2020 Irish EV sales

RedorDead

Following on from the last thread below

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058042272

in what is supposed to be a pivotal year for EV sales in Ireland things havent got off to the best start really. The surge customers and dealers were expecting isnt there. Figures correct to 27th January:

Sabre Man

How does this compare to new car sales in general?

innrain

Is there not a big issue with the grants being approved very slowly? I think I saw people complaining the are still waiting even though they've placed the order mid December.
2020 is going to be pivotal by the fact that there will be new models launch like iD3, e208 and e2008, ecorsa, Model Y, Skoda citigo, Seat el-born, HondaE, Polestar2 and XC40 and probably many others I forgot now. Very few are launched already and none in Ireland. EV sale is not necessarily following the trend of the ICEs with the peaks in January and July. Look at November 2019.

VikingG

yes a little disappointing.. however that is 615 new electric cars that will have mainly replaced ICE models...

VikingG

innrain wrote: »

. Look at November 2019.

wasnt this due to all of the model 3s arriving at the same time.

maximoose

Sabre Man wrote: »

How does this compare to new car sales in general?

Passenger car sales were 5.4% down after the 20 day mark

Is there a supply issue with the Kona/Zoe? Big drop off

Black_Knight

There's only so many mid sized expensive EV buyers out there. Kona was a landmark EV with ~400km range. Niro and soul too, if they could supply them.

But what car would you buy now that you couldn't buy last year? Model 3 is about all, and it's pretty pricey. ID3 might bump sales if we see it in 2020. Anything else going to be a landmark EV of 2020 which will get good adoption?

Black_Knight

innrain wrote: »

Is there not a big issue with the grants being approved very slowly? I think I saw people complaining the are still waiting even though they've placed the order mid December.
2020 is going to be pivotal by the fact that there will be new models launch like iD3, e208 and e2008, ecorsa, Model Y, Skoda citigo, Seat el-born, HondaE, Polestar2 and XC40 and probably many others I forgot now. Very few are launched already and none in Ireland. EV sale is not necessarily following the trend of the ICEs with the peaks in January and July. Look at November 2019.

My biggest hope for those cars is that they bring some competition in price. Pity they're mostly small cars. With EVs being more expensive, and these mostly being small, they'd likely be the 2nd car in a household. Typically the big money would be spent on the primary car of they household, of which there are very few EVs.

innrain

Polestar 2 will be a nice competitor to the BMW M5 segment.
I'm not optimistic about prices dropping quickly. ID3 is already announced at quite elevated prices. corsa-e starts at 32k GBP. But this will bring choice. With the EU fines coming the manufacturers will drop the prices but slowly not to damage their ICE segment.

Black_Knight

innrain wrote: »

Polestar 2 will be a nice competitor to the BMW M5 segment.
I'm not optimistic about prices dropping quickly. ID3 is already announced at quite elevated prices. corsa-e starts at 32k GBP. But this will bring choice. With the EU fines coming the manufacturers will drop the prices but slowly not to damage their ICE segment.

Corsa for that money? Seems like a ludicrous choice. Small hatches should cost twenty something thousand euro, not 30 something.

unkel

RedorDead wrote: »

in what is supposed to be a pivotal year for EV sales in Ireland

According to who?

Next year is a pivotal year for EV sales, not this year.

Black_Knight

unkel wrote: »

According to who?

Next year is a pivotal year for EV sales, not this year.

According to who? :pac:

I know I've heard yourself mention 2021 is the year for the EV, but what's that founded upon?

Kramer

unkel wrote: »

Next year is a pivotal year for EV sales, not this year.

I don't think so. I expected an increase in EV sales (& general car sales overall) with the arrival of the new 201 plates. 191/192 regs are so passé now :cool:.

The Kona was the first "affordable" BEV to market with a good range. It sold well despite its poor speck & diminutive size. Many existing EV early adopters upgraded immediately, including many with 1st gen Leafs with, by now, tiny ranges. Ioniq 28 owners upgraded regularly too for the extra range.

Many opted for the Kona because of the tax & company benefits, BIK exemption & fuel savings (free ECars charging & €8 at Ionity for a full charge) etc. Plus it was a great novelty having an EV that could go 450km without recharging.
Many BEV early adopters now have what they need & prices for BEVs have since shot up. Look at the new Kona - the same car, in effect, for almost €5k more than early last year (I got an OTR price of €35k odd Q4 2018).

New Ioniq - similar huge jump in price, worse actually :eek:.

Grants are now being rolled back & will disappear soon enough. Public charging is now expensive (€0.33kWh to €0.79kWh ).

