Does this mean the end of human contact until there is a vaccine?

VonLuck

Everyone seems to be preoccupied with all the restrictions currently in place and waiting for the day that the government starts to lift them. What no one appears to be appreciating is that social distancing will be part and parcel of our lives for a long time to come and may not realise what that will mean for everyone.

It's all well and good saying that things will start getting back to normal after restrictions are relaxed, but in reality you will always be putting people you come into contact with at risk until there is a vaccine.

If you truly wish to limit further infections, or god forbid the death of a loved one, all close contact will have to be avoided until everyone is immune. That means no physical contact with anyone outside your household or even being within 2 metres.

No handshakes with friends, no hugging family, no dating life (even if you are in a relationship but don't live together). You won't be able to visit friends or family in good conscience unless you're willing to potentially expose them to the virus. It's a tough place to be, especially if you decide to take the risk and the worst happens.

I can't see any way around this unless there is some sort of antibody test, but even then it's not guaranteed that you can't catch the virus again.

fryup

yep, no more one night stands until there is a vaccine

so make sure you're stocked up with kleenex

hellyeah

fryup wrote: »

yep, no more one night stands until there is a vaccine

so make sure you're stocked up with kleenex

Yeah will be playing the oul one armed bandit for the foreseeable.

theological

VonLuck wrote: »

Everyone seems to be preoccupied with all the restrictions currently in place and waiting for the day that the government starts to lift them. What no one appears to be appreciating is that social distancing will be part and parcel of our lives for a long time to come and may not realise what that will mean for everyone.

It's all well and good saying that things will start getting back to normal after restrictions are relaxed, but in reality you will always be putting people you come into contact with at risk until there is a vaccine.

If you truly wish to limit further infections, or god forbid the death of a loved one, all close contact will have to be avoided until everyone is immune. That means no physical contact with anyone outside your household or even being within 2 metres.

No handshakes with friends, no hugging family, no dating life (even if you are in a relationship but don't live together). You won't be able to visit friends or family in good conscience unless you're willing to potentially expose them to the virus. It's a tough place to be, especially if you decide to take the risk and the worst happens.

I can't see any way around this unless there is some sort of antibody test, but even then it's not guaranteed that you can't catch the virus again.

I don't think there will be no human contact until a vaccine. The reason we are following the lockdown measures is to bring the number of cases down so that the government can put alternative measures in place.

There's only so long people will continue to accept lockdown measures. Other countries in Europe are easing up. The lockdown measures will only be effective for as long as people support them.

People are expecting governments to use the time we are giving them to find alternative methods of protecting us from the virus.

Deep Thought

Things will be different. But at some point it will be like the flu.

People are going to get it and will be treated for it

Once the vaccine is here . It will be like the flu vaccine.

That’s what it’s Important to have a proper testing process so people can be tested and diagnosed within 36 hours.

Abba987

theological wrote: »

I don't think there will be no human contact until a vaccine. The reason we are following the lockdown measures is to bring the number of cases down so that the government can put alternative measures in place.

There's only so long people will continue to accept lockdown measures. Other countries in Europe are easing up. The lockdown measures will only be effective for as long as people support them.

People are expecting governments to use the time we are giving them to find alternative methods of protecting us from the virus.

What is the alternative though? Social distance is the only option i can see in avoiding this virus. Its getting lonely and i don't know how much longer people in relationships who are not in the same household can be expected to stay apart

theological

Abba987 wrote: »

What is the alternative though? Social distance is the only option i can see in avoiding this virus. Its getting lonely and i don't know how much longer people in relationships who are not in the same household can be expected to stay apart

Life will have to go on eventually, albeit not in an entirely normal form.

When the death figures do down, and the number of cases are back at a level where we can use contact tracing, ramping up testing so we can control the disease with accurate data, and using mobile apps to determine who we have been in contact with, these measures have to be eased.

They are not sustainable long term. Both in terms of people's behaviours and in terms of the economy. People will stop tolerating this scenario eventually and there is only so long that we will be able to keep the economic measures that we have in place.

Everyone knows this. We're going to have to learn how to adapt and how to live with this virus until a vaccine is found. The current measures are not sustainable until then.

Jayesdiem

theological wrote: »

I don't think there will be no human contact until a vaccine. The reason we are following the lockdown measures is to bring the number of cases down so that the government can put alternative measures in place.

There's only so long people will continue to accept lockdown measures. Other countries in Europe are easing up. The lockdown measures will only be effective for as long as people support them.

