Rainfall/Drought Watch 2020

Gonzo

giveitholly wrote: »

It's all to play for next week so Gonzo!!

It really is, I think just about anything is on the table for next week. I do think this weekend is going to be unsettled, but we could dig ourselves out of it sooner than we think.

Keeping all fingers and toes crossed for that Azores High to have more of an influence in the last 2 weeks of June.

Neddyusa

Danno wrote: »

The latest GFS is predicting 75mm here by months end...



I somehow doubt it - and I'll be surprised if even half that is reached.

I think tomorrow's occluded front won't mount to a fierce amount here, I'm pinning my reasoning on this down to a Wicklow Mtns shadow effect.

Well this morning YR had 35mm forecast for here for Saturday

Updated this evening and now its down to 7mm!

Is this the star of the downgrades for the weekend?

pauldry

Looks like 25mm of rain for a lot of places Saturday and a lot of showers other days.

Also 15mm tonight. My rain gauge is about to be employed again. 0.5mm last night

Nearly 15mm now for June

Gonzo

at the moment i'm struggling to find time to even get the grass cut and it's getting long now. It's being wet most of the week and grass at the moment is still wet, is growing very quickly and there is alot of rain on the way. I'm back now struggling to find a window of opportunity where the grass is dry on a day with no planned rainfall.

Tomorrow looks like the dryest day of the week but the grass will most likely be saturated after alot of rain and there is still the chance of showers tomorrow then the deluge over the weekend. If I have to leave it till next Monday (hoping that there will be a window) the grass is going to be be very long indeed and the lawnmower will struggle.

nacho libre

Yes. By next Tuesday all those in desperate need of rain will have gotten a decent amount. I don't think we will be seeing the Altantic in charge for too long though.

Reckless Abandonment

Gonzo wrote: »

at the moment i'm struggling to find time to even get the grass cut and it's getting long now. It's being wet most of the week and grass at the moment is still wet, is growing very quickly and there is alot of rain on the way. I'm back now struggling to find a window of opportunity where the grass is dry on a day with no planned rainfall.

Tomorrow looks like the dryest day of the week but the grass will most likely be saturated after alot of rain and there is still the chance of showers tomorrow then the deluge over the weekend. If I have to leave it till next Monday (hoping that there will be a window) the grass is going to be be very long indeed and the lawnmower will struggle.

I cut mine regardless of it been wet or dry. Obviously dry is better. But I find if you leave it to long it dose more harm to the mower

Gonzo

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

I cut mine regardless of it been wet or dry. Obviously dry is better. But I find if you leave it to long it dose more harm to the mower

my mower often cuts out when the grass is wet, it's been wet now since Tuesday evening, no drying at all. I was going to try and cut the grass now before the heavy rain gets going in the afternoon but the grass is properly wet so I'm not going to risk it. The next 4 to 5 days don't look very promising for any dry period, would need a fully dry day and some sun to dry out the grass.

I am now depending that hopefully after Monday we get a few dry days and some sunshine if we get some sort of an extension from the Azores ridge across Leinster but I've low confidence of that happening. If the westerlies do persist all through next week there will be several bands of rain with showers in between, i'm hoping the models are wrong for next week and we get a few dry and settled days to dry out the garden!.

Gonzo

Today's rain will be very heavy in most places and will affect most of the country, the south-west will have the best chance of avoiding this rain and staying dry.



Tomorrow still looks fairly showery.



Saturday looks like a write-off



Sunday, showers in the west, looks a bit dryer in the east, but by then the land will be soaking from several days of heavy rain.



Monday, another pulse of rain crosses the country:


and possibly another on Tuesday:


and possibly another on Wednesday:


After Wednesday we do appear to go into a few dry days but that's almost a week away and remains to be seen if we manage to pull in a ridge by that stage. If all these models verify there will be nowhere in the country left still crying out of rain, we will all be well sick of the rain by this time next week.

nacho libre

Gonzo wrote: »

my mower often cuts out when the grass is wet, it's been wet now since Tuesday evening, no drying at all. I was going to try and cut the grass now before the heavy rain gets going in the afternoon but the grass is properly wet so I'm not going to risk it. The next 4 to 5 days don't look very promising for any dry period, would need a fully dry day and some sun to dry out the grass.

