Sweden avoiding lockdown

CalamariFritti

I have said this multiple times but its been a while so I say it again cos the discussion around Sweden shows the same 'symptoms' that I observed all along.

When looking at the arguments made over the last days and weeks I think there is no denying that we are talking about small margins. We are debating whether this or the other stat is aligned or unaligned with some other parameters or whether Sweden can be compared to neighbouring countries only or not or whether Sweden had marginally better or worse outcome then this or the other country. We are debating around small differences.

Which is sort of clouding the debate. And while I'm not saying that the lockdown advocates do this deliberately it is certainly distracting from the big picture, which is only what we should be looking at.

The big picture is that Sweden took a drastically different approach. Some continue arguing that it wasnt all that different and that Sweden had restrictions too but the fact was and is that Swedens approach was different enough so that they needed to be attacked in the media for what they did, that their officials needed to be discredited and different enough we even continue to have our own Sweden thread. This one here.

And for all that it turns out that no disaster ensued, that Sweden was all along right in the middle of the road within the EU with regards to the impact COVID had on the country and now it turns out that a decent case can be made that they are best in class after all.

So whatever small margins still exist in that debate its safe to say that the drastically harsher restrictions on civil liberties and life in general that all the other countries introduced stand in no relation whatsoever to their assumed more favourable outcome. In fact it appears there was no more favourable outcome at all.

You can debate around the edges til the cow comes. The elephant in the rooms remains right there.

Which puts a very harsh light on everything that happened elsewhere. From the way the lockdown approach was chosen to the way it was bulled through as 'without alternative' for over two years to the impact it had on many lives and in fact on how we view our countries and our political systems and media and the way we do discourse from now on. It's been very very bad and now we try to brush it under the carpet.

Goldengirl

Lets not brush it under the carpet. Lets try to trach some agreement and make things clearer

You talk like people who were pro restrictions are trying to cover things up or mislead people.

I and others see it the other way round. It is important to correct misinformation or be part of a discussion that needs some balance be it facts and understanding or just some working knowledge of an area.

We all bring different things to the threads and its better to explore it than close it up.

You never know we may even agree on something , now that the heat is off.

Some try to push a revisionist narrative now , that we should have reacted like Sweden.

The fact is we locked down very much in line with most countries in the World, less than some, more than others and we rolled out a fast and extensive vaccination rollout.

We are seen as having done ok in terms of world deaths from Covid and while struggling with our healthcare system still, unfortunately, ( no surprise there! ) economically it has been more positive and we have dodged that bullet.

Sweden reacted differently in the first year but from Dec 2020 on, took on a moderate level of restrictions and a big vaccine rollout too. Their healthcare system is very superior to ours and they have recovered well from their extremely poor first year of Covid.

This is reality. Not ideal in either case at all.

They are not the worst, nor were we in locking down.

People denying that they took any measures are either delusional or have an anti restriction etc agenda.

I have a pro restriction agenda and I admit it but can see the middle ground (not the extreme.. too far)

The figures have been bandied about, studies have been linked to and still people are arguing over minutiae.

Sweden learned from the rest of Europe in that first year when their deaths were rocketing and their hospitals were getting close to full, and that is why they changed tack but that is never admitted.

Yes maybe we can learn from them but what it is, is only now becoming clear.

Healthcare preparedness is one of the areas where we can learn from the Swedes so that the worst effects of lockdown on healthcare can be avoided.

But in there also has to be a recognition that lock down in the severest waves without vaccination or immunity, saves lives.

They did not do this and suffered in that first year more than they should have we know.

Denying it and fudging figures for the past 3 years is nonsense.

That is not a true comparison because so many elderly and sick people died in 2020 and the first half of 2021. it meant that they had less elderly and vulnerable to die from Covid in the following years as well as the fact that they had revised the way they treated their elderly and vulnerable populations

This makes comparisons for the 2nd and third years untenable.

The true comparison is March to Dec 2020 which has been said here before.

The trick is coming out of lockdown at the right time and how to lighten restrictions which I agree they got better than us, but again they had a better healthcare system to support that.

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120833492#Comment_120833492

I don't know, when Sweden itself performed a volte face, it doesn't seem like they were onto a winner.

Economically, they definitely weren't.

So you need to define what your success criteria are first.

If it happened again, very few countries would follow the Swedish model.

And do remember, the model they were chasing was mass infections for herd immunity not using vaccinations, which fell apart when coronavirus antibody counts started dropping off and reinfection occurred.

TheProudHighway

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120840269#Comment_120840269

Sweden performed a “volte face” did they? When was that? What did they do exactly?

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120842974#Comment_120842974

I suggest, as a new user to boards, it's worth reading the thread first as it's outlined in detail throughout.

Even GoldenGirl's post just before mine alludes to the differences.

