Asymptomatic Cases

paddythere

When they say that half of people who have this are asymptomatic, what exactly do they mean?

Do they mean they had no symptoms when they tested positive and will develop symptoms soon or do they mean some people have it and never develop symptoms at all?

I'm asking as I know someone who returned from Spain when this was all kicking off and tested positive but never developed any symptoms at all. She is about 60 and diabetic. Seems odd but its true.

Pretzill

Asymptomatic means without symptoms.

If someone had it and was described as Asymptomatic generally that means no symptoms.
But they could have been presymptomatic where they went on to develop symptoms.

paddythere

Pretzill wrote: »

Asymptomatic means without symptoms.

I'm aware of that. I'm saying they are not giving much information about the amount of these cases which never actually develop any symptoms at all

paddythere

Deleted User wrote: »

If someone had it and was described as Asymptomatic generally that means no symptoms.
But they could have been presymptomatic where they went on to develop symptoms.

Thats what I'm saying. They really should provide a bit of information on this. I'd like to know what % of people who get it develop no symptoms at all.

Pretzill

paddythere wrote: »

I'm aware of that. I'm saying they are not giving much information about the amount of these cases which never actually develop any symptoms at all

Because they don't have symptoms they are probably not getting tested. So there wouldn't be much information to impart.

irishgeo

paddythere wrote: »

I'm aware of that. I'm saying they are not giving much information about the amount of these cases which never actually develop any symptoms at all

They don't know about them. This is what will reduce the death rate if they do find a way to identify these cases of it.

Away With The Fairies

60 and diabetic, tested positive and no symptoms... That's crazy... How are they now?

paddythere

paddythere wrote: »

Thats what I'm saying. They really should provide a bit of information on this. I'd like to know what % of people who get it develop no symptoms at all.

There was a prison in Ohio where 96% of confirmed cases were asymptomatic.

JP Liz V1

Pretzill wrote: »

Asymptomatic means without symptoms.

Yes that what I believe it means

Also I hate that word asymptomatic now

ShineOn7

The asymptomatic is a strange one for me

Some reports says the % of asymptomatic cases is 50/60%, but then WHO say it's closer to 3-5%. That's a huge feckin' canyon of difference

We can't even trust WHO anymore after how much they've fúcked this up

The higher the asymptomatic rate, the better as that would mean the mortality rate is well below 1% (but still many times more lethal than the flu)

PricklyPete

There was a piece on sky news (I think) earlier about Iceland. They've tested 40k ppl which is a huge proportion of the population. Half of those testing positive were asymptomatic, but surely they must be counting people who have yet to develop symptoms amongst those too. They definitely never make it clear one way or the other in any of the similar reports I've seen.

Stheno

paddythere wrote: »

When they say that half of people who have this are asymptomatic, what exactly do they mean?

Do they mean they had no symptoms when they tested positive and will develop symptoms soon or do they mean some people have it and never develop symptoms at all?

I'm asking as I know someone who returned from Spain when this was all kicking off and tested positive but never developed any symptoms at all. She is about 60 and diabetic. Seems odd but its true.

How did they get a get a test with no symptoms?

Did they have contact with a confirmed case?

ShineOn7

PricklyPete wrote: »

There was a piece on sky news (I think) earlier about Iceland. They've tested 40k ppl which is a huge proportion of the population. Half of those testing positive were asymptomatic, but surely they must be counting people who have yet to develop symptoms amongst those too. They definitely never make it clear one way or the other in any of the similar reports I've seen.

Not sure I put much weight into that Iceland study and it's very low mortality rate (around 0.35% I believe) as i did initially.

Iceland's geography, location, spread out population, low population are all very different to other affected countries

paddythere

Stheno wrote: »

How did they get a get a test with no symptoms?

Did they have contact with a confirmed case?

