Why is our border with the most reckless jurisdiction in Europe being left open?

sink

I see a lot of criticism of our Government not closing down flights or shutting borders, and using common sense that would seem logical. However when you examine the problem using epidemiological mathematical modelling it will show that closing borders has a limited effect in the basic reproduction number of infection (aka R0), which is really the only factor we are trying to control. By lowering the R0 we give our health service the time to treat patients without being overwhelmed and therefore increase the survivability rate and have better outcomes for patients overall, this we all know by now is termed 'flattening the curve'.

So why don't borders work? To start with borders can not be perfectly sealed, unless we want to become an even more totalitarian state than North Korea some people will cross them. One example is we need to import many essential goods and raw material such as oil in order to keep society functioning and this has to be done by people. With the profile of this disease it is impossible to properly screen for it as many are infected are asymptomatic.

So cutting off contact from the outside world entirely is impossible even in the short term and we would need to keep up these measures for as long as the pandemic persists which could be years or even indefinitely if this virus becomes established. We could potentially have delayed the start of the outbreak in Ireland by introducing mandatory quarantines for passengers arriving from hotspots, but this would have given us a few extra weeks at best before we had community spread.

Once the virus is in spreading in the community it doubles infections every 3-4 days in populations where no internal controls are in place. This is what is known as exponential growth, simply put the more infected there are the faster new people get infected. Uncontrolled spread within the community with quickly outpace the number of infected coming from outside the community, even if you pack every jet and ferry with 100% infected people, left uncontrolled the community transmissions would dwarf them in a matter of weeks even if started with just one infected person.

So we need to focus on slowing the spread within the community, and the only method we have to do this is social distancing. Social distancing techniques work for those people arriving into the country as well, following proper guidelines they won't infect more people than anyone else already in the community. Jets and ferries should limit their capacities so people are kept a safe distance, exceptions can be made for family units of course.

The Washington Post have an excellent article which show these epidemiological models working in real time, I highly recommend looking at it to get a better understanding of what I'm talking about.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...ona-simulator/

beggars_bush

How would you close our border up north?

uck51js9zml2yt

beggars_bush wrote: »

How would you close our border up north?

Landmines are fairly effective

con747

If it was possible on this Island, yes.

punisher5112

Yes, they should have stopped movement.

Biggest issues are there ain't enough prison places, we really need a super prison.

Charles Babbage

tatranska wrote: »

Landmines are fairly effective

The peope there are very familiar with landmines and would likely just take them.

Ozymandius2011

I would not close the North-South border but I would ban travel from those non-EEA countries that are hotspots, notably Italy and Spain.

I also would ask the EU to invoke Article 45 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union to allow member states control EU immigration on health grounds.

Peregrinus

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

I would not close the North-South border but I would ban travel from those non-EEA countries that are hotspots, notably Italy and Spain.

Nitpick: Italy and Spain are both EEA countries.

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

I also would ask the EU to invoke Article 45 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union to allow member states control EU immigration on health grounds.

No need to ask the EU to invoke anything. Member states already have the right to operate border controls for reasons of public health. Several are already doing so.

You'll have noted a proposal from the Commission for co-ordinated action between member states to apply travel restrictions to the EU's external borders. This, if implemented, might reduce the need for controls on internal borders but wouldn't prevent member states from implementing them if they judged it necessary.

httpete

Exactly which group of people do Varadkar and co think they represent?

As the other EU countries lock down their border with their neighbouring countries, Varadkar says we won't do likewise with Northern Ireland with a spokesman saying:

Under no circumstances will a closure of the land border North/South be considered.
https://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2020/03/17/ireland-will-not-close-border-with-north-as-it-mulls-eu-restrictions---government

This is despite the fact that, unlike all the rest of the EU countries that are all following a common and strict containment policy, Northern Ireland has chosen to go with the incredibly reckless UK policy in which no schools/pubs/gyms/etc.. have been forced to close to date. Their numbers could go through the roof soon..although as they aren't bothering to do proper testing who can really judge how bad the problem is anyway.

The Rep. of Ireland itself and the lives of our families and friends are at stake here, it is the job of our leaders to protect us as much as possible.

Closing the border will make little difference in the big scheme of things in the North as their outcome will be down to following the UK policy. But by leaving it open, our containment is completely jeopardized as people can pass through at any time and infect people in the South. A single infected person could pass through and totally undo the good work being done down here.

