General British politics discussion thread

Joe_ Public

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Exactly. Starmer is terrified lest he upset any particular wing of the party.

The impression i've got is that his strategy, such as it is so far, is very much directed towards the red wall type voter so i would be inclined to read his brexit comment in that vein.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

When you are asked about Brexit in a TV interview, that is the perfect opportunity to launch an attack on Johnson and his populists. To point out the myriad problems business is encountering. But no. Starmer just tells everyone to move on. And he ignores various opportunities to point to their terrible and tragic Covid mortality rate - a rate actually worse than Italy or Spain. A rate for which Johnson was completely responsible. But no. A few milk and water objections and then nothing. As leader of the opposition, he is about as useful as a lighthouse in a bog.

I don't want to go to far down the Brexit road here as we have, what, fourteen threads and goodness knows how many spinoffs from said threads on this forum as it is so I'll limit myself to this.

Only a tiny minority of people care how good the deal is. That there are easy holes to pick misses the point. People wanted it done and that's what they got. Starmer knows this.

Johnson can't really have the death rate pinned on him because he's now able to deflect to the successful vaccine programme which he wrongly credits to being outside the EU and this is another thing that'll be ruthlessly and relentlessly deployed on anyone who questions Brexit.

Starmer is in a bad situation. As I said above, when Merkel pulled the same on her centre-left rivals, it was a terminal wound. Factor in the unrepresentative voting system here along with the proposed boundary changes and I genuinely think we're heading for a one party state. The only way I could be more certain is if the Scots are successful in extricating themselves from this shambles of a union.

If I were in Starmer's shoes, I don't know what I would do. The problem is that Johnson appears to be getting things done. The vaccine rollout is going quite well and he's commandeered it into his culture war narrative. If he makes any real movement on the levelling up agenda, such as it is then I begin to wonder what the point of the Labour party is.

Rjd2

Its a really tough task which Keir has, their is arguably two sections of the Labour left, the socially conservative element and those online who make the most noise and who would probably prefer they were closer to the greens then they are currently.

As time passes, its clear they don't really like each other whatsoever.

Keir however has done ok, the party was in terrible shape when he took over and if you look at the polls he has closed the margin for sure.

He's not had a good pandemic but overall I give him 7/10.

Professor Moriarty

Joe_ Public wrote: »

The impression i've got is that his strategy, such as it is so far, is very much directed towards the red wall type voter so i would be inclined to read his brexit comment in that vein.

Meanwhile he alienates many Labour voters and members who want someone to lead on Europe. There are still an awful lot of people for whom the EU is still a major issue. Anyway, that strategy isn't working. He's simply afraid to lead. He's afraid of the Labour Brexiteers and the hard Left element. So he dithers. Contrast this with how Cummings and Johnson cleansed the Tory party of pro-EU and One Nation MPs. So you now have a Tory party that is unified behind Brexit and led by a charismatic charlatan, and an opposition that is a collection of disparate and ideologically diverse cohorts led by someone who is weak and monochrome.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't want to go to far down the Brexit road here as we have, what, fourteen threads and goodness knows how many spinoffs from said threads on this forum as it is so I'll limit myself to this.

Only a tiny minority of people care how good the deal is. That there are easy holes to pick misses the point. People wanted it done and that's what they got. Starmer knows this.

Johnson can't really have the death rate pinned on him because he's now able to deflect to the successful vaccine programme which he wrongly credits to being outside the EU and this is another thing that'll be ruthlessly and relentlessly deployed on anyone who questions Brexit.

Starmer is in a bad situation. As I said above, when Merkel pulled the same on her centre-left rivals, it was a terminal wound. Factor in the unrepresentative voting system here along with the proposed boundary changes and I genuinely think we're heading for a one party state. The only way I could be more certain is if the Scots are successful in extricating themselves from this shambles of a union.

If I were in Starmer's shoes, I don't know what I would do. The problem is that Johnson appears to be getting things done. The vaccine rollout is going quite well and he's commandeered it into his culture war narrative. If he makes any real movement on the levelling up agenda, such as it is then I begin to wonder what the point of the Labour party is.

The problem is that we don't know what would happen if Starmer spoke up. Because he doesn't. The polls show that what he's doing, staying as quiet as a mouse, isn't working. It's as if he's waiting for the Tories to trip up but they are consolidating their grip - and that's how it will become even more of a Tory/populist state.

He and Labour are disappearing beneath the waves. At the very least he should go down fighting. I would be on every talk show and issuing press releases on a daily basis pointing out, in blunt terms, the various flaws in this Tory government and it's handling of Covid and of Brexit. At least try to interrupt the narrative. So what if that upsets some people. It might inspire others.

