What if no Vaccines work?

Gael23

If none of these vaccines make it to mass production, we cannot keep this up forever, travel must resume and kids need to go to school among many other things.
What happens in that event?

Heart Break Kid

I’m more interested in how we will treat the next virus to hit. Is a complete lockdown the standard response going forward now?

rtron

Gael23 wrote: »

What happens in that event?

We rethink and change the monitary, educational and religious structures to work around the virus and the challenges it brings. And learn to live in harmony with the universe and each other.

Gael23

Heart Break Kid wrote: »

I’m more interested in how we will treat the next virus to hit. Is a complete lockdown the standard response going forward now?

This won’t happen again in the lifetime of anyone reading this post.

banie01

The herd is thinned, the weak and immuno compromised die and the strong survive and thrive with more space and resources for fewer healthier people!

That's the Darwinist answer, it's not what I believe.
If there is no viable vaccine, the simple truth is we will adapt because we have to.

The adaptations needed to ensure low transmission are not all that onerous tbh.
Travel will be hardest hit, but that's not necessarily a bad thing.

Masks and a little consideration of hygiene and distance, again not a huge ask.

Economically, it will drive a seachange in personal service and hospitality industries that will cause hardship.

Similar impact on education and any business or establishment/School/factory that is modelled on the prior spacings and norms.

I was out in a local fairly large shopping centre today, the numbers of people not wearing masks was quite worrying IMO.
It was quite busy and I'd put the number wearing masks at 10-15%

There is a very complacent majority that think this is over, that we can revert and return to normal service.

It's not, and dropping our guard will bite us hard if we all don't take steps.
Think of it as not keeping ourselves virus free, but those we care about.

Das Reich

banie01 wrote: »

The herd is thinned, the weak and immuno compromised die and the strong survive and thrive with more space and resources for fewer healthier people!

That's the Darwinist answer, it's not what I believe.
If there is no viable vaccine, the simple truth is we will adapt because we have to.

The adaptations needed to ensure low transmission are not all that onerous tbh.
Travel will be hardest hit, but that's not necessarily a bad thing.

Masks and a little consideration of hygiene and distance, again not a huge ask.

Economically, it will drive a seachange in personal service and hospitality industries that will cause hardship.

Similar impact on education and any business or establishment/School/factory that is modelled on the prior spacings and norms.

I was out in a local fairly large shopping centre today, the numbers of people not wearing masks was quite worrying IMO.
It was quite busy and I'd put the number wearing masks at 10-15%

There is a very complacent majority that think this is over, that we can revert and return to normal service.

It's not, and dropping our guard will bite us hard if we all don't take steps.
Think of it as not keeping ourselves virus free, but those we care about.

That's what happened in Milan in 1629 to 1631. During the black death 300 years before, Milan was the European city with the lowest deaths numbers, in other European cities like Hamburg or London 60% of the population perished. Milan instead closed the borders completely, the results arrived 300 years later.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1629%E2%80%931631_Italian_plague

MadYaker

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058062347

Theres already a thread for this.

banie01

Das Reich wrote: »

That's what happened in Milan in 1629 to 1631. During the black death 300 years before, Milan was the European city with the lowest deaths numbers, in other European cities like Hamburg or London 60% of the population perished. Milan instead closed the borders completely, the results arrived 300 years later.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1629%E2%80%931631_Italian_plague

If only there could be an alternative explanation as to why a large city state didn't see the same economic growth and benefits that came from being a large city or capital of a centralised state?

Rather than a city in region contested over multiple wars and changes of rulers?
A city in a region of City states constantly competing with one another and excluded from the economic growth northern Europe experienced on foot of both the industrial revolution and colonisation and incipient globalisation?
A city that didn't actually become part of a centralised nation until the mid 19th century and even then was quite contested by France/Italy and Austria-Hungary?
Those amongst a myriad other reasons all had far greater impact on Milanese development than did the 1629 plague outbreak.

That said, if you'd care to share your own thesis rather than a link?
I'd love to hear it.

cooperguy

Gael23 wrote: »

If none of these vaccines make it to mass production, we cannot keep this up forever, travel must resume and kids need to go to school among many other things.
What happens in that event?

