rip.ie stats

ifElseThen

Projected Total for April 2020 based on rip.ie entries up until 11 April 2020

MM/YYYY| #Deaths| 2020 %Increase v Year
Apr-15| 2610| 53.40%
Apr-16| 2675| 49.67%
Apr-17| 2561| 56.33%
Apr-18| 2797| 43.14%
Apr-19| 2760| 45.06%
Apr-20| 4004|



N.B.

• Projected April 2020 total based off 30*April daily average.
• Not all notices are necessarily posted on rip.ie.
• rip.ie uses single id for dual entries.
• rip.ie id seems to be incremented sequentially.

_Kaiser_

I'm not sure I get your point?

People are dying both as a result of Covid and other/natural causes?

Not sure how posting increasing death figures helps?

_ZeeK_

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

I'm not sure I get your point?

People are dying both as a result of Covid and other/natural causes?

Not sure how posting increasing death figures helps?

Puts things in context in a way the media, in reporting absolute death figures every day, does not.

Darc19

This makes no sense whatsoever.

A sort of scaremongering sensationalist post worthy of the daily mail/muck

As you state, not all deaths are published on rip. But due to restrictions, they are more likely to be published there this year.

And then you are second guessing figures for 2/3rds of the month.

Quick march yourself to the daily mail - they love people like you that can create hysterical nonsense

ifElseThen

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

I'm not sure I get your point?

People are dying both as a result of Covid and other/natural causes?

Not sure how posting increasing death figures helps?

Ah it's really just a tracker on the rip stats. A rough but stark guide to the spike that COVID-19 has had on the death rates.

its absolutely relevant

if there isnt 100% certainty of how many are dying because of the virus - because of the limits of knowledge, because coroners decide against putting it down, because etc etc

then the establishment of a deviation from a baseline is very useful knowledge

why anyone would attack such a demonstration is beyond me

facts are never scaremongering

_ZeeK_

Darc19 wrote: »

This makes no sense whatsoever.

A sort of scaremongering sensationalist post worthy of the daily mail/muck

As you state, not all deaths are published on rip. But due to restrictions, they are more likely to be published there this year.

And then you are second guessing figures for 2/3rds of the month.

Quick march yourself to the daily mail - they love people like you that can create hysterical nonsense

Hysterical? Seems balanced. OP even points out areas where statistical anomalies might lie.

See this from Dan O'Brien - Chief economist at the Institute of International and European Affairs and columnist with the Independent (not the Dail Mail). I agree with his assertion.

https://twitter.com/danobrien20/status/1245469804812779520?s=20

Jim_Hodge

ifElseThen wrote: »

Ah it's really just a tracker on the rip stats. A rough but stark guide to the spike that COVID-19 has had on the death rates.

But it's not. It's unscientific, and ignores all other factors, like greater use of RIP due to the restrictions.

Sorry, but it's hogwash.

expectationlost

ifElseThen wrote: »

Projected Total for April 2020 based on rip.ie entries up until 11 April 2020

MM/YYYY| #Deaths| 2020 %Increase v Year
Apr-15| 2610| 53.40%
Apr-16| 2675| 49.67%
Apr-17| 2561| 56.33%
Apr-18| 2797| 43.14%
Apr-19| 2760| 45.06%
Apr-20| 4004|



N.B.

• Projected April 2020 total based off 30*April daily average.
• Not all notices are necessarily posted on rip.ie.
• rip.ie uses single id for dual entries.
• rip.ie id seems to be incremented sequentially.

https://twitter.com/seamuscoffey/status/1248215014017765378

ifElseThen

Darc19 wrote: »

This makes no sense whatsoever.

A sort of scaremongering sensationalist post worthy of the daily mail/muck

As you state, not all deaths are published on rip. But due to restrictions, they are more likely to be published there this year.

And then you are second guessing figures for 2/3rds of the month.

Quick march yourself to the daily mail - they love people like you that can create hysterical nonsense

I fail to see any sensationalism in providing a comparison?

I'm not second guessing, merely making a projection based on the daily average to date.

If anything the starkness of the approx increase in deaths might reinforce the severity of COVID-19.

wakka12

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

But it's not. It's unscientific, and ignores all other factors, like greater use of RIP due to the restrictions.

Sorry, but it's hogwash.

