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May 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After two weeks ...

    IMT is on 9.9 although only Shannon is above that (at 10.9), and this past week was 9.0 which was 1.9 below normal.

    MAX of 23.6 and MIN of -3.2 have been mentioned in recent posts, that -3.2 was duplicated last night too (at Mountdillon).

    PRC so far is very slight, has fallen to 25% with only 1% of normal logged among the eleven stations this past week (nine of which were dry).

    SUN is at 153% with this past week 159.5% (957/600).

    Keep thinking that the rain will begin at some point but several more essentially dry days will mean that only a last week deluge can prevent the necessity for a scoring intervention. The lowest forecast we had was 84% (from Mr Stonewall) and even to get to that would take about twice normal from 20th to end of the month.

    So the third week starts with today and runs to next Thursday (21st), here is our range of forecasts (for the bonus question) to create a bit of excitement in what is turning out to be a snoozefest of a weather month if ever there was one ...

    FORECASTER(s) _______________Predicted IMT 15-21

    200 motels ___________________12.6

    Kindred Spirit, mickger844posts __ 12.5

    Mr Skinner, Mr Stonewall ________12.3

    Adam240610, Pauldry __________ 12.1

    Bsal, Rikand __________________ 12.0

    Tae laidir, Dacogawa, Con sensus _ 11.9

    Sunflower3, sryanbruen _________11.8

    Artane2002 ___________________11.6

    Dasa29, NormaL _______________11.5

    waterways, JPmarn ____________ 11.4

    M.T. Cranium _________________ 11.3

    Joe Public ____________________ 11.1

    DOCARCH ____________________10.9

    John mac ____________________ 10.5

    BLIZZARD7 ___________________10.0


    Current forecast seems to favour the higher end of this group, we shall see ...


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I will track the developing week three IMT daily here. After the 15th it was 8.1 (8.06). To reach 12.6 now requires an average of 13.7 for the next six days. To reach 10.0 requires 10.3. For the middle range, 11.9 requires 12.5.

    My forecast last issued works out to an average of 13 and an outcome of 12.2.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Day two of the third week came in at 10.4 C and the average is now close to 9.2 C. It will now require an average for the next five days of 14 C to reach our highest prediction of 12.6 and just 10.3 to reach the lowest forecast of 10.0 while an outcome of 12.0 needs 13.1 to verify.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Day three of the riveting week three sub-contest managed 13.0, bringing the running average up to 10.5 C. Now to reach 12.6 will require 14.3 for the next four days (including today), while 12.0 needs about 13.1, forecasts are in that range.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Day four report (week three) ... IMT was 13.8, running average now up to 11.3 C. The forecasts including today, tomorrow and Thursday all average daily means around 14-15 C, likely to end up close to our warmest prediction(s).


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After five days of steady warming, day five hit 15.9 on the IMT and brought the running average up to 12.2. Today and tomorrow both look to be easily warmer than 14, which in itself would boost the final average to 12.7 so it appears very likely that scoring will proceed from top to bottom of the entries. But I will hold off on scoring until certain of that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Day six was also warm (14.9 C) and the IMT now stands at 12.7 C. Today can be reliably estimated to come in above that so the average will be higher than any forecasts. I will confirm this inevitable conclusion tomorrow but the points are going to look about like this:

    200 motels ___________________12.6 __ 10 pts

    Kindred Spirit, mickger844posts __ 12.5 __ 10 pts

    Mr Skinner, Mr Stonewall ________12.3 ___ 9 pts

    Adam240610, Pauldry __________ 12.1 ___ 8 pts

    Bsal, Rikand __________________ 12.0 ___ 7 pts

    Tae laidir, Dacogawa, Con sensus _ 11.9 ___ 6 pts

    Sunflower3, sryanbruen _________11.8 ___ 5 pts

    Artane2002 ___________________11.6 ___ 4 pts

    Dasa29, NormaL _______________11.5 ___ 4 pts

    waterways, JPmarn ____________ 11.4 ___ 3 pts

    M.T. Cranium _________________ 11.3 ___ 2 pts

    Joe Public ____________________ 11.1 ___ 2 pts

    DOCARCH ____________________10.9 ___ 1 pt

    John mac ____________________ 10.5 ___ 1 pt

    BLIZZARD7 ___________________10.0 ___ 0 pts


    Well done 200motels, Kindred Spirit and mickger844posts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After three weeks, with the conclusion of the third week IMT tracker verified ...

