Off Topic Thread 5.0

awec

molloyjh wrote: »

Apparently the rise in cases began before schools went back. Be careful with the correlation/causation issue there...



Initially we were told there was no benefit to wearing a mask in order to protect ourselves from the virus. Subsequently we were told to wear a mask to stop ourselves from spreading the virus. The advice changed, but so did the rationale. This goes back to my previous point. People want short, snappy messages.

Don't wear a mask as it won't stop you contracting the virus becomes simply dont wear a mask.

Wear a mask to stop yourself from spreading the virus becomes wear a mask.

The abbreviated versions sound contradictory despite the fact that the statements themselves are not contradictory. More info was provided, but far too many people ignored it, taking only the bare minimum from the message.


This is very valid point, although it is also worth noting that no decision has been made so we aren't owed an explanation until one is. I'd hope it is provided, but I do think the current Gov have gotten the comms element of this badly, badly wrong thus far.

I think NPHET owe an explanation as to why their recommendation has changed so drastically in 3 days, whether it's implemented or not.

Neil3030

molloyjh wrote: »

You have got to be f-ing kidding me! That's a whole new level of incompetence right there. While Ireland are getting an app up and running that is being used around the world to trace C19 cases, the UK are using excel to track large numbers of things. Thats just bafflingly stupid.

All around Wales and Scotland, posters are no doubt being printed as we speak:

"Vote Yes for Independence: We won't keep your lab results in an Excel sheet"

molloyjh

awec wrote: »

I think NPHET owe an explanation as to why their recommendation has changed so drastically in 3 days, whether it's implemented or not.

Yeah maybe, but thats unlikely to happen, at least not with full disclosure. Remember NPHET will recommend action & the Gov will make a decision with that in mind, but not entirely based on that. They'll consider economic & social impacts etc too. So NPHET giving their rationale in the event that the Gov don't fully adopt their recommendation could undermine the Govs decision.

For example, NPHET decide on level 5 based on models showing that by mid Nov we end up with the hospitals being overrun. The Gov decide on level 4 based on economic & social factors. By late Nov the hospitals are overrun. The public then lash out at the Gov for not taking what NPHET said seriously enough. Or by late Nov we're still well within capacity (because of measures we took) and people wonder why NPHET were making the claims they were. Everything they say will be heavily scrutinised & thrown back in their face if at all possible. They need to be very careful with their statements.

Its an impossible position trying to model what they believe will happen & find the right balance between all the factors, knowing all the while that they have no control over what will or won't happen and so can never really be sure if they are making the right decisions. All the while the public are happy to second guess or judge with the benefit of hindsight anything that is decided, not decided, mentioned etc etc from a position of total security as they have no responsibility for the decisions. Its easy to say "do X" when if it does wrong you're not the one carrying the can. Its a very different matter being stuck in the middle of the whole thing knowing your decisions could literally be life or death decisions.

aloooof

sydthebeat wrote: »

we currently have 23 covid related cases in ICU out of a total of approx 300.

thats 8% of capacity currently

we had 354 ICU beds available back in april, ready for the surge that never happened.

Just to be clear, it's 8% of overall ICU capacity. Not Covid-capacity. This tweet goes into some of the rationale.

In total, 243 out of 281 critical care beds are currently occupied i.e. 86% capacity. I guess this, coupled with the acceleration of the numbers is the main driver.

I agree the messaging has been really poorly handled, mind...

https://twitter.com/Philip_Ryan/status/1313097460152139782

Burkie1203

awec wrote: »

I think NPHET owe an explanation as to why their recommendation has changed so drastically in 3 days, whether it's implemented or not.

Some messaging on govt websites regarding school or creches has been changed today

Buer

Burkie1203 wrote: »

Some messaging on govt websites regarding school or creches has been changed today

To say what? Link if possible, please?

Stheno

Buer wrote: »

To say what? Link if possible, please?

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/education/schools-could-close-under-level-5-restrictions-depending-on-precise-situation-as-teacher-unions-raise-concerns-39589671.html

Schools could close in level five depending on the precise situation

CMO says we need level five to keep schools open

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/news/31-covid-outbreaks-in-nursing-homes-as-holohan-warns-level-5-restrictions-needed-for-schools-to-stay-open-39589404.html

You actually couldn't make it up

Burkie1203

Buer wrote: »

To say what? Link if possible, please?

https://twitter.com/SeanDefoe/status/1313114499415769088?s=19

sydthebeat

aloooof wrote: »

Just to be clear, it's 8% of overall ICU capacity. Not Covid-capacity. This tweet goes into some of the rationale.