Most other European countries have experienced major increases in national mortality rates in recent weeks. And people think it is hogwash or scare mongering to say that that might be the case here? Yeh the increase is much more likely to be people using RIP.ie more than the pandemic which is killing thousands of people daily. About 75 people die in Ireland daily, the last few days this has increased by about 25-30% because of COVID deaths. The figures in the OP are higher than that, so maybe it has also increased because of people using RIP.ie more. But COVID is obviously a major contributor to the rise

MadYaker

ifElseThen wrote: »

Projected Total for April 2020 based on rip.ie entries up until 11 April 2020

MM/YYYY| #Deaths| 2020 %Increase v Year
Apr-15| 2610| 53.40%
Apr-16| 2675| 49.67%
Apr-17| 2561| 56.33%
Apr-18| 2797| 43.14%
Apr-19| 2760| 45.06%
Apr-20| 4004|



N.B.

• Projected April 2020 total based off 30*April daily average.
• Not all notices are necessarily posted on rip.ie.
• rip.ie uses single id for dual entries.
• rip.ie id seems to be incremented sequentially.

Do you have this for march of this year?

KevRossi

Every death in Ireland has to be registered by law. It is only when those stats come out, and when we can compare them to previous years, that we will know the true extent of COVID-19. Some of those registered as dying will be directly from COVID, some will have natural deaths, some will pass away due to natural causes exacerbated by the COVID situation (heart failure due to stress etc.).

ifElseThen

From a purely numbers point of view, it'll all balance out I guess. One death this side from Covid = 1 less death on the far side from other causes.

ifElseThen

wakka12 wrote: »

The figures in the OP are higher than that, so maybe it has also increased because of people using RIP.ie more. But COVID is obviously a major contributor to the rise

In recent years anyway, it would seem of late that the majority of deaths are posted on rip.ie.

For 2018, rip.ie has *34026 entries v 31,116 official CSO deaths in 2018 so approx 10% more entries on rip.ie.

I see some death notices on rip.ie of Irish people who died abroad e.g. living in England etc.

Guess these make up the bulk of the extra notices on rip.ie.

id be surprised if the vast majority of deaths in this country arent on rip.ie

the numbers wont balance out, unless you mean of course that we all die eventually!

ifElseThen

Deleted User wrote: »

id be surprised if the vast majority of deaths in this country arent on rip.ie

the numbers wont balance out, unless you mean of course that we all die eventually!

Yes that's exactly what I meant, purely from the numbers!

My dad is in a nursing home where 9 have died since start of March.
He tested positive for Covid-19 and is on day 9 of the 14-day cycle.

I'd have expected another 5 years for him so if he died from this, then 1 less death registered on the far side of it.

Thankfully he is eating and drinking and seems to be getting through it though.

biko

ifElseThen wrote: »

I fail to see any sensationalism in providing a comparison?

Don't worry, Darc19 is only trying to make you doubt and self-censor yourself.

ninebeanrows

Often there are two or three notices on rip.ie for same person with different addresses.

Widdensushi

Any reports on the rise in suicide due to this crisis ?

BrianD3

KevRossi wrote: »

Every death in Ireland has to be registered by law. It is only when those stats come out, and when we can compare them to previous years, that we will know the true extent of COVID-19. Some of those registered as dying will be directly from COVID, some will have natural deaths, some will pass away due to natural causes exacerbated by the COVID situation (heart failure due to stress etc.).

It will be interesting to keep an eye on the UK's office for national statistics all cause mortality figures (England and Wales only) on www.ons.gov.uk I don't know if our CSO is as up to speed.

Latest figures from ONS are for the week ending the 27th March, provisional figures but I doubt that they will be far off the final figures. Deaths have to be registered within 5 days. Deaths in England/Wales were approx 150,000 from the start of the year to the 27th, for the previous 5 years the average was approx 153,000 for the same period. Deaths for the 1st March to the 27th were about 47k which was roughly the same as the 5 year average.

However the big surge in media/public health reported Covid-19 deaths happened after the 27th so it will be very telling to see the figures in the next few weeks. Tests for statistical significance can be carried out.

As you say, all cause mortality stats are critical here. The sloppy terminology used by the media and others annoys me. Take the following statements:
"10 people who have tested positive for Covid-19 have died"
"10 deaths were associated with Covid-19"
"10 people have died from Covid-19"

All with different meanings but used interchangeably. Not surprising though give that for several weeks, the media here in Ireland and many poster in this forum couldn't seem to grasp the difference between "number of people who have been admitted to ICU" from "number of people in ICU".