People are expecting governments to use the time we are giving them to find alternative methods of protecting us from the virus.

I agree with this. I think there is a weariness setting in now and while I wouldn’t quite predict the type of protests going on in the US, keeping the economy totally shut down for much longer isn’t at all viable. I was hugely dismayed to see Simon Harris say that it’s unlikely pubs will open for the rest of 2020. Not because I miss a pint, but because of the lack of realism in that suggestion. Pub owners around the country aren’t going to put up with that. They can’t feed their families on thin air and if the restrictions do go on until then, well a lot of pubs won’t be seeing light at the other end. There will come a critical time in the not very distant future when the cost of the lockdown will exceed the benefit. To go beyond that point would be more irresponsible than not locking down in the first place.

fryup

hellyeah wrote: »

Yeah will be playing the oul one armed bandit for the foreseeable.

don't over do it, you don't want wanna go blind now :cool:

Dr. Bre

Even a vaccine won’t be 100 % protection from covid . Probably 80

There is no guarantee that there will be a vaccine. The WHO is clear in as much. So we certainly can't put anything on pause while we wait for one. We need to find new ways of doing things, living alongside this virus. Hygiene will play a big part, because we cant socially distance in perpetuity

Harry Palmr

Christmas will be miserable, even more than normal.

Oops!

God damn it..... Demolition Man got it right....

briany

Jayesdiem wrote: »

I agree with this. I think there is a weariness setting in now and while I wouldn’t quite predict the type of protests going on in the US, keeping the economy totally shut down for much longer isn’t at all viable. I was hugely dismayed to see Simon Harris say that it’s unlikely pubs will open for the rest of 2020. Not because I miss a pint, but because of the lack of realism in that suggestion. Pub owners around the country aren’t going to put up with that. They can’t feed their families on thin air and if the restrictions do go on until then, well a lot of pubs won’t be seeing light at the other end. There will come a critical time in the not very distant future when the cost of the lockdown will exceed the benefit. To go beyond that point would be more irresponsible than not locking down in the first place.

Pubs are going to be hit hard either way. Yes, if you opened them back up, it'd be mardi gras in a few places for a short period of time, but as people police their own behaviour over the coming months to try and avoid this virus, pub business is going to drop precipitously anyway, as will business for restaurants, nightclubs and virtually all recreational gathering places.

There is a logic in having the pubs being the last place to open. As other sectors of the economy start generating revenue again, it gives the government funds to put schemes in place that would financially support pub owners, be that a weekly stipend or a hold on leases etc.

frillyleaf

Jayesdiem wrote: »

I agree with this. I think there is a weariness setting in now and while I wouldn’t quite predict the type of protests going on in the US, keeping the economy totally shut down for much longer isn’t at all viable. I was hugely dismayed to see Simon Harris say that it’s unlikely pubs will open for the rest of 2020. Not because I miss a pint, but because of the lack of realism in that suggestion. Pub owners around the country aren’t going to put up with that. They can’t feed their families on thin air and if the restrictions do go on until then, well a lot of pubs won’t be seeing light at the other end. There will come a critical time in the not very distant future when the cost of the lockdown will exceed the benefit. To go beyond that point would be more irresponsible than not locking down in the first place.

Ridiculous comment for a TD to say in my opinion. Pubs may be able to open up over the next few months, just differently to how the operate now. There could be a treatment found for this next week for all we know, I don’t think life will stop until a vaccine is found. The way people socialise will likely change but I find it hard to believe that all pubs will be closed until a vaccine. There may even be restrictions as having to ‘check in’ to pubs for contact tracing etc. Restricted opening times, restricted customers etc. Some bars also have food and outdoor areas.

They may not open the same way as we are used to but I think it’s unhelpful to say that they won’t open until a vaccine that could take up to a year.

Utopia Parkway

No guarantee there will ever be a vaccine. Coronaviruses are very difficult to produce vaccines for as they can mutate although COVID-19 has not mutated very much apparently. Which gives them some chance.

It's very possible that treatment itself including drugs will improve massively the more the scientific community learn about the virus thereby reducing the mortality rate to a level which we can live with.

VonLuck

I understand that the lockdown can't last forever and people will get weary of it soon enough, but even with government relaxing the measures, there still is an inherent risk.

