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2020 Irish EV sales

  • 28-01-2020 4:36pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,592 ✭✭✭ RedorDead


    Following on from the last thread below

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058042272

    in what is supposed to be a pivotal year for EV sales in Ireland things havent got off to the best start really. The surge customers and dealers were expecting isnt there. Figures correct to 27th January:

    yAZWCbF.png


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,995 ✭✭✭ Sabre Man


    How does this compare to new car sales in general?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,474 ✭✭✭ innrain


    Is there not a big issue with the grants being approved very slowly? I think I saw people complaining the are still waiting even though they've placed the order mid December.
    2020 is going to be pivotal by the fact that there will be new models launch like iD3, e208 and e2008, ecorsa, Model Y, Skoda citigo, Seat el-born, HondaE, Polestar2 and XC40 and probably many others I forgot now. Very few are launched already and none in Ireland. EV sale is not necessarily following the trend of the ICEs with the peaks in January and July. Look at November 2019.


  • Registered Users Posts: 455 ✭✭ VikingG


    yes a little disappointing.. however that is 615 new electric cars that will have mainly replaced ICE models...


  • Registered Users Posts: 455 ✭✭ VikingG


    innrain wrote: »
    . Look at November 2019.

    wasnt this due to all of the model 3s arriving at the same time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,155 ✭✭✭ maximoose


    Sabre Man wrote: »
    How does this compare to new car sales in general?

    Passenger car sales were 5.4% down after the 20 day mark

    Is there a supply issue with the Kona/Zoe? Big drop off


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  • Moderators Posts: 11,978 ✭✭✭✭ Black_Knight


    There's only so many mid sized expensive EV buyers out there. Kona was a landmark EV with ~400km range. Niro and soul too, if they could supply them.

    But what car would you buy now that you couldn't buy last year? Model 3 is about all, and it's pretty pricey. ID3 might bump sales if we see it in 2020. Anything else going to be a landmark EV of 2020 which will get good adoption?


  • Moderators Posts: 11,978 ✭✭✭✭ Black_Knight


    innrain wrote: »
    Is there not a big issue with the grants being approved very slowly? I think I saw people complaining the are still waiting even though they've placed the order mid December.
    2020 is going to be pivotal by the fact that there will be new models launch like iD3, e208 and e2008, ecorsa, Model Y, Skoda citigo, Seat el-born, HondaE, Polestar2 and XC40 and probably many others I forgot now. Very few are launched already and none in Ireland. EV sale is not necessarily following the trend of the ICEs with the peaks in January and July. Look at November 2019.

    My biggest hope for those cars is that they bring some competition in price. Pity they're mostly small cars. With EVs being more expensive, and these mostly being small, they'd likely be the 2nd car in a household. Typically the big money would be spent on the primary car of they household, of which there are very few EVs.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,474 ✭✭✭ innrain


    Polestar 2 will be a nice competitor to the BMW M5 segment.
    I'm not optimistic about prices dropping quickly. ID3 is already announced at quite elevated prices. corsa-e starts at 32k GBP. But this will bring choice. With the EU fines coming the manufacturers will drop the prices but slowly not to damage their ICE segment.


  • Moderators Posts: 11,978 ✭✭✭✭ Black_Knight


    innrain wrote: »
    Polestar 2 will be a nice competitor to the BMW M5 segment.
    I'm not optimistic about prices dropping quickly. ID3 is already announced at quite elevated prices. corsa-e starts at 32k GBP. But this will bring choice. With the EU fines coming the manufacturers will drop the prices but slowly not to damage their ICE segment.

    Corsa for that money? Seems like a ludicrous choice. Small hatches should cost twenty something thousand euro, not 30 something.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 58,862 CMod ✭✭✭✭ unkel


    RedorDead wrote: »
    in what is supposed to be a pivotal year for EV sales in Ireland

    According to who?

    Next year is a pivotal year for EV sales, not this year.

    "Wind is Ireland's oil" - An Taoiseach, 25/05/2022



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  • Moderators Posts: 11,978 ✭✭✭✭ Black_Knight


    unkel wrote: »
    According to who?

    Next year is a pivotal year for EV sales, not this year.

    According to who? :pac:

    I know I've heard yourself mention 2021 is the year for the EV, but what's that founded upon?


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,177 ✭✭✭ Kramer


    unkel wrote: »
    Next year is a pivotal year for EV sales, not this year.

