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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2020
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So will we see thunderstorm development today. Some of the parameters there , models look quite good but what is very evident that is missing for Ireland is Deep Layer Shear. Still, with enough surface heating if we get a few breaks in the cloud and with all that humidity and moisture in the atmosphere we might see more activity today especially in the SW as convection matures crossing the country. Will see if some nice convergence zones develop like on the Kerry coast as the sea breeze kicks in later in the afternoon. Timing looks good for thunderstorms in Kerry later this afternoon/ night with more DLS available.
No warnings out but if thunderstorms break out they could be put up very quickly, could get locally intense rainfall and spot flooding if the storms develop enough. Just think we might edge it here in Kerry for development this evening, will see.
Like a steam bath here near Tralee at 21.3C , RH 89%, DP 9.4C EDIT: 22.2C now, could get up to 24C or so here today.
Sun just starting to break through and Temperature going up.
Skew -T charts for Killkenny and later North Kerry below.
Killkenny
North Kerry
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So will we see thunderstorm development today. Some of the parameters there , models look quite good but what is very evident that is missing for Ireland is Deep Layer Shear. Still, with enough surface heating if we get a few breaks in the cloud and with all that humidity and moisture in the atmosphere we might see more activity today especially in the SW as convection matures crossing the country. Will see if some nice convergence zones develop like on the Kerry coast as the sea breeze kicks in later in the afternoon. Timing looks good for thunderstorms in Kerry later this afternoon/ night with more DLS available. No great cold cloud tops yet but looks like convection building.
No warnings out but if thunderstorms break out they could be put up very quickly, could get locally intense rainfall and spot flooding if the storms develop enough. Just think we might edge it here in Kerry for development this evening, will see.
Like a steam bath here near Tralee at 21.3C , RH 89%, DP 9.4C EDIT: 22.2C now, could get up to 24C or so here today.
Sun just starting to break through and Temperature going up.
Skew -T charts for Kilkenny and later North Kerry below.
Kilkenny
North Kerry 0 -
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23.6C here near Tralee, DP 21C
Area of convection along the Kerry Coast near Kerry head, no sparks, might be an area to get some activity later although not much of a sea breeze, well cant feel it here anyway, still have a light breeze from the SE.
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how can you spot a convection cell from a weather chart? what am i looking for?
The photograph above is the convective cloud that I took a short time ago looking out to sea ( approx NW from here ) appears on the rain radar map above just off Kerry Head , the map below is the wind directions. otherwise can look at the Sat Pics or cloud top temperatures to see what is brewing . Temp of cloud tops not showing particularly cool.
Latest radar returns show it to be running out of gas.........
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Big flooding again last night in W Cork and S kerry. Very heavy torrential rain went through here about 05.30 dropping 8mm in a short time and heard thunder.
Steamy here this morning 18.9C with 89% RH and DP 17.1C. Looks like more potential for heavy rain and possible thunderstorms today.
https://twitter.com/countykerry/status/1294539309136130050?s=20
https://twitter.com/countykerry/status/1294522554028302337?s=20
https://twitter.com/CorkSafetyAlert/status/1294566634347274241?s=200 -
Will see what transpires today.
http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-08-15
Day 1 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 15 Aug 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sun 16 Aug 2020
ISSUED 07:31 UTC Sat 15 Aug 2020
ISSUED BY: Dan
Upper low over Biscay will slowly approach from the southwest, serving to cool the upper levels on Saturday. Residual high Theta-W plume straddles much of central/southern Britain across to Ireland, and provides the focus for sporadic elevated convection as minor impulses drift westwards in the easterly flow aloft. PVA tends to increase during Saturday night, and so this may be when elevated showers/weak thunderstorms become more widespread, albeit the focus shifted somewhat further north compared with earlier in the day. Instability overall is weaker than previous days, and so lightning will probably be rather isolated.
At the surface, extensive low cloud and mist is expected once again, although forecast profiles reveal the low-level warm nose that was present on Friday will gradually erode, in theory allowing greater mixing to occur and prospects for some breaks in the cloud to allow surface heating. This will be crucial for developing deep convection, primarily focussed along low-level convergence zones - one likely close to the M4 corridor through London and then northeast into East Anglia, and another along the south coast. Temperatures into the low 20s will be required to trigger deep convection (in conjunction with convergence zones / topography), leading to very tall but very skinny CAPE profiles. 300-600 J/kg CAPE may build, primarily over East Anglia / SE Eng / Cen S Eng where cloud breaks are most likely (especially around London) and this could aid a few heavy showers or weak thunderstorms during the afternoon or early evening. Slow storm motion (5-10mph) and PWAT 35-40mm suggests the risk of local flash flooding where showers/storms do occur. A funnel cloud or weak tornado may be possible given low cloud bases and low-level vorticity that may be ingested into an updraft - especially SE England.
A low-end SLGT has been introduced where sufficient cloud breaks / surface heating is most likely, with concerns about cloud cover elsewhere. A SLGT has also been included for the Channel Islands where some sporadic lightning may be possible towards the end of Saturday night as thunderstorms approach from France, but uncertainty as to how active they will be by arrival.0 -
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