How long before Irish reunification? (Part 2) Threadbans in OP

Fionn1952

maestroamado wrote: »

I am agreeing with you as what you posted was more or less what i see happeming at this moment in time...

But the conversation was nothing to do with what is happening at this moment in time.....the conversation was a hypothetical situation in which unification is voted for in the 6 counties and rejected in the 26. It by definition can't be what is happening at this moment in time.

This is incredibly frustrating. It genuinely doesn't seem like you're actually reading any of the posts you're replying to.

Fionn1952

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

Can you two please stop arguing with each other about how you agree with each other ?

I wish I could tell what he was agreeing I said. I haven't been able to follow a thing. Almost as bad as the last time I was down in Dingle.

maestroamado

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

Can you two please stop arguing with each other about how you agree with each other ?

I think every opinion valid but i do not agree with everyone.

Junkyard Tom

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

Where would it leave them though if following a border poll in favour of leaving the Union, adoption of the northern six were rejected by Ireland ?

The question is: 'where would that leave people in the south', as I'm sure those in the north would claim to be the rightful inheritors of our country.

Junkyard Tom

Good stuff. Now the British government needs to align itself with us in the EU if it wants to ease the situation in the northeast of Ireland.

downcow

Watching the vaccine thing develop, I can understand why Roi residents would want to join OWC, But surely we can all agree that it would be decreasing the number of OWC residents who would want to join Roi
I know ireland, tied to Eu, had a very difficult start to the process, but it seems to be getting worse and more shambolic by the day.
Ni has upped its game further moving from 7,000 a day to a consistent 12,000 a day, while Roi have slowed further significantly.
The average this week sees
Ni vaccinating 1 in every 150 people per day
Roi vaccinating 1 in every 650 people per day.
What is going on? And what impact do you think this will have on moderate nationalists view on unifying the island?

Natterjack from Kerry

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The question is: 'where would that leave people in the south', as I'm sure those in the north would claim to be the rightful inheritors of our country.

It would leave the people in the south exactly where they are - a 26 county republic. What a small minority of those in the north still in the UK might claim, wouldnt change the fact, nor matter at all to those in the south. The south has long ago left behind, any interest in these type of mental gymnastics about identity claims.

The double poll format does give unionists a chance to campaign in the south for reunification rejection.

maestroamado

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Good stuff. Now the British government needs to align itself with us in the EU if it wants to ease the situation in the northeast of Ireland.[/quote

I did not think this be sorted so quickly, If custom checks for Ireland in Belfast/Larne I expect NI border disappeared automatically in time. Likely easiest solution.

downcow

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

It would leave the people in the south exactly where they are - a 26 county republic. What a small minority of those in the north still in the UK might claim, wouldnt change the fact, nor matter at all to those in the south. The south has long ago left behind, any interest in these type of mental gymnastics about identity claims.

The double poll format does give unionists a chance to campaign in the south for reunification rejection.

I wonder about the sequencing of any polls.
No point in having one in south until outcome of one in north.
You raise a good point. If north voted to leave then unionists could campaign against Roi yes vote.

More disturbing is that loyalist paramilitaries would see a very small window to affect the vote once and for all in that scenario.
If I try to get inside their heads, would they not want to mount a ‘shock and awe’ campaign over the days leading up to a Roi vote? Would they not hit Roi voters very hard with bombs and bullets? Wanting to give them a sample of what life would be like in a unified island. Omagh type bombs and loughinisland type gun attacks.

What do people think? Why would they not?

BonnieSituation

downcow wrote: »

I wonder about the sequencing of any polls.
No point in having one in south until outcome of one in north.
You raise a good point. If north voted to leave then unionists could campaign against Roi yes vote.

More disturbing is that loyalist paramilitaries would see a very small window to affect the vote once and for all in that scenario.
If I try to get inside their heads, would they not want to mount a ‘shock and awe’ campaign over the days leading up to a Roi vote? Would they not hit Roi voters very hard with bombs and bullets? Wanting to give them a sample of what life would be like in a unified island. Omagh type bombs and loughinisland type gun attacks.

What do people think? Why would they not?

Is this that famous demonstration of democracy you and other belligerent Unionists love to tell us all about?

Threats of violence even after a democratic majority vote for a certain outcome.

I find it fascinating that you'd think that loyalists would interfere in a referendum in a foreign country, as you guys are so wont to put it. A tad hypocritical? Non?

Catch yourself on.

maestroamado

downcow wrote: »

I wonder about the sequencing of any polls.
No point in having one in south until outcome of one in north.
You raise a good point. If north voted to leave then unionists could campaign against Roi yes vote.

