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April 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 29-03-2020 2:42am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,200 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the I.M.T. (Irish Mean Temperature, average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon) ... the 1981-2010 normal value is 8.4 C.

    2. Predict the MAX temperature at any of 25 regular reporting locations on the met.ie website.

    3. Predict the MIN temperature at any of 25 regular reporting locations on the met.ie website.

    4. Predict the PRC (precipitation) which is the average at eleven locations expressed as a percentage of normal. The stations used are the five in (1) above plus Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) which is the average at six locations expressed as a percentage of normal. The stations used are Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Cork, Shannon and Valentia.

    6. BONUS -- Easter Sunday (12th) -- predict the highest temperature at any location, and the location itself. Temperature worth 7/10 and location 3/10, superbonus points available.

    Forecasts:

    MTC _________ 8.7 _ 20.5 _ -3.7 __ 110 __ 095 ___ 14.9 _ Moorepark

    Normal _______8.4 _ 20.5 _ -2.0 __ 100 __ 100 ___ 13.5 _ loc'n points by climatology



    The on-time deadline is 0300h Wednesday, 1st of April.


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,556 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen _________ 8.9 _ 20.7 _ -3.2 __ 80 __ 100 ___ 16.8 _ Oak Park

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,860 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002 _________ 8.6 _ 20.8 _ -3.2 __ 85 __ 110 ___ 16.2 _ Phoenix Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,714 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal_______8.7 _ 19.7 _ -2.5 __ 90 __ 107 ___ 14.0 _ Mullingar


  • Registered Users Posts: 663 ✭✭✭ Tazio


    Tazio_______9.1 _ 20.0 _ -2.7 __ 75 __ 110 ___ 12.0 _ Cork Airport


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry_______8.8_ 21.6 _ -2 __ 83 __ 111___ 15.0 _ Pheonix Park


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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,563 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ___ 9.0 ___ 21.0 ___ -3.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 16.0 Johnstown Castle


  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    dasa29_______8.2 _ 19.5 _ -1.5 __ 100 __ 110 ___ 16.0 _ Mullingar


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public _______ 8.1 _ 19.2 _ -3.9 __ 99 __ 99 ___ 14.6 _ Oak Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sinflower3 _______ 8.8 _ 22.2 _ -1.9 __ 90__ 105 ___ 16.2_ PhoenixPark


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,996 ✭✭✭ John mac


    John mac _______8.9 _ 22.5 _ -2.5 __ 97 __ 110 ___ 14.5 Mount Dillon


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  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 8.6 ___ 20.8 ___ -2.9 ___ 85 ___ 118 ___ 14.0 ___ Johnstown Castle.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,111 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH _________ 8.3 _ 19.1 _ -2.3 __ 85 __ 112 ___ 15.1 _ Shannon


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa______8.8__ 21.1 __-2.1 __ 122 __ 83__ 14.1 _ Pheonix Park


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts _________ 8.1 _ 18.5 _ -2.7 __ 90 __ 110 ___ 13.9 _ Johnstown Castle


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir _______8.8 _ 21.2 _ -1.4 __ 109 __ 90 ___ 12.8 _ Moore Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    MrSkinner____9.0___20.2___-3.3___88___98___17.2 Johnstown.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn _______8.1 _ 19.5 _ -2.8 __ 90 __ 125 ___ 13.1 _ Phoenix Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 351 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways _______8.8 _ 24.5 _ -3.7 __ 98 __ 103 ___ 16.4 _Shannon Airport


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7 _______8.8 _ 23.3_ -4.3 __ 110 __ 103 ___ 14.0 _Oak Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,200 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for April 2020


    FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 12th loc'n

    Adam240610 __ (-8) _____ 9.4 _ 22.0 _ -4.0 _ 060 _ 130 ___ 16.6 _ Moore park

    Tazio __________________ 9.1 _ 20.0 _ -2.7 _ 075 _ 110 ___ 12.0 _ Cork Airport

    Rikand _________________9.0 _ 21.0 _ -3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 16.0 _ Johnstown Castle

    MrSkinner ______________ 9.0 _ 20.2 _ -3.3 _ 088 _ 098 ___ 17.2 _ Johnstown Castle

    John mac _______________8.9 _ 22.5 _ -2.5 _ 097 _ 110 ___ 14.5 _ Mount Dillon

    sryanbruen _____________ 8.9 _ 20.7 _ -3.2 _ 080 _ 100 ___ 16.8 _ Oak Park

    waterways ____ (-1) _____ 8.8 _ 24.5 _ -3.7 _ 098 _ 103 ___ 16.4 _ Shannon

    BLIZZARD7 ___ (-3) ______8.8 _ 23.3 _ -4.3 _ 110 _ 103 ___ 14.0 _ Oak Park

    Sunflower3 _____________ 8.8 _ 22.2 _ -1.9 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 16.2 _ Phoenix Park