4068ac1elhodqr

Don't see the logic in some using standard published data as a reason to attack the most read(en) online newspaper in the world, some lefty agenda perhaps.

Another more practical and localised option would be to glance at your local newspapers and compare the death notices in the coming weeks.
N.Italy had it very bad, dozens of pages added in some cases to their regional/local newspapers in Lombardy etc.

ifElseThen

MadYaker wrote: »

Do you have this for march of this year?

MM/YYYY| #Deaths| 2020 %Increase v Year
Mar-15| 3044| 0.23%
Mar-16| 2996| 1.84%
Mar-17| 2883| 5.83%
Mar-18| 3151| -3.17%
Mar-19| 2806| 8.73%
Mar-20| 3051|

ifElseThen

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Often there are two or three notices on rip.ie for same person with different addresses.

Yeah for these, rip.ie uses the same id so it's a single entry with multiple locations. So in essence, not duplicated.

theoneeyedman

FWIW, I think these figures are very interesting, and in the absence of Realtime CSO death figures, draws an interesting picture.

There are people dieing at home that 'may' ja e Covid, but will not be measured in the real figures. This exercise will captuer those people.

_Brian

Ireland had about 600 deaths a week during 2019. Say 85 a day.
I checked online a few weeks ago after a conversation at home.

If everything else stays the same then the additional Covid19 deaths at the moment would indicate a noticeable increase.

fryup

if a number of deaths happened in a nursing home...should i be concerned?

ifElseThen

MM/YYYY| # Deaths| 2020 %Increase v Year
April 2015| 2610| 53.16%
April 2016| 2675| 49.44%
April 2017| 2561| 56.09%
April 2018| 2797| 42.92%
April 2019| 2760| 44.84%
April 2020| 3998|

ifElseThen

Up to 13 Apr 2020

MM/YYYY| # Deaths| 2020 %Increase v Year
April 2015| 2610| 54.29%
April 2016| 2675| 50.54%
April 2017| 2561| 57.24%
April 2018| 2797| 43.97%
April 2019| 2760| 45.90%
April 2020| 4027|

Skyfloater

ifElseThen wrote: »

Up to 13 Apr 2020

MM/YYYY| # Deaths| 2020 %Increase v Year
April 2015| 2610| 54.29%
April 2016| 2675| 50.54%
April 2017| 2561| 57.24%
April 2018| 2797| 43.97%
April 2019| 2760| 45.90%
April 2020| 4027|

Sorry OP, I don't get where you're getting the extra 1000 people/month from. Seamus Coffey's graph shows only an extra 50 or so people a week dying compared to previous years.

KCross

Skyfloater wrote: »

Sorry OP, I don't get where you're getting the extra 1000 people/month from. Seamus Coffey's graph shows only an extra 50 or so people a week dying compared to previous years.

Are you referring to this....
https://twitter.com/seamuscoffey/status/1248216109356113920?s=20

I think you might be misinterpreting his "... and rising by c.5 per day" comment?


The key stat is that the 7-day average for 2020 is now c.45 notices/day higher than the average for the equivalent periods in 2016-20

45 per day for a month matches the OPs table where there is approx 1300 extra postings projected to rip.ie.

homah_7ft

Are the RIP.ie deaths counted in this thread in the Republic of Ireland only?

wakka12

homah_7ft wrote: »

Are the RIP.ie deaths counted in this thread in the Republic of Ireland only?

No, Irish residents who died living abroad are posted there too. The very high death rates of our closest neighbours may also be contributing to an increased number of posts on RIP.ie.

homah_7ft

wakka12 wrote: »

No, Irish residents who died living abroad are posted there too. The very high death rates of our closest neighbours may also be contributing to an increased number of posts on RIP.ie.

This is what I was wondering since I gave a one minute look at a particular county and it had a death that occurred in the United States of America. I don't know whether this is included in the twitter statistics as a death in Ireland or not.

CrabRevolution

wakka12 wrote: »

No, Irish residents who died living abroad are posted there too. The very high death rates of our closest neighbours may also be contributing to an increased number of posts on RIP.ie.