More disturbing is that loyalist paramilitaries would see a very small window to affect the vote once and for all in that scenario.
If I try to get inside their heads, would they not want to mount a ‘shock and awe’ campaign over the days leading up to a Roi vote? Would they not hit Roi voters very hard with bombs and bullets? Wanting to give them a sample of what life would be like in a unified island. Omagh type bombs and loughinisland type gun attacks.

What do people think? Why would they not?

Why would we need a vote here?
Isn't it in our constitution NI belong to us.
Personally i thought the decision rested on result of vote.
The only thing i wondered if be just in NI or 32...
ould the Government at the time be able to

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

I wonder about the sequencing of any polls.
No point in having one in south until outcome of one in north.
You raise a good point. If north voted to leave then unionists could campaign against Roi yes vote.

More disturbing is that loyalist paramilitaries would see a very small window to affect the vote once and for all in that scenario.
If I try to get inside their heads, would they not want to mount a ‘shock and awe’ campaign over the days leading up to a Roi vote? Would they not hit Roi voters very hard with bombs and bullets? Wanting to give them a sample of what life would be like in a unified island. Omagh type bombs and loughinisland type gun attacks.

What do people think? Why would they not?

Has Edwin Poots and the DUP been making threats AGAIN?

FrancieBrady

maestroamado wrote: »

Why would we need a vote here?
Isn't it in our constitution NI belong to us.
Personally i thought the decision rested on result of vote.
The only thing i wondered if be just in NI or 32...
ould the Government at the time be able to

Technically we have already decided as we constitutionally aspire to unity, yes.

I expect somebody to take a test case on it. Partitionists won't be happy though.

king_gizzard

How bad will Brexit be? Are we far enough over the line with the shift from older dyed in the wool types to younger progressives? What way will the undecideds swing? Will the south even really want this once it's all planned and set out in front of them?

Depending on how everything shakes out, I could see a poll happening as soon as 5 years from now.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Technically we have already decided as we constitutionally aspire to unity, yes.

I expect somebody to take a test case on it. Partitionists won't be happy though.

Would you want a UI where the Republic needed to be forced into it?

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Would you want a UI where the Republic needed to be forced into it?

Explain 'forced'?

We constitutionally 'aspire' to unity as recently as the GFA.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Explain 'forced'?

We constitutionally 'aspire' to unity as recently as the GFA.

The GFA also says there will be concurrent Referendums on a UI. I get why you would like to force it given the poor showings in the last opinion poll (30% if there is any tax increase) but it's not gonna happen.

It would be the last throw of the dice for a desperate Republican movement if that was attempted.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

The GFA also says there will be concurrent Referendums on a UI. I get why you would like to force it given the poor showings in the last opinion poll (30% if there is any tax increase) but it's not gonna happen.

It would be the last throw of the dice for a desperate Republican movement if that was attempted.

KNOW YOUR AGREEMENT: The GFA says nothing about a referendum here, it only requires consent to be given 'concurrently'. There is no stipulation for a referendum to be held here.

(ii) recognise that it is for the people of the island of Ireland alone, by
agreement between the two parts respectively and without external
impediment, to exercise their right of self-determination on the basis of
consent, freely and concurrently given, North and South, to bring about a
united Ireland, if that is their wish, accepting that this right must be
achieved and exercised with and subject to the agreement and consent of a
majority of the people of Northern Ireland;

A Taoiseach here would be constitutionally correct to 'give consent' based on the constitution, which of course would be open to challenge.

I happen to believe a referendum should be held here, but that doesn't change the above fact.

Natterjack from Kerry

maestroamado wrote: »

Why would we need a vote here?
Isn't it in our constitution NI belong to us.
Personally i thought the decision rested on result of vote.
The only thing i wondered if be just in NI or 32...
ould the Government at the time be able to

It isn't in our constitution that it's belongs to the Republic.
Basically, the republic's position is, that should northern I vote to join the republic, the people of the republic will consider letting them join. If they agree to it, then the 6 counties can leave the UK and be part of Ireland again.
It's still hard to see it as a better position all considered than keeping it in the UK, giving people on the island, all see themselves as Irish, an option.

FrancieBrady

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

It isn't in our constitution that it's belongs to the Republic.
Basically, the republic's position is, that should northern I vote to join the republic, the people of the republic will consider letting them join. If they agree to it, then the 6 counties can leave the UK and be part of Ireland again.
It's still hard to see it as a better position all considered than keeping it in the UK, giving people on the island, all see themselves as Irish, an option.