Once the initial appetite among Tesla fans is satiated, along with those smart enough to realise a BEV is ideal for them, I think demand will plateaux.
It may even have already, looking at those January figures.

People will continue to seek out hybrids, thanks to Toyota marketing, with the smarter bears opting for PHEVs.
Until & unless people are taxed out of ICE vehicles, which I've no doubt will happen, full BEVs here will remain a small niche in the car market.

Did anyone see the person on Prime Time who commutes 300km per day (Castlerea to Limerick)? She said an EV wouldn't even get her half way to work (75km)? A young, well educated progressive lady one would assume, completely clueless as to how an eNiro etc. would easily get her to work & back, every day, for a fraction of her diesel cost. Hell, in her case, the eNiro/Kona would literally pay for itself & she'd be helping the environment too.
Disparaging laughter from the audience too at the thought of an EV & a further dig from Marion too regarding her colleague's "love" for EVs. Again, greeted with laughter from the agreeable audience :rolleyes:.

I'm not as optimistic as others here who predict a massive upswing in BEV adoption. PHEVs - yes, far more likely in the next five to ten years while BEVs will remain in the low single digits for a long time IMO.

QED :cool:.

unkel

It's not so much driven by demand, Kramer. It's the EU emissions norms that the manufacturers will have to comply with. They simply mean quite a large percentage of cars being produced from next year will have to be either BEV or PHEV with a fairly decent range.

And when VW will bring out decent range Golf size BEV cars for well under 30k, and the public will be more aware of what's what, very few people will want to buy a similar PHEV car for the same price (or more) that has a substantially higher TCO and no benefits over a BEV whatsoever (presuming public fast charging significantly improves this year and next)

We shall see but I'd say 2021 will see the big change for EV sales in this country. But I could be a year early in my prediction. 2020 unfortunately is not yet the year of the EV over here...

unkel

Kramer wrote: »

I'm not as optimistic as others here who predict a massive upswing in BEV adoption. PHEVs - yes, far more likely in the next five to ten years while BEVs will remain in the low single digits for a long time IMO.

So you are basically predicting that BEV sales of cars in Ireland will still be in single digits in 5 years time, say over the full year 2025?

That's a measurable prediction and I reckon you will be proven very wrong. I'd say it will be at least 30%

PaulRyan97

Can you provide the hybrid and plug-in hybrid sales as well?

RedorDead

unkel wrote: »

According to who?

Next year is a pivotal year for EV sales, not this year.

According to who? Nearly all vehicle manufacturers in Ireland have said this year will should be a pivotal year for EVs - I am qualified to say this as i work in one of them. By the same token, what are you basing your next year is pivotal claim on?

car_radio19834

Kramer wrote: »

Did anyone see the person on Prime Time who commutes 300km per day (Castlerea to Limerick)? She said an EV wouldn't even get her half way to work (75km)? A young, well educated progressive lady one would assume, completely clueless as to how an eNiro etc. would easily get her to work & back, every day, for a fraction of her diesel cost. Hell, in her case, the eNiro/Kona would literally pay for itself & she'd be helping the environment too.
Disparaging laughter from the audience too at the thought of an EV & a further dig from Marion too regarding her colleague's "love" for EVs. Again, greeted with laughter from the agreeable audience :rolleyes:.

You have to go and charge the thing every day. You'd nearly have to have the thing charging any time you are at home.

ELM327

car_radio19834 wrote: »

You have to go and charge the thing every day. You'd nearly have to have the thing charging any time you are at home.

Just like your phone. And your laptop. And anything else. That's the idea.


You can charge it fully every night easily. Takes 30 seconds to plug in. Less if like me you have a tethered charger at home.


Let's take today as an example of why long range EVs are great.
I drove 70km to work. I didnt charge at home, I'm charging for free at work. I have an appointment later at a clients office 50km away, then a couple of 20km detours, then back 70km to the office, then back home, 70km. That's about 310km or so, I'm not sure what the detours are going to be yet... All for 100% free as I have work charging (except for 4*€0.75 tolls)! If it was at home, it would have cost about €5.

To do that trip in our prius would cost about €25 in fuel plus double the tolls.

unkel

RedorDead wrote: »

According to who? Nearly all vehicle manufacturers in Ireland have said this year will should be a pivotal year for EVs - I am qualified to say this as i work in one of them.

According to me, for above reasons. Ok if you're so qualified, please give your prediction for 2025 BEV sales as percentages of new cars sold in Ireland. And let there be reckoning on this thread at the end of that year and see who was right.

RedorDead

PaulRyan97 wrote: »

Can you provide the hybrid and plug-in hybrid sales as well?

Hybrid being dominated by Toyota as its essentially their only fuel source now.