    IMT is now on 10.9 with the third week average 12.74 which was 1.3 above normal. Yesterday's average was close to 13.5, Claremorris had a rather low minimum which held them down, so the reported value from day six hardly moved up but the result is still above the highest forecast value of 12.6 so the provisional scoring I offered is confirmed now.

    MAX of 23.6 and MIN of -3.2 have made it safely through.

    PRC has risen to 41% with the third week at 74% of normal. The measurements came about halfway through the rainfall event last night, Cork and Valentia had received most of what they would eventually see, but other stations were just getting started into 5-15 mm totals. If I estimate where the rest of today's rainfall places PRC, that would be around 50% of normal for the month. If it remains largely dry after today then we'll be back down to this 40% mark by end of the week.

    SUN is down to 124% with this past week only 67.3% (404/600).

    Most likely finishing values from forecasts would be in the range of 11.2, 23.6, -3.2, 50% and 120%.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    26.8 at Mountdillon on 28th for our new MAX.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,776 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    26.8 at Mountdillon on 28th for our new MAX.

    The record for May is 28.4C
    at (Ardfert Liscahane) in Kerry
    31st 1997

    Last day, so we have 2 to go :)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After four weeks of May ...

    IMT up to 11.6 (probably 11.8 as of now) with the fourth week average 13.9, about 2 deg above normal. At this rate IMT will most likely finish around 12.1.

    MAX has soared to 26.8 C and could go higher, the min-prog cleanup crew have been alerted. Waterways at 26.4 had our highest forecast, luckily for the field that won't trigger the reduced boost as the raw score is 16/20. A few others went over 25, you will be rewarded.

    MIN remains -3.2, will go way out on a limb and say that's done.

    PRC is now at 43% of normal; the week registered 46% and most of that was the second part of the 14th-15th rainfall event, as it has been essentially dry since that. This will finish on or around 40%, more work for the cleanup crew.

    SUN is back up to 131% with this past week 152% (911/600). This will finish around 130%.

    I may provide a provisional scoring table over the weekend as I think we will be waiting for the 3rd to see the MS and most of these values are near extreme points in our forecast ranges.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    IMT finished on 12.2 C.

    MAX of 26.8 was tied one more time.

    MIN of -3.2 is a distant memory.

    PRC will come in close to 40% (will verify exact amount, I know we need the mercy rule).

    SUN went nuts since end of week four and could finish as high as 140% of normal.

    I will post preliminary scoring later today, feeling that it can't change much from these values.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Provisional scoring for May 2020


    FORECASTER _________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__BONUS____TOTALS