There is more than just vaccination being worked on. Lots of drugs and drig cocktails are showing promise in treating the disease. If COVID spreading through a country ends up looking like a bad flu season, then we would still go back close to what was normal before (but probably with more hand washing etiquette etc.)

Heart Break Kid wrote: »

I’m more interested in how we will treat the next virus to hit. Is a complete lockdown the standard response going forward now?

It wont be. South Korea has shown how a prepared atate with a proper action olan can limit the soread of the virus. It took them being hit hard by SARS a decade or 2 ago to put those procedures in place. Only the most reckless of governments will ignore the lessons learned from this time around. Lockdown will only occur in cases of something particularly deadly spreading.

Gael23 wrote: »

This won’t happen again in the lifetime of anyone reading this post.

There's no guarantee of that whatsoever.

Away With The Fairies

Heart Break Kid wrote: »

I’m more interested in how we will treat the next virus to hit. Is a complete lockdown the standard response going forward now?

I suppose this will depend on how contagious it is. With SARS people weren't contagious until they showed symptoms, so it was easier to isolate those patients and isolate their contacts and prevent further spread.

With Covid, people are contagious before showing symptoms. That makes things much harder, so we needed restrictions to slow down the spread.

Hairy Japanese BASTARDS!

If people don't be a dick and wear their masks and practice social distancing and don't piss around pubs will we ever return to the way things were?

Or will facemasks be recommended for the rest of our lives?

Will those Perspex screens remain forever in shops?

Will social distancing queues be a permanent thing?

Atlantic Dawn

Will be years of this.

Doesn't matter how good or bad Ireland handles it, once our borders are open and the virus exists it's never ending.

Azatadine

Oxford vaccine holding real promise. More details to come.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/news/3591642-oxford-vaccine-produces-double-defence-against-sars-covminus-2

timmy_mallet

No. And I'd be more concerned with a global unemployment rate of 40% next year than I would of covid19. Imagine the far right lunacy that will come to power in the wake of that.

Granny Smyth

This is the new normal. And I think its only the beginning. Masks, hand sanitising, queues, periodic lockdowns and timed meals/outings are all things we will have to learn to live with. The worst thing is that in a years time it will be second nature and we will forget how carefree we used to be.

Oops!

There's some very dangerous precedents being set lately....

We may all be offering thanks and praise to the humble llama.

https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/covid-19-llama-based-antibody-treatment-neutralises-virus/


I think face masks will become more commonplace as people will still see them as a precaution. I very much doubt we'll ever get to parts of Asia levels of usage but I think they're here to stay in some capacity.

I also suspect hand sanitising stations will remain in supermarkets and other such places.

saabsaab

Covid 19 or another virus was coming sometime. Increasing population, mass flights to all corners of the earth, no screens in public offices, denser housing and open plan offices all help to increase the risk. In other words the way the modern world has been going for 50 years have led to this and perhaps worse to come.


Maybe things should go back to the way it was before at least in ways that can be done.

ixoy

Yes, I believe we will albeit not for a while. There's always been turbulent periods in history where people didn't believe things would ever go back to sanity again but they did and often, in the end, civilization became stronger. It's very hard to see it when it's happening sure but it has ultimately only been a few months yet even if it seems like years.

Hairy Japanese BASTARDS!

ixoy wrote: »

Yes, I believe we will albeit not for a while. There's always been turbulent periods in history where people didn't believe things would ever go back to sanity again but they did and often, in the end, civilization became stronger. It's very hard to see it when it's happening sure but it has ultimately only been a few months yet even if it seems like years.

Could the virus run out of hosts just like the Spanish flu did?

timmy_mallet

saabsaab wrote: »

Covid 19 or another virus was coming sometime. Increasing population, mass flights to all corners of the earth, no screens in public offices, denser housing and open plan offices all help to increase the risk. In other words the way the modern world has been going for 50 years have led to this and perhaps worse to come.


Maybe things should go back to the way it was before at least in ways that can be done.

