Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

JimmyVik · 09-07-2020 10:53am

Claw Hammer wrote: »

A lot of landlords don't want to reduce rents because of being caught by the rent. Many are holding out until the autumn in the hope that the market will yield greater rents than now. Traditionally there was a slump in the summer followed by high demand in the autumn. Whether it happens this year are not remained to be seen.

I know one who is empty now and he will leave it empty until next year if he doesnt get anyone.
His reasoning in that a lot of landlords will sell up now (He would too but his wife wont let him). He thinks there will be a big shortatge of properties to rent this time next year when thigs are back to normal. Students back, foreign students back, tourism back etc. So he says its just too much hassle to rent for less money, so if he doesnt get the price he wants he will leave it and wait. He is not going to reduce rent now and then run the risk of being locked in low again when things are back to normal.
Now thats just one. But I see the thinking behind it.

He also said.
If he got anyone in now they could just not pay the rent until the eviction freeze is over. Then if they still decided not to pay the rent god only knows how long the RTB backlog to get them out. Not worth it with the amount of tax on the rent or the constantly changing legislation.
He will call the wifes bluff and she will agree to sell it next year if things dont pick up.

His current tenants went home to Poland at the start of Covid and havent paid rent since. They only told him last week they were gone for good. It was all excuses up til then about waiting for money from social welfare because they lost their jobs. I suppose he can count himself lucky, they could have stung that out longer. At least now they have officially left and he can move on.

Topgear on Dave · 09-07-2020 10:59am

+1 JimmyVik, Iv been wondering the same. We may see a short term dip in rental costs.

But long term those students that have all gone home, they will be coming back in large numbers.
These eviction bans and rent controls etc etc may scare even more LLs out of the business. Where will we be in 2-4 years?

Claw Hammer · 09-07-2020 11:00am

awec wrote: »

According to the Daft report today Dublin rents rose 0.5%, which is inconsequential so we may as well say that rents remained steady. However, supply rose 63% year-on-year. Sixty three percent.

I find these numbers pretty incredible. For supply to rise so significantly and have no negative impact on rents is quite something. At a time when there's no students and no tourists, and people who can WFH are WFH.

Is it because landlords aren't desperate yet? Mortgage payment breaks?

Really interested to hear the theories on this one!

Daft is basing its report on asking rents, not those actually achieved. Since the final quarter was March 2 June the figures presented only represent asking prices during the lockdown when there was very little activity. Supply has risen but because of the rent Asking prices have not dropped. Outside of Dublin and to some extent Galway there has been little increase in supply, if any.

PommieBast · 09-07-2020 11:23am

awec wrote: »

I find these numbers pretty incredible. For supply to rise so significantly and have no negative impact on rents is quite something. At a time when there's no students and no tourists, and people who can WFH are WFH.

A lot of stuff being dumped on the market is student accommodation or short-term let, which are patently unsuitable for renters still in the market. I suspect some vested interests are also doing things to help skew the figures.

PommieBast · 09-07-2020 11:31am

JimmyVik wrote: »

They only told him last week they were gone for good. It was all excuses up til then about waiting for money from social welfare because they lost their jobs. I suppose he can count himself lucky, they could have stung that out longer. At least now they have officially left and he can move on.

I think that is going to become a very common story. Lot of people in the near future are going to be claiming no past landlords.

perfectkama · 10-07-2020 7:32am

Not all places will come back on the market there has been a tree shake of weaker indebted LLs
Some places that become empty might need extensive reworks
LLs may sell or those who may hold till the market sorts itself out will not relet as it would only complicate future sale.
Less quality tenants in the market and time wasting bargain hunter viewings maybe deemed best avoided by LLs
An abundance of student accommodation this could be used for homeless shelters as the need for less density in this type of accommodation they are staying in hotels now and as travel comes back rooms will be needed for tourists.
Less density in house/apartment shares may have created demand
Short term letting LLs that can afford will hold off.
IMO

mrslancaster · 10-07-2020 5:38pm

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

....But long term those students that have all gone home, they will be coming back in large numbers.
These eviction bans and rent controls etc etc may scare even more LLs out of the business. Where will we be in 2-4 years?