!.

Does this happen if you cut it at a high settings? If the grass is long and wet it'll cut out easily enough if you have the setting too low.

Gonzo

nacho libre wrote: »

Does this happen if you cut it at a high settings? If the grass is long and wet it'll cut out easily enough if you have the setting too low.

yep I only cut using the high setting and it cuts out quite a bit. I may eventually have to invest in a new mower. Once the grass is dry I can cut no problem.

Farmer2017

I hope we get 3 weeks of wet weather.. 4inches rain needed to bring us back to normal soil moisture again. We have recieved 9mls in 9 days. Sorry to anyone that takes offence to me wishing for rain but my business needs it.

endainoz

Farmer2017 wrote: »

I hope we get 3 weeks of wet weather.. 4inches rain needed to bring us back to normal soil moisture again. We have recieved 9mls in 9 days. Sorry to anyone that takes offence to me wishing for rain but my business needs it.

Time to look into sowing multi species swards that are more drought resistant. Less of the monoculture crops that are too reliant on inputs and therefore need more rain to be efficient.

Lads might have laughed at the idea of drought resistant crops in Ireland a few years ago but two major soil deficient periods in a couple of years would suggest more will come in the future.

Humberto Salazar

Gonzo wrote: »

at the moment i'm struggling to find time to even get the grass cut and it's getting long now. It's being wet most of the week and grass at the moment is still wet, is growing very quickly and there is alot of rain on the way. I'm back now struggling to find a window of opportunity where the grass is dry on a day with no planned rainfall.

Tomorrow looks like the dryest day of the week but the grass will most likely be saturated after alot of rain and there is still the chance of showers tomorrow then the deluge over the weekend. If I have to leave it till next Monday (hoping that there will be a window) the grass is going to be be very long indeed and the lawnmower will struggle.

It's gas. I can't cut mine because it's growing very slowly and patchy brown bits in it are not growing at all. I had a picture of the grass from this time last year, lush and green. Still bone dry and no rain for seven days now and precious little before that. Certainly strange some counties are fine and others nearby needing plenty. That's the nature of showery weather.

Farmer2017

endainoz wrote: »

Time to look into sowing multi species swards that are more drought resistant. Less of the monoculture crops that are too reliant on inputs and therefore need more rain to be efficient.

Lads might have laughed at the idea of drought resistant crops in Ireland a few years ago but two major soil deficient periods in a couple of years would suggest more will come in the future.

Can u tell me how many tons dm will I get from multi swards?? How much nitrogen input needed to grow them ?? Life expectancy of them ?? How resilant are they in wet weather

SouthWesterly

Farmer2017 wrote: »

I hope we get 3 weeks of wet weather.. 4inches rain needed to bring us back to normal soil moisture again. We have recieved 9mls in 9 days. Sorry to anyone that takes offence to me wishing for rain but my business needs it.

I think Reggie is in the same boat.

In North Kerry we've had 30 mm in the last week and 54 this month. Hoping Gonzo prediction of no rain on Monday falls flat. Though I have nearly 4 acres to cut and could do with some dry weather for a while.

Humberto Salazar

Farmer2017 wrote: »

I hope we get 3 weeks of wet weather.. 4inches rain needed to bring us back to normal soil moisture again. We have recieved 9mls in 9 days. Sorry to anyone that takes offence to me wishing for rain but my business needs it.