Even if the North went with their own non-UK policy, locking down the border would be a good idea as it is a different jurisdiction and every jurisdiction has to now focus on their own problems. This is the reason all the European countries are closing their borders with their neighbours, with whom they all have very good relationships with: it is is not in the common interest to have free movement of people across borders at the moment as it jeopardizes the combined containment and efforts.

That the North is opting to follow the UK policy and we are still not closing the border absolutely beggars belief. How can it be justified at this critical time?

The Rep. of Ireland's government's duty is to ensure the best outcome for the people in this jurisdiction, namely our friends and family.

The sooner the border is closed the better as the number of cases in the North could really take off/is already taking off as they aren't bothering to close schools and pubs.

Now is the time to offer the North the ultimatum of (i) forming a joint and cohesive policy with the Rep. of Ireland and keeping the border open, or else (ii) staying with the incredibly reckless UK policy in which case we close the border. Do it TODAY, not in a week's time.

The citizens of the Rep. of Ireland must be protected at all costs.

dubrov

Do we not have proportionately higher numbers of infected than the UK?

MarkR

httpete wrote: »

Exactly which group of people do Varadkar and co think they represent?

As the other EU countries lock down their border with their neighbouring countries, Varadkar says we won't do likewise with Northern Ireland with a spokesman saying:


This is despite the fact that, unlike all the rest of the EU countries that are all following a common and strict containment policy, Northern Ireland has chosen to go with the incredibly reckless UK policy in which no schools/pubs/gyms/etc.. have been forced to close to date. Their numbers could go through the roof soon..although as they aren't bothering to do proper testing who can really judge how bad the problem is anyway.

The Rep. of Ireland itself and the lives of our families and friends are at stake here, it is the job of our leaders to protect us as much as possible.

Closing the border will make little difference in the big scheme of things in the North as their outcome will be down to following the UK policy. But by leaving it open, our containment is completely jeopardized as people can pass through at any time and infect people in the South. A single infected person could pass through and totally undo the good work being done down here.

Even if the North went with their own non-UK policy, locking down the border would be a good idea as it is a different jurisdiction and every jurisdiction has to now focus on their own problems. This is the reason all the European countries are closing their borders with their neighbours, with whom they all have very good relationships with: it is is not in the common interest to have free movement of people across borders at the moment as it jeopardizes the combined containment and efforts.

That the North is opting to follow the UK policy and we are still not closing the border absolutely beggars belief. How can it be justified at this critical time?

The Rep. of Ireland's government's duty is to ensure the best outcome for the people in this jurisdiction, namely our friends and family.

The sooner the border is closed the better as the number of cases in the North could really take off/is already taking off as they aren't bothering to close schools and pubs.

Now is the time to offer the North the ultimatum of (i) forming a joint and cohesive policy with the Rep. of Ireland and keeping the border open, or else (ii) staying with the incredibly reckless UK policy in which case we close the border. Do it TODAY, not in a week's time.

The citizens of the Rep. of Ireland must be protected at all costs.

Devil's advocate, it's because there are Irish people in the north who would be cut off.

Peregrinus

Our border with NI is being left open because, as we all know very well, it is impossible to close effectively. It might give the OP a good feeling to proclaim absolutist strategies that signal our displeasure with the UK, but if they can't actually be implemented they are not good strategies.

MarkR

MarkR wrote: »

Devil's advocate, it's because there are Irish people in the north who would be cut off.

Citizens of the Republic of Ireland?
There are citizens all over the world, they can come back.
OP, I agree, close the border. It's bad enough that Boris Johnson doesn't care about my elderly relatives in England, it's too much that he impacts on my mother here in the Republic. She lives a few miles from the border.

Gooey Looey

Stop with this sh1t, we have Irish citizens up the North

Lumen

dubrov wrote: »

Do we not have proportionately higher numbers of infected than the UK?

Confirmed cases, yes, but it's difficult to compare due to different testing regimes.

Both countries have 1.2m population per death.

That reflects actual cases a few weeks ago.

The growth rate of confirmed cases is higher here, but there is a lag also in that.

I think it's a mistake to conflate government policy with behaviour of the people. People may behave either more or less cautiously than their government asks for.

edit: sorry, I have the stats wrong. The UK has 1.2m per death. We have 2.4m.

