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April 2020 Boards weather forecast contest
M.T. Cranium
1. Predict the I.M.T. (Irish Mean Temperature, average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon) ... the 1981-2010 normal value is 8.4 C.
2. Predict the MAX temperature at any of 25 regular reporting locations on the met.ie website.
3. Predict the MIN temperature at any of 25 regular reporting locations on the met.ie website.
4. Predict the PRC (precipitation) which is the average at eleven locations expressed as a percentage of normal. The stations used are the five in (1) above plus Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.
5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) which is the average at six locations expressed as a percentage of normal. The stations used are Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Cork, Shannon and Valentia.
6. BONUS -- Easter Sunday (12th) -- predict the highest temperature at any location, and the location itself. Temperature worth 7/10 and location 3/10, superbonus points available.
Forecasts:
MTC _________ 8.7 _ 20.5 _ -3.7 __ 110 __ 095 ___ 14.9 _ Moorepark
Normal _______8.4 _ 20.5 _ -2.0 __ 100 __ 100 ___ 13.5 _ loc'n points by climatology
The on-time deadline is 0300h Wednesday, 1st of April.
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sryanbruen
sryanbruen _________ 8.9 _ 20.7 _ -3.2 __ 80 __ 100 ___ 16.8 _ Oak Park
Artane2002
Artane2002 _________ 8.6 _ 20.8 _ -3.2 __ 85 __ 110 ___ 16.2 _ Phoenix Park
Bsal
Bsal_______8.7 _ 19.7 _ -2.5 __ 90 __ 107 ___ 14.0 _ Mullingar
Tazio
Tazio_______9.1 _ 20.0 _ -2.7 __ 75 __ 110 ___ 12.0 _ Cork Airport
pauldry
Pauldry_______8.8_ 21.6 _ -2 __ 83 __ 111___ 15.0 _ Pheonix Park
Rikand
Rikand ___ 9.0 ___ 21.0 ___ -3.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 16.0 Johnstown Castle
dasa29
dasa29_______8.2 _ 19.5 _ -1.5 __ 100 __ 110 ___ 16.0 _ Mullingar
Joe Public
Joe Public _______ 8.1 _ 19.2 _ -3.9 __ 99 __ 99 ___ 14.6 _ Oak Park
sunflower3
Sinflower3 _______ 8.8 _ 22.2 _ -1.9 __ 90__ 105 ___ 16.2_ PhoenixPark
John mac
John mac _______8.9 _ 22.5 _ -2.5 __ 97 __ 110 ___ 14.5 Mount Dillon
kindredspirit
Kindred Spirit ___ 8.6 ___ 20.8 ___ -2.9 ___ 85 ___ 118 ___ 14.0 ___ Johnstown Castle.
DOCARCH
DOCARCH _________ 8.3 _ 19.1 _ -2.3 __ 85 __ 112 ___ 15.1 _ Shannon
dacogawa
Dacogawa______8.8__ 21.1 __-2.1 __ 122 __ 83__ 14.1 _ Pheonix Park
mickger844posts
mickger844posts _________ 8.1 _ 18.5 _ -2.7 __ 90 __ 110 ___ 13.9 _ Johnstown Castle
Tae laidir
Tae laidir _______8.8 _ 21.2 _ -1.4 __ 109 __ 90 ___ 12.8 _ Moore Park
mrskinner
MrSkinner____9.0___20.2___-3.3___88___98___17.2 Johnstown.