I'm not entirely sure tbh, I tried to enquire about that but I didn't really get an answer. I know she minds children for a doctor so I suspect the doctor probably arranged for a test to be safe since the lady I know had recently returned from Spain.

paddythere

PricklyPete wrote: »

There was a piece on sky news (I think) earlier about Iceland. They've tested 40k ppl which is a huge proportion of the population. Half of those testing positive were asymptomatic, but surely they must be counting people who have yet to develop symptoms amongst those too. They definitely never make it clear one way or the other in any of the similar reports I've seen.

Yea that's what I mean, not much information being provided on this. Like, I'm thinking that since I know someone who is 60 and diabetic but has had it weeks without ever developing any symptoms then surely something like half the people who get this don't ever develop any symptoms. Hard to know.

paddythere

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

60 and diabetic, tested positive and no symptoms... That's crazy... How are they now?

Still no symptoms despite testing positive weeks ago

pgj2015

does anyone know if and when we will all be able to get tested to see if we have had it or not? even people who have had no symptoms.

ceadaoin.

There was another case at a Boston homeless shelter where all of the 146 people who tested positive were asymptomatic

https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/04/14/coronavirus-boston-homeless-testing

I think it's likely that good portion of the population in epicenters has had this, even if they weren't aware of it. It will definitely turn out that the fatality rate is way lower than first indicated.

Away With The Fairies

paddythere wrote: »

Still no symptoms despite testing positive weeks ago

I hope it stays like that. I really hope the immune system can fight it off in these asymptomatic cases.

Lisha

I’d love to know, If people are asymptomatic, how long will they stay positive and infectious for?

the14thwarrior

the mass testing in one nursing home has shown up the same positive results in asymp. people. and they infected lots of staff

sad but true

Mongfinder General

paddythere wrote: »

Still no symptoms despite testing positive weeks ago

So how long does it stay in the body posing a threat to her and others?

The reason why we are not getting the information we need is because our health "experts" don't fully understand what they're talking about. That's why the action to date has been stay inside and only call us if you're on deaths doors.

ShineOn7

Lisha wrote: »

I’d love to know, If people are asymptomatic, how long will they stay positive and infectious for?

I believe the HSE worker doing the AMA said that people shed Covid for upto 3 weeks after and to allow 4 weeks to be safe. I'd have to trawl back through his very big AMA to get more concrete numbers though



It's here for anyone looking https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058062219

What Username Guidelines

It’s an interesting one. One the the first cases here was a nurse who came back from Italy and insisted on a test before returning to work. She was positive so they tested the whole group. I think it was maybe 7 or 9 out of 16 were positive. All in hospital as all cases were admitted at first. One (maybe more) was completely asymptomatic the whole time.

I read about that 96% prison story but there may be plenty of presymptomatics so it’s an interesting one to follow. Along with the cruise ships and aircraft carriers around the place as microcosms.

I think the IFR will really depend on the cohort of people. If you’ve a city of very young people it’ll be a different to story to a city of old and overweight people, for example.

The asymptomatic number being high is good news, but even with all the antibody tests going on and giving initial good results, I’m still not convinced it’s that high because how can South Korea keep a lid on the whole thing if there are 4x or 5x cases for every symptomatic case.

Danzy

Cuomo said testing in New York city suggests an infection rate of 21% as of early last week.

ShineOn7

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

I read about that 96% prison story but there may be plenty of presymptomatics

What's presymptomatic mean in terms of Covid?

Mongfinder General

Danzy wrote: »

Cuomo said testing in New York city suggests an infection rate of 21% as of early last week.

That's pretty much what I worked out for Dublin when weighting confirmed cases in Dublin against the sample size and multiplying by population quotient.

Hmmzis

ShineOn7 wrote: »

What's presymptomatic mean in terms of Covid?

One can test positive before developing any symptoms. Viral sheding can happen before any symptoms start, hence Korea having so much trouble keeping it under control even with their monumental effort of testing, tracing and isolating all contacts.