Hoboo

bubblypop wrote: »

Citizens of the Republic of Ireland?
There are citizens all over the world, they can come back.
OP, I agree, close the border. It's bad enough that Boris Johnson doesn't care about my elderly relatives in England, it's too much that he impacts on my mother here in the Republic. She lives a few miles from the border.

Close the border?

How?

I'm intrigued.

Hoboo

Hoboo wrote: »

Close the border?

How?

I'm intrigued.

It's been done before. Man it with Gardai & Army. It may not be perfect but might stop unnecessary travel over & back.

Lots of Europe are doing it now. It's a temporary measure.

soups05

couple of shovels, dig a big ass trench and turn the 6 into their own little island :-)

The only difference is that the schools are closed here, is it not?

beggars_bush

Build that wall!

alchemist33

There may be some difference in policy but many businesses, the general public and the health services are treating it the same as here (source: I'm a cross border health worker). Closing the border would take huge resources which will be needed here, for little benefit.

Gooey Looey

bubblypop wrote: »

It's been done before. Man it with Gardai & Army. It may not be perfect but might stop unnecessary travel over & back.

Lots of Europe are doing it now. It's a temporary measure.

We have better things for the Gardai and Forces to be tasked at in this crisis

Aegir

Aegir wrote: »

The only difference is that the schools are closed here, is it not?

And pubs, & nightclubs, & no gatherings of over 100 people.
All of these are happening in the north

splinter65

bubblypop wrote: »

And pubs, & nightclubs, & no gatherings of over 100 people.
All of these are happening in the north

So what?

Gooey Looey

Gooey Looey wrote: »

We have better things for the Gardai and Forces to be tasked at in this crisis

What better then protecting the citizens of the country?
Protection of life & property.

hurler32

If we were any good we would have reclaimed the north at this stage and be implementing an all Ireland approach to everything including Covid 19.
Pearse and Connolly etc must be turning in their graves over a hundred years since 1916 we still don’t have a United Ireland !

Gooey Looey

bubblypop wrote: »

What better then protecting the citizens of the country?
Protection of life & property.

The virus is here and spreading quickly. Closing the border will not stop it spreading. We cannot stop this pandemic, only slow it. Most of us will get this virus at some stage, it's inevitable

Gooey Looey

Gooey Looey wrote: »

The virus is here and spreading quickly. Closing the border will not stop it spreading. We cannot stop this pandemic, only slow it. Most of us will get this virus at some stage, it's inevitable

OK Boris

splinter65

splinter65 wrote: »

So what?

We are trying to slow the spread, the UK approach seems to be to infect as many as possible.
You don't see any issue with that? Possibly undermining our actions here?

bubblypop

bubblypop wrote: »

It's been done before. Man it with Gardai & Army. It may not be perfect but might stop unnecessary travel over & back.

Lots of Europe are doing it now. It's a temporary measure.

unlikely to be effective. Even back in the day, when a border was maintained it was relatively ineffective at stopping people from passing through... and that was with the Brits helping on their side.

Anyway, I'd consider it foolish simply due to expense. Activating the Army in numbers enough to do anything more than a gesture would be extremely expensive... money that could be better spent on the Health service, or anything else that might crop up.

Lastly, What do you do with people who refuse to stop? Shoot them? Arresting them would bring the soldiers into greater contact with the virus... and I doubt there's enough protective gear going around.

Lets hear some details and practicalities on this idea...

bubblypop

bubblypop wrote: »

And pubs, & nightclubs, & no gatherings of over 100 people.
All of these are happening in the north

they shouldn't be. the government has asked that all of these things are stopped. the same as here.

listermint

dubrov wrote: »

Do we not have proportionately higher numbers of infected than the UK?

We do not.

There's no serious numbers coming out of the UK as the response has been well. Crap.

They aren't even buying testing kits from UK supplier's. Apathetic is how you should describe it.

So how do we even know the true numbers...

splinter65

bubblypop wrote: »

We are trying to slow the spread, the UK approach seems to be to infect as many as possible.
You don't see any issue with that? Possibly undermining our actions here?

The virus is here. It’s escalating rapidly particularly in the east. Two people have died from it.
How many people have died in the north?
But you seem to see the north as a big threat. To the extent where you want to mobilize the army and use 100s of our Gardaí to keep people from the north out. Why is that?

