2020 Irish EV sales

beauf

Those Kate and James YouTubers have some interesting videos less technical , on repairing EVs and battery replacement.

ELM327

beauf wrote: »

Those Kate and James YouTubers have some interesting videos less technical , on repairing EVs and battery replacement.

I wont watch them ever since they tried denying rapidgate was a thing, even to the point of saying "Its not rapidgating" without showing the car dash or charger screen to verify speed.


They are either extremely biased, or bought and paid for. I dont know which

beauf

ELM327 wrote: »

I wont watch them ever since they tried denying rapidgate was a thing, even to the point of saying "Its not rapidgating" without showing the car dash or charger screen to verify speed.


They are either extremely biased, or bought and paid for. I dont know which

I think you have to assume most tubers are to some extent. They do seem a little inconsistent and fickle. But isn't that most people.

Kramer

beauf wrote: »

I think you have to assume most tubers are to some extent

Kim Java, aka "Like Tesla" Kim went the other way - from Tesla fanboy to a female, John Cadogan :eek:.

Maybe Kate will follow?

Or that baggy pants UK fella who had his Leaf pis$ed on - being flown around the world doing EV reviews now, courtesy of Youtube fame .

Kramer

sk8board wrote: »

The final numbers for EV’s in 2020 were 4.5% of sales, 4,000 sales v 3,500 (3%) in 2019

That's pretty abysmal IMO. 500 more BEVs than last year.
Probably half that paltry increase, or close to it, is due to Tesla Model 3 deliveries. Remember many have been waiting for the Model 3 for almost 3 years :eek:.

Considering the many, many extra models available in 2020, ID.3, 3008, new Zoe, Honda E, Mini E, etc., I think it's pretty bad. Just 500 over last year, 500 excess mortality sales, despite all the environmental hysteria & rapid roll out of fast chargers by eCars, is bad.

All we had a few years ago were Leafs & Ioniqs with a very rare eGolf or i3. Then the Kona/eNiro/eSoul 64s came along & boosted sales - the first long range "affordable" BEVs.

2020 should have seen a doubling IMO, notwithstanding the virus, but just 500 more than last year.................Greta will have to strike again .

beauf

Kramer wrote: »

....
2020 should have seen a doubling IMO, notwithstanding the virus, but just 500 more than last year.................Greta will have to strike again .

I'd say a lot of people felt what would be the point of buying any car, considering lockdowns and WFH. So didn't.

the_amazing_raisin

Kramer wrote: »

That's pretty abysmal IMO. 500 more BEVs than last year.
Probably half that paltry increase, or close to it, is due to Tesla Model 3 deliveries. Remember many have been waiting for the Model 3 for almost 3 years :eek:.

Considering the many, many extra models available in 2020, ID.3, 3008, new Zoe, Honda E, Mini E, etc., I think it's pretty bad. Just 500 over last year, 500 excess mortality sales, despite all the environmental hysteria & rapid roll out of fast chargers by eCars, is bad.

All we had a few years ago were Leafs & Ioniqs with a very rare eGolf or i3. Then the Kona/eNiro/eSoul 64s came along & boosted sales - the first long range "affordable" BEVs.

2020 should have seen a doubling IMO, notwithstanding the virus, but just 500 more than last year.................Greta will have to strike again .

Is it surprising really? Pretty much every country that has seen massive EV growth this year has seen a massive expansion of charging infrastructure first. People want to be sure of the charging availability before jumping into EV world


In sunny Ireland in 2020 we got what, 1 HPC provided by ESB (bearing in mind some of the HPCs are still limited to 50kW)? At least Ionity got to work installing proper hubs, just need them to expand to other routes now

liamog

What I find really interesting is comparing cars where there is a direct competitor in brand.

Kia Niro - 44.21% Electric
Hyundai Kona - 21.41% Electric
Mini Hatch - 33.83% Electric
VW Golf/I.D. - 15.14% Electric
Renault Clio/Zoe - 17.34% Electric
Audi Q7/e-tron - 45.34% Electric

BMW 3 Series/Tesla Model 3 - 48.53% Electric

I'm taking the mick a bit with the last one, but you get the point.

sk8board

Top 10 EV registrations 2020:
The model 3 is top but only had 3 key delivery months of Jan,Jul and Sept - very low monthly numbers otherwise and v little for almost 4 months now.
The ID.3 seems to be the top seller across Europe/NO/U.K. ,and by some margin, since it’s release, no major surprise.