    I don't think so. I expected an increase in EV sales (& general car sales overall) with the arrival of the new 201 plates. 191/192 regs are so passé now :cool:.

    The Kona was the first "affordable" BEV to market with a good range. It sold well despite its poor speck & diminutive size. Many existing EV early adopters upgraded immediately, including many with 1st gen Leafs with, by now, tiny ranges. Ioniq 28 owners upgraded regularly too for the extra range.

    Many opted for the Kona because of the tax & company benefits, BIK exemption & fuel savings (free ECars charging & €8 at Ionity for a full charge) etc. Plus it was a great novelty having an EV that could go 450km without recharging.
    Many BEV early adopters now have what they need & prices for BEVs have since shot up. Look at the new Kona - the same car, in effect, for almost €5k more than early last year (I got an OTR price of €35k odd Q4 2018).

    New Ioniq - similar huge jump in price, worse actually :eek:.

    Grants are now being rolled back & will disappear soon enough. Public charging is now expensive (€0.33kWh to €0.79kWh :D).

    Once the initial appetite among Tesla fans is satiated, along with those smart enough to realise a BEV is ideal for them, I think demand will plateaux.
    It may even have already, looking at those January figures.

    People will continue to seek out hybrids, thanks to Toyota marketing, with the smarter bears opting for PHEVs.
    Until & unless people are taxed out of ICE vehicles, which I've no doubt will happen, full BEVs here will remain a small niche in the car market.

    Did anyone see the person on Prime Time who commutes 300km per day (Castlerea to Limerick)? She said an EV wouldn't even get her half way to work (75km)? A young, well educated progressive lady one would assume, completely clueless as to how an eNiro etc. would easily get her to work & back, every day, for a fraction of her diesel cost. Hell, in her case, the eNiro/Kona would literally pay for itself & she'd be helping the environment too.
    Disparaging laughter from the audience too at the thought of an EV & a further dig from Marion too regarding her colleague's "love" for EVs. Again, greeted with laughter from the agreeable audience :rolleyes:.

    I'm not as optimistic as others here who predict a massive upswing in BEV adoption. PHEVs - yes, far more likely in the next five to ten years while BEVs will remain in the low single digits for a long time IMO.

    QED :cool:.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 58,862 CMod ✭✭✭✭ unkel


    It's not so much driven by demand, Kramer. It's the EU emissions norms that the manufacturers will have to comply with. They simply mean quite a large percentage of cars being produced from next year will have to be either BEV or PHEV with a fairly decent range.

    And when VW will bring out decent range Golf size BEV cars for well under 30k, and the public will be more aware of what's what, very few people will want to buy a similar PHEV car for the same price (or more) that has a substantially higher TCO and no benefits over a BEV whatsoever (presuming public fast charging significantly improves this year and next)

    We shall see but I'd say 2021 will see the big change for EV sales in this country. But I could be a year early in my prediction. 2020 unfortunately is not yet the year of the EV over here...

    "Wind is Ireland's oil" - An Taoiseach, 25/05/2022



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 58,862 CMod ✭✭✭✭ unkel


    Kramer wrote: »
    I'm not as optimistic as others here who predict a massive upswing in BEV adoption. PHEVs - yes, far more likely in the next five to ten years while BEVs will remain in the low single digits for a long time IMO.

    So you are basically predicting that BEV sales of cars in Ireland will still be in single digits in 5 years time, say over the full year 2025?

    That's a measurable prediction and I reckon you will be proven very wrong. I'd say it will be at least 30%

    "Wind is Ireland's oil" - An Taoiseach, 25/05/2022



  • Registered Users Posts: 373 ✭✭ PaulRyan97


    Can you provide the hybrid and plug-in hybrid sales as well?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,592 ✭✭✭ RedorDead


    unkel wrote: »
    According to who?

    Next year is a pivotal year for EV sales, not this year.

    According to who? Nearly all vehicle manufacturers in Ireland have said this year will should be a pivotal year for EVs - I am qualified to say this as i work in one of them. By the same token, what are you basing your next year is pivotal claim on?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 247 ✭✭ car_radio19834


    Kramer wrote: »
    Did anyone see the person on Prime Time who commutes 300km per day (Castlerea to Limerick)? She said an EV wouldn't even get her half way to work (75km)? A young, well educated progressive lady one would assume, completely clueless as to how an eNiro etc. would easily get her to work & back, every day, for a fraction of her diesel cost. Hell, in her case, the eNiro/Kona would literally pay for itself & she'd be helping the environment too.
    Disparaging laughter from the audience too at the thought of an EV & a further dig from Marion too regarding her colleague's "love" for EVs. Again, greeted with laughter from the agreeable audience :rolleyes:.