In total, 243 out of 281 critical care beds are currently occupied i.e. 86% capacity. I guess this, coupled with the acceleration of the numbers is the main driver.

I agree the messaging has been really poorly handled, mind...

https://twitter.com/Philip_Ryan/status/1313097460152139782

all i can see in that tweet is that that SPECIFIC VULNERABLE GROUPS have had increases in cases, which has lead to deaths and increase in hospital stress.

so why isnt the response specifically targeted??

they are making the very same mistakes again !!!!

edit: and just to echo a later tweet in that twitter thread...... there is noting in that announcement from NPHET which links teh increase to business and employment. They are all residential scenarios which are problematic.... nursing homes, over 65s, travellers and direct provision centers

errlloyd

Gavan Reilly reporting that the Government are proposing national level 3.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1313129524901675008?s=19

Tomtom364

When it comes to restrictions, information availability, government communication and such I find a very important thing must be kept in mind.

Anyone who has worked in retail or customer facing services, myself has it for 4 years in an airport, will know this.


Never, ever, underestimate how thick the general population can be.

Stheno

sydthebeat wrote: »

all i can see in that tweet is that that SPECIFIC VULNERABLE GROUPS have had increases in cases, which has lead to deaths and increase in hospital stress.

so why isnt the response specifically targeted??

they are making the very same mistakes again !!!!

Agreed, its a bit nuts

irishbucsfan

Tomtom364 wrote: »

When it comes to restrictions, information availability, government communication and such I find a very important thing must be kept in mind.

Anyone who has worked in retail or customer facing services, myself has it for 4 years in an airport, will know this.


Never, ever, underestimate how thick the general population can be.

I don’t think they’re thick. They just don’t care

aloooof

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I don’t think they’re thick. They just don’t care

There's room for both!

sydthebeat

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I don’t think they’re thick. They just don’t care

i think a lot are simply exasperated and have decided to actively ignore...
so not that they are thick, or that they dont actually care, but they choosing the risk over the reward

irishbucsfan

sydthebeat wrote: »

i think a lot are simply exasperated and have decided to actively ignore...
so not that they are thick, or that they dont actually care, but they choosing the risk over the reward

When the risk is not just to yourself, but to everyone around you, then it’s because you don’t care

errlloyd

irishbucsfan wrote: »

When the risk is not just to yourself, but to everyone around you, then it’s because you don’t care

I think some people are just stupid. Jack Nowell's tweet was HILARIOUSLY stupid for example. I don't think he's a bad person, I think there are lot of people who still really don't understand how this works.

Tomtom364

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I don’t think they’re thick. They just don’t care

Oh there is absolutely people out there that don't care.
But that in itself indicates that they are thick.

And there are plenty of thick people out there.

Buer

errlloyd wrote: »

I think some people are just stupid. Jack Nowell's tweet was HILARIOUSLY stupid for example. I don't think he's a bad person, I think there are lot of people who still really don't understand how this works.

I'm more baffled at Rob Baxter's claim that testing of players is no longer required and should be ditched. This was 3 days before the announcement that Sale had 16 players test positive and the Northampton vs Gloucester was postponed due to the Northampton team being close contacts of the Sale team.

For a guy that is very highly thought of within rugby as an insightful and intelligent operator, it was utterly moronic. Note that this was said as the overall cases in the UK were exploding.

“When you look at how few cases are being picked up I don’t think we are far off [having] genuine medical reasons to not continue with the testing,” said Baxter. “I think most clubs would be in agreement that the actual transfer rates even around players who are testing positive are so, so small. I think the argument for continued testing will die away pretty quickly.”

“It would save a fortune and free up a block of testing for other people,” argued the Chiefs’ director of rugby. “Because of the hygiene levels that are in place and the age-range of the players, positive tests are not leading to mass outbreaks. You would think they would. Is testing really preventing a locked-out club? I think the argument is getting very close to [saying] it’s not.

sydthebeat

irishbucsfan wrote: »

When the risk is not just to yourself, but to everyone around you, then it’s because you don’t care

agreed, i suppose my point is that its not that they are blaze about not caring... but as tomtom says... theyre just a bit thick as to the consequences.

awec

https://twitter.com/christinafinn8/status/1313133834834186247?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1313133834834186247%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.boards.ie%2Fvbulletin%2Fshowthread.php%3Ft%3D2058100772page%3D631

Total ****show.