M3 724 18.04%
LEAF 617 15.38%
KONA 497 12.38%
NIRO 393 9.79%
ID.3 358 8.92%
ZOE 232 5.78%
SOUL 225 5.61%
IONIQ 196 4.88%
E GOLF 175 4.36%
MINI 114

Kramer

beauf wrote: »

I'd say a lot of people felt what would be the point of buying any car, considering lockdowns and WFH. So didn't.

Over 88,000 did buy brand new cars though :eek:.

sk8board wrote: »

Top 10 EV registrations 2020:
The model 3 is top

M3 724

So sales of BEVs were up 500 over 2019, but the Model 3 alone accounted for all of that increase, plus 200 more.
There was pent up demand for the Model 3 with orders from the previous 2/3 years, all being fulfilled in 2020.
Imagine if VW had taken preorders for the ID.3 for 2 years & then fulfilled them all in one quarter - that would skew the numbers too.

Anyway, I reckon full BEVs will remain a niche buy & sales will remain in single digits for quite a few years here, until they get cheaper or Eamon taxes ICEs more heavily.

liamog

0.98% 2018
2.94% 2019
4.54% for 2020, @Kramer, care to make a prediction for sales next year?

the_amazing_raisin

The fact remains that more and more people are choosing to go electric. There's a lot of value in that as when people see their friends, colleagues and neighbours buying EVs they begin to think about buying one themselves with their next car.

Maybe it'll plateau at some point in the future but I don't see growth stopping anytime soon. With luck, the increased demand will encourage more fast charging providers to set up here and give the ESB some real competition. Hopefully it'll also drive solutions to the lack of charging facilities for people without driveways

ELM327

Norway (often hailed, rightly, as a panacea) has 57% of sales in 2020 as full BEV (source: Kris Rifa youtube video). 54.3% quoted in the guardian https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/05/electric-cars-record-market-share-norway

We are not going to be there for some time.

Kramer

liamog wrote: »

0.98% 2018
2.94% 2019
4.54% for 2020, @Kramer, care to make a prediction for sales next year?

Already did, previous post.

Kramer wrote: »

Anyway, I reckon full BEVs will remain a niche buy & sales will remain in single digits for quite a few years here, until they get cheaper or Eamon taxes ICEs more heavily.

Single digits unless/until they drop significantly in price &/or ICE get dscentivised/taxed more heavily.

Even then, full BEVs will remain niche here for many years & plateaux, probably somewhere in the 20/25% area, but that's years away.

Obviously government can force through 100% BEV sales, if they want, so my predictions are based on current criteria. New tech like solid state batteries/1,000km range/10 minute charge etc. could also push sales up quickly.

sk8board

Kramer wrote: »

So sales of BEVs were up 500 over 2019, but the Model 3 alone accounted for all of that increase, plus 200 more.
There was pent up demand for the Model 3 with orders from the previous 2/3 years, all being fulfilled in 2020.
Imagine if VW had taken preorders for the ID.3 for 2 years & then fulfilled them all in one quarter - that would skew the numbers too.

That’s definitely true for 2020 and previous years with the Tesla folks who put deposits down as far back as March 2016 (I very nearly did myself, but then realised it was going to be a mirage for a few years), but there’s going to be a lot of more new EV models from all the manufacturers each year into the future, so that effect will be gone.
You’ll also see the Tesla effect will matter far less when the Y is eventually delivered, as most of the Irish EV early adopters who would only buy a Tesla will already have one.

Kramer

liamog wrote: »

0.98% 2018
2.94% 2019
4.54% for 2020

Put it like this. If sales in 2020 mimicked 2019 at approx 118k with 4k BEVs, it would have been 3.42% BEV, just 0.5% up on the previous year.

I reckon BEV sales were nowhere near as effected as general car sales due to the virus. Tesla buyers were waiting 1, 2 & 3 years & wouldn't have taken an ICE or gone second hand - they were exclusive Tesla buyers. That alone accounted for the full increase on the previous year.

New BEV purchasers tend to be techies & often, largely work in tech. They are unaffected by the virus/lockdowns. Again, heart set on an EV, guaranteed BEV sale.

Aspiring BEV owners are a niche demographic still. It's not a mainstream aspiration............yet.............

liamog

Kramer wrote: »

Put it like this. If sales in 2020 mimicked 2019 at approx 118k with 4k BEVs, it would have been 3.42% BEV, just 0.5% up on the previous year.

And if people stopped buying EVs because their primary benefit goes away in a WFH environment, then the market share could of been 6% instead in a normal 2020. The arguments around the 'hard' number are basically unactionable.

Go on, give us a percentage share estimate for 2021, it's not like it's going to cost you anything!

ELM327

Kramer wrote: »

Already did, previous post.