Joe_ Public

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Meanwhile he alienates many Labour voters and members who want someone to lead on Europe. There are still an awful lot of people for whom the EU is still a major issue. Anyway, that strategy isn't working. He's simply afraid to lead. He's afraid of the Labour Brexiteers and the hard Left element. So he dithers. Contrast this with how Cummings and Johnson cleansed the Tory party of pro-EU and One Nation MPs. So you now have a Tory party that is unified behind Brexit and led by a charismatic charlatan, and an opposition that is a collection of disparate and ideologically diverse cohorts led by someone who is weak and monochrome.

I'd agree on much of that. Apart from being afraid of the left as they have been fairly active purging leftists for the past year. If you break it down, though, labour members who are pro EU are likely to be of the more progressive younger cohort and i can't see he's been hugely concerned about speaking to them as things like calling the blm a "moment", not sticking up for statue protesters, being initially ambivalent over the police bill etc, all play to the feeling he wants to project the law and order, tough on crime party for the red wall vote. Only last week he visited a church that has clear, well documented homophobic views. Almost certainly an error of overnight but just terrible optics regardless.

Professor Moriarty

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I'd agree on much of that. Apart from being afraid of the left as they have been fairly active purging leftists for the past year. If you break it down, though, labour members who are pro EU are likely to be of the more progressive younger cohort and i can't see he's been hugely concerned about speaking to them as things like calling the blm a "moment", not sticking up for statue protesters, being initially ambivalent over the police bill etc, all play to the feeling he wants to project the law and order, tough on crime party for the red wall vote. Only last week he visited a church that has clear, well documented homophobic views. Almost certainly an error of overnight but just terrible optics regardless.

Poor judgement and backing the wrong horse. Starmer in a nutshell.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The problem is that we don't know what would happen if Starmer spoke up. Because he doesn't. The polls show that what he's doing, staying as quiet as a mouse, isn't working. It's as if he's waiting for the Tories to trip up but they are consolidating their grip - and that's how it will become even more of a Tory/populist state.

He and Labour are disappearing beneath the waves. At the very least he should go down fighting. I would be on every talk show and issuing press releases on a daily basis pointing out, in blunt terms, the various flaws in this Tory government and it's handling of Covid and of Brexit. At least try to interrupt the narrative. So what if that upsets some people. It might inspire others.

I disagree. There's no point in engaging the enemy at their advantage.

The vaccine will fade away into normality and no doubt the government will fumble again as they usually do only they'll do so without something to distract the public as effectively as the vaccine.

Joe_ Public

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Poor judgement and backing the wrong horse. Starmer in a nutshell.

I'm not sure i fully understand it or have even grasped it properly. But seems some sort of calculation that they need to do everything possible to get those lost voters back and assuming that the alienated leftists/progressives will stick with them when the time comes. And maybe losing a few 1000 votes in the metropolitan constituencies won't hurt in places where they have big majorities anyway. I dunno, but something along those lines anyway.

ancapailldorcha

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I'm not sure i fully understand it or have even grasped it properly. But seems some sort of calculation that they need to do everything possible to get those lost voters back and assuming that the alienated leftists/progressives will stick with them when the time comes. And maybe losing a few 1000 votes in the metropolitan constituencies won't hurt in places where they have big majorities anyway. I dunno, but something along those lines anyway.

The problem is that the leftier types tend to congregate in cities while Labour's "traditional" voter base consists of ideological conservatives who despise the Tory party for the economic damage wrought by Thatcher. In a country with a better voting system, we'd see two natural coalition partners as opposed to the current bloated party which must remain bloated because the Tory party exhibits greater cohesion.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I disagree. There's no point in engaging the enemy at their advantage.

The vaccine will fade away into normality and no doubt the government will fumble again as they usually do only they'll do so without something to distract the public as effectively as the vaccine.

The Covid mortality rate and the effect of Brexit on the economy are not Tory advantages. The narrative is a Tory narrative and it's becoming the only narrative. And Starmer sits on his hands. This isn't a good tactic while the Tory press cements the Tory message and the Tories introduce legislation that will ensure their re-election. Any future fumbles will be blamed on others - usually the EU. The faithful have been conditioned to accept any old sh1te they are peddled at this stage. It needs someone to now shout loud and often before there is no hope.

Professor Moriarty

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I'm not sure i fully understand it or have even grasped it properly. But seems some sort of calculation that they need to do everything possible to get those lost voters back and assuming that the alienated leftists/progressives will stick with them when the time comes. And maybe losing a few 1000 votes in the metropolitan constituencies won't hurt in places where they have big majorities anyway. I dunno, but something along those lines anyway.