Are student accommodations the same now as all others under the RTB?

What will happen if those student places have been let short-term and the tenants will not leave and can't be evicted?

Will the university authorities / student apartment blocks owners have to use the same lengthy RTB process to get their units back?

polaco · 10-07-2020 6:45pm

Smouse156 wrote: »

Dropped again:

1-bed €1822 to €1781 (5% Drop from €1872)
2-bed €1977 to €1884 (9% drop from €2071)

They actually gone none left I went for viewing today so only 2beds left for 2100e.
There were few people interested in those mostly Indian people.

Smouse156 · 10-07-2020 10:37pm

polaco wrote: »

They actually gone none left I went for viewing today so only 2beds left for 2100e.
There were few people interested in those mostly Indian people.

Maybe the latest drop did the trick

Ozark707 · 10-07-2020 11:10pm

Smouse156 wrote: »

Maybe the latest drop did the trick

Yep no doubt the market is very active at rates which are competitive. It would be good if some of the major developments sitting relatively idle closer to town followed this lead and similarly dropped the rent to market clearing prices.

JimmyVik · 12-07-2020 4:13pm

beauf wrote: »

People said AirBnB rentals coming on to the market would have drastic effect on rents and supply. Others said they aren't enough in the context of the overall numbers of rentals and the price point in the market.

Not anymore. Story in the news today that councils are planning on buying up all the ex airbnbs from anyone who has one. If they dont want to sell to the council the council will rent long term for 25 years from them.

polaco · 12-07-2020 5:02pm

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/work/my-rent-here-is-so-low-it-s-a-joke-1.4298379

"My rent here is so low its a joke. I’m about to move into a 90 square metre [just under 1,000sq ft] apartment for €950 per month with my boyfriend and dogs"

She is paying 950€ for 1000 sq ft apartment in Hamburg Germany this only proves how expensive is Dublin

perfectkama · 12-07-2020 9:15pm

And the BMWs are a lot cheaper than here may we price control them too

Yellow_Fern · 12-07-2020 9:29pm

polaco wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/work/my-rent-here-is-so-low-it-s-a-joke-1.4298379

"My rent here is so low its a joke. I’m about to move into a 90 square metre [just under 1,000sq ft] apartment for €950 per month with my boyfriend and dogs"

She is paying 950€ for 1000 sq ft apartment in Hamburg Germany this only proves how expensive is Dublin

Germany has a much older population, they have less growth than us, less growth in salaries, interest rates are far lower there, and they have a much greater % of apartments being constructed relative to houses. In addition they have a much more mature REIT sector that might have an impact.

brisan · 13-07-2020 6:45am

Deleted User wrote: »

How many of those were let?

I'm seeing a lot of fingers in the ears from landlords expecting to just get the same amount.

I don't think the market will see the covid effect for another 12-18 months personally.

They don't (or don't want to )believe the gravy train has stopped

brisan · 13-07-2020 6:50am

JimmyVik wrote: »

I know one who is empty now and he will leave it empty until next year if he doesnt get anyone.
His reasoning in that a lot of landlords will sell up now (He would too but his wife wont let him). He thinks there will be a big shortatge of properties to rent this time next year when thigs are back to normal. Students back, foreign students back, tourism back etc. So he says its just too much hassle to rent for less money, so if he doesnt get the price he wants he will leave it and wait. He is not going to reduce rent now and then run the risk of being locked in low again when things are back to normal.
Now thats just one. But I see the thinking behind it.

He also said.
If he got anyone in now they could just not pay the rent until the eviction freeze is over. Then if they still decided not to pay the rent god only knows how long the RTB backlog to get them out. Not worth it with the amount of tax on the rent or the constantly changing legislation.
He will call the wifes bluff and she will agree to sell it next year if things dont pick up.
His current tenants went home to Poland at the start of Covid and havent paid rent since. They only told him last week they were gone for good. It was all excuses up til then about waiting for money from social welfare because they lost their jobs. I suppose he can count himself lucky, they could have stung that out longer. At least now they have officially left and he can move on.