Single digits unless/until they drop significantly in price &/or ICE get dscentivised/taxed more heavily.

Even then, full BEVs will remain niche here for many years & plateaux, probably somewhere in the 20/25% area, but that's years away.

Obviously government can force through 100% BEV sales, if they want, so my predictions are based on current criteria. New tech like solid state batteries/1,000km range/10 minute charge etc. could also push sales up quickly.

Agree 100% with you here. I dont see full BEV going past 25% before 2030 at least. Norway after 10 years of incentives, punitive taxes on ICE cars and dirt cheap electricity, still is only at 57% market share in 2020 sales, and below half of cars in their fleet.


We're a good 5-8 years behind Norway in terms of takeup, mindset and infrastructure

ELM327

liamog wrote: »

And if people stopped buying EVs because their primary benefit goes away in a WFH environment, then the market share could of been 6% instead in a normal 2020. The arguments around the 'hard' number are basically unactionable.

Go on, give us a percentage share estimate for 2021, it's not like it's going to cost you anything!

I tell you what, I bought my S doing 50-60k km per year in Q3 2019. Had I known what was around the corner I would not have bought any EV. I now WFH as does herself, no indication of that changing post covid, and mileage probably now at 15k km per year max. High priced EVs no longer make sense in such a scenario. While I'm keeping mine as a luxury asset, not many would make the decision now to buy. And we're the early adapters still remember on this board.

Kramer

liamog wrote: »

Go on, give us a percentage share estimate for 2021, it's not like it's going to cost you anything!

My reputation :pac:.

It won't be a "normal" year with the continuing pandemic & uncertainty regarding used EV supply from the UK. Indeed, if all value for used UK imports is stifled, it may boost domestic sales. There's loads of unspent money here now too - that could lead to a surge in new car sales..........

That said, I guess 6/7% of 2021 new car sales will be full BEV. That's erring on the optimistic side too .

liamog

ELM327 wrote: »

I tell you what, I bought my S doing 50-60k km per year in Q3 2019. Had I known what was around the corner I would not have bought any EV. I now WFH as does herself, no indication of that changing post covid, and mileage probably now at 15k km per year max. High priced EVs no longer make sense in such a scenario. While I'm keeping mine as a luxury asset, not many would make the decision now to buy. And we're the early adapters still remember on this board.

Indeed, I know people who deferred planned upgrades last year, they are in a decent enough financial situation, due to uncertainty around working patterns from the second half of 2021 they've put any decision on hold.

sk8board

ELM327 wrote: »

I tell you what, I bought my S doing 50-60k km per year in Q3 2019. Had I known what was around the corner I would not have bought any EV. I now WFH as does herself, no indication of that changing post covid, and mileage probably now at 15k km per year max. High priced EVs no longer make sense in such a scenario. While I'm keeping mine as a luxury asset, not many would make the decision now to buy. And we're the early adapters still remember on this board.

Similarly, we got a new car last Jan, put 4,500 on it in the first 2 months, commuting and family use - and it has 7,600 on it today!
Just 3,100 in 10 months.

And my 4 series is sitting next to it on the drive and I barely use it at all.
At our next change we’ll almost certainly move to one car, and probably EV as range no longer a concern for us.

pullandbang

liamog wrote: »

Indeed, I know people who deferred planned upgrades last year, they are in a decent enough financial situation, due to uncertainty around working patterns from the second half of 2021 they've put any decision on hold.

Agree.
I'm one of those as is my daughter. She'd planned on buying either a PHEV or BEV and I was buying a BEV (and a diesel van )
We've both decided to wait and see how things pan out. I'll still buy the van once the lockdown lifts but the BEV can wait.

ELM327

sk8board wrote: »

Similarly, we got a new car last Jan, put 4,500 on it in the first 2 months, commuting and family use - and it has 7,600 on it today!
Just 3,100 in 10 months.

And my 4 series is sitting next to it on the drive and I barely use it at all.
At our next change we’ll almost certainly move to one car, and probably EV as range no longer a concern for us.

The funny thing for me is, range is still very much a concern for me.
As we live rurally, every trip anywhere is 20k each way plus. That's even to the nearest tesco. (we have a local shop for milk/bread but I'd walk there rather than drive)


So even if I'm doing 2 trips a week to the town of 40 km each, and the usual blended family childcare trips of 160km return at the weekend, I'd still need a long range EV to manage comfortably.