Stheno

sydthebeat wrote: »

agreed, i suppose my point is that its not that they are blaze about not caring... but as tomtom says... theyre just a bit thick as to the consequences.

I think a lot of people are choosing to ignore the messaging as its so vague tbh

Plus it is not getting through to younger people

sydthebeat

awec wrote: »

https://twitter.com/christinafinn8/status/1313133834834186247?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1313133834834186247%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.boards.ie%2Fvbulletin%2Fshowthread.php%3Ft%3D2058100772page%3D631

Total ****show.

how would the HSE not have been notified when the National Clinical Director for Health Protection of the HSE and the Assistant National Director of the HSE sit on the NPHET board???

or is it just those in the sub group of the Coronavirus Expert Advisory Group who are actually making the decisions on a unilateral basis ????

Dave_The_Sheep

Of course the government isn't happy. They're in lose-lose territory here. They go stage 3 and if/when things go tits up, they'll be crucified for not following NPHETs advice. They follow NPHET go stage 5 and they'll get crucified by people and businesses who are pissed off at the whole scenario.

DGRulz

NPHET is apolitical, they're not there to make FF look good or to appease the Vintners Association. They're there to provide recommendations on public health during a global pandemic.

Also from her bio -

Political Correspondent
@thejournal_ie
. Tweets are my own. Got a story? DMs are open or email: christinafinn@thejournal.ie

Surely we can do better then the journal? Or are people just looking for anything that agrees with their own opinion?

sydthebeat

Stheno wrote: »

I think a lot of people are choosing to ignore the messaging as its so vague tbh

Plus it is not getting through to younger people

this is the big issue

what person under 25 years of age would have watched Cillian de gascon, Luke O Neill, Ronan Glynn et al on the late late show???

(or under 65 to be honest)

The communication feed that is going to young people is youtube, insta, snapchat and tik tok... and there is no government covid ads on youtube...

all thats there is madcap anti mask, anti lock down conspiracy crap

Stheno

sydthebeat wrote: »

how would the HSE not have been notified when the National Clinical Director for Health Protection of the HSE, Assistant National Director of the HSE sit on the NPHET board???

or is it just those in the sub group of the Coronavirus Expert Advisory Group who are actually making the decisions on a unilateral basis ????

Most likely this is Paul Reid complaining, he's the Head of the HSE

This happened previously where he wasn't consulted on something and lost the plot

sydthebeat

DGRulz wrote: »

NPHET is apolitical, they're not there to make FF look good or to appease the Vintners Association. They're there to provide recommendations on public health during a global pandemic.

agreed .... they are there to provide recommendations to the government on what the national response should be.

it should be understood that NPHET are in the vast main, Doctors, whos primary ethos is the saving of life.

This ethos will always over ride any sense of public good / economy / business etc.

Its up to the government to take on board what they recommend or not, thus the buck stops in the Dail

DGRulz

sydthebeat wrote: »

nope

they are there to provide recommendations to the government on what teh national response should be.

NPHET do not communicate with the public.

it should be understood that NPHET are in the vast main, Doctors, whos primary ethos is the saving of life.

This ethos will always over ride any sense of public good / economy / business etc.

Its up to the government to take on board what they recommend or not, thus the buck stops in the Dail

Yes, exactly. What part of what I said, isn't what you said?

Stheno

sydthebeat wrote: »

this is the big issue

what person under 25 years of age would have watched Cillian de gascon, Luke O Neill, Ronan Glynn et al on the late late show???

(or under 65 to be honest)

The communication feed that is going to young people is youtube, insta, snapchat and tik tok... and there is no government covid ads on youtube...

all thats there is madcap anti mask, anti lock down conspiracy crap

exactly. My partners kids are in the 25-30 age bracket, and his daughter said she could not keep up with restrictions as she does not watch the news, read newspapers etc

Mixed with confusion about the messages, its a huge issue imo

Back in August five of us from work had a night out, and there was plenty of back and forth figuring out the rules then, th I no it was ten people from five households could meet up, and we are all reasonably intelligent people in our 40s/50s