But, as you're here, what do you think of Sweden's efforts to pursue herd immunity without vaccines? Was it successful?

TheProudHighway

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120843302#Comment_120843302

You suggested that Sweden made a complete turnaround in their response. They didn’t.

TheProudHighway

But as you said it maybe you can name all these changes they made? Should be very easy for you.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120843519#Comment_120843519

Easy for anyone they are well documented.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120843508#Comment_120843508

They went from advisories to changing laws, regulation.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120828828#Comment_120828828

Its just as likely that Sweden's health system being far superior to Irelands, has always outperformed it. Before during and after lockdown. Irish system has been in crisis for a quarter of century.

Another difference is Swedish culture largely follows rules and advise. Irish culture largely doesn't.

https://www.scandikitchen.co.uk/how-to-queue/

TheProudHighway

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120948050#Comment_120948050

Well documented? Show me then. You are the one who said it, you must prove it.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120948270#Comment_120948270

Actually it was you who claimed they didn't change their response, without any proof. The obligation is on you to show they didn't change anything but stuck to their original plan.

As I said they changed their law as one example, of their changing response. All that's needed is one example to void any argument they didn't change anything, but carried on as normal.

Flinty997

Sweden...

https://youtu.be/fvFZULPiiuk

https://youtu.be/v8_7yPocGPg

Culturally self isolate and follow rules.

Ireland had lockdown parties, on the beach with hundreds of people...or Golf clubs.

jackboy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120948076#Comment_120948076

The cultural aspect will probably never be accurately quantified. Saying certain rules and regulations worked or did not work will rarely be provable.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120948556#Comment_120948556

True.

They do have approximate statistics on remote working, people not travelling, and not gathering, cancellation of events, things like that. There was very high compliance with the advisories.

Laughable to compare that with Ireland putting in all these strict restrictions people complaining bitterly about it, while a lot mostly ignoring them.

daithi7

https://www.newstalk.com/news/luke-oneill-4000-steps-a-day-are-all-you-need-1497703

"....Walking during COVID

One odd observation Prof O’Neill found was the amount people walk reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic. 

“A US-based study followed 5,500 people,” he explained. “It tracked them before and during the pandemic and there was 600 less steps per day on average. 

“It’s interesting because we talked about this excess death rate in the pandemic – an extra number of people who otherwise would not have died. 

“Maybe a factor here was less exercise might feed into that excess.” 

Prof O’Neill said many people in their 60s, people from working class backgrounds, and people with more psychological stress took less steps. 

“They must have been stressed [during the pandemic] and weren’t taking their exercise,” he said. 

The study also found walking overall is an extremely effective form of health treatment. 

“Lifestyle can be as good as any pharmaceutical intervention,” Prof O’Neill said. 

“There's a big rage now around drugs to decrease weight, but you just need to take more exercise – it's kind of obvious.” 

daithi7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120998686#Comment_120998686

Of course people in Ireland were limited in how far they could go from their home, to work from home, no unnecessary trips, etc, etc, etc all contributing to less activity & daily exercise, etc. I.e. lockdown impacted people's health negatively & cost lives

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120998688#Comment_120998688

You can run a marathon on a treadmill....

https://lovindublin.com/news/dublin-man-running-backyard-marathon-in-his-tiny-garden-for-charity

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120998686#Comment_120998686

You can't out walk your mouth....

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2010/sep/19/exercise-dieting-public-health

daithi7

The fact is that Ireland's lockdown measures directly reduced Irish people's activity levels over ~ 2 years. (& maybe longer due to lifestyle & habit changes, etc, etc).

This reduction in activity levels has impacted hugely on people's health (cardiovascular & other). This negative effect on people's health due to lockdown measures, allied with things like increased stress from being locked down, & postponed or cancelled health screenings & elective procedures, are very likely to be leading causes of our unusually high excess death rates both during & since lockdown imho.... e.g. people are still dying today as a result of our draconian lockdown measures...

Lockdown hurt Irish people's health & both cost & is costing a lot of lives. The prescribed 'cure' was likely much more harmful than the disease imho.

P.s. Sweden's low excess deaths and Ireland's high excess death rate now & since the start of covid should be telling people something significant imho!!

Flinty997

Our health system has been in crisis for a quarter of century. Lockdown made it worse, but it's a false narrative to suggest lockdown is a primary cause of all the issues with our health system.

Parks were full, big increase in cycling, cycling infrastructure, there's been a change in peoples priorities back on their own well being. Lots of increases in sales of sports and fitness gear.

We are well past lockdown. People shouldn't be still locked down in their head with lockdown. Lockdown isn't the cause of everything.

daithi7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121006984#Comment_121006984

Ireland's health system was just as bad (if not worse) pre covid. These excess deaths are compared to that period. So the health service thing is a complete red herring imho.