That 160km was a struggle in the Ioniq in the depths of winter and we'd arrive back with 5% on the SOC. Therefore realistically you're lookimg at 300km WLTP range before it's viable for us to have an EV, and I suspect the same is true for most rural dwellers


What has the above to do with EV sales you may ask? Well, as people are a) less likely to spend a lot of money on a luxury - a new car of any sort let a lone a BEV and b) BEVs with 300km range or more WLTP are generally much more expensive than an equivalent ICE, I therefore don't see much rise in EV sales for the next few years



Certainly we won't achieve even 50% of the fleet being BEV by 2030.

sk8board

Speaking very generally, the people who can afford a new car, never mind a €50-100k EV are the ones who have increased their saving level during the lockdown and are financially ‘better off’ from it.
As tends to be the case, the people who lost jobs in this pandemic are mostly lower paid and part time roles who wouldn’t make up many of the 100,000 new car buyers.
Also worth remembering that there are 3.5m people over 18 in Ireland - so those buying a brand new car each year is only about 1 in 40, maybe more.

fricatus

Kramer wrote: »

New tech like solid state batteries/1,000km range/10 minute charge etc. could also push sales up quickly.

That’s true, but I think most experienced BEV drivers know that 1,000 km range and 10-minute charging are not necessary. About 350 km and 30 minutes is fine for most people without compromising too much, as long as the infrastructure is there - and this is improving. Despite our criticisms of eCars, it’s so much easier now to charge on the road because there are no freeloaders and more units.

Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t turn down 1,000 km range and 10-minute charging, but there’s no way I’d pay a premium for it. As more people drive EVs, more people will realise that the petrol-station mindset no longer applies, and this will help sales.

liamog

ELM327 wrote: »

Certainly we won't achieve even 50% of the fleet being BEV by 2030.

It's interesting that people who are bearish on EV sales numbers seem to talk about fleet percentage, whereas those who are bullish tend to refer to sales percentage. For products with an average lifecycle of 15 years, I don't think it makes sense to look at adoption as a percentage of fleet. I think it's much more representative to track adoption rates at the entry point into the market, i.e. new sales.

ELM327

liamog wrote: »

It's interesting that people who are bearish on EV sales numbers seem to talk about fleet percentage, whereas those who are bullish tend to refer to sales percentage. For products with an average lifecycle of 15 years, I don't think it makes sense to look at adoption as a percentage of fleet. I think it's much more representative to track adoption rates at the entry point into the market, i.e. new sales.

I also would not think we would have 50% of new sales. Norway are only at 54-57% now and we are years behind.

sk8board

liamog wrote: »

It's interesting that people who are bearish on EV sales numbers seem to talk about fleet percentage, whereas those who are bullish tend to refer to sales percentage. For products with an average lifecycle of 15 years, I don't think it makes sense to look at adoption as a percentage of fleet. I think it's much more representative to track adoption rates at the entry point into the market, i.e. new sales.

Well it’s not really a bearish view
- if you believe in EVs for climate reasons, then % of new car sales isn’t as important as % of vehicles on the road, in the long run.

- Likewise, if you believe in EVs for running cost reasons, then the cost of a new EV is a huge factor in the overall cost of ownership.

- and finally, the % of fleet is a huge factor in infrastructure rollout, especially in a low population density country like Ireland.

None of the above is bearish on EVs - we’re just pointing out that selling 4,000 EVs into a fleet of 2.5m is only the very tip of a starting point and there’s a long way to go, well beyond the current Gov thinking on ICE ‘bans’, which are almost certain to slip

liamog

sk8board wrote: »

Well it’s not really a bearish view

...

None of the above is bearish on EVs - we’re just pointing out that selling 4,000 EVs into a fleet of 2.5m is only the very tip of a starting point and there’s a long way to go, well beyond the current Gov thinking on ICE ‘bans’, which are almost certain to slip

Bullish and bearish refers to the optimism/pessimism as regards to the %number. You can be 100% anti EV, but still be bullish on the adoption figure because you believe regulatory requirements (such as a ban on sales) will cause those numbers to achieved.

Under the current regulations (Regulation (EU) 2019/631) the 2030 passengar car requirement is a 37.5% reduction from the 2021 starting point. Meaning that the fleet target is 59.3gCO2/km of tailpipe emissions.
There is an open consultation to tighten rather than loosen these targets.

With this background, do we really believe that the Irish market, will become the exceptional one where EU automakers choose to sell their higher emitting vehicles against a backdrop of a government which has a ban on the very same vehicles? The reality is Irish government bans are going to do very little to impact the numbers, but the combination of EU targets and UK bans means we are likely going to see the change happen anyway.

timsey tiger

liamog wrote: »

With this background, do we really believe that the Irish market, will become the exceptional one where EU automakers choose to sell their higher emitting vehicles against a backdrop of a government which has a ban on the very same vehicles? The reality is Irish government bans are going to do very little to impact the numbers, but the combination of EU targets and UK bans means we are likely going to see the change happen anyway.