Chap is living in cloud cuckoo land
I can only assume he has no mortgage on the property.
Others are not so fortunate

Dav010 · 13-07-2020 7:32am

brisan wrote: »

Chap is living in cloud cuckoo land
I can only assume he has no mortgage on the property.
Others are not so fortunate

There is an article in yesterday’s Times about this. There is a bottleneck in the sale of property, particularly in Dublin as LLs look to leave the rental sector. The hold up is being caused by the eviction ban, LLs are waiting for tenants to leave and are exiting the rental market, JimmyViks friend might be smarter than you think.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eviction-ban-leads-to-sales-bottleneck-x98thgbtr

I think the main concern LLs have with dropping rent is the RPZ regs on future increases.

runswithascript · 15-07-2020 1:58pm

Dav010 wrote: »

JimmyViks friend might be smarter than you think.

Perhaps, or perhaps he is needlessly hoarding property that could instead be occupied for a fair rent by fair tenants. Personally I hope he has made the wrong decision, rents stay down, and his reward for hoarding is to be out of pocket.

Dav010 wrote: »

I think the main concern LLs have with dropping rent is the RPZ regs on future increases.

There is much condemnation of rent pressure zone measures in this thread but is there any suggestion of a viable alternative that landlords would be happier with - that more importantly does not leave tenants at the mercy of money grabbing unscrupulous landlords?

This thread also seems to be largely informed by landlords with vested interests, whose concerns, some of which may be valid and fair, should never be what is used to shape long term policy entirely. The primary focus of policy should be making more property available at more reasonable rates for decent and responsible tenants, not those who take advantage of their landlords, for instance pleading poverty when that is not the case etc. I accept that if landlords find the market too unfavourable they may exit it, and also that everyone is entitled to make a profit but really when I read comments in this thread that suggest a landlord can no longer charge the premium rates they had been - accidental landlords aside - cry me a river.

Of course there are decent, responsible, and fair landlords, and I have met some, but unfortunately they do not seem to be in the majority.

JimmyVik · 15-07-2020 2:01pm

runswithascript wrote: »

Perhaps, or perhaps he is needlessly hoarding property that could instead be occupied for a fair rent by fair tenants. Personally I hope he has made the wrong decision, rents stay down, and his reward for hoarding is to be out of pocket.

There is much condemnation of rent pressure zone measures in this thread but is there any suggestion of a viable alternative that landlords would be happier with - that more importantly does not leave tenants at the mercy of money grabbing unscrupulous landlords?

This thread also seems to be largely informed by landlords with vested interests, whose concerns, some of which may be valid and fair, should never be what is used to shape long term policy entirely. The primary focus of policy should be making more property available at more reasonable rates for decent and responsible tenants, not those who take advantage of their landlords, for instance pleading poverty when that is not the case etc. I accept that if landlords find the market too unfavourable they may exit it, and also that everyone is entitled to make a profit but really when I read comments in this thread that suggest a landlord can no longer charge the premium rates they had been - accidental landlords aside - cry me a river.

Of course there are decent, responsible, and fair landlords, and I have met some, but unfortunately they do not seem to be in the majority.

Oh he would love to rent it at a fair rent to a fair tenant. But he is not allowed.
So he would like to sell it. But he is not allowed.

The_Conductor · 15-07-2020 2:17pm

runswithascript wrote: »

The primary focus of policy should be making more property available at more reasonable rates for decent and responsible tenants, not those who take advantage of their landlords, for instance pleading poverty when that is not the case etc. I accept that if landlords find the market too unfavourable they may exit it, and also that everyone is entitled to make a profit but really when I read comments in this thread that suggest a landlord can no longer charge the premium rates they had been - accidental landlords aside - cry me a river.