Back to the trenches perhaps? Who needs social mobility, technology advancement? Just sit around waiting to die?

Amazing the Spanish flu happened without those conditions though

Tea drinker

Oops! wrote: »

There's some very dangerous precedents being set lately....

Well that could be wrt anything, personal hygiene for example. Can you expand on what you mean?

Dr. Bre

Workplaces will change. A lot more will remain working home. Why would companies pay high rents when their staff can work from home. Rush hour maybe a thing of the past . Most wont miss it

timmy_mallet

Hairy Japanese BASTARDS! wrote: »

Could the virus run out of hosts just like the Spanish flu did?

No, because we are cleaner and can work from home. Increase ICU capacity, deal with the death, and get on with it.

Stark

This is not the first pandemic in history. Look back and you'll find people expressing the same frustrations with measures put in place to control the spread at the time. Things have always returned to normal and that was back when we didn't know as much about developing vaccines as we do now.

Not long from now, some summer night, we will see our friends again.

Oops, sorry, just plagiarized Leo. No, wait, Dermot Kennedy.

Utopia Parkway

Over 50 million dropped dead to the Spanish flu and things returned to normal. And those were mainly young people in the primes of their lives.

So yes things will return to normal. We just don’t know when exactly.

Beasty

Threads merged

snotboogie

banie01 wrote: »

The herd is thinned, the weak and immuno compromised die and the strong survive and thrive with more space and resources for fewer healthier people!

That's the Darwinist answer, it's not what I believe.
If there is no viable vaccine, the simple truth is we will adapt because we have to.

The adaptations needed to ensure low transmission are not all that onerous tbh.
Travel will be hardest hit, but that's not necessarily a bad thing.

Masks and a little consideration of hygiene and distance, again not a huge ask.

Economically, it will drive a seachange in personal service and hospitality industries that will cause hardship.

Similar impact on education and any business or establishment/School/factory that is modelled on the prior spacings and norms.

I was out in a local fairly large shopping centre today, the numbers of people not wearing masks was quite worrying IMO.
It was quite busy and I'd put the number wearing masks at 10-15%

There is a very complacent majority that think this is over, that we can revert and return to normal service.

It's not, and dropping our guard will bite us hard if we all don't take steps.
Think of it as not keeping ourselves virus free, but those we care about.

Couldn't agree less. I'd love to know how keeping 2 metres away from everyone not in your household is not onerous. Only 30 and 40 somethings who's life revolves around the kids and their direct family not remembering what their own lives were like 20 and 30 years before are spouting this crap.

PaybackPayroll

Hairy Japanese BASTARDS! wrote: »

Could the virus run out of hosts just like the Spanish flu did?

Was it possible to be re-inflected with Spanish flu if you recovered the first time?

Maybe Coronavirus can keep re-infecting people. If that's the case well it wont ever run out of hosts.

growleaves

Granny Smyth wrote: »

This is the new normal. And I think its only the beginning. Masks, hand sanitising, queues, periodic lockdowns and timed meals/outings are all things we will have to learn to live with. The worst thing is that in a years time it will be second nature and we will forget how carefree we used to be.

It'll never be second nature and I think many are in denial about the way in which distancing abolishes life itself. How do people form new families if they can't meet new people or get more than 2m close to them? Let alone keep a modern economy going.

Meanwhile back in reality the CDC now estimates the Infection Fatality Rate at 0.05%. Seasonal flu is 0.02% and that is the proportionate comparison, not medieval plagues which almost wiped out entire populations.

joseywhales

Gael23 wrote: »

This won’t happen again in the lifetime of anyone reading this post.

I think that is unlikely, the population continues to grow, for now. The population continues to age also. Farming becomes more intense. The environment continues to be destroyed. I think it's fairly likely.

Del Griffith

PaybackPayroll wrote: »

Was it possible to be re-inflected with Spanish flu if you recovered the first time?

Maybe Coronavirus can keep re-infecting people. If that's the case well it wont ever run out of hosts.