I.e. the health service hasn't changed much, but lockdown changed people's lives, lifestyles & their health very much for the worse!

P.s. lockdown & it's resultant effects have lead to extremely high excess death rates in Ireland. Meanwhile, lax Sweden have the lowest excess death rates in Europe since the start of covid.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121007099#Comment_121007099

If it's a red herring maybe stop referring to it.

I doubt anyone made lifestyle change so drastic to cause death in a year. It's not like the lock down was constant.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121006504#Comment_121006504

That hangover in our health service has been very consistently reflected in our excess deaths since early 2021 too.

For all our lockdowns throughout 2021 and into 2022, Sweden has had far fewer excess deaths in the last 2 years, and broadly similar before that. And their performance has at least equalled their neighbours like Norway, too.

Extreme policies require extreme justification - and with years of data its now very clear Ireland's strictest lockdowns in Europe didn't result in a better performance than Sweden. They were the wrong policy.

Sconsey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121008512#Comment_121008512

You're some clown if you think Ireland had the strictest lockdown in Europe, I have friends in France that were only allowed to leave the house on certain days to go to the supermarket, far stricter than Ireland. Stop making up bullsh1t.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121008512#Comment_121008512

The excess deaths - do not appear to be age adjusted. So it is meaningless to make comparisons from them wrt policies, either to Ireland past or with other countries.

We did not have the 'strictest' lockdowns in Europe. In some countries, you needed signed paperwork to leave your home. France had curfews at times when we did not.

Assuming Swedish type results would have followed in Ireland or elsewhere from a Swedish type approach is an assumption made without foundation.

It was discredited in 2020 when England tried to follow something similar to Swedish approach and had to abandon it as hospitals started to fill up.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121008532#Comment_121008532

I wasn't posting my own "made up opinion". The University of Oxford has literal rankings of lockdown severity, objectively measured, and through April 2020 -> January 2022 Ireland had stricter lockdowns than France. Not that we have anything to show for that.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121008544#Comment_121008544

Ireland has a far younger population profile than Sweden (or almost anywhere else in Europe). If they were age adjusted Ireland would compare even worse.

When attempting to justify extreme measures like we had in Ireland you need extreme results to validate them. Which we don't have. The deaths speak for themselves, the policy was a failure.

According to objective measures by the University of Oxford we had much stricter lockdowns than France, and almost anywhere else in Europe.

England changed policy due to political pressure, but lockdowns didn't work for them either - Sweden has lower excess deaths than England, too.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121008594#Comment_121008594

Irelands lockdown was never as strict as Frances strictest lockdown in 2020. If the study treats Irelands lockdown as being as strict as Frances when you needed paperwork to leave your house then it is not a reliable guide to "strictest'.

The stats arent age adjusted to take into account demographic changes over time within Ireland. Irelands relative profile to other countries is irrelevent. You dont seem to understand how excess deaths are calculated therefore you are misrepresenting the excess deaths stats.

Talk of 'extreme' is an entirely prejudicial premise.

England didnt change course due to political pressure. Another false statement. They changed course due to pressures on hospital capacity. The politicians tried to avoid locking down which was a costly mistake in lives.

There is therefore no evidential basis to state that Swedish results would follow elsewhere which is the implication in your post.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121008512#Comment_121008512

I would assume Sweden has fewer excess deaths going back to maybe as far as the 1960s when they set about changing their health care system into the world class system they have today.

I'm not sure why you'd only look at lockdown excess stats from 2021 when lockdown started a year earlier and with greater restrictions. In fact by 2021 Sweden had brought in it's own restrictions. So even Sweden wasn't following it's original policy.

Sconsey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121008594#Comment_121008594

You're right, for a brief period there between May and June of 2020, and again between Jan and February of 2021, Ireland had the strictest lockdown of the 7 countries the tool let me select.

So over the course of three years it looks like we may have been the strictest for three months, maybe four. While counties like Austria, Greece, Italy had much longer periods of being the strictest. I have a feeling if I could add more than seven countries Ireland's figures would be diluted even more.

How does that clearly make Ireland the strictest lockdowns in Europe (that's your words not mine)?

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121008594#Comment_121008594

First, you have incorrectly displayed the graphs in the Oxford Covid Stringency Index ..the axes need to be aligned before you over lay them .

In all the indices France and Belgium are higher than Ireland which while not the lowest is somewhere surprisingly in the middle . Here's the complete link if anybody else wants to look at it instead of your screenshot . .

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-stringency-index

Secondly and yes we have discussed this before ..you may have missed it ..age related adjustment is in relation to deaths , not population , and it changes the figures very much . In our favour .

If you want to look at Stringent lockdowns look up Belgium's ...now that was strict !