I was thinking this. 2 of my uncles are down in RIP.ie, in the Meath category even though the 2 of them lived in the UK for 40 years before dying there. According to this "study" though they will be counted in Ireland's deaths.

begbysback

KCross wrote: »

Are you referring to this....
https://twitter.com/seamuscoffey/status/1248216109356113920?s=20

I think you might be misinterpreting his "... and rising by c.5 per day" comment?


The key stat is that the 7-day average for 2020 is now c.45 notices/day higher than the average for the equivalent periods in 2016-20

45 per day for a month matches the OPs table where there is approx 1300 extra postings projected to rip.ie.

Are the increases in mortality rates in Dec-19 caused by flu? If so then we should probably be comparing Dec with Apr, not Apr-19 with Apr-20

I posted this in another thread but have decided to post this here too, simply because it's relevant to the thread topic, and also it highlights how easy we can determine statistics for Nursing Homes in terms of deaths.

So, I have a distant elderly relative in a nursing home. The Nursing Home is based in the East of the country (Ireland).

By a simple google search, that took less than 5 minutes, I was able to determine that in the last 10 days, there were 7 recorded deaths in that particular nursing home (at least).

To say i'm worried is an understatement. While some of these death could well be from natural causes, there's no doubt in my mind that some are Covid-19 related as 7 deaths in 10 days just doesn't seem normal to me.

I won't dare mention this to my relatives- but I'm absolutely gutted and a lot more worried now than i was to date.

Mango Joe

Darc19 wrote: »

This makes no sense whatsoever.

A sort of scaremongering sensationalist post worthy of the daily mail/muck

As you state, not all deaths are published on rip. But due to restrictions, they are more likely to be published there this year.

And then you are second guessing figures for 2/3rds of the month.

Quick march yourself to the daily mail - they love people like you that can create hysterical nonsense

Ah the irony of how you're attacking the OP while branding them as lowbrow tabloid material on the basis of their posting.

On the basis of your posting I see you as an angry little man insulting others because you don't fully understand their motives or reasoning.

Why not follow your own advice.....quick, march yourself off to join an angry mob somewhere - They love belligerent insults being thrown around just cause they're bored and lack a bit of judgement and common sense.

* For the record the OP made no claims to have researched and published a white paper on the topic.... They just made a simple observation and posted it to our collective forum with the best of good intentions....They never deserved abuse from you or any other quarter.

D9Male

As others have said I think this is a very interesting way to attempt to get a handle on Covid-related deaths. At least to compare them to the figures released by the CMO and team each evening.

Obviously there are flaws to the approach, but it is interesting and the spike in rip.ie deaths do tell a tale, albeit we need to caveat it ourselves.

D9Male

D9Male wrote: »

As others have said I think this is a very interesting way to attempt to get a handle on Covid-related deaths. At least to compare them to the figures released by the CMO and team each evening.

Obviously there are flaws to the approach, but it is interesting and the spike in rip.ie deaths do tell a tale, albeit we need to caveat it ourselves.

And also, with the use of google and RIP.ie together you can see certain levels of reported deaths in nursing homes throughout Ireland as long as the nursing home is referenced in the death notice, which it often is- again, this is no indication of covid-19 deaths in nursing homes, but 7 deaths within a 10 day period over the last week in 1 nursing home in the east of Ireland? Covid-19 has to be a factor there.
I'm guessing that nursing homes may no longer be mentioned in RIP.ie notices once they cop on to this fact.

y0ssar1an22

expectationlost wrote: »

https://twitter.com/seamuscoffey/status/1248215014017765378

any idea what happened in ~march 2018?

y0ssar1an22

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

any idea what happened in ~march 2018?

Snow

A LOT of snow.

wakka12

Deleted User wrote: »

Snow

A LOT of snow.

I wonder , it does conincide almost exactly with the period of the snow and then quickly returns to normal after that event

expectationlost

CrabRevolution wrote: »

I was thinking this. 2 of my uncles are down in RIP.ie, in the Meath category even though the 2 of them lived in the UK for 40 years before dying there. According to this "study" though they will be counted in Ireland's deaths.

does it say in the death notice where they died/lived?

y0ssar1an22

Deleted User wrote: »

Snow

A LOT of snow.

it makes sense, but its not something i've ever really considered.

when it's cold in ireland alot more people die. kinda s/mad. i never really saw the point of the fuel allowance. that graphic has made me aware of its need.

r93kaey5p2izun

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

any idea what happened in ~march 2018?