The government could say (although extremely unlikely) that there are no further social distancing measures and you can meet up with whoever you like. The problem is that you could still infect a loved one. Even with all the contact tracing and ICU facilities available, you could be putting their lives at risk.

dePeatrick

Dr. Bre wrote: »

Even a vaccine won’t be 100 % protection from covid . Probably 80

The standard seasonal flu vacinne is about 70% effective at best, this one seems to mutate very quickly however that will effect vacinnes. We have been 18 months away from one for three months now, standard flu vacinne takes 4 years to bring out. I'm sure they will speed it up for this but by how much?

I actually have grave doubts about a vacinne for Covid19 because of the many diferrent strains of it, or whether there is any long term immunity at all.

The likelihood of a treatment coming out from the 40+ being formulated and tested around the world is way more likely.

Azatadine

I have to laugh at all of the vaccine experts on all of these Boards threads. Some over optimistic and others too pessimistic.

Irrespective of vaccine, or not, treatments will be a game changer. I'm not hung up on the vaccine. However, if something like Remdesivir can make it such that I can be treated successfully within the next three months, I'm OK with that.

Kivaro

Yep, I think we need to set our sights on successful treatments rather than a vaccine in the near future.
It's the social aspects of pubs, restaurants, attending sports events etc., which is the hardest loss to most people.

Crazy to think that things we took for granted (e.g. going to meet friends for a pint) ain't no more.
But, successful treatments, when they become available will almost take us back to normal.

Inquitus

There's only 2 ways to avoid social distancing, at least on an on and off basis. Loosening restrictions and the R0 goes up, tightening them up again the R0 goes down. Those 2 ways are:

#1 A working vaccine which has been honestly estimated at being available in Summer 21 at the very earliest.
#2 A working therapeutic treatment which significantly reduces the CFR.

Donald Trump

fryup wrote: »

yep, no more one night stands until there is a vaccine

so make sure you're stocked up with kleenex

Maybe that's why the they had the mass panic buying of jacks roll!

Donald Trump

Azatadine wrote: »

I have to laugh at all of the vaccine experts on all of these Boards threads. Some over optimistic and others too pessimistic.

Irrespective of vaccine, or not, treatments will be a game changer. I'm not hung up on the vaccine. However, if something like Remdesivir can make it such that I can be treated successfully within the next three months, I'm OK with that.

I have to laugh at people who have to come on and tell us that they have to laugh at other people on boards.


Are ya taking an oul' tea break from sequencing the virus there yourself?

Dr. Bre

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Christmas will be miserable, even more than normal.

Ba humbug

Azatadine

Donald Trump wrote: »

I have to laugh at people who have to come on and tell us that they have to laugh at other people on boards.


Are ya taking an oul' tea break from sequencing the virus there yourself?

Nope. I don't profess to be an expert on vaccines (although I do work with products that may well be used in vaccine purification). Hence, I don't claim that one will or won't be available in time, unlike many of the boards experts.

The focus should be on therapies and they are more realistic in the short term irrespective of vaccines in future or not.

bennyineire

dePeatrick wrote: »

The standard seasonal flu vacinne is about 70% effective at best, this one seems to mutate very quickly however that will effect vacinnes. We have been 18 months away from one for three months now, standard flu vacinne takes 4 years to bring out. I'm sure they will speed it up for this but by how much?

I actually have grave doubts about a vacinne for Covid19 because of the many diferrent strains of it, or whether there is any long term immunity at all.

The likelihood of a treatment coming out from the 40+ being formulated and tested around the world is way more likely.

I love all the experts here, where is you evidence that it mutates " very quickly" or did you just make this up ?

In fact it mutates much slower than the seasonal flu, here I even have a source for you https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-mutation-rate.html

fryup

fryup wrote: »

yep, no more one night stands until there is a vaccine

so make sure you're stocked up with kleenex

Donald Trump wrote: »

Maybe that's why the they had the mass panic buying of jacks roll!

all the randy teenage boys ?

theological

Inquitus wrote: »

There's only 2 ways to avoid social distancing, at least on an on and off basis. Loosening restrictions and the R0 goes up, tightening them up again the R0 goes down. Those 2 ways are:

#1 A working vaccine which has been honestly estimated at being available in Summer 21 at the very earliest.
#2 A working therapeutic treatment which significantly reduces the CFR.

Do you actually believe that the lockdown will last until 2021? I think it's highly unlikely politically or economically.

VonLuck

theological wrote: »

Do you actually believe that the lockdown will last until 2021? I think it's highly unlikely politically or economically.

He didn't say lockdown. Social distancing most certainly will need to be in place until then.

theological

VonLuck wrote: »

He didn't say lockdown. Social distancing most certainly will need to be in place until then.