Of course there are decent, responsible, and fair landlords, and I have met some, but unfortunately they do not seem to be in the majority.

Personally I think the primary focus should be to fundamentally reform the provision of local authority and social housing- remove the ability to buy LA housing altogether- and to set a target to move all people currently renting with the assistance of HAP (or under other schemes) from private landlords- and move them into local authority housing.

One of the biggest mistakes this country ever made (and we've made many) was allowing Local Authorities to divest of social housing (and indeed- to facilitate LA tenants to purchase LA housing stock).

All the Housing Associations should be wound down into the LAs- and there should be a single housing section associated with the provision of residential accommodation to those who are incapable of housing themselves.

The Housing Associations are already in some financial difficulties (as their borrowings are counted against government debt- which wasn't supposed to happen- and was the genesis of their raison d'etre).

Get all social housing and tenants reliant on housing assistance- out of the private rental accommodation sector.

Why the provision of social housing was offloaded on the private sector- is a conundrum that no-one can satisfactorily answer.

zweton · 15-07-2020 3:25pm

Anyone seeing rents dropping outside of Dublin? Specifically the mid west ?

The_Conductor · 15-07-2020 3:37pm

zweton wrote: »

Anyone seeing rents dropping outside of Dublin? Specifically the mid west ?

Still increasing in Galway city- no idea of anywhere else.......

redarmyblues · 15-07-2020 10:20pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

Still increasing in Galway city- no idea of anywhere else.......

Anecdotally at least the west is seeing homeworkers relocate from Dublin.

The_Conductor · 16-07-2020 11:28am

redarmyblues wrote: »

Anecdotally at least the west is seeing homeworkers relocate from Dublin.

Perhaps- SIRO has gone live in lots of areas- so many parts of the west have faster and cheaper BB than you can get in Dublin- perfect for WFH situations.

ebayissues · 16-07-2020 1:22pm

Has anyone here sucessfully asked for a rent reduction?

16-07-2020 2:22pm

ebayissues wrote: »

Has anyone here sucessfully asked for a rent reduction?

Yes, got Euro 160 per month knocked off my place.

The_Conductor · 16-07-2020 2:24pm

WasBornToBoogie wrote: »

Yes, got Euro 160 per month knocked off my place.

Officially- via a formal rent review- or as an informal arrangement?
Aka- is the headline rent associated with the unit reset to a lower level- or are you simply paying a lower amount with the agreement of the landlord?

Assetbacked · 17-07-2020 11:07am

ebayissues wrote: »

Has anyone here sucessfully asked for a rent reduction?

No, we're actually faring well financially during the pandemic. We have a lease until February 2021 but won't be staying on as we want to rent a house with a garden in order to have a cat. If we were staying on and our lease was due to finish in the next couple of months I wouldn't try to break the balls of the landlord but I would say that we are reducing our budget by 200 a month as we noticed there are lots of apartments we would move to within that price range so this is our reason for moving and leave it open like that.

Just on rents reducing, there is definitely a trend emerging of quite big rent drops. My search on Daft is for houses at 2300 max rent;

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/dublin-2/eblana-villas-hogan-place-dublin-2-dublin-2036048/ this is a 2 bedroom house in a prime location near Grand Canal Dock and has dropped its rent by 250 to 2000. It has been listed since 3 June and from what I can tell, it is quite nice inside.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/ringsend/6-gordon-street-ringsend-ringsend-dublin-2051392/ not a price drop but 288 views in a day for a 2 bed house in Ringsend at 2k is pithy.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/clontarf/5-saint-josephs-square-clontarf-dublin-2044077/ a nice looking house in Clontarf has dropped from 2.5k to 2.1k since it was first listed on 25 June.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/donnybrook/pembroke-cottages-donnybrook-dublin-2048123/ a D4 cottage has knocked 210 off its asking price since it was listed on 7 July so it is now asking 1990. It's a bit small but I'd live in it (repplacing the couches and getting a coffee table), it's grand.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/goatstown/birchfield-lawn-goatstown-dublin-2051349/ a 4 bedroom house in Goatstown for less than 2k, that's a first! I'm guessing it had students before as it looks terrible inside.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/harolds-cross/35-harolds-cross-cottages-harolds-cross-dublin-2025783/ this house in Harold's Cross has been listed since April, originally at 2k and now is looking for 1.8k