    You have to go and charge the thing every day. You'd nearly have to have the thing charging any time you are at home.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,907 ✭✭✭✭ ELM327


    You have to go and charge the thing every day. You'd nearly have to have the thing charging any time you are at home.
    Just like your phone. And your laptop. And anything else. That's the idea.


    You can charge it fully every night easily. Takes 30 seconds to plug in. Less if like me you have a tethered charger at home.


    Let's take today as an example of why long range EVs are great.
    I drove 70km to work. I didnt charge at home, I'm charging for free at work. I have an appointment later at a clients office 50km away, then a couple of 20km detours, then back 70km to the office, then back home, 70km. That's about 310km or so, I'm not sure what the detours are going to be yet... All for 100% free as I have work charging (except for 4*€0.75 tolls)! If it was at home, it would have cost about €5.

    To do that trip in our prius would cost about €25 in fuel plus double the tolls.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 58,862 CMod ✭✭✭✭ unkel


    RedorDead wrote: »
    According to who? Nearly all vehicle manufacturers in Ireland have said this year will should be a pivotal year for EVs - I am qualified to say this as i work in one of them.

    According to me, for above reasons. Ok if you're so qualified, please give your prediction for 2025 BEV sales as percentages of new cars sold in Ireland. And let there be reckoning on this thread at the end of that year and see who was right.

    "Wind is Ireland's oil" - An Taoiseach, 25/05/2022



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,592 ✭✭✭ RedorDead


    PaulRyan97 wrote: »
    Can you provide the hybrid and plug-in hybrid sales as well?

    Hybrid being dominated by Toyota as its essentially their only fuel source now.

    2ju3fqF.png

    Plug in hybrid still a mixed bag. 3 Series leading the way. Landrover surprisingly strong.

    35WDVdh.png


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,592 ✭✭✭ RedorDead


    unkel wrote: »
    According to me, for above reasons. Ok if you're so qualified, please give your prediction for 2025 BEV sales as percentages of new cars sold in Ireland. And let there be reckoning on this thread at the end of that year and see who was right.

    Well qualify it by saying its your opinion then first. What i mean by my point is of course EV sales in 2021 are going to be higher than in 2020 and this will be the case for each subsequent year from now on. But with emission targets and subsequent Co2 fines and this is the first year in terms of launches and Co2 focus that EVs are this high on the agenda as they've ever been. Its been talked about by all manufacturers i converse with as being a pivotal year - ergo my point. And its also why the 28 day figures dont bear that especially out. Thus my post.

    As for 2025 - if i knew that i would have the lotto numbers for tonight's draw and wouldn't be working here tomorrow :D. Nobody - even the manufacturers, nor the government has a clue. Richard Bruton will not be getting his million cars by 2030 however. Utterly delusional.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,209 ✭✭✭✭ KCross


    RedorDead wrote: »

    As for 2025 - if i knew that i would have the lotto numbers for tonight's draw and wouldn't be working here tomorrow :D. Nobody - even the manufacturers, nor the government has a clue. Richard Bruton will not be getting his million cars by 2030 however. Utterly delusional.

    You’re right on all counts there.

    It’s impossible to predict how the next few years will actually pan out for BEV sales. So many variables anything could happen.

    One thing is for sure is that the manufacturers will control it in the medium term, not the market.

    The easy prediction is that BEV sales will grow but the % is impossible.

    I’d be thinking we’d be very lucky to have 30% BEV sales for the year 2025. Wouldn’t surprise me to see <20% though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,209 ✭✭✭✭ KCross


    RedorDead wrote: »
    Hybrid being dominated by Toyota as its essentially their only fuel source now.

    2ju3fqF.png

    1400 Corollas already!!! That’s a massive seller for them. Their marketing department are genius.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,180 ✭✭✭ jusmeig


    RedorDead wrote: »
    According to who? Nearly all vehicle manufacturers in Ireland have said this year will should be a pivotal year for EVs - I am qualified to say this as i work in one of them. By the same token, what are you basing your next year is pivotal claim on?