Plug in hybrid still a mixed bag. 3 Series leading the way. Landrover surprisingly strong.

RedorDead

unkel wrote: »

According to me, for above reasons. Ok if you're so qualified, please give your prediction for 2025 BEV sales as percentages of new cars sold in Ireland. And let there be reckoning on this thread at the end of that year and see who was right.

Well qualify it by saying its your opinion then first. What i mean by my point is of course EV sales in 2021 are going to be higher than in 2020 and this will be the case for each subsequent year from now on. But with emission targets and subsequent Co2 fines and this is the first year in terms of launches and Co2 focus that EVs are this high on the agenda as they've ever been. Its been talked about by all manufacturers i converse with as being a pivotal year - ergo my point. And its also why the 28 day figures dont bear that especially out. Thus my post.

As for 2025 - if i knew that i would have the lotto numbers for tonight's draw and wouldn't be working here tomorrow . Nobody - even the manufacturers, nor the government has a clue. Richard Bruton will not be getting his million cars by 2030 however. Utterly delusional.

KCross

RedorDead wrote: »

As for 2025 - if i knew that i would have the lotto numbers for tonight's draw and wouldn't be working here tomorrow . Nobody - even the manufacturers, nor the government has a clue. Richard Bruton will not be getting his million cars by 2030 however. Utterly delusional.

You’re right on all counts there.

It’s impossible to predict how the next few years will actually pan out for BEV sales. So many variables anything could happen.

One thing is for sure is that the manufacturers will control it in the medium term, not the market.

The easy prediction is that BEV sales will grow but the % is impossible.

I’d be thinking we’d be very lucky to have 30% BEV sales for the year 2025. Wouldn’t surprise me to see <20% though.

KCross

RedorDead wrote: »

Hybrid being dominated by Toyota as its essentially their only fuel source now.

1400 Corollas already!!! That’s a massive seller for them. Their marketing department are genius.

jusmeig

RedorDead wrote: »

According to who? Nearly all vehicle manufacturers in Ireland have said this year will should be a pivotal year for EVs - I am qualified to say this as i work in one of them. By the same token, what are you basing your next year is pivotal claim on?

I don't work a major car manufacturer in Ireland, however as a customer I can 100% confirm that until recently BIG auto has been hoping and praying that the latest EV revolution will fail. This is clearly evident from the myriad of compliance cars, and the willingness to pay outrageously high sums to get regulatory credits. This wait it out attitude was seen as the lesser evil to forking out billions in R&D, factory retooling etc.

Now that EVs are coming out in bigger numbers, it's the consumer that has realised that they are better, and that they want more of them. Why would a betting man say NEXT year and not this year -> I would base that on VW. They have doubled down big time to the tune of billions. 2020 is to the year they launch from compliance into mainstream EVs...but if you look at the guidance for 2020...they are only ramping up and mostly targeting Europe/key markets. The big US autos are only doubling down with cash now (GM), again 2021 before any models launch in volume.

Model 3 deliveries for Feb/March will greatly inflate them numbers then taper off, but there is no other manufacturer selling an EV at that scale in 2020 that will significantly offset. ID3 towards middle/end of year another blip. In 2021 all the BIG auto companies will have EV models that they want to sell as part of their line-ups, in 2020 they are seem to be ramping up their production. My bet is on 2021...if we are all still here to find out

timsey tiger

Anybody know what's up with the zoe sales. Have deliveries of the new model started or are people waiting for these?

unkel

RedorDead wrote: »

As for 2025 - if i knew that i would have the lotto numbers for tonight's draw

That's a cop out!

Of course nobody knows the future, but if one has a strong opinion, one should be brave enough to make a prediction. Like Kramer and I did. What's your predicted percentage pure BEVs in passenger cars for Ireland over 2025?

liamog

Have Leaf 60's hit the market yet?
In terms of >400km affordable cars, we basically only have the Korean crossovers.
e-Niro is supply-constrained, the Kona has likely met most of its new model demand, and I'm not sure on the availability of the Soul.

My prediction is that we'll see a much higher EV percentage on 202 plates than the 201's because of all the new models. I reckon EVs will hit about 5% this year, and 10% next year.

innrain

RedorDead wrote: »

Well qualify it by saying its your opinion then first. What i mean by my point is of course EV sales in 2021 are going to be higher than in 2020 and this will be the case for each subsequent year from now on. But with emission targets and subsequent Co2 fines and this is the first year in terms of launches and Co2 focus that EVs are this high on the agenda as they've ever been. Its been talked about by all manufacturers i converse with as being a pivotal year - ergo my point. And its also why the 28 day figures dont bear that especially out. Thus my post.