Jpmarn
Jpmarn _______8.1 _ 19.5 _ -2.8 __ 90 __ 125 ___ 13.1 _ Phoenix Park
waterways
waterways _______8.8 _ 24.5 _ -3.7 __ 98 __ 103 ___ 16.4 _Shannon Airport
BLIZZARD7
BLIZZARD7 _______8.8 _ 23.3_ -4.3 __ 110 __ 103 ___ 14.0 _Oak Park
M.T. Cranium
Table of forecasts for April 2020
FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 12th loc'n
Adam240610 __ (-8) _____ 9.4 _ 22.0 _ -4.0 _ 060 _ 130 ___ 16.6 _ Moore park
Tazio __________________ 9.1 _ 20.0 _ -2.7 _ 075 _ 110 ___ 12.0 _ Cork Airport
Rikand _________________9.0 _ 21.0 _ -3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 16.0 _ Johnstown Castle
MrSkinner ______________ 9.0 _ 20.2 _ -3.3 _ 088 _ 098 ___ 17.2 _ Johnstown Castle
John mac _______________8.9 _ 22.5 _ -2.5 _ 097 _ 110 ___ 14.5 _ Mount Dillon
sryanbruen _____________ 8.9 _ 20.7 _ -3.2 _ 080 _ 100 ___ 16.8 _ Oak Park
waterways ____ (-1) _____ 8.8 _ 24.5 _ -3.7 _ 098 _ 103 ___ 16.4 _ Shannon
BLIZZARD7 ___ (-3) ______8.8 _ 23.3 _ -4.3 _ 110 _ 103 ___ 14.0 _ Oak Park
Sunflower3 _____________ 8.8 _ 22.2 _ -1.9 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 16.2 _ Phoenix Park
Pauldry ________________ 8.8 _ 21.6 _ -2.0 _ 083 _ 111 ___ 15.0 _ Phoenix Park
Tae laidir _______________8.8 _ 21.2 _ -1.4 _ 109 _ 090 ___ 12.8 _ Moore Park
200 motels ___ (-10) _____ 8.8 _ 20.9 _ -3.2 _ 080 _ 100 ___ 17.8 _ Oak Park
Con Sensus _____________8.8 _ 20.9 _ -3.0 _ 090 _ 109 ___ 14.8 _ Phoenix Park
Dacogawa ______________8.8 _ 21.1 _ -2.1 _ 122 _ 083 ___ 14.1 _ Phoenix Park
M.T. Cranium ___________ 8.7 _ 20.5 _ -3.7 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 14.9 _ Moorepark
Bsal ___________________8.7 _ 19.7 _ -2.5 _ 090 _ 107 ___ 14.0 _ Mullingar
Kindred Spirit ___________ 8.6 _ 20.8 _ -2.9 _ 085 _ 118 ___ 14.0 _ Johnstown Castle
Artane2002 _____________8.6 _ 20.8 _ -3.2 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 16.2 _ Phoenix Park
Normal ________________ 8.4 _ 20.5 _ -2.7 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.5 _ loc'n points by climatology
DOCARCH ______________8.3 _ 19.1 _ -2.3 _ 085 _ 112 ___ 15.1 _ Shannon
dasa29 ________________ 8.2 _ 19.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 16.0 _ Mullingar
Jpmarn ________________ 8.1 _ 19.5 _ -2.8 _ 090 _ 125 ___ 13.1 _ Phoenix Park
Joe Public ______________ 8.1 _ 19.2 _ -3.9 _ 099 _ 099 ___ 14.6 _ Oak Park
mickger844posts ________ 8.1 _ 18.5 _ -2.7 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 13.9 _ Johnstown Castle
_____________________________________________________________________
The consensus is average of 11th and 12th ranked forecasts for 22 forecasters.
For the location of warmest Easter max, we have this selection (showing what Con Sensus would score if it happens this way):
Phoenix Park (3 pts Con S) ___ 5
Johnstown Castle (3 pts CS) __ 4
Oak Park (2 pts Con S) ______ 4
Moorepark (2 pts Con S) _____ 3
Mullingar (2 pts Con S) ______ 2
Shannon (2 pts Con S) _______2
Cork, Mountdillon __
__ (1 point for Con S) _______ 1 each
and anywhere else would give Con zero points.
Forecasters may score higher than zero by proximity however.
__________________________________________
The consensus of forecasts seems to be leaning towards a pleasant outcome, milder, drier and sunnier than average if only by a small amount.
Will add in any later entries. Good luck !
adam240610
Whoops very late
Adam240610___ 9.4__22__-4__60__130__16.6 Moore park
200motels
So busy in work I completely forgot.
User
200motels____8.8_ 20.9_ -3.2 __ 80 __ 100 ___ 17.8 _ Oak Park
M.T. Cranium
These are distracting times no doubt, will go with -8 and -10 on those which might be a touch on the lenient side.
Tae laidir
Mullingar 0.2 min yesterday.
M.T. Cranium
I'll do a bit of hunting later, sure I saw an hourly of -1 some time in the past week, wasn't really thinking about the contest at that time so I forgot to make a definite note. We've probably had a min in the range of -1 to -2 but I wouldn't swear to that yet.
Tae laidir
Mt. Dillon -1.3 yesterday if nothing colder found.
M.T. Cranium
After the first week of April ...
IMT on 8.8, which is 0.8 above normal.
MAX will likely come in today, has already been around 17 (Sunday) but likely a touch warmer today or 9th.
MIN seems to be that -1.3 at Mountdillon on 7th, I couldn't find anything lower.
PRC only 52% of normal.
SUN at 95% of normal (569/600), both Casement and Cork were at 107% so not much variation, the west generally a bit cloudier.
Tae laidir
Mullingar reached 17.6 yesterday.
M.T. Cranium
Mountdillon had an hourly of 20 earlier today so will be waiting to see what that turns out to be.
John mac
19.8 for Mountdillon . Claremorris had 19.5