It's not working. They need another plan.

Leroy42

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I disagree. There's no point in engaging the enemy at their advantage.

The vaccine will fade away into normality and no doubt the government will fumble again as they usually do only they'll do so without something to distract the public as effectively as the vaccine.

The vaccine positive is pretty recent. Starmer was doing nothing well before that.

They have fumbled plenty of times, but what, next time he will nail them?

fiveleavesleft

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's not working. They need another plan.

The new plan seems to be Mandelson!

Joe_ Public

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The problem is that the leftier types tend to congregate in cities while Labour's "traditional" voter base consists of ideological conservatives who despise the Tory party for the economic damage wrought by Thatcher. In a country with a better voting system, we'd see two natural coalition partners as opposed to the current bloated party which must remain bloated because the Tory party exhibits greater cohesion.

Well, yes, the traditional labour voter base that despises the tories and yet much of which voted to hand them an 80 seat majority in 2019. And as of yet, the polling offers no clear cut signs they're ready to come back in big numbers. If thats what the current strategy overwhelmingly depends on, i'm inclined to the view they need a major rethink pretty soon.

Professor Moriarty

fiveleavesleft wrote: »

The new plan seems to be Mandelson!

They need Machiavelli Cummings.

Joe_ Public

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's not working. They need another plan.

I completely agree. Hence my earlier suggestion they could be taking lessons from Biden victory. Don't see it happening though for several reasons.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The Covid mortality rate and the effect of Brexit on the economy are not Tory advantages. The narrative is a Tory narrative and it's becoming the only narrative. And Starmer sits on his hands. This isn't a good tactic while the Tory press cements the Tory message and the Tories introduce legislation that will ensure their re-election. Any future fumbles will be blamed on others - usually the EU. The faithful have been conditioned to accept any old sh1te they are peddled at this stage. It needs someone to now shout loud and often before there is no hope.

He seems to have been forgiven on the mortality rate front due to the global nature of the pandemic. I'm not defending his conduct prior to the vaccine being deployed nor am I going to address the Brexit argument here as I've already done so.

Leroy42 wrote: »

The vaccine positive is pretty recent. Starmer was doing nothing well before that.

They have fumbled plenty of times, but what, next time he will nail them?

As disappointed as I am in him, I think we have to be reasonable. Parliament has had to switch to Zoom which has cut a lot of the exposure he might have gotten.

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Well, yes, the traditional labour voter base that despises the tories and yet much of which voted to hand them an 80 seat majority in 2019. And as of yet, the polling offers no clear cut signs they're ready to come back in big numbers. If thats what the current strategy overwhelmingly depends on, i'm inclined to the view they need a major rethink pretty soon.

They switched because Johnson offered social democratic policies and to finish Brexit. He did the latter at least.

Labour are on borrowed time. They need to come up with a raft of new ideas and soon.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

He seems to have been forgiven on the mortality rate front due to the global nature of the pandemic. I'm not defending his conduct prior to the vaccine being deployed nor am I going to address the Brexit argument here as I've already done so.

Okay, we'll agree to disagree.

Strazdas

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Well, yes, the traditional labour voter base that despises the tories and yet much of which voted to hand them an 80 seat majority in 2019. And as of yet, the polling offers no clear cut signs they're ready to come back in big numbers. If thats what the current strategy overwhelmingly depends on, i'm inclined to the view they need a major rethink pretty soon.

A big problem is the FPTP system. The Tories only need around, say, 42-43% of the vote to get into power. If they had a multiparty system, they would be on a much smaller percentage number.

Most of the Red Wall are xenophobes and anti-immigration and anti-Europe like the well off traditional Tories in the south. It's an unholy alliance (and you can add in to the mix former UKIP and BNP voters) but one that could keep the Tories in power for years.

Joe_ Public

Strazdas wrote: »

A big problem is the FPTP system. The Tories only need around, say, 42-43% of the vote to get into power. If they had a multiparty system, they would be on a much smaller percentage number.

Most of the Red Wall are xenophobes and anti-immigration and anti-Europe like the well off traditional Tories in the south. It's an unholy alliance (and you can add in to the mix former UKIP and BNP voters) but one that could keep the Tories in power for years.

Yes FPTP is a huge problem. Only chance with it is forming some grand electoral pact with Scots nats, lib dems and maybe plaid and greens too. But could that actually happen? Not too sure.

And one problem for me in pitching for that red wall vote is how far to the right you have to lurch in order to attract it. All that flag waving and how much we love our country bullish!t. And they probably don't fully trust you actually mean it anyway.