8-10

alchemist33 wrote: »

Closing the border would take huge resources which will be needed here, for little benefit.

This

splinter65

splinter65 wrote: »

The virus is here. It’s escalating rapidly particularly in the east. Two people have died from it.
How many people have died in the north?
But you seem to see the north as a big threat. To the extent where you want to mobilize the army and use 100s of our Gardaí to keep people from the north out. Why is that?

I have told you why.

listermint

listermint wrote: »

We do not.

There's no serious numbers coming out of the UK as the response has been well. Crap.

They aren't even buying testing kits from UK supplier's. Apathetic is how you should describe it.

So how do we even know the true numbers...

how many tests have been carried out in Ireland?

Peregrinus

Aegir wrote: »

how many tests have been carried out in Ireland?

According to this site, the UK has conducted 450.8 tests per million people, while Ireland has conducted 370.6 tests per million people. A separate NI figure is not broken out from the UK figure.

Note that the data from Ireland is a week old, and that from the UK five days old. In such a fast-moving situation the figures could well have changed by now.

Still, there is nothing in these figures to support the view that Ireland has been conducting a more intensive testing programme than the UK.

Kermit.de.frog

Peregrinus wrote: »

According to this site, the UK has conducted 450.8 tests per million people, while Ireland has conducted 370.6 tests per million people. A separate NI figure is not broken out from the UK figure.

Note that the data from Ireland is a week old, and that from the UK five days old. In such a fast-moving situation the figures could well have changed by now.

Still, there is nothing in these figures to support the view that Ireland has been conducting a more intensive testing programme than the UK.

UK only reduced their testing in last couple of days.

That's the core of the problem. Not what they were doing previously.

However, they have said it is being ramped up again.

Italy and Iran tried to massage figures too. Didn't work out for them because, frankly, you can't hide the increase in deaths.

Kermit.de.frog

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

UK only reduced their testing in last couple of days.

That's the core of the problem. Not what they were doing previously.

However, they have said it is being ramped up again.

Italy and Iran tried to massage figures too. Didn't work out for them because, frankly, you can't hide the increase in deaths.

It isn’t a case of reducing testing or massaging numbers in either country. It is about capacity and need

Peregrinus

Aegir wrote: »

they shouldn't be. the government has asked that all of these things are stopped. the same as here.

I don't think this is correct. UK/NI authorities have not closed pubs and clubs as in IRL, and have not barred public meetings. Official advice is that most people can continue to go to public places (including churches, festivals, concerts and places with crowds) unless they have a high temperature or a new persistent cough, and that they can still visit relatives in care homes.

a_squirrelman

Gooey Looey wrote: »

Stop with this sh1t, we have Irish citizens up the North

There are Hungarians living in Slovakia, Slovaks in Czechia/Hungary/Austria and Czechs in Austria/Germany/Slovakia, sooooo......

skooterblue2

a_squirrelman wrote: »

There are Hungarians living in Slovakia, Slovaks in Czechia/Hungary/Austria and Czechs in Austria/Germany/Slovakia, sooooo......

At this stage you are in, you are in, you are out, you are out. If you are caught outside, wait it out. This pandemic started months ago, if you were stupid enough to travel now you are stupid enough to wait it out.

kathryn1985

What was the point of closing all the pubs etc. which has costed thousands of jobs if they can’t control the borders, even as a temporary measure. All the good work will be undone quiet quickly. They were able to control the borders for foot and mouth. Aer lingus is only running at 25% capacity, does that mean they will still be providing flights to the UK? They have only stoped flying to US, Spain, Italy etc. because those countries put temporary border measures in place.

bob mcbob

bubblypop wrote: »

We are trying to slow the spread, the UK approach seems to be to infect as many as possible.
You don't see any issue with that? Possibly undermining our actions here?

Half of all cases in the UK are in London - there are still lots and lots of Aer Lingus flights between Dublin and Heathrow.

irish_goat

bubblypop wrote: »

And pubs, & nightclubs, & no gatherings of over 100 people.
All of these are happening in the north

Pubs and restaurants all mainly closed in Derry.

Kevwoody

OP there are roughly 300 crossings along 499km of border!