    I don't work a major car manufacturer in Ireland, however as a customer I can 100% confirm that until recently BIG auto has been hoping and praying that the latest EV revolution will fail. This is clearly evident from the myriad of compliance cars, and the willingness to pay outrageously high sums to get regulatory credits. This wait it out attitude was seen as the lesser evil to forking out billions in R&D, factory retooling etc.

    Now that EVs are coming out in bigger numbers, it's the consumer that has realised that they are better, and that they want more of them. Why would a betting man say NEXT year and not this year -> I would base that on VW. They have doubled down big time to the tune of billions. 2020 is to the year they launch from compliance into mainstream EVs...but if you look at the guidance for 2020...they are only ramping up and mostly targeting Europe/key markets. The big US autos are only doubling down with cash now (GM), again 2021 before any models launch in volume.

    Model 3 deliveries for Feb/March will greatly inflate them numbers then taper off, but there is no other manufacturer selling an EV at that scale in 2020 that will significantly offset. ID3 towards middle/end of year another blip. In 2021 all the BIG auto companies will have EV models that they want to sell as part of their line-ups, in 2020 they are seem to be ramping up their production. My bet is on 2021...if we are all still here to find out :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,756 ✭✭✭ timsey tiger


    Anybody know what's up with the zoe sales. Have deliveries of the new model started or are people waiting for these?


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 58,862 CMod ✭✭✭✭ unkel


    RedorDead wrote: »
    As for 2025 - if i knew that i would have the lotto numbers for tonight's draw

    That's a cop out! :p

    Of course nobody knows the future, but if one has a strong opinion, one should be brave enough to make a prediction. Like Kramer and I did. What's your predicted percentage pure BEVs in passenger cars for Ireland over 2025?

    "Wind is Ireland's oil" - An Taoiseach, 25/05/2022



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 6,084 Mod ✭✭✭✭ liamog


    Have Leaf 60's hit the market yet?
    In terms of >400km affordable cars, we basically only have the Korean crossovers.
    e-Niro is supply-constrained, the Kona has likely met most of its new model demand, and I'm not sure on the availability of the Soul.

    My prediction is that we'll see a much higher EV percentage on 202 plates than the 201's because of all the new models. I reckon EVs will hit about 5% this year, and 10% next year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,474 ✭✭✭ innrain


    RedorDead wrote: »
    Well qualify it by saying its your opinion then first. What i mean by my point is of course EV sales in 2021 are going to be higher than in 2020 and this will be the case for each subsequent year from now on. But with emission targets and subsequent Co2 fines and this is the first year in terms of launches and Co2 focus that EVs are this high on the agenda as they've ever been. Its been talked about by all manufacturers i converse with as being a pivotal year - ergo my point. And its also why the 28 day figures dont bear that especially out. Thus my post.
    2020 would be a pivotal point on the global market. Ireland lags a bit due to the market size.

    Tesla was very quick in opening the order book in IE after UK - 4 weeks but deliveries took longer 8 -10 weeks first Irish Model3 vs UK first, if I'm not mistaken.

    Corsa e , Polestar2 can be ordered in UK not in Ireland. Seat Mii is under 20k GBP, not available in Ireland. Skoda Citigo e is starting at 17k GBP in UK not available in Ireland. You can place a pre-booking for HondaE in Uk but not in Ireland. Go to Volvo Uk website and click on cars: first model they present is XC40 electric - coming soon. The same exercise Irish website XC40 plug-in hybrid. They will come eventually but not in the first month. The manufactures have this speech with the global market in mind.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,907 ✭✭✭✭ ELM327


    liamog wrote: »
    Have Leaf 60's hit the market yet?
    In terms of >400km affordable cars, we basically only have the Korean crossovers.
    e-Niro is supply-constrained, the Kona has likely met most of its new model demand, and I'm not sure on the availability of the Soul.

    My prediction is that we'll see a much higher EV percentage on 202 plates than the 201's because of all the new models. I reckon EVs will hit about 5% this year, and 10% next year.
    They have but no one really seems to be buying them
    42k for a leaf with 50kW real world charging limitations and no CCS/3phase AC seems really high.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,209 ✭✭✭✭ KCross


    ELM327 wrote: »
    They have but no one really seems to be buying them...

    How do you know?

    How do you differentiate between L40 and L62 in the sales stats?


This discussion has been closed.
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