    __ Estimated values __ 12.2_26.8_--3.2_040_140__12.7


    Joe Public ____________24 _ 17*_ 20*_ 05*_ 10 __ 2 ______ 78

    mickger844posts ______20 _ 14*_ 13*_ 12*_ 05 __10 ______ 74

    waterways ___________16 _ 20*_ 18*_ 07*_ 03 __ 3 ______ 67

    Rikand ______________18 _ 16*_ 05*_ 12*_ 08 __ 7 ______ 66

    Dacogawa ___________ 23 _ 13*_ 13*_ 05*_ 02 __ 6 ______ 62

    John mac ____________16 _ 18*_ 12*_ 08*_ 04 __ 1 ______ 61

    Kindred Spirit ________ 24 _ 06*_ 10*_ 04*_ 06 __10 ______ 60

    MrSkinner ___________ 22 _ 12*_ 12*_ 03*_ 02 __ 9 ______ 60

    200motels___________ 20 _ 12*_ 07*_ 08*_ 03 __10 ______ 60


    ___ Con Sensus ______ 18 _ 12*_ 12*_ 05*_ 04 __ 6 ______ 57


    DOCARCH ___________ 13 _ 14*_ 05*_ 13*_ 08 __ 1 ______ 54

    Dasa29 _____________ 23 _ 08*_ 03*_ 06*_ 09 __ 4 ______ 53

    Tae laidir ____________ 23 _ 12*_ 01*_ 05*_ 06 __ 6 ______ 53

    BLIZZARD7 ___ (-7) ___06 _ 15*_ 19*_ 14*_ 06 __ 0 _ 60-7= 53

    Artane2002 __________ 17 _ 07*_ 16*_ 04*_ 04 __ 4 ______ 52


    ___ NormaL _________ 14 _ 15*_ 05*_ 10*_ 04 __ 4 ______ 52


    Sunflower3 __________ 18 _ 06*_ 17*_ 03*_ 02 __ 5 ______ 51

    Bsal ______ (-4) _____ 16 _ 10*_ 03*_ 10*_ 06 __ 7 _ 52-4= 48

    Adam240610 ___ (-4) _ 23 _ 07*_ 02*_ 07*_ 04 __ 8 _ 51-4=47

    Pauldry ___ (-2) ______18 _ 03*_ 05*_ 08*_ 06 __ 8 _ 48-2= 46

    sryanbruen __________ 19 _ 05*_ 12*_ 00*_ 02 __ 5 ______ 43

    Jpmarn _____________ 12 _ 02*_ 16*_ 04*_ 02 __ 3 ______ 39

    M.T. Cranium ________ 14 _ 08*_ 07*_ 01*_ 03 __ 2 ______ 35

    Mr.stonewall__________12 _ 04*_ 07*_ 01*_ 01 __ 9 ______ 34
    * Adjusted scoring for minimum progression was needed for MAX, MIN, PRC.
    SUN is scored from 130% which may approximate the minimum progression scoring too.

    Congrats will be awarded when these scores are confirmed. I can't foresee much change to them.
    Then the annual scoring update will follow (around 3rd of June).

    _____________________________________________________

    (actual forecasts)

    FORECASTER _________IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ IMT 3rd week

    Tae laidir ____________12.4 _ 23.8 _ +0.5 _ 112 _ 108 __ 11.9

    Adam240610 ___ (-4) _ 12.4 _ 23.3 _ +0.1 _ 102 _ 099 __ 12.1

    Joe Public ____________12.3 _ 25.1 _ --3.6 _ 111 _ 130 __ 11.1

    Kindred Spirit ________ 12.1 _ 23.0 _ --1.2 _ 115 _ 112 __ 12.5

    Dacogawa ___________ 12.0 _ 23.9 _ --1.5 _ 111 _ 090 __ 11.9

    Dasa29 _____________ 12.0 _ 23.5 _ --0.5 _ 110 _ 125 __ 11.5

    MrSkinner ___________ 11.9 _ 23.8 _ --1.3 _ 116 _ 090 __ 12.3

    mickger844posts ______11.7 _ 24.1 _ --1.4 _ 090 _ 105 __ 12.5

    200motels____________11.7 _ 23.8 _ --1.1 _ 105 _ 093 __ 12.6

    sryanbruen __________ 11.6 _ 22.9 _ --1.3 _ 150 _ 090 __ 11.8

    Rikand ______________11.5 _ 25.0 _ --1.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 12.0