How the hell do you think the Army and Gardai can shut that down? Have you ever been up north? Or do you just imagine it's a few roadblocks here and there that would be required?

when it was a disease that affected animals, we closed the border & restricted movement of animals & people, within days of the outbreak.
Amazing to think that a disease that affects humans is not as important

Peregrinus

Peregrinus wrote: »

I don't think this is correct. UK/NI authorities have not closed pubs and clubs as in IRL, and have not barred public meetings. Official advice is that most people can continue to go to public places (including churches, festivals, concerts and places with crowds) unless they have a high temperature or a new persistent cough, and that they can still visit relatives in care homes.

You may have missed the briefing from the UK government yesterday https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51917562

the Irish government has only given the same instructions. If you own a pub and want to open, my understanding is that you not breaking any laws.

Similarly with outside events. It was the IRFU, GAA and FAI that stopped events, they were not banned by the government.

Boris Johnson wrote:

Speaking during his first daily news briefing on Monday, Mr Johnson said the government advice was that "public venues such as theatres should no longer be visited".

He added: "The proprietors of those venues are taking the logical steps that you would imagine, you are seeing the change happen already.

"As for enforcement, we have the powers if necessary but I don't believe it will be necessary to use those powers."

Mr Johnson said that from Tuesday mass gatherings were something "we are now moving emphatically away from".

He also said people should now avoid "non-essential" travel and contact with others.

Simon Harris wrote:

The Government has asked all pubs around Ireland to shut their doors from Sunday night in light of the coronavirus.

It follows discussions with the Licenced Vintners Association (LVA) and the Vintners Federation of Ireland (VFI).

The Government is calling on all public houses and bars, including hotel bars, to close until at least March 29th.

The LVA and VFI outlined "the real difficulty" in implementing the guidelines on social distancing in a public house setting, as "pubs are specifically designed to promote social interaction".

The Government said: "For the same reason, the Government is also calling on all members of the public not to organise or participate in any parties in private houses or other venues which would put other peoples’ health at risk."

Having consulted with the chief medical officer, the Government believes that this is an essential public health measure - given the reports of reckless behaviour by some members of the public in certain pubs on Saturday night.

While the Government acknowledged that the majority of the public and pub owners are behaving responsibly, it believes it is important that all pubs are closed in advance of St Patrick's Day.

The LVA and the VFI both supported this decision, and urged all their members to close in line with the Government’s request.

bubblypop

bubblypop wrote: »

when it was a disease that affected animals, we closed the border & restricted movement of animals & people, within days of the outbreak.
Amazing to think that a disease that affects humans is not as important

Yes, it's important but the practicalities matter. With animals, the transport of such was restricted to roads or ports. Easily monitored. However, humans can move across other zones.

I asked you earlier how you would close the border? And not as an empty gesture.. (considering the expense involved and the risk to army personnel).

So, rather than repeating a vague but unfeasible idea... lets see some practical and realistic ideas of how it would be done... especially since the Brits wouldn't be doing anything from their side. I'd also like to know what would be done to anyone breaking the border restrictions, and how to stop them.. shoot them? capture, and isolate them? Where? Some specifics.

Charles Babbage

bubblypop wrote: »

when it was a disease that affected animals, we closed the border & restricted movement of animals & people, within days of the outbreak.
Amazing to think that a disease that affects humans is not as important

The border was not "closed", you just had to stop for 30 seconds for someone to spray your tyres or drive through a dip.

If you want to temperature screen people or something else taking 30 seconds than that is doable. Closing the border is nonsense and if all of those Gardai were deployed organising crowds throughout the country they would be better used.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Yes, it's important but the practicalities matter. With animals, the transport of such was restricted to roads or ports. Easily monitored. However, humans can move across other zones.

I asked you earlier how you would close the border? And not as an empty gesture.. (considering the expense involved and the risk to army personnel).

So, rather than repeating a vague but unfeasible idea... lets see some practical and realistic ideas of how it would be done... especially since the Brits wouldn't be doing anything from their side. I'd also like to know what would be done to anyone breaking the border restrictions, and how to stop them.. shoot them? capture, and isolate them? Where? Some specifics.

Exactly the same way it was done during the foot & mouth incident. Animals & people were restricted, everyone was stooped.
There were no issues, everyone knew how important it was & I can only assume that this is far more important to people.
There is no need to completely stop all traffic crossing, just restrict the travel.
It's all about slowing down the rate of infection.
Can't see anyone fighting that?