    Pauldry ________________ 8.8 _ 21.6 _ -2.0 _ 083 _ 111 ___ 15.0 _ Phoenix Park

    Tae laidir _______________8.8 _ 21.2 _ -1.4 _ 109 _ 090 ___ 12.8 _ Moore Park

    200 motels ___ (-10) _____ 8.8 _ 20.9 _ -3.2 _ 080 _ 100 ___ 17.8 _ Oak Park



    Con Sensus _____________8.8 _ 20.9 _ -3.0 _ 090 _ 109 ___ 14.8 _ Phoenix Park


    Dacogawa ______________8.8 _ 21.1 _ -2.1 _ 122 _ 083 ___ 14.1 _ Phoenix Park

    M.T. Cranium ___________ 8.7 _ 20.5 _ -3.7 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 14.9 _ Moorepark

    Bsal ___________________8.7 _ 19.7 _ -2.5 _ 090 _ 107 ___ 14.0 _ Mullingar

    Kindred Spirit ___________ 8.6 _ 20.8 _ -2.9 _ 085 _ 118 ___ 14.0 _ Johnstown Castle

    Artane2002 _____________8.6 _ 20.8 _ -3.2 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 16.2 _ Phoenix Park


    Normal ________________ 8.4 _ 20.5 _ -2.7 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.5 _ loc'n points by climatology


    DOCARCH ______________8.3 _ 19.1 _ -2.3 _ 085 _ 112 ___ 15.1 _ Shannon

    dasa29 ________________ 8.2 _ 19.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 16.0 _ Mullingar

    Jpmarn ________________ 8.1 _ 19.5 _ -2.8 _ 090 _ 125 ___ 13.1 _ Phoenix Park

    Joe Public ______________ 8.1 _ 19.2 _ -3.9 _ 099 _ 099 ___ 14.6 _ Oak Park

    mickger844posts ________ 8.1 _ 18.5 _ -2.7 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 13.9 _ Johnstown Castle

    _____________________________________________________________________

    The consensus is average of 11th and 12th ranked forecasts for 22 forecasters.

    For the location of warmest Easter max, we have this selection (showing what Con Sensus would score if it happens this way):

    Phoenix Park (3 pts Con S) ___ 5

    Johnstown Castle (3 pts CS) __ 4

    Oak Park (2 pts Con S) ______ 4

    Moorepark (2 pts Con S) _____ 3

    Mullingar (2 pts Con S) ______ 2

    Shannon (2 pts Con S) _______2

    Cork, Mountdillon __
    __ (1 point for Con S) _______ 1 each

    and anywhere else would give Con zero points.

    Forecasters may score higher than zero by proximity however.
    __________________________________________

    The consensus of forecasts seems to be leaning towards a pleasant outcome, milder, drier and sunnier than average if only by a small amount.

    Will add in any later entries. Good luck !


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  • Registered Users Posts: 748 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    Whoops very late

    Adam240610___ 9.4__22__-4__60__130__16.6 Moore park


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    So busy in work I completely forgot.
    User
    200motels____8.8_ 20.9_ -3.2 __ 80 __ 100 ___ 17.8 _ Oak Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,200 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    These are distracting times no doubt, will go with -8 and -10 on those which might be a touch on the lenient side.


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Mullingar 0.2 min yesterday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,200 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    I'll do a bit of hunting later, sure I saw an hourly of -1 some time in the past week, wasn't really thinking about the contest at that time so I forgot to make a definite note. We've probably had a min in the range of -1 to -2 but I wouldn't swear to that yet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Mt. Dillon -1.3 yesterday if nothing colder found.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,200 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After the first week of April ...

    IMT on 8.8, which is 0.8 above normal.

    MAX will likely come in today, has already been around 17 (Sunday) but likely a touch warmer today or 9th.

    MIN seems to be that -1.3 at Mountdillon on 7th, I couldn't find anything lower.

    PRC only 52% of normal.

    SUN at 95% of normal (569/600), both Casement and Cork were at 107% so not much variation, the west generally a bit cloudier.


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Mullingar reached 17.6 yesterday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,200 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Mountdillon had an hourly of 20 earlier today so will be waiting to see what that turns out to be.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,996 ✭✭✭ John mac


    19.8 for Mountdillon . Claremorris had 19.5


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