Maybe it'll turn into a monster that fires bees out of its mouth and shoots lasers out of its eyes? What if what if what if

At least we have one thing we know that stops it in its tracks, a €9 meal

People talking about it changing the future or our social interactions are over-reacting. Vietnam is completely back to normal after close to 100% mask usage three months ago. It took around a week for it to swing back to what life felt like in 2019.

You don't just change society like that. Everyone will go back to normal. People won't be wearing masks in Ireland or social distancing after Covid is gone.

Pauliedragon

Gael23 wrote: »

This won’t happen again in the lifetime of anyone reading this post.

If I said to you a year ago the country would effectively be shut down because somebody in a place called Wuhan ate a bat you probably would have told me to see a shrink. I wouldn't be sure of anything these days.

Gael23

Gael23 wrote: »

This won’t happen again in the lifetime of anyone reading this post.

On the balance of probability it wont happen in our lifetime, but mutations of viruses into pathogens that can infect humans do not operate on a timetable. The next one could just as easily come next year or not for 100 years

hmmm

Deleted User wrote: »

On the balance of probability it wont happen in our lifetime, but mutations of viruses into pathogens that can infect humans do not operate on a timetable. The next one could just as easily come next year or not for 100 years

We've had 3 new coronaviruses emerge from animals into humans in the past 20 years (SARS, MERS, SARS2).

Unfortunately it probably will. However our toolbox next time around will be much stronger, and we will hopefully have several new vaccines we can retarget at whatever emerges.

snotboogie

Deleted User wrote: »

People talking about it changing the future or our social interactions are over-reacting. Vietnam is completely back to normal after close to 100% mask usage three months ago. It took around a week for it to swing back to what life felt like in 2019.

You don't just change society like that. Everyone will go back to normal. People won't be wearing masks in Ireland or social distancing after Covid is gone.

Vietnam are back to normal because they pursued a zero Covid policy. The one many on this forum are rallying against for Ireland.

The three outcomes are:

(i) Vaccine saves the day and the world slowly goes back to normal sometime in 2021 or 2022
(ii) "The new normal" which is long term social distancing and rolling regional lockdowns for 10+ years. Masks and washing hands do not in anyway compare to social distancing, long term social distancing would be the biggest change to human society in generations.
(iii) Go for the Covid Free Island where things will be back to normal in Q4.

The big danger with option 3 is that a vaccine will come out a few months after and the whole effort will have been worthless. One thing is for sure, we cannot just ignore the virus and go back to normal. Even the most fervent anti lockdown politicians in the US South have been humbled by Covid in the last month

MOH

snotboogie wrote: »

Couldn't agree less. I'd love to know how keeping 2 metres away from everyone not in your household is not onerous. Only 30 and 40 somethings who's life revolves around the kids and their direct family not remembering what their own lives were like 20 and 30 years before are spouting this crap.

When they were between 0 and 20?

I'd love to see what your definition of "onerous" is.

growleaves

One thing is for sure, we cannot just ignore the virus and go back to normal.

Lol do you honestly think 10 years of enforced social isolation and life in a semi-permanent prison state are more practical than living with covid?

It is psychotic dishonesty that is the real affliction.

Thousands of lies have been told since March, when people were talking about death rates of 4-7% and millions of corpses.

Covid has been fifty-fold less deadly than officially predicted, including in states that didn't lock down.

Cancelling human life and crawling into a hole is a choice - a wrong and evil choice.

ACitizenErased

I think we’re getting to the stage now in vaccine development where this scenario is becoming incredibly unlikely.

hmmm

growleaves wrote: »

Covid has been fifty-fold less deadly than officially predicted, including in states that didn't lock down.

Just a reminder that this of course is not true. Was it you that also claimed the CDC had a .05% IFR for Covid?

D.Q

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I think we’re getting to the stage now in vaccine development where this scenario is becoming incredibly unlikely.

yeah the concern now seems to have shifted to scaling the production up, they seem confident enough it will work from what I've been reading about the oxford one.

growleaves

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I think we’re getting to the stage now in vaccine development where this scenario is becoming incredibly unlikely.

