The maths of it all and what it means to Ireland

Hmmzis

ShineOn7 wrote: »

In layman terms could you describe the difference between the two?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rice_distribution

I think it's more to do with our lack of test-trace-isolate capacity and ability. While the initial surge will basically always follow a Gausian curve (steeper or flatter would be the only difference) the other end could look quite different, depending on how many susceptible people are available for infection and how well contained the known infections are.

The better the test-trace-isolate ability and capacity, the steeper the tailoff.

At least that's how I understand it.

Jurgen Klopp

Just gonna leave this here

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1254160937805926405

ShineOn7

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

Just gonna leave this here

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1254160937805926405

Complete and utter shambolic cúnts

(Sometimes no other word sums up people/a person)

Jurgen Klopp

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Complete and utter shambolic cúnts

(Sometimes no other word sums up people/a person)

Ah no that's not fair...

I'd just assume China has an antibody test just about ready for sale

Kinda like how every treatment they don't own the patent for they dismiss with a "nope doesn't work" within a few days of it being mentioned

drunkmonkey

Any county flu stats for Ireland, or even the breakdown of how Tony is revealing the numbers, 10 in the south etc, would be interesting to see a similar breakdown here.

PommieBast

ShineOn7 wrote: »

In layman terms could you describe the difference between the two?

The right-hand tail-off. Was on the vino at the time and drifted out of AH, hence the terseness



Rather than a nice slope Germany has what looks a bit like a mountain range, though this may be an artifact of reporting cycles rather than infection since peaks are midweek.

Hmmzis wrote: »

The better the test-trace-isolate ability and capacity, the steeper the tailoff.

At the very least some sort of randomised testing would help. Without that there's no real idea how many people are symptom-less carriers.

Danno

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

Just gonna leave this here

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1254160937805926405

I guess Trump was right to cut their funding. Absolute U-turn there.

drunkmonkey

Danno wrote: »

I guess Trump was right to cut their funding. Absolute U-turn there.

Not the only thing he might have had an insight into, https://aytubio.com/healight/
It's a real company with a market cap of 127.33 million who've just had their account suspended by YouTube and Twitter.

ShineOn7

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Any county flu stats for Ireland, or even the breakdown of how Tony is revealing the numbers, 10 in the south etc, would be interesting to see a similar breakdown here.

I think the Flu Vs Covid numbers are pointless. It's a years worth of cases (Flu) Vs 4-6 weeks of cases (Covid)

joe_99

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I think the Flu Vs Covid numbers are pointless. It's a years worth of cases (Flu) Vs 4-6 weeks of cases (Covid)

6 weeks of virtual lockdown as well

joe_99

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Not the only thing he might have had an insight into, https://aytubio.com/healight/
It's a real company with a market cap of 127.33 million who've just had their account suspended by YouTube and Twitter.

It was the injecting of Dettol that got the laughs

wakka12

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Any county flu stats for Ireland, or even the breakdown of how Tony is revealing the numbers, 10 in the south etc, would be interesting to see a similar breakdown here.

Those stats are very outdated though, many states have double or more those figures now

It still remains very surprising though how few deaths have occurred in Florida Texas and California compared to the North East of the country

Blut2

wakka12 wrote: »

Those stats are very outdated though, many states have double or more those figures now

It still remains very surprising though how few deaths have occurred in Florida Texas and California compared to the North East of the country

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767

Weather could be a factor. Research so far shows for every 10C increase in temperature theres about a 0.25 drop in the r0 number. And every 10% increase in humidity reduces the r0 by 0.16. So with a 20C temperature difference, and 20% humidity increase, between Miami and Boston for example this month on average, that'd be enough to bring the r2.5 down to r1.7. Not enough to stop the spread of the virus, but enough to slow it down a lot.

This is also likely why countries in South-East Asia are doing so comparatively well.

yosemitesam1

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Any county flu stats for Ireland, or even the breakdown of how Tony is revealing the numbers, 10 in the south etc, would be interesting to see a similar breakdown here.

Those figures aren't comparable. Flu deaths figures are because of flu, covid deaths are with covid which exaggerates the lethality of covid

drunkmonkey

I really hope this isn't happening in any shape or form here, US hospitals get paid more for Covid patients.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/24/fact-check-medicare-hospitals-paid-more-covid-19-patients-coronavirus/3000638001/

yosemitesam1

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Those figures aren't comparable. Flu deaths figures are because of flu, covid deaths are with covid which exaggerates the lethality of covid

Source? Where is the evidence Covid deaths are reported differently to Flu. Also in a lot of cases Flu is clinically diagnosed and not confirmed through testing thus potentially exaggerating flu numbers

yosemitesam1

Deleted User wrote: »

Source? Where is the evidence Covid deaths are reported differently to Flu. Also in a lot of cases Flu is clinically diagnosed and not confirmed through testing thus potentially exaggerating flu numbers

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-51979654

Totally different methodologies.

wakka12

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-51979654

Totally different methodologies.

What is even the point of bringing all this up when in the very link you posted it says
'The Office for National Statistics has tried to shed light on this. It looked at nearly 4,000 deaths in England and Wales during March.

There were two main findings. Firstly, the virus was the cause of the majority of deaths, not other factors.'

So like flu, covid deaths are because of covid

yosemitesam1

wakka12 wrote: »

What is even the point of bringing all this up when in the very link you posted it says
'The Office for National Statistics has tried to shed light on this. It looked at nearly 4,000 deaths in England and Wales during March.

There were two main findings. Firstly, the virus was the cause of the majority of deaths, not other factors.'

So like flu, covid deaths are because of covid

The ons reckoned 86% of the died from covid, 14% weren't so why count them as if they were? Maybe there's more...