You're near me Farmer I think in Offaly and I hear you. Farmers around Clara were worrying in February about the amount of rain, it was really sodden by the month end. It's gone the other way now, but might swing back to sodden in a couple of weeks if predicted rainfall goes as forecast. June monsoon.

endainoz

Farmer2017 wrote: »

Can u tell me how many tons dm will I get from multi swards?? How much nitrogen input needed to grow them ?? Life expectancy of them ?? How resilant are they in wet weather

There you go, the overuse of nitrogen is the main part of the problem. Too much nitrogen and grass won't have deep enough roots so they can't get the minerals and mositure they need from the ground. Different species means different root lengths, so different minerals can be used for all the grasses that you simply wouldn't get with monoculture. It's the way forward, and a lot of farmers are realising it.

https://www.teagasc.ie/publications/2020/grassland-re-seeding-how-to-establish-multi-species-swards.php#:~:text=The%20advantages%20of%20multi-species,critical%20for%20greenhouse%20gases%20emissions.

sparksfly

Gonzo wrote: »

at the moment i'm struggling to find time to even get the grass cut and it's getting long now. It's being wet most of the week and grass at the moment is still wet, is growing very quickly and there is alot of rain on the way. I'm back now struggling to find a window of opportunity where the grass is dry on a day with no planned rainfall.

Tomorrow looks like the dryest day of the week but the grass will most likely be saturated after alot of rain and there is still the chance of showers tomorrow then the deluge over the weekend. If I have to leave it till next Monday (hoping that there will be a window) the grass is going to be be very long indeed and the lawnmower will struggle.

I must live in a different country. We have had zero rain since the start of the covid restrictions here on the Kildare Laois border. Grass growth is stopped apart from daisys and butter cups. Our 27 foot well, normally nearly full is down to its last 6 feet of water. We have missed every shower over the last 10 weeks, some of which passed 0.5km from us. Bone dry so far today. Expecting zero rain over the weekend, hopefully proved wrong.

pauldry

Saturdays rain will miss no county

25mm for top locations

Even today's rain may hit there too.

The 6 feet will rise by this time next week.

Oneiric 3

Far from perfect but based on latest monthly data from Met Eireann, I drew in the broadly generalised region that has seen the least rainfall this month so far.



No doubt places within this badly drawn encloser would have seem some big totals due to the showery nature of the weather recently, while others outside of it may have seen little to nothing, but it's a rough idea.

KingdomRushed

Yes I agree with Paul. The drought really is breaking, while there may be a few isolated spots still in complete drought, there has been a phenomenal change in conditions and we will soon be wishing for dry weather again. It is always the same. Today and Saturday will be as wet as any summer day you'd get in Ireland, will cut soil moisture deficits in two countrywide. Some places (quite a few) have already had 25-50mm so far in June. There's lots more to come. Today's set up looks lethal and slow moving.

ShedTower

Still in drought here in the midlands. Rain seems to have been forecast for most days in the last week but we never get it. The forecast is more or less giving 24hrs of rain from 3/4pm today but after the last week I'll believe it when I see it.

joebloggs32

ShedTower wrote: »

Still in drought here in the midlands. Rain seems to have been forecast for most days in the last week but we never get it. The forecast is more or less giving 24hrs of rain from 3/4pm today but after the last week I'll believe it when I see it.

I played a round of golf the other day.
Had a good decent shower for about 30 mins. The grass on the course is struggling so it drank it up.
I got home after, about 10 km away and Mrs Bloggs said there wasn't a drop of rain.

ShedTower

Watching the weather come across on met.ie's rainfall rader over the last hour, the rain seems to be struggling to get past the Wicklow mountains.

nacho libre

When it's coming from the Atlantic you can believe it. It will be interesting to hear of the water level in sparksfly's well by next Thursday.

RobertKK

Best day in many weeks, so far...6.2mm of rain already today in north east Kilkenny.

Humberto Salazar

Blessed rain falling at last in Offaly. That unmistakable musty smell in the air after a long dry spell.

pad199207

Petrichor if you please.

Humberto Salazar

pad199207 wrote: »

Petrichor if you please.

You can get stuff in the chemist for that :pac:

pauldry

Rain petering out as it moves West. Another 0.5mm in Sligo then got dry. Must be what weather is like in Dublin when we get Atlantic muck.