    Sunflower3 __________ 11.5 _ 23.0 _ --1.8 _ 120 _ 092 __ 11.8


    ___ Con Sensus ______11.5 _ 23.8 _ --1.3 _ 111 _ 100 __ 11.9


    Pauldry ___ (-2) ______11.5 _ 22.5 _ --1.0 _ 106 _ 112 __ 12.1

    Artane2002 __________11.4 _ 23.2 _ --1.6 _ 115 _ 100 __ 11.6

    waterways ___________11.3 _ 26.4 _ --2.0 _ 109 _ 097 __ 11.4

    Bsal ______ (-4) _____ 11.3 _ 23.7 _ --0.5 _ 098 _ 111 __ 12.0

    John mac ____________11.3 _ 25.3 _ --1.3 _ 106 _ 098 __ 10.5

    M.T. Cranium _________11.1 _ 23.5 _ --1.1 _ 130 _ 095 __ 11.3

    ___ NormaL _________ 11.1 _ 24.5 _ --1.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 11.5

    DOCARCH ___________ 11.0 _ 24.1 _ --0.9 _ 083 _ 120 __ 10.9

    Mr.stonewall__________10.9 _ 22.8 _ --1.2 _ 134 _ 084 __ 12.3

    Jpmarn _____________ 10.9 _ 22.4 _ --1.8 _ 115 _ 092 __ 11.4

    BLIZZARD7 ___ (-7) ___10.3 _ 24.9 _ --3.8 _ 081 _ 110 __ 10.0
    _____________________________________________________


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,776 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Happy enough with those provos :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    And I'm back ... with the good news (for Joe anyway) that those scores are final. So congrats to Joe, mickger844posts, waterways and Rikand who partially solved the puzzle of this month (in terms of raw scores, I think the highest would be 54, and the raw score of normal is actually 22, consensus 30) The actual numbers for May were confirmed or adjusted to be

    IMT 12.2

    MAX 26.8

    MIN -3.2

    PRC 41%

    SUN 135%

    Although I had said SUN looked like 140%, I scored it off 130% as a method to get a minimum progression and will leave as is. The monthly summary shows an average of 8.13 hours of sunshine a day at the six locations, and normal is 6.03 (May has the highest average of all months, it tends to have a secondary peak in July which is sunniest at one or two locations in Ireland such as Johnstown Castle). That 8.13 hours appears to have been a record high value, it was at the Dublin area stations which averaged closer to 9 hours.

    The scores are all good except that I appear to have added up John mac incorrectly, that 61 will go down as 59, sorry about that.

    That allows us to move straight to the annual update and a report on four seasons (spring). Going off to retrieve the tables needed for that work now. I just realized it is 0300h where you are and nobody will read this for several hours anyway, can take my time (it is 7 p.m. yesterday here).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Updated Annual Scoring Summary January to May 2020

    The number in brackets after your rank (total score) is last month's rank. The number in brackets after your best 4/5 total (end of the row) is your rank in that statistic. This will be tracked in similar proportions to September when it changes to best 7/9 and begins to order the table, at which point total score will be tracked as the secondary value.


    rank _ FORECASTER _______ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May __TOTAL___ Best 4/5 (rank)


    01_(01)_ Mrskinner ________86 _ 54 _ 72 _ 61 _ 60 ___ 333 ____ 279 (1)

    02_(02)_ Kindred Spirit _____61 _ 63 _ 71 _ 71 _ 60 ___ 326 ____ 265 (3)


    (03)_(04)___ Con Sensus ___ 70 _ 62 _ 59 _ 69 _ 57 ___ 317 ____ 260 (5)


    03_(06)_Rikand ___________ 68 _ 38 _ 64 _ 73 _ 66 ___ 309 ____ 271 (2)

    04_(03) _sryanbruen _______47 _ 58 _ 88 _ 71 _ 43 ___ 307 ____ 264 (4)

    05_(04)_Artane2002 _______ 56 _ 63 _ 65 _ 69 _ 52 ___ 305 ____ 253 (6)

    06_(07)_Dacogawa _________73 _ 64 _ 53 _ 51 _ 62 ___ 303 ____ 252 (t7)

    07_(t12)_mickger844posts ___55 _ 63 _ 60 _ 48 _ 74 ___ 300 ____ 252 (t7)


    (08)_(t05)__ NormaL _______70 _ 50 _ 73 _ 55 _ 52 ___ 300 ____ 250 (9)


    08_(16)_Joe Public _________70 _ 65 _ 42 _ 39 _ 78 ___ 294 ____ 255 (5)

    09_(05)_Jpmarn ___________86 _ 51 _ 50 _ 61 _ 39 ___ 287 ____ 248 (9)

    10_(09)_Sunflower3 ________68 _ 60 _ 50 _ 57 _ 51 ___ 286 ____ 236 (t12)