Currently we underestimate the amount of total infected due to our testing structure and overestimate the mortality. If the official figures can't be accurate or give good estimates wtf is the point of all this?

wakka12

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

The ons reckoned 86% of the died from covid, 14% weren't so why count them as if they were? Maybe there's more...

Currently we underestimate the amount of total infected due to our testing structure and overestimate the mortality. If the official figures can't be accurate or give good estimates wtf is the point of all this?

The number of people who have died from COVID is thought to be underestimated by up to 50% across Europe as most countries have not reported any nursing home or home deaths yet officially. Across the world in places like Iran and Ecuador and Indonesia this figure is likely considerably higher. So the coronavirus deaths worldwide are being very significantly underestimated, not overestimated.

The only places where deaths by COVID might be overstimated is Belgium, Ireland, New York, where probable deaths are counted as well. But even in these places the number of 'overestimated' deaths will be a small number, and COVID will still be a contributing factor in those deaths regardless. It just seems like nit picking really.

The number of cases will be assessed through antibody testing soon, until that point it is important to take good count of the death toll in order to ascertain an accurate mortality rate.

yosemitesam1

wakka12 wrote: »

The number of people who have died from COVID is thought to be underestimated by up to 50% across Europe as most countries have not reported any nursing home or home deaths yet officially. Across the world in places like Iran and Ecuador and Indonesia this figure is likely considerably higher. So the coronavirus deaths worldwide are being very significantly underestimated, not overestimated.

The only places where deaths by COVID might be overstimated is Belgium, Ireland, New York, where probable deaths are counted as well. But even in these places the number of 'overestimated' deaths will be a small number, and COVID will still be a contributing factor in those deaths regardless. It just seems like nit picking really.

The number of cases will be assessed through antibody testing soon, until that point it is important to take good count of the death toll in order to ascertain an accurate mortality rate.

There isn't room in the euromomo figures for European covid deaths to be underestimated by anywhere near 50%.

A "good count" of the death toll isn't everything with a positive or assumed positive test, it is a realistic assessment.

wakka12

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

There isn't room in the euromomo figures for European covid deaths to be underestimated by anywhere near 50%.

A "good count" of the death toll isn't everything with a positive or assumed positive test, it is a realistic assessment.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html
Financial times estimates up to 22,500 unreported covid deaths in a sample of just 5 european countries alone as of 5th April, deaths in many european countries have doubled since then

Deaths are 4x times higher now in the UK, 4x times higher in Germany since 5th April as well

yosemitesam1

wakka12 wrote: »

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html
Financial times estimates up to 22,500 unreported covid deaths in a sample of just 5 european countries alone as of 5th April, deaths in many european countries have doubled since then

Deaths are 4x times higher now in the UK, 4x times higher in Germany since 5th April as well

Look at the excess death figures on the euromomo website.
Take the European coronavirus deaths from the cumulative excess figure for 2020 and there isn't much room for the coronavirus deaths to be underestimated unless lots of deaths that would have happened anyway are assigned to coronavirus.

IAMAMORON

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Not the only thing he might have had an insight into, https://aytubio.com/healight/
It's a real company with a market cap of 127.33 million who've just had their account suspended by YouTube and Twitter.

Very interesting.

If Australia, Argentina and other deep southern hemisphere countries show marked increase in cases as their winter draws in this will have to raise a few eyebrows.

IAMAMORON

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Very interesting.

If Australia, Argentina and other deep southern hemisphere countries show marked increase in cases as their winter draws in this will have to raise a few eyebrows.

How is the southern hemishere ozone layer hole at the moment? Could put the New Zealand numbers in another context if, big if, there is anything to this

IAMAMORON

Deleted User wrote: »

How is the southern hemishere ozone layer hole at the moment? Could put the New Zealand numbers in another context if, big if, there is anything to this

I am the wrong person to ask. I am not an environmentalist, given everyone else is I am adopting the 50/50 chance that someone is right and everyone else is wrong. I have no choice in the matter, if you think about it hard enough you should realise that you don't either. I don't like my odds to be honest, but someone will win and the rules will be enforced.

But the virus has not survived well on the Equator and in the southern hemisphere. Albeit Ecuador looks nasty. It will be interesting to see if the virus does get worse as the winter develops in the southern hemispeher. It looks to be very robust and survives on cold surfaces, but if you factor in heat and the UV rays?

ShineOn7

I'm all read out on articles for today but leaving this here for anyone who wants to dive in


"Experts demolish studies suggesting COVID-19 is no worse than flu

Authors of widely publicized antibody studies “owe us all an apology,” one expert says"

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/experts-demolish-studies-suggesting-covid-19-is-no-worse-than-flu/

Hmmzis

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I'm all read out on articles for today but leaving this here for anyone who wants to dive in


"Experts demolish studies suggesting COVID-19 is no worse than flu

Authors of widely publicized antibody studies “owe us all an apology,” one expert says"

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/experts-demolish-studies-suggesting-covid-19-is-no-worse-than-flu/

I did find their IFR numbers a bit on the low side when they came out. Didn't quite tally up with the other studies and the 'controls'that are Iceland and Korea. Was still willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. It's been well and proper analyzed and reviewed now, next time they'll do better I hope.

ShineOn7

Hmmzis wrote: »

I did find their IFR numbers a bit on the low side when they came out. Didn't quite tally up with the other studies and the 'controls'that are Iceland and Korea. Was still willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. It's been well and proper analyzed and reviewed now, next time they'll do better I hope.

Hmmzis, what do you believe the IFR to be at?

wakka12

Yeh I think the way they gathered the candidates was a major flaw. Any accurate tests need to be based on random sampling. Self volunteered candidates will draw people who believe or suspect they have had COVID already, and will skew the result, probably in a massive way