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May 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 29-04-2020 2:39am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT (Irish Mean Temperature), the average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon. The 1981-2010 normal value for May is 11.1 C. (max 25 points)

    2. Predict the MAX (highest temperature at any regular reporting site as confirmed in the Monthly Summary of Met-Eireann) during May. (max 20 points)

    3. Predict the MIN (lowest temperature etc, see above) (max 20 points)

    4. Predict the PRC in May (rainfall and liquid equivalent of any frozen precip) as a percentage of normal values. The baseline for this is a grid of eleven stations, the five mentioned in part one above, and also Belmullet, Malin Head, Valentia, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, and Cork. (max 15 points)

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) for May as a percentage of normal values at six locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Cork, Shannon, Valentia). (max 10 points)

    6. For a BONUS question (10 points), what will be the IMT for week three (15th to 21st) of the month? Normal value can be taken as 11.5. That will be the average of the seven days of that third week, not the running value for the whole month.

    The usual deadlines and penalties apply. Good luck !!

    My forecast plus NormaL will follow

    MTC ____________ 11.1 _ 23.5 _ -1.1 _ 130 _ 095 __ 11.3

    NormaL __________11.1 _ 24.5 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 11.5


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen ____________ 11.6 _ 22.9 _ -1.3 _ 150 _ 090 __ 11.8

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn __________10.9_ 22.4_ -1.8 _ 115 _ 92__ 11.4


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels_______ 11.7— 23.8_ -1.1_ 105 _ 093 12.6


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002 __________11.4 _ 23.2 _ -1.6 _ 115 _ 100 __ 11.6


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,121 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ____________ 11.0 _ 24.1 _ -0.9 _ 83 _ 120 __ 10.9


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  • Registered Users Posts: 318 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 12.1 ___ 23 ___ -1.2 ___ 115 ___ 112 ___ 12.5


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,572 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ___ 11.5 ____ 25.0 ____ -1.0 ____ 90 ____ 120 ____ 12.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,997 ✭✭✭ John mac


    John mac __________11.3 _ 25.3 _ -1.3 _ 106 _ 98 __ 10.5


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,746 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public ____________ 12.3 _ 25.1 _ -3.6 _ 111 _ 130 __ 11.1


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,407 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts __________11.7 _ 24.1 _ -1.4 _ 90_ 105 __ 12.5


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa ____________ 12.0 _ 23.9 _ -1.5 _ 111 _ 90 __ 11.9


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3 __________11.5 _ 23.0 _ -1.8 _ 120 _ 92 __ 11.8


  • Registered Users Posts: 351 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways __________11.3 _ 26.4 _ -2.0 _ 109 _ 97 __ 11.4


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir __________12.4 _ 23.8 _ 0.5 _ 112 _ 108 __ 11.9


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner_____11.9____23.8°____-1.3°____116____90____12.3


  • Registered Users Posts: 755 ✭✭✭ mr.stonewall


    Mrstonewall__________10.9__22.8__-1.2__134__84__12.3


  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29_____12.0____23.5____-0.5____110____125____11.5


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry_____11.5____22.5____-1___106____112____12.1


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,717 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal __________11.3 _ 23.7 _ -0.5 _ 98 _ 111 __ 12.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 748 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    Adam240610___12.4_23.3__0.1__102__99__12.1


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7 __________10.3 _ 24.9 _ -3.8 _ 81_ 110 __ 10.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of Forecasts for May 2020

    FORECASTER _________IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ IMT 3rd week

    Tae laidir ____________12.4 _ 23.8 _ +0.5 _ 112 _ 108 __ 11.9

    Adam240610 ___ (-4) _ 12.4 _ 23.3 _ +0.1 _ 102 _ 099 __ 12.1

    Joe Public ____________12.3 _ 25.1 _ --3.6 _ 111 _ 130 __ 11.1

    Kindred Spirit ________ 12.1 _ 23.0 _ --1.2 _ 115 _ 112 __ 12.5

    Dacogawa ___________ 12.0 _ 23.9 _ --1.5 _ 111 _ 090 __ 11.9

    Dasa29 _____________ 12.0 _ 23.5 _ --0.5 _ 110 _ 125 __ 11.5

    MrSkinner ___________ 11.9 _ 23.8 _ --1.3 _ 116 _ 090 __ 12.3

    mickger844posts ______11.7 _ 24.1 _ --1.4 _ 090 _ 105 __ 12.5

    200motels____________11.7 _ 23.8 _ --1.1 _ 105 _ 093 __ 12.6

    sryanbruen __________ 11.6 _ 22.9 _ --1.3 _ 150 _ 090 __ 11.8

    Rikand ______________11.5 _ 25.0 _ --1.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 12.0

    Sunflower3 __________ 11.5 _ 23.0 _ --1.8 _ 120 _ 092 __ 11.8


    ___ Con Sensus ______11.5 _ 23.8 _ --1.3 _ 111 _ 100 __ 11.9


    Pauldry ___ (-2) ______11.5 _ 22.5 _ --1.0 _ 106 _ 112 __ 12.1

    Artane2002 __________11.4 _ 23.2 _ --1.6 _ 115 _ 100 __ 11.6

    waterways ___________11.3 _ 26.4 _ --2.0 _ 109 _ 097 __ 11.4

    Bsal ______ (-4) _____ 11.3 _ 23.7 _ --0.5 _ 098 _ 111 __ 12.0

    John mac ____________11.3 _ 25.3 _ --1.3 _ 106 _ 098 __ 10.5

    M.T. Cranium _________11.1 _ 23.5 _ --1.1 _ 130 _ 095 __ 11.3

    ___ NormaL _________ 11.1 _ 24.5 _ --1.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 11.5

    DOCARCH ___________ 11.0 _ 24.1 _ --0.9 _ 083 _ 120 __ 10.9

    Mr.stonewall__________10.9 _ 22.8 _ --1.2 _ 134 _ 084 __ 12.3

    Jpmarn _____________ 10.9 _ 22.4 _ --1.8 _ 115 _ 092 __ 11.4

    BLIZZARD7 ___ (-7) ___10.3 _ 24.9 _ --3.8 _ 081 _ 110 __ 10.0
    _____________________________________________________

    Con sensus for now is median of 22 forecasts ... can be updated if more entries received.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    -0.6c Markree Castle a decent min


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    The first week stats ...

    IMT 10.8 which is 0.6 above normal.

    MAX not tracked yet, MIN -0.6

    PRC only 50% despite Cork logging 204%.

    SUN 146.5% (879/600).


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,121 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    High of 23.6c yesterday at Newport.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭ FVP3


    People seem incredibly off with the rainfall predictions, maybe the feeling was we had it too good in April. Its not over yet I suppose.


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Dublin Airport - 0.7 yesterday. Forecast to be beaten this week.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    FVP3 wrote: »
    People seem incredibly off with the rainfall predictions, maybe the feeling was we had it too good in April. Its not over yet I suppose.

    Yup looks another blowout for me


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,717 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    -3.2 Mullingar


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Bsal wrote: »
    -3.2 Mullingar

    I think that's also the minimum temperature recorded in April and 1c higher than March's minimum.


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