What exactly does that mean? Easing the lockdown would require some form of easing to social distancing. That's effectively what it would have to mean.

Otherwise the measures would be defacto identical to what we have now.

tdf7187

OP, please state your scientific qualifications and expertise, otherwise you are just another chicken licken on the internet.

VonLuck

theological wrote: »

What exactly does that mean? Easing the lockdown would require some form of easing to social distancing. That's effectively what it would have to mean.

Otherwise the measures would be defacto identical to what we have now.

Yes, exactly my point. Lockdown (which is effectively the current measures) is never going to be maintained as is until 2021 and no one is suggesting that.

tdf7187 wrote: »

OP, please state your scientific qualifications and expertise, otherwise you are just another chicken licken on the internet.

Do I need scientific qualifications to raise a discussion now? I haven't stated anything that isn't common knowledge.

theological

VonLuck wrote: »

Yes, exactly my point. Lockdown (which is effectively the current measures) is never going to be maintained as is until 2021 and no one is suggesting that.

Do I need scientific qualifications to raise a discussion now? I haven't stated anything that isn't common knowledge.

Could you answer my question about what maintaining social distancing would look like after the lockdown is eased?

I agree that pubs, cafes and restaurants are probably going to be among the last to open.

What Username Guidelines

theological wrote: »

Could you answer my question about what maintaining social distancing would look like after the lockdown is eased?

I agree that pubs, cafes and restaurants are probably going to be among the last to open.

I think it means limits on everything. So you'll still queue for shops and there will be limited occupancy of each shop at a time. Masks maybe, screens for cashiers, a push towards more online spending where possible for retailers. Things like concerts/gatherings/sport is unknown.

Looking at Italy and Spain, their surges came from zero restrictions - large protest in madrid with 80k people, etc. The idea is to deal with that surge now, get over the 'hump' and then open slowly with distancing so there isnt another surge. More focus on handwashing/coughing/etc will put a dent in it, unknown how much of a dent.

The big issue is that in Italy now, as they open up some shops, there are no customers. The big fear that was initially instilled in people to keep them home, is keeping them home now. This helps keep spread down alright, but doesnt do a lot for the economy. Even if people were dying to get out, slower throughput via social distancing means less revenue, and thats assuming people have money to spend in the first place.

It's a very, very difficult scenario that no one has the correct answer to unfortunately.

hmmm

We will develop a better understanding of how the virus transmits, and this knowledge will allow us to relax restrictions. At the moment, because we have so little information, we have to stop everything.

In my completely non-expert opinion, there is very little evidence of transmission in outdoor settings, so perhaps meeting up with people outdoors might become acceptable. Not great in our climate, but we'll have to adapt! There is lots of evidence of transmission in places like bars, restaurants, churches - enclosed indoor spaces.

I think ultimately if it drags on we will all have a health status (or at least those who want to interact). The Chinese have already developed this - the West were looking on tut-tutting at what China has done, but they are ahead of the game. Everyone in China now gets a health score - so depending on your health status and travel history, you get a particular colour grade. Perhaps in the dating of the future you might have it as a criteria that someone has to meet a particular health score, or you might use the same criteria to judge whether you want to meet up with family, or invite someone to that party.

What Username Guidelines

hmmm wrote: »

I think ultimately if it drags on we will all have a health status (or at least those who want to interact). The Chinese have already developed this - the West were looking on tut-tutting at what China has done, but they are ahead of the game. Everyone in China now gets a health score - so depending on your health status and travel history, you get a particular colour grade. Perhaps in the dating of the future you might have it as a criteria that someone has to meet a particular health score, or you might use the same criteria to judge whether you want to meet up with family, or invite someone to that party.

This is how it should work but I just cant see it being accepted by enough to make it feasible. I believe the contract tracing apps in eastern countries grade you when you're supposed to be in isolation for example, so you're not allowed enter restaurants/public transit, etc.

Immunity certs, if immunity is a thing, would also allow this or at least help with it, but that's a massive divisive issue - if they announced that, you'd have a minority allowed to do as they please, the most vulnerable locked down, and the rest going around licking trolley handles taking their chances.

Harry Palmr

Social distancing is the space between two people. not closed shops and businesses.

MadYaker

So every couple that isn’t cohabitating are going to stay 2 metres away from each other for the next two years? Yeah right. Do the government really think it’s realistic for there to be no bars, clubs, restaurants, sporting events, schools, universities etc none of these places can operate with social distancing. Harris needs to come up with a much, much better plan. I’m thinking I might move back to France for a year or two if that’s what it’s going to be like here.