The data from the Diamond Princess was quite the jaw dropper for me as the asymptomatic/symptomatic split was almost 50/50 regardless of any age groups or pre-existing conditions. Same with that aircraft carrier and other places where extensive testing has been done, including our own care homes. I can't quite wrap my head around that, we're missing something very important that could save many, many lives.

Could we start testing those asymptomatic cases for any other coronavirus antibodies (HCoV types, since no others made it far)? Maybe some tests on their angiotensin system, any particular differences? I'm sure this must be driving the researchers and doctors nuts.

Away With The Fairies

paddythere wrote: »

When they say that half of people who have this are asymptomatic, what exactly do they mean?

Do they mean they had no symptoms when they tested positive and will develop symptoms soon or do they mean some people have it and never develop symptoms at all?

I'm asking as I know someone who returned from Spain when this was all kicking off and tested positive but never developed any symptoms at all. She is about 60 and diabetic. Seems odd but its true.

Does this person smoke by any chance?

Stheno

Tony Holohan announced in one of the briefings during the week that once yhey9decide what antibody tests will be used, there are plans for a joint antibody testing scheme with NI to do surveillance testing and try to identify the true rate of infection

Didnt give a timeframe

ShineOn7

Hmmzis wrote: »

One can test positive before developing any symptoms. Viral sheding can happen before any symptoms start, hence Korea having so much trouble keeping it under control even with their monumental effort of testing, tracing and isolating all contacts.

The data from the Diamond Princess was quite the jaw dropper for me as the asymptomatic/symptomatic split was almost 50/50 regardless of any age groups or pre-existing conditions. Same with that aircraft carrier and other places where extensive testing has been done, including our own care homes. I can't quite wrap my head around that, we're missing something very important that could save many, many lives.

Could we start testing those asymptomatic cases for any other coronavirus antibodies (HCoV types, since no others made it far)? Maybe some tests on their angiotensin system, any particular differences? I'm sure this must be driving the researchers and doctors nuts.

I'd throw Dr Paddy Mallon and other high profile consultants who've given Covid interviews an email with that. Fúck it, it's worth a shot

What Username Guidelines

Mongfinder General wrote: »

That's pretty much what I worked out for Dublin when weighting confirmed cases in Dublin against the sample size and multiplying by population quotient.

Yeah my GP is on Twitter and posts a lot of covid stuff. He reckons from calls to his practice and what he’s hearing from other GPs, the stringent test requirements (2 symptoms) and accounting for the possible 4/5 being asymptomatic, that we’re finding about 4% of actual cases. I find that a low %, but what do I know. It would mean Dublin has 150k cases, or just over 10% of population.

I don’t have the skill to work our age ranges and what not, but there’s probably a calculation to figure out likelihood of symptoms depending on age and age spread of population.

It’s also anecdotal, but on a zoom call with friends and out of 11 of us, all know lots of unconfirmed cases, and 8 were sure that during March they had some symptoms so who knows. The flip side here is when we started testing the positivity rate was 3%, so 97% of those thought the same. Maybe are confirmed cases are spot on.

It makes me wonder if a vaccine in September is even gonna cut it or will Ireland hit herd immunity before then. Given it’s so concentrated in Dublin. And Cavan.

Pretzill

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

It makes me wonder if a vaccine in September is even gonna cut it or will Ireland hit herd immunity before then. Given it’s so concentrated in Dublin. And Cavan.

Aren't the WHO stating there's no evidence yet of becoming immune after contracting Covid-19 - it's seems like a right bastard this one.

Away With The Fairies

Pretzill wrote: »

Aren't the WHO stating there's no evidence yet of becoming immune after contracting Covid-19 - it's seems like a right bastard this one.

I'm hoping there will be a vaccine and booster vaccines given when needed.

Hmmzis

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I'd throw Dr Paddy Mallon and other high profile consultants who've given Covid interviews an email with that. Fúck it, it's worth a shot

Would you know any contact details for any of them by any chance? Please PM me if you have.

What Username Guidelines

Pretzill wrote: »

Aren't the WHO stating there's no evidence yet of becoming immune after contracting Covid-19 - it's seems like a right bastard this one.