2020 would be a pivotal point on the global market. Ireland lags a bit due to the market size.

Tesla was very quick in opening the order book in IE after UK - 4 weeks but deliveries took longer 8 -10 weeks first Irish Model3 vs UK first, if I'm not mistaken.

Corsa e , Polestar2 can be ordered in UK not in Ireland. Seat Mii is under 20k GBP, not available in Ireland. Skoda Citigo e is starting at 17k GBP in UK not available in Ireland. You can place a pre-booking for HondaE in Uk but not in Ireland. Go to Volvo Uk website and click on cars: first model they present is XC40 electric - coming soon. The same exercise Irish website XC40 plug-in hybrid. They will come eventually but not in the first month. The manufactures have this speech with the global market in mind.

ELM327

liamog wrote: »

Have Leaf 60's hit the market yet?
In terms of >400km affordable cars, we basically only have the Korean crossovers.
e-Niro is supply-constrained, the Kona has likely met most of its new model demand, and I'm not sure on the availability of the Soul.

My prediction is that we'll see a much higher EV percentage on 202 plates than the 201's because of all the new models. I reckon EVs will hit about 5% this year, and 10% next year.

They have but no one really seems to be buying them
42k for a leaf with 50kW real world charging limitations and no CCS/3phase AC seems really high.

KCross

ELM327 wrote: »

They have but no one really seems to be buying them...

How do you know?

How do you differentiate between L40 and L62 in the sales stats?

ELM327

KCross wrote: »

How do you know?

How do you differentiate between L40 and L62 in the sales stats?

That's a fair point.
As you say there's no way to identify in the sales stats. I'm basing on anecdotal evidence only (seeing them on the road, at chargers, and mostly based on facebook posts)

KCross

ELM327 wrote: »

That's a fair point.
As you say there's no way to identify in the sales stats. I'm basing on anecdotal evidence only (seeing them on the road, at chargers, and mostly based on facebook posts)

Even anecdotally, how would you know? Does an L62 have some extra badge on it?

I’m just not aware of any way to tell the difference from afar... same as the L24/L30.

ELM327

I think they are badged E Plus no?

Gile_na_gile

ELM327 wrote: »

I think they are badged E Plus no?

There is precious little to visually differentiate the new long-range Nissan Leaf from its 40kWh siblings. In essence, you're looking for a blue strip in the front bumper and a little 'e+' logo on the charging port.

Amazing how few people have talked about them on FB. Only one person who did not know the difference between the two models anyway, which heralds the future of EV drivers who are not interested in what's under the hood / floor.

RedorDead

unkel wrote: »

That's a cop out!

Of course nobody knows the future, but if one has a strong opinion, one should be brave enough to make a prediction. Like Kramer and I did. What's your predicted percentage pure BEVs in passenger cars for Ireland over 2025?

I wouldn't say i have a particularly strong opinion. I am just conveying what i hear and what i see from talking to other manufacturers and talking to dealers and customers regularly.

By 2025 - I dont know really its so hard to call but from todays full BEV % share of 2.6% and looking at 2019s % of 2.9% by 2025, i would be thinking it won't be more than 35-40% of the total market (just full BEV) but i think when you combine it with Hybrid and PHEV you will be looking at in excess of 65-75% of the market by then. Diesel will always have a place in Ireland until the government taxes it to the point where its uneconomic even for high mileage users to run it. How long it takes depends on which lunatics we all elect in a couple of weeks.

RedorDead

liamog wrote: »

Have Leaf 60's hit the market yet?
In terms of >400km affordable cars, we basically only have the Korean crossovers.
e-Niro is supply-constrained, the Kona has likely met most of its new model demand, and I'm not sure on the availability of the Soul.

My prediction is that we'll see a much higher EV percentage on 202 plates than the 201's because of all the new models. I reckon EVs will hit about 5% this year, and 10% next year.

Looking at Nissans 20 day detailed splits - out of their 166 Leafs registered 122 were the 40KW version and 44 were the 62KW version.

Sabre Man

There's still time to answer 12 questions about EVs in 2020 if you think you can predict the future.

KCross

RedorDead wrote: »

Looking at Nissans 20 day detailed splits - out of their 166 Leafs registered 122 were the 40KW version and 44 were the 62KW version.

Where do you see that detail? Is it in the beepbeep data or is it only if you are an SIMI dealer that you can see that?

RedorDead

KCross wrote: »

Where do you see that detail? Is it in the beepbeep data or is it only if you are an SIMI dealer that you can see that?

Distributors get a raw more detailed excel feed every 10 days. Its just basically a data dump but with a bit of formatting and playing around you can extract what you need from it.