    11_(10)_DOCARCH _________58 _ 61 _ 62 _ 50 _ 54 ___ 285 ____ 235 (16)

    12_(15) _john mac _________64 _ 46 _ 52 _ 61 _ 59 ___ 282 ____ 236 (t12)

    t13_(08)_M.T. Cranium _____ 69 _ 59 _ 60 _ 51 _ 35 ___ 274 ____ 239 (11)

    t13_(11) _Adam240610 _____62 _ 38 _ 58 _ 69 _ 47 ___ 274 ____ 236 (t12)

    15_(14)_Bsal ______________62 _ 54 _ 57 _ 52 _ 48 ___ 273 ____ 225 (18)

    16_(t12) _Pauldry __________63 _ 36 _ 58 _ 69 _ 46 ___ 272 ____ 236 (t12)

    17_(17) _Tae laidir _________67 _ 49 _ 48 _ 49 _ 53 ___ 266 ____ 218 (19)

    18_(18)_Dasa29 ___________48 _ 70 _ 55 _ 38 _ 53 ___ 264 ____ 226 (17)

    19_(19) _BLIZZARD7 _______66 _ 36 _ 47 _ 44 _ 53 ___ 246 ____ 210 (20)

    20_(20) _200motels ________47 _ --- _ 75 _ 61 _ 60 ___ 243 ____ 243 (10)

    21_(21) _waterways ________--- _ 54 _ 42 _ 44 _ 67 ___ 207 ____ 207 (21)


    22_(22)_Tazio ____________ --- _ --- _ --- _ 68 _ xx ____ 68

    23_(23)_JCXBXC __________ 58 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ____ 58

    24_(24)_WesternStorm _____ 54 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ____ 54

    25_(25)_esposito __________ 49 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ____ 49

    26 _(--)_Mr Stonewall ______ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 34 ____ 34

    =================================================


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Four Seasons contest winter and spring 2019-20 scoring


    Spring scores are shown for those who qualify for points. If you had points from winter but were below 10th place in spring, your total is in brackets. Those who missed qualifying for either season have their spring totals listed below table. The table is ordered by total points so the spring points are not shown in order, it's ten points for top score and seven points for second, on down to one point for each of 8th, 9th and 10th place (ties get same number of points). Consensus and Normal score like forecasters but their positions don't count relative to those below them.


    FORECASTER ___ winter pts _ Total score (spring) _ points ___ TOTAL


    MrSkinner __________ 10 _______ 193 _________ 5 _________ 15

    Rikand _____________ -- _______ 203 _________10 _________ 10

    mickger844posts ______ 6________182 _________ 2 __________ 8

    Artane2002 __________ 5 _______ 186 _________ 3 __________ 8


    ____ Con Sensus ______6 _______ 185 _________ 2 __________ 8


    sryanbruen __________-- _______ 202 _________ 7 __________ 7

    JPmarn ______________7 _______(150) ________ -- __________7

    200motels __________ -- _______ 196 _________ 6 __________ 6

    Kindred Spirit________ -- _______ 192 _________ 4 __________ 4

    sunflower3 ___________4 _______(158) ________ -- __________4

    Joe Public ____________3 _______(159) ________ --__________ 3

    dacogawa ____________2 _______(166) ________ -- __________2

    John mac ____________ 1 _______ 172 _________ 1 __________2


    ___ NormaL __________1 _______ 180 _________ 1 __________ 2


    Adam240610 ________ -- ________174 _________ 1 __________ 1

    Pauldry _____________-- ________173 _________ 1 __________ 1

    Tae laidir ____________ 1 _______(150) ________ -- __________ 1

    Bsal ________________ 1 _______(157)_________-- __________ 1

    __________________________________________________

    Spring totals, no points scored include those above in brackets, plus

    DOCARCH 166, waterways 153, M.T.C. and dasa29 146, Blizzard7 144

    ==============================================

    MrSkinner cruises along on top with Rikand jumping into second place with his win for spring.

    Most of the top points scorers for spring had been shut out in winter, so the table is now fairly tightly packed.

    Five of our 21 regulars have not scored four seasons points yet.


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