Completely spurious read of the constitution.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

KNOW YOUR AGREEMENT: The GFA says nothing about a referendum here, it only requires consent to be given 'concurrently'. There is no stipulation for a referendum to be held here.



A Taoiseach here would be constitutionally correct to 'give consent' based on the constitution, which of course would be open to challenge.

I happen to believe a referendum should be held here, but that doesn't change the above fact.

Maybe but I can't see how the GFA could be legally used to prevent a referendum if the Government of the day want it. That's essentially the scenario, Republicans are afraid it won't pass so try and prevent it from happening.

Are you worried it is slipping away? Brexit and COVID have not led to a majority in NI wanting a UI and the South don't want to pay for it.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Maybe but I can't see how the GFA could be legally used to prevent a referendum if the Government of the day want it. That's essentially the scenario, Republicans are afraid it won't pass so try and prevent it from happening.

Are you worried it is slipping away? Brexit and COVID have not led to a majority in NI wanting a UI and the South don't want to pay for it.

Various people have made constitutional challenges over the years and a few have been made on the GFA, mostly by Unionists actually. McGimpsey's and Raymond McCord,

You missed my last sentence there jh79 in your excitement.

FrancieBrady wrote:

I happen to believe a referendum should be held here, but that doesn't change the above fact.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You missed my last sentence there jh79 in your excitement.

I didn't. The suggestion that someone might try to prevent a referendum and the bizarre celebration of the poll showing a majority wanting to remain in the UK makes me think you are worried it is slipping away.

I would be too, if Brexit and COVID can't convince the people of NI to join the Republic it would be reasonable to wonder if anything will.

Junkyard Tom

jh79 wrote: »

you are worried it is slipping away.

The issue of British misrule in Ireland will never 'slip away' until all of Ireland is under Irish jurisdiction.

Brexit has just shown that the British border in Ireland will be a perennial problem as long as its threat of division of the Irish nation remains.

jh79

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The issue of British misrule in Ireland will never 'slip away' until all of Ireland is under Irish jurisdiction.

Brexit has just shown that the British border in Ireland will be a perennial problem as long as its threat of division of the Irish nation remains.

The 47% (think that's right) majority who want to remain in the UK disagree.

If the issues around Brexit stabilize then there is really no hope for a UI. Brexit is the biggest thing to happen to NI since the GFA yet still the majority want to remain in the UK.

Junkyard Tom

jh79 wrote: »

The 47% (think that's right) majority who want to remain in the UK disagree.

If the issues around Brexit stabilize then there is really no hope for a UI. Brexit is the biggest thing to happen to NI since the GFA yet still the majority want to remain in the UK.

The issue of British misrule in Ireland will never 'slip away' until all of Ireland is under Irish jurisdiction.

Brexit has just shown that the British border in Ireland will be a perennial problem as long as its threat of division of the Irish nation remains.

grayzer75

jh79 wrote: »

The 47% (think that's right) majority who want to remain in the UK disagree.

If the issues around Brexit stabilize then there is really no hope for a UI. Brexit is the biggest thing to happen to NI since the GFA yet still the majority want to remain in the UK.

There's a sizeable young vote who will happily vote for a UI, these 15/16/17 year olds will vastly outnumber the knuckle dragging so-called 'loyalists' by the time they get to voting age / border poll time.

jh79

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The issue of British misrule in Ireland will never 'slip away' until all of Ireland is under Irish jurisdiction.

Brexit has just shown that the British border in Ireland will be a perennial problem as long as its threat of division of the Irish nation remains.

If it wasn't for Brexit there would be no talk of a border poll and even still the majority want to remain. Looks like Brexit will need to have major negative effects before they'll change their minds.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

I didn't. The suggestion that someone might try to prevent a referendum and the bizarre celebration of the poll showing a majority wanting to remain in the UK makes me think you are worried it is slipping away.

I would be too, if Brexit and COVID can't convince the people of NI to join the Republic it would be reasonable to wonder if anything will.

Nothing bizarre about it (constitutional challenges happen and are a good thing IMO in a democracy) and I didn't celebrate anything. I think the growing support for a UI is a good thing and I am happy it is happening though.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

If it wasn't for Brexit there would be no talk of a border poll and even still the majority want to remain. Looks like Brexit will need to have major negative effects before they'll change their minds.

Brexit hasn't fully happened yet. I wouldn't be so quick to think it is done. Nor has a proper debate (what Unionism fears most) on a UI started. To have support for a UI at that level given the circumstances is a huge encouragement IMO.