PaulRyan97

I see SIMI are classifying mild hybrids as hybrid cars then. thought they might distinguish them.

KCross

If you want a pro-EV based prediction (although very US based) take a look at this guy...

If you've watched Tony Seba before he goes through alot of his old stuff (horse to car theory from 1903) but he also has alot of new stuff in this one around autonomy and an update on how his predictions from 2014 are doing. Alot of trumpet blowing on his part since its how he makes money, but its interesting nonetheless.

mp3guy

innrain wrote: »

Is there not a big issue with the grants being approved very slowly? I think I saw people complaining the are still waiting even though they've placed the order mid December.
2020 is going to be pivotal by the fact that there will be new models launch like iD3, e208 and e2008, ecorsa, Model Y, Skoda citigo, Seat el-born, HondaE, Polestar2 and XC40 and probably many others I forgot now. Very few are launched already and none in Ireland. EV sale is not necessarily following the trend of the ICEs with the peaks in January and July. Look at November 2019.

Ordered an EV two weeks ago and grant was approved today, way faster than I was expecting.

Kramer

RedorDead wrote: »

Looking at Nissans 20 day detailed splits - out of their 166 Leafs registered 122 were the 40KW version and 44 were the 62KW version.

So 44 of the 62kWh Leafs registered in January..................wouldn't that be one per dealer...........as in demos? Isn't there 40 odd Nissan main dealers?

Does anyone know of a 62kWh Leaf owner? Surely between all the EV fans here & elsewhere, someone must know someone who has bought one?

Unless, as I think, the only ones registered are dealer demos?

Kramer

unkel wrote: »

So you are basically predicting that BEV sales of cars in Ireland will still be in single digits in 5 years time, say over the full year 2025?

To clarify, I think BEV sales will grow in low single digits each year unless something seismic happens. So 3% to 4% per year increase for a total of 15% of overall sales by 2025.

unkel wrote: »

That's a measurable prediction and I reckon you will be proven very wrong. I'd say it will be at least 30%

That's getting on for a doubling every year then, year on year:
2 > 4 > 8 > 16 > 32, close enough.

I can't see that happening, given we're almost 10 years on since the first Leaf & are still under 3% penetration, despite incessant environmental hysteria.
There is mass ignorance of EVs among the populace (leaning more to disdain actually).
BEVs cost a fortune despite our €10,000 per unit gift to the manufacturers.
ECars have done practically nothing to improve the infrastructure apart from introduce charging (which was needed).
Brexit - who knows how it will affect our economy & the global economy is precarious too.

Many will move to HEV as there's no need to plug them in - they're electric cars too after all :pac:.

PHEVs probably won't do brilliantly either but time will tell.

Old diesel

Good to see Kia getting some units out.

They are probably the best all round "sensible" EV package on the market at present if you can get one.

Good range, roomier then Kona, better value then a CCS equipped Zoe. Less risky then a Tesla for normal users.

Caveat - this could change if ID3 and e2008 offer a competitive offering.

Zoe is probably in wind down transition to the new model.

Black_Knight

https://stats.beepbeep.ie/

99 extra EVs sold in Jan this year vs last year. 12.4% up on last Jan.

IEVOA did a summary:
https://www.irishevowners.ie/irish-bev-sales-january-2020/

kanuseeme

2020 2019

Petrol Electric 4,241 2,206 +92.25%

Electric 898 799 +12.39%

Plug-In Hybrid 561 301 +86.38%

Diesel/Electric 62 0

Who is making the diesel hybrids?

Oafley Jones

kanuseeme wrote: »

2020 2019

Petrol Electric 4,241 2,206 +92.25%

Electric 898 799 +12.39%

Plug-In Hybrid 561 301 +86.38%

Diesel/Electric 62 0

Who is making the diesel hybrids?

Land Rover for one.

beauf

Looking on CarZone theres Merc E300De Hybrid and a couple of BMWs but I think the BMWs are actually petrol.

PaulRyan97

The statistics are a little misleading. SIMI are classifying mild-hybrid vehicles as regular hybrids. So diesel cars with a mild hybrid setup become 'diesel electric' vehicles. 61 of those 62 are Kia Sportage mild hybrids. The other is a Tucson mild hybrid.

Same with 'petrol electric', most of the growth are real hybrid cars but I see some mild hybrids there too. 70 Ford Puma's, I'm not sure if the 12 Skoda Superb's are mild hybrids or just mislabelled plug-in's (which can happen).

This is only going to get worse as more mild-hybrids become available throughout the year (Ford Fiesta, Focus and Kuga, VW Golf, a fair few Audis). The UK stats have them as a separate category.