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/dublin-7/arbour-hill-stoneybatter-dublin-7-dublin-2030470/ 2.2k to 1.9k since it was first listed in mid-May in Stoneybatter. Really nice inside as well.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/dublin-2/44-sandwith-street-upper-dublin-2-dublin-2034398/ a house on Sandwith St, great location for workers in Grand Canal Dock and for those who want to be near Trinity/Grafton St. 100 off the asking since it was first listed at the end of May.

brisan · 17-07-2020 11:28am

Assetbacked wrote: »

No, we're actually faring well financially during the pandemic. We have a lease until February 2021 but won't be staying on as we want to rent a house with a garden in order to have a cat. If we were staying on and our lease was due to finish in the next couple of months I wouldn't try to break the balls of the landlord but I would say that we are reducing our budget by 200 a month as we noticed there are lots of apartments we would move to within that price range so this is our reason for moving and leave it open like that.

Just on rents reducing, there is definitely a trend emerging of quite big rent drops. My search on Daft is for houses at 2300 max rent;

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/dublin-2/eblana-villas-hogan-place-dublin-2-dublin-2036048/ this is a 2 bedroom house in a prime location near Grand Canal Dock and has dropped its rent by 250 to 2000. It has been listed since 3 June and from what I can tell, it is quite nice inside.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/ringsend/6-gordon-street-ringsend-ringsend-dublin-2051392/ not a price drop but 288 views in a day for a 2 bed house in Ringsend at 2k is pithy.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/clontarf/5-saint-josephs-square-clontarf-dublin-2044077/ a nice looking house in Clontarf has dropped from 2.5k to 2.1k since it was first listed on 25 June.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/donnybrook/pembroke-cottages-donnybrook-dublin-2048123/ a D4 cottage has knocked 210 off its asking price since it was listed on 7 July so it is now asking 1990. It's a bit small but I'd live in it (repplacing the couches and getting a coffee table), it's grand.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/goatstown/birchfield-lawn-goatstown-dublin-2051349/ a 4 bedroom house in Goatstown for less than 2k, that's a first! I'm guessing it had students before as it looks terrible inside.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/harolds-cross/35-harolds-cross-cottages-harolds-cross-dublin-2025783/ this house in Harold's Cross has been listed since April, originally at 2k and now is looking for 1.8k

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/dublin-7/arbour-hill-stoneybatter-dublin-7-dublin-2030470/ 2.2k to 1.9k since it was first listed in mid-May in Stoneybatter. Really nice inside as well.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/dublin-2/44-sandwith-street-upper-dublin-2-dublin-2034398/ a house on Sandwith St, great location for workers in Grand Canal Dock and for those who want to be near Trinity/Grafton St. 100 off the asking since it was first listed at the end of May.

I know that clontarf area quite well
It looks it was a BTL and the owner who thought he was on to a good thing is panicking over the mortgage.
If you are dependant on public transport the bus service is not great and the DART is a bit of a walk .
That coast road is notoriously busy at peak times with cars and on weekends with visitors to Howth
However its a stones throw (literally ) from the coast with great walks
St annes park is a 10 min walk as well
All in all a great location

The_Conductor · 17-07-2020 11:29am

Nice bit of research there Assetbacked.
Hopefully the RTB/DAFT stats back up this trend.

What will happen is those who managed to get the going rate will reduce- those who got caught out at below market rates, won't budge (and it would be irrational to expect them to).

Property Owners association (or whatever they're called) say there has been an exit of another 4k landlords and 8k tenancies from the market since January.
Not so good for prospective tenants.

Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

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