You're probably right but in any case I think it's important people understand that a) the government are not gaolers and b) collective suicide is wrong

growleaves

In my above post, 0.05 s/b 0.5 and 0.02 s/b 0.2.

The CDC estimate ifr between 0.2-1% with "best estimate" of 0.5%. That was revised downwards from a higher estimate in mid-April.

snotboogie

MOH wrote: »

When they were between 0 and 20?

I'd love to see what your definition of "onerous" is.

Come on, no need to be pedantic. I said people in their 30's and 40's, not people who are 30.

Children, teenagers and people in their 20's spend a lot of time meeting new people. It is an absolutely essential part of that stage of life for most people. The idea that remote learning for college, or phased access to classrooms for schoolchildren is not onerous is a joke.

In your non onerous world; teenage discos are gone, Irish College is gone, every student in every bar in the country has to keep 1-2 metres away from those not in a pre approved list of friends, there will be rolling shutdowns of all contact sports (as we are seeing with GAA now, I'm skeptical that any contact sport will be allowed in a "new normal" once things settle down), full attendances in Croke Park and Lansdowne Road are gone (18k is being touted as the max socially distanced capacity), making new friends at your first job in the office is gone.

Onerous is changing the entire social fabric of human society. Which is what the "new normal" is; no more full classrooms, no more full lecture halls, no more full bars, no more full stadiums, no more full offices, no more full conferences.

I hope people actually wake up to this. We are not going back to normal until there is a vaccine or a covid free Island.

growleaves wrote: »

Lol do you honestly think 10 years of enforced social isolation and life in a semi-permanent prison state are more practical than living with covid?

It is psychotic dishonesty that is the real affliction.

Thousands of lies have been told since March, when people were talking about death rates of 4-7% and millions of corpses.

Covid has been fifty-fold less deadly than officially predicted, including in states that didn't lock down.

Cancelling human life and crawling into a hole is a choice - a wrong and evil choice.

I never said that Nobody is proposing 10 years of enforced isolation. Its 10 years of living with the virus, which is basically keeping things as they are now for 10 years. I obviously think that this is the worst option.

growleaves wrote: »

In my above post, 0.05 s/b 0.5 and 0.02 s/b 0.2.

The CDC estimate ifr between 0.2-1% with "best estimate" of 0.5%. That was revised downwards from a higher estimate in mid-April.

Epidemiologists have speculated .5% since March. The seasonal flu is .1%, so Covid is about 5 times more deadly.

SeaBreezes

growleaves wrote: »

In my above post, 0.05 s/b 0.5 and 0.02 s/b 0.2.

The CDC estimate ifr between 0.2-1% with "best estimate" of 0.5%. That was revised downwards from a higher estimate in mid-April.

https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1283394794375569408

is_that_so

SeaBreezes wrote: »

https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1283394794375569408

I don't think the IFR tells us an awful lot in this case. The numbers that end up in hospital and how long they stay there is a far more useful metric.

Oops!

A quick question... How many people here have had/known somebody with the virus? I know i'm in a rural area but their has'nt seem to have been a case of it here in a 30k radius.....

yosemitesam1

growleaves wrote: »

In my above post, 0.05 s/b 0.5 and 0.02 s/b 0.2.

The CDC estimate ifr between 0.2-1% with "best estimate" of 0.5%. That was revised downwards from a higher estimate in mid-April.

In reality it will be lower still, when taking account of the significant proportion of people who won't generate specific blood antibodies

hmmm

Oops! wrote: »

A quick question... How many people here have had/known somebody with the virus? I know i'm in a rural area but their has'nt seem to have been a case of it here in a 30k radius.....

If you haven't seen it already, stats have been published by electoral area.
https://census.cso.ie/covid19/

Some rural enough areas with lots of cases - meatplants I'm guessing?

growleaves

Oops! wrote: »

A quick question... How many people here have had/known somebody with the virus? I know i'm in a rural area but their has'nt seem to have been a case of it here in a 30k radius.....

I don't know anyone, except a new acquaintance I was introduced to for all of five seconds. She is 86, picked it up in a Dublin hospital where she was being treated for two other serious conditions and recovered fully.