Harry Palmr

What do you think it'll be like there? Have you checked?

MadYaker

Harry Palmr wrote: »

What do you think it'll be like there? Have you checked?

They are working towards half a million tests a week. Stuff in Paris is reopening in 3 weeks. Remains to be seen if society will be a bit more open there but it’s looking like it will be.

theological

MadYaker wrote: »

So every couple that isn’t cohabitating are going to stay 2 metres away from each other for the next two years? Yeah right. Do the government really think it’s realistic for there to be no bars, clubs, restaurants, sporting events, schools, universities etc none of these places can operate with social distancing. Harris needs to come up with a much, much better plan. I’m thinking I might move back to France for a year or two if that’s what it’s going to be like here.

To be honest it is already nigh on impossible to keep people at the required distance in the supermarket already!

I think it's going to be impossible to stop people meeting
within the 2m range when the measures get eased. It's probably more a case of restricting the size of gatherings. Reducing social contact may be possible but eliminating it entirely long term won't work.

ILoveYourVibes

Yes.

No visiting friends etc. No pubs.

ILoveYourVibes

MadYaker wrote: »

So every couple that isn’t cohabitating are going to stay 2 metres away from each other for the next two years? Yeah right. Do the government really think it’s realistic for there to be no bars, clubs, restaurants, sporting events, schools, universities etc none of these places can operate with social distancing. Harris needs to come up with a much, much better plan. I’m thinking I might move back to France for a year or two if that’s what it’s going to be like here.

Schools and universities fine.

Sporting events pubs etc ..nope.

Perhaps you have a list of people you are going to interact with and no interacting with people outside of that circle.

BanditLuke

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Christmas will be miserable, even more than normal.

An upside at long last.

VonLuck

MadYaker wrote: »

So every couple that isn’t cohabitating are going to stay 2 metres away from each other for the next two years? Yeah right. Do the government really think it’s realistic for there to be no bars, clubs, restaurants, sporting events, schools, universities etc none of these places can operate with social distancing. Harris needs to come up with a much, much better plan. I’m thinking I might move back to France for a year or two if that’s what it’s going to be like here.

Realistically I don't think any government could impose those restrictions long term.

The question I guess I'm asking is that once these restrictions are lifted, the responsibility lies with the individual. The risk will always be there until there is a vaccine.

Would people be willing to visit their over 70 parents if the government lifted social distancing restrictions, even temporarily?

theological

VonLuck wrote: »

Realistically I don't think any government could impose those restrictions long term.

The question I guess I'm asking is that once these restrictions are lifted, the responsibility lies with the individual. The risk will always be there until there is a vaccine.

Would people be willing to visit their over 70 parents if the government lifted social distancing restrictions, even temporarily?

That depends on the circumstances. For example if I'm working in an environment where I am in contact with a lot of people I would possibly avoid this scenario. But if I live alone and I have not been in contact with anyone else all week then the risk is extremely low.

Scotty #

UrbanFret

Vaccine will be available before year end. Then the wait to manufacture enough of it to treat the world. Highest bidders will get it first. I'd say we'll be in the 2nd tier.

Downlinz

It's a choice between social distancing or everyone wearing masks

hmmm

MadYaker wrote: »

So every couple that isn’t cohabitating are going to stay 2 metres away from each other for the next two years? Yeah right. Do the government really think it’s realistic for there to be no bars, clubs, restaurants, sporting events, schools, universities etc none of these places can operate with social distancing. Harris needs to come up with a much, much better plan. I’m thinking I might move back to France for a year or two if that’s what it’s going to be like here.

It's a virus, it's not like he can simply wave a wand and have it disappear.

Ultimately we may have some restrictions lifted, but unless you (personally) are willing to take a risk there is going to be advice to remain socially distant until a vaccine or some other medical solution emerges.

The couples, schools, bars, clubs etc are going to have to come up with a plan of their own, the government can only set broad guidelines. Some businesses will simply not be able to exist while the virus circulates (e.g. crowded pubs, nightclubs).

JustAThought

everybody sensible.

In the meantime our local pub has opened yesterday with a big fanfare of hand dispensers outside in the street and signs to keep socail distance inside and the usual boyos hanging around taking drags at the door sipping theor pints. Garda station 30 seconds stroll up the road ... not bothered