Leroy42

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Yes FPTP is a huge problem. Only chance with it is forming some grand electoral pact with Scots nats, lib dems and maybe plaid and greens too. But could that actually happen? Not too sure.

And one problem for me in pitching for that red wall vote is how far to the right you have to lurch in order to attract it. All that flag waving and how much we love our country bullish!t. And they probably don't fully trust you actually mean it anyway.

And yet Labour are showing no signs of pushing for change. There is an open goal. Show people are unbalanced the system is.

The problem is that Labour hope they can take advantage of that very system so have little incentive to pursue it.

Brexit was all about taking back control, and they could show that a change in the system would give all voters more control.

There is plenty they could do, but as said earlier, Labour don't seem to actually have an idea what they stand for. If you can't convince yourself that you would make a difference then no surprise when nobody else is convinced.

Strazdas

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Yes FPTP is a huge problem. Only chance with it is forming some grand electoral pact with Scots nats, lib dems and maybe plaid and greens too. But could that actually happen? Not too sure.

And one problem for me in pitching for that red wall vote is how far to the right you have to lurch in order to attract it. All that flag waving and how much we love our country bullish!t. And they probably don't fully trust you actually mean it anyway.

Imagine having to pander to the prejudices of the Red Wall voters in the hope that they might somehow switch support back to you. The FPTP system is heavily loaded in favour of right wing parties and right wing voters.

Ironically though, it may well hasten the end of the UK as a union.

Joe_ Public

Leroy42 wrote: »

And yet Labour are showing no signs of pushing for change. There is an open goal. Show people are unbalanced the system is.

The problem is that Labour hope they can take advantage of that very system so have little incentive to pursue it.

Brexit was all about taking back control, and they could show that a change in the system would give all voters more control.

There is plenty they could do, but as said earlier, Labour don't seem to actually have an idea what they stand for. If you can't convince yourself that you would make a difference then no surprise when nobody else is convinced.

As soon as they lost Scotland for good, that's when it should have dawned on them for sure that the system would be always heavily against them. And can see Wales gradually edging away too. On top of that, boundary changes are likely to come into play before 2024 and they won't do labour any favours. It would probably take years and more than one election but they should at least be talking about it anyway and making the case for change in people's minds. If they do in fact support it, that is.

Strazdas

Joe_ Public wrote: »

As soon as they lost Scotland for good, that's when it should have dawned on them for sure that the system would be always heavily against them. And can see Wales gradually edging away too. On top of that, boundary changes are likely to come into play before 2024 and they won't do labour any favours. It would probably take years and more than one election but they should at least be talking about it anyway and making the case for change in people's minds. If they do in fact support it, that is.

The culture wars and tribalism are playing out well for the Tories. They have spotted that having a deeply divided country may well keep them in power for decades.

I suppose the one risk for the Tories / Brexiteers is that they end up bankrupting the place a la FF in 2008-10. No amount of spin or propaganda from their press pals could cover that up.

Joe_ Public

Strazdas wrote: »

The culture wars and tribalism are playing out well for the Tories. They have spotted that having a deeply divided country may well keep them in power for decades.

I suppose the one risk for the Tories / Brexiteers is that they end up bankrupting the place a la FF in 2008-10. No amount of spin or propaganda from their press pals could cover that up.

I think they might be ok though as they have located the magic money tree, you know, the same one that has been used to bash labour over the head through multiple election cycles. A few more good labour policies of recent manifestos to be nicked as well, might see them safely through for a while yet i fancy.

Rjd2

Labour and the internet need to accept also that Boris is an incredibly gifted politician. Implementing policy he is hopeless, but arguably the most charismatic politician the UK have produced over last few decades bar Blair.

Ideally for Labour a scandal would take him down, but so much has came out over last few decades he seems bullet proof.

Oddly their best chance may be due to the fact that Murdoch supposedly loathes him, but still highly likely to contest the next election.

PommieBast

Leroy42 wrote: »

The problem is that Labour hope they can take advantage of that very system so have little incentive to pursue it.

I've been trying to track down a quote by (I think) Robin Cook about how FPTP gives Labour power once in a generation, but when that time comes they let it go to their heads. The behaviour of Labour Lords is very much waiting for the pendulum even if it takes a long time.

Joe_ Public

First poll i've seen out from Hartlepool makes for pretty grim reading for labour. And Tice down to 1% so not many buying whatever brand of poison he peddling this time around.

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1379207704112156677?s=20

fiveleavesleft

Joe_ Public wrote: »

First poll i've seen out from Hartlepool makes for pretty grim reading for labour. And Tice down to 1% so not many buying whatever brand of poison he peddling this time around.

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1379207704112156677?s=20

This & the beating they will get in the locals might knock a bit of sense into them.