 timmy_mallet


    saabsaab wrote: »
    Covid 19 or another virus was coming sometime. Increasing population, mass flights to all corners of the earth, no screens in public offices, denser housing and open plan offices all help to increase the risk. In other words the way the modern world has been going for 50 years have led to this and perhaps worse to come.


    Maybe things should go back to the way it was before at least in ways that can be done.

    Back to the trenches perhaps? Who needs social mobility, technology advancement? Just sit around waiting to die?

    Amazing the Spanish flu happened without those conditions though


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,814 ✭✭✭ Tea drinker


    Oops! wrote: »
    There's some very dangerous precedents being set lately....
    Well that could be wrt anything, personal hygiene for example. Can you expand on what you mean?


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,058 ✭✭✭ Dr. Bre


    Workplaces will change. A lot more will remain working home. Why would companies pay high rents when their staff can work from home. Rush hour maybe a thing of the past . Most wont miss it


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,165 timmy_mallet


    Could the virus run out of hosts just like the Spanish flu did?

    No, because we are cleaner and can work from home. Increase ICU capacity, deal with the death, and get on with it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,391 ✭✭✭✭ Stark


    This is not the first pandemic in history. Look back and you'll find people expressing the same frustrations with measures put in place to control the spread at the time. Things have always returned to normal and that was back when we didn't know as much about developing vaccines as we do now.

    Not long from now, some summer night, we will see our friends again.

    Oops, sorry, just plagiarized Leo. No, wait, Dermot Kennedy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,044 ✭✭✭✭ Utopia Parkway


    Over 50 million dropped dead to the Spanish flu and things returned to normal. And those were mainly young people in the primes of their lives.

    So yes things will return to normal. We just don’t know when exactly.


  • Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 62,376 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭ Beasty


    Threads merged


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭ snotboogie


    banie01 wrote: »
    The herd is thinned, the weak and immuno compromised die and the strong survive and thrive with more space and resources for fewer healthier people! ;)

    That's the Darwinist answer, it's not what I believe.
    If there is no viable vaccine, the simple truth is we will adapt because we have to.

    The adaptations needed to ensure low transmission are not all that onerous tbh.
    Travel will be hardest hit, but that's not necessarily a bad thing.

    Masks and a little consideration of hygiene and distance, again not a huge ask.

    Economically, it will drive a seachange in personal service and hospitality industries that will cause hardship.

    Similar impact on education and any business or establishment/School/factory that is modelled on the prior spacings and norms.

    I was out in a local fairly large shopping centre today, the numbers of people not wearing masks was quite worrying IMO.
    It was quite busy and I'd put the number wearing masks at 10-15%

    There is a very complacent majority that think this is over, that we can revert and return to normal service.

    It's not, and dropping our guard will bite us hard if we all don't take steps.
    Think of it as not keeping ourselves virus free, but those we care about.

    Couldn't agree less. I'd love to know how keeping 2 metres away from everyone not in your household is not onerous. Only 30 and 40 somethings who's life revolves around the kids and their direct family not remembering what their own lives were like 20 and 30 years before are spouting this crap.


  • Registered Users Posts: 112 ✭✭ PaybackPayroll


    Could the virus run out of hosts just like the Spanish flu did?

    Was it possible to be re-inflected with Spanish flu if you recovered the first time?

    Maybe Coronavirus can keep re-infecting people. If that's the case well it wont ever run out of hosts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,746 ✭✭✭ growleaves


    This is the new normal. And I think its only the beginning. Masks, hand sanitising, queues, periodic lockdowns and timed meals/outings are all things we will have to learn to live with. The worst thing is that in a years time it will be second nature and we will forget how carefree we used to be.

    It'll never be second nature and I think many are in denial about the way in which distancing abolishes life itself. How do people form new families if they can't meet new people or get more than 2m close to them? Let alone keep a modern economy going.

    Meanwhile back in reality the CDC now estimates the Infection Fatality Rate at 0.05%. Seasonal flu is 0.02% and that is the proportionate comparison, not medieval plagues which almost wiped out entire populations.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,301 ✭✭✭ joseywhales


    Gael23 wrote: »
    This won’t happen again in the lifetime of anyone reading this post.

    I think that is unlikely, the population continues to grow, for now. The population continues to age also. Farming becomes more intense. The environment continues to be destroyed. I think it's fairly likely.


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