I was hospitalised with Aussie flu in March 2018. Perhaps it had an impact? The snow could have played a part too.

JP Liz V1

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I posted this in another thread but have decided to post this here too, simply because it's relevant to the thread topic, and also it highlights how easy we can determine statistics for Nursing Homes in terms of deaths.

So, I have a distant elderly relative in a nursing home. The Nursing Home is based in the East of the country (Ireland).

By a simple google search, that took less than 5 minutes, I was able to determine that in the last 10 days, there were 7 recorded deaths in that particular nursing home (at least).

To say i'm worried is an understatement. While some of these death could well be from natural causes, there's no doubt in my mind that some are Covid-19 related as 7 deaths in 10 days just doesn't seem normal to me.

I won't dare mention this to my relatives- but I'm absolutely gutted and a lot more worried now than i was to date.

Are families told asap of confirmed positive cases in their relatives nursing homes? It is very sad to hear of so many deaths, I hope not for you PlentyOhToole, take care

s1ippy

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/health/some-covid-19-deaths-are-not-being-reported-coroner-warns-1.4229935%3fmode=amp

A Dublin coroner has warned about the underreporting of coronavirus deaths, so this thread is not baseless by any stretch of the imagination.

Why people want to shut down unpleasant truths baffles me. Surely the head in the sand approach is not great for the respiratory tract.

y0ssar1an22

s1ippy wrote: »

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/health/some-covid-19-deaths-are-not-being-reported-coroner-warns-1.4229935%3fmode=amp

A Dublin coroner has warned about the underreporting of coronavirus deaths, so this thread is not baseless by any stretch of the imagination.

Why people want to shut down unpleasant truths baffles me. Surely the head in the sand approach is not great for the respiratory tract.

it was never baseless as you say. avg deaths for the last 5 years vs this year. add on +/- 10% if you want to account for natural variance (and the weather anomalies) and it gives a good picture of where we're at.

how good is the data from RIP.ie to draw any meaningful conclusion? i would say its pretty good. its a relatively simple website. it reports deaths. I couldn't find where they source their info from however?

expectationlost

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

it makes sense, but its not something i've ever really considered.

when it's cold in ireland alot more people die. kinda s/mad. i never really saw the point of the fuel allowance. that graphic has made me aware of its need.

https://twitter.com/seamuscoffey/status/1250383113252896768

JP Liz V1

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Are families told asap of confirmed positive cases in their relatives nursing homes? It is very sad to hear of so many deaths, I hope not for you PlentyOhToole, take care

Hey- first of all many many thanks for the empathy and best wishes. I really do appreciate those kind words.

So, I can absolutely and categorically and truthfully state the following:

1. The East of the country Nursing home I mentioned in this thread, where there are AT LEAST 7 deaths recorded over 10 days in the month of April (as per a combo of RIP.ie and Google) - I can confirm that today they confirmed that COVID 19 was present in their nursing home. As per news reports, they also stated that now, they will test all staff and patients.

But I can also tell you truthfully that NO, ABSOLUTELY NO, that at no time since COVID became active in Ireland, did this nursing home phone next of kin to state COVID was present in the nursing home. And it has been there for at least the last 2 weeks

My post last night was as a result of my curiosity only- independent of anything that was planned today by govt announcements. What I can say is:

1. I’m fcking kicking myself I didn’t do my own independent research a week ago- again it would have only taken combining google with Rip.ie

2. The spouse of the person in question in the nursing home, who is aged themselves, has become very worried today with the public announcements and was desperately trying to get through to the nursing home - they fobbed that person off and kept them on hold - bastards

I made a call myself and was able to determine the above information

Like I said I’m kicking myself - TRUST was the biggest blocker here for inaction- we trusted that the nursing homes knew what they were doing

I know of one nursing home in the same county that is COVID free/ they shut down the home weeks ago including staff and provided onsite accommodation for staff and took temperatures of all daily- so why the fck did this nursing home not follow those procedures - bastards !

Sorry but I’m very annoyed because this could have been handled so much better/ a lot of lives could have been saved. With us being 2-3 weeks behind rest of Europe and considering the aged were most at risk and are the majority of deaths, why didn’t we start with protecting our most vulnerable first?