Would EU manufacturers even bother to make right hand drive cars for us if they couldn't sell them in UK too?

the_amazing_raisin

timsey tiger wrote: »

Would EU manufacturers even bother to make right hand drive cars for us if they couldn't sell them in UK too?

Well there's Malta as well, not to mention other RHD counties on other continents.


But if that were the case then it's likely we'd just buy LHD cars here instead

sk8board

timsey tiger wrote: »

Would EU manufacturers even bother to make right hand drive cars for us if they couldn't sell them in UK too?

On a per-unit basis, If Tesla’s can come from San Francisco and pay the Panama crossing too, then the likes of bmw, merc or Toyota etc be might send a ship or two from their South African plants.

(that may also be the maddest idea I’ll have all week. The U.K. is a MASSIVE market for the Germans, and Toyota already have enough Japanese plants for RHD manufacturing).

timsey tiger

cruisey1987 wrote: »

Well there's Malta as well, not to mention other RHD counties on other continents.


But if that were the case then it's likely we'd just buy LHD cars here instead

Malta lol

Honestly, I think most people would rationalise that they hardly ever drive more than 200km in a day and would go for a low range electric over a smelly lhd desiel.

Two years time we'll all be driving toyotas with solid state batteries anyway as the s curve kicks in and covid19 won't be the only thing with near vertical growth.

ELM327

timsey tiger wrote: »

Malta lol

Honestly, I think most people would rationalise that they hardly ever drive more than 200km in a day and would go for a low range electric over a smelly lhd desiel.

Two years time we'll all be driving toyotas with solid state batteries anyway as the s curve kicks in and covid19 won't be the only thing with near vertical growth.

There's literally not one part of this post that I agree with

timsey tiger

ELM327 wrote: »

There's literally not one part of this post that I agree with

Malta lol? - You think Malta is a significant auto market?

timsey tiger

sk8board wrote: »

On a per-unit basis, If Tesla’s can come from San Francisco and pay the Panama crossing too, then the likes of bmw, merc or Toyota etc be might send a ship or two from their South African plants.

(that may also be the maddest idea I’ll have all week. The U.K. is a MASSIVE market for the Germans, and Toyota already have enough Japanese plants for RHD manufacturing).

After the extra 10% tax will those cheap ice cars appeal that much, remember with volume and research ev's are rappidly geating cheaper.

ELM327

timsey tiger wrote: »

Malta lol? - You think Malta is a significant auto market?

Thweres more a chance of malta becoming the worlds leading superpower than there is of toyota solid state battery coming out in 2 years, or of people buying short range EVs to replace diesels.

sk8board

timsey tiger wrote: »

After the extra 10% tax will those cheap ice cars appeal that much, remember with volume and research ev's are rappidly geating cheaper.

Yep, it’s that import tax that makes me wonder might our cars come from elsewhere - but it’s unlikely that a 3rd country could send us cars cheaper than the Germans could make them for us in v small volumes on their existing plant lines.

liamog

Under the UK/EU trade agreement there is a preferential tariff of 0% on the import of new/used motor vehicles so long as the majority of a UK manufactured car is from the UK/EU.
The used market will be hit with the requirement to pay Irish VAT at the time of import.

timsey tiger

liamog wrote: »

Under the UK/EU trade agreement there is a preferential tariff of 0% on the import of new/used motor vehicles so long as the majority of a UK manufactured car is from the UK/EU.
The used market will be hit with the requirement to pay Irish VAT at the time of import.

We talking about the hypothetical situation where the UK have banned ice vehicles, yet Ireland persists in buying them.

liamog

timsey tiger wrote: »

We talking about the hypothetical situation where the UK have banned ice vehicles, yet Ireland persists in buying them.

Oh you meant a 10% tax on cars from some random third country that decides to export RHD vehicles to Ireland.

the_amazing_raisin

ELM327 wrote: »

Thweres more a chance of malta becoming the worlds leading superpower than there is of toyota solid state battery coming out in 2 years, or of people buying short range EVs to replace diesels.

Don't underestimate those Maltese

liamog

I think I was wrong on the 10% import duty, turns out the car has to be manufactured in the UK and have more than 40% of the parts built in the UK to skip the 10% duty.
I take that to mean purchasing a second hand Leaf from the UK would attract just the 21% VAT, purchasing a BMW I3 would attract 21% VAT plus 10% import duty.