Yep absolutely, but there is an understanding that if there is immunity it could be short term in months. So spreading out the curve will mean repeat infections if that’s the case. It’s all so unknown. Obviously the curve needs to be spread so health services can cope.

Even if there is some immunity short term, it places shields in vectors by having a certain % of the population immune which slows contagion. Again, all unknown. Sweden definitely being watched on this.

Hmmzis

Pretzill wrote: »

Aren't the WHO stating there's no evidence yet of becoming immune after contracting Covid-19 - it's seems like a right bastard this one.

They've since backpedalled on that one:

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1254160937805926405?s=19

ShineOn7

Hmmzis wrote: »

They've since backpedalled on that one:

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1254160937805926405?s=19

I really hate these WHO cúnts. And I don't use that word lightly

ShineOn7

Hmmzis wrote: »

Would you know any contact details for any of them by any chance? Please PM me if you have.

I don't but drop Baz Ashmawy a line on his Facebook. He did the interviews with Paddy

The HSE worker doing the very useful and informative AMA can be found here https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/member.php?u=928230

Pretzill

Hmmzis wrote: »

They've since backpedalled on that one:

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1254160937805926405?s=19

They seem to enjoy confusing the general public ヽ(｀⌒´)ノ

wakka12

Iceland and the cruise ship both showed 50% asymptomatic.
The prison and homeless shelter , with 90%+, I would put less stock in as it just seems like click bait given the fact they never clarified whether it meant presymptomatic or asymptomatic and of course we will never get to find out anything about the follow up because media don't care behind the initial shock headline

And if the disease has a 90% asymptomatic rate,everyone would have it by now. But antibody testing in Italy Germany and USA has shown rates of infection of about 15-20% in epicentres, and 1-5% in less affected areas.

Mongfinder General

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I really hate these WHO cúnts. And I don't use that word lightly

I've always found this with state/semi state/international/NGO bodies. They nearly all seek publicity to promote their cause or business, hire expensive management/boards and PR, and spend most of their time manipulating various media channels. Self aggrandisement doesn't cover it.
Whenever a major problem or crisis hits, they are suddenly faceless. None of those responsible for their respective operations wants to know. They dare not shoulder any responsibility and are terrified of making a mistake in the public domain.

However, one notable exception of late is Dr Tony Holohan. Definitely not afraid to impart his wisdom and doesn't run from the questions.

JoChervil

I wonder if asymptomatic cases infect others. Few days ago in the main thread there was an interview with a professor from South Korea posted. And he said that people started infecting others precisely 2 days before showing symptoms. So maybe, if someone never shows symptoms, so is not contagious?

nj27

Stheno wrote: »

Didnt give a timeframe

That's unlike him.

paddythere

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Does this person smoke by any chance?

Yep

Away With The Fairies

paddythere wrote: »

Yep

Wonder if there's some truth in smokers being better off?

ShineOn7

Is it just the reports we're seeing or does there seem to be vastly more asymptomatic cases in this Wave?





https://twitter.com/ZaraKing/status/1309172872276041729

ACitizenErased

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Is it just the reports we're seeing or does there seem to be vastly more asymptomatic cases in this Wave?





https://twitter.com/ZaraKing/status/1309172872276041729

That's the effect of increased testing and masks, one would assume.
I usually count the community transmission cases as the ones with symptoms, as it means they presented to doctors, and the majority of the rest without.

ShineOn7

The Irish "government" and media have been very quiet about Asymptomatic cases lately.

Remember that big meat factory outbreak when something like 80% of cases showed no symptoms?

• Is there any recent, reliable data on Asymptomatic cases in Ireland? And
  
  
• Where are Asymptomatic cases recently in terms of Immunity? Is it very low?

(PS - mods, could we have a thread merge? https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=114376411)

ShineOn7

What the actual feck?

It's an outlier though. John Campbell has asymptomatic cases estimated now @ 18%

Excuse huge image