Concerned about Emirates continuing to fly over Iraq. Is it risky?

mickdw

jamo2oo9 wrote: »

Two civilian aircrafts have been shot down in the last 15 years. In that time period, over 561,000,000 flights have taken place. The odds of being shot down is 0.00000000035%.

You have a better chance of being hit by a lightning, bitten by a shark, dying from fireworks or even winning the lotto...

Thats the odds of being shot down on a random flight anywhere in the world.
The odds of being shot down when deciding to now fly over that area would be many many times greater than you suggest.
If one was to instead take the number of flights flying over the danger area for say the next month multiplied by the possibility of Iran shooting at an aircraft over the same period, you might get a much more scary figure to the point of it being an unnecessary risk.

mightyreds

I had the same concern flew with them Friday over Iraq, we skirted around Iran , wasn't as much as a hiccup on 2 flights and 13 hours airtime, felt safer thinking even Iran wouldn't mess up as badly twice in such a short period.

Kermit.de.frog

roro1990 wrote: »

So what are you saying then? You wouldn't fly with Emirates at cruising altitude because a plane got downed on take off over Iran? Just curious.

I have no concerns at all. I'm just making a comment on the use of stats.

roro1990

mickdw wrote: »

If one was to instead take the number of flights flying over the danger area for say the next month multiplied by the possibility of Iran shooting at an aircraft over the same period, you might get a much more scary figure to the point of it being an unnecessary risk.

To say one might get a much more scary figure is to say that Emirates and other Middle Eastern carriers haven't bothered with this type of analysis already and decided that the figure isn't actually that scary.

I would like to think they have done this analysis, but again, I am just a mere passenger assuming the worst will happen rather than a high level risk assessor at a large airline. Maybe the level of risk assessment isn't as detailed as I'd like to think, but then again, they hopefully know more than the average concerned passenger.

Iran isn't just randomly shooting missiles at planes that pass over neighbouring countries at cruising altitude; the Ukraine Airlines incident happened at a time of high tension near to the capital city of Iran in the immediate aftermath of them sending missiles towards US bases in Iraq. It was a horrible incident, though, that has obviously resonated with a lot of concerned passengers, including myself.

roro1990

Dr. Bre wrote: »

I recently flew from Doha to Dublin. Flew over Iran and close to Baghdad. I was very nervous

Do you personally think your anxiety was justified? Just curious because it feels in some ways like a large portion of my own nervousness about my upcoming flight is just personal high levels of anxiety rather than a concrete risk to my safety.

Then again, the fact that Iraqi airspace is now a no-no for UK, US, Dutch, German, Ukranian, and probably more airliners signals a large direcrepancy in risk assessment between these countries and Middle Eastern carriers.

FFVII

newirishman wrote: »

"Statistics don't apply to the individual"? Not sure what that's supposed to mean to be honest.

People are notoriously bad at assessing risk, and this post is a good example of it.

Accusing Emirates of putting people's lifes at risk for some money is frankly ludicrous. This is one of the most regulated and security aware industries, with a safety record that is second to none.

But as someone else pointed out, it is everyone's personal decision.

You must have forgotten about Boeing already.

Dr. Bre

roro1990 wrote: »

Do you personally think your anxiety was justified? Just curious because it feels in some ways like a large portion of my own nervousness about my upcoming flight is just personal high levels of anxiety rather than a concrete risk to my safety.

Then again, the fact that Iraqi airspace is now a no-no for UK, US, Dutch, German, Ukranian, and probably more airliners signals a large direcrepancy in risk assessment between these countries and Middle Eastern carriers.

I shouldn’t have been anxious cos the chances of another passenger plane being shot down was very slim.

mickdw

roro1990 wrote: »

To say one might get a much more scary figure is to say that Emirates and other Middle Eastern carriers haven't bothered with this type of analysis already and decided that the figure isn't actually that scary.

I would like to think they have done this analysis, but again, I am just a mere passenger assuming the worst will happen rather than a high level risk assessor at a large airline. Maybe the level of risk assessment isn't as detailed as I'd like to think, but then again, they hopefully know more than the average concerned passenger.

Iran isn't just randomly shooting missiles at planes that pass over neighbouring countries at cruising altitude; the Ukraine Airlines incident happened at a time of high tension near to the capital city of Iran in the immediate aftermath of them sending missiles towards US bases in Iraq. It was a horrible incident, though, that has obviously resonated with a lot of concerned passengers, including myself.

I guess some carriers believe that they will not be a targeted as a friendly state or whatever but the risk of shoot down is surely there in general - there can be little debate about that. You then need to consider whether you can trust these nations to not get it wrong and hit an unintended target.... Personally I wouldn't be betting my life on that. An apology is no good after you are shot down.
The fact that multiple airlines see fit to avoid the area is enough for me.

killbillvol2

mickdw wrote: »

I guess some carriers believe that they will not be a targeted as a friendly state or whatever but the risk of shoot down is surely there in general - there can be little debate about that. You then need to consider whether you can trust these nations to not get it wrong and hit an unintended target.... Personally I wouldn't be betting my life on that. An apology is no good after you are shot down.
The fact that multiple airlines see fit to avoid the area is enough for me.

How often do you fly to or through the Middle East?

mickdw

killbillvol2 wrote: »

How often do you fly to or through the Middle East?

Never.

john boye

It's each to their own really. I only took that flight during the week and I didn't even think of it once I was on board. But I would say that if you're going to be fretting about it until you're clear of Iraq then I might advise avoiding the flight if possible as that kind of anxiety in the air surely wouldn't be nice at all.

Victor

mickdw wrote: »

I guess some carriers believe that they will not be a targeted as a friendly state or whateve

Air liner shoot-downs tend not to be deliberate, so being friendly or not doesn't matter.

mickdw

Victor wrote: »

Air liner shoot-downs tend not to be deliberate, so being friendly or not doesn't matter.

Well yes so that further proves that best avoided.

Del2005

Victor wrote: »

Air liner shoot-downs tend not to be deliberate, so being friendly or not doesn't matter.

A western airliner would be a prime target for ISIS or any other terrorist group to shoot down. But they would probably use suicide attacks when cruising or a missile when the plane is taking or landing. There is plenty to buy airside to bring down a plane for a loan wolf, a group would be even easier and no one has a clue how many ISIS people escaped.

Victor

Del2005 wrote: »

A western airliner would be a prime target for ISIS or any other terrorist group to shoot down. But they would probably use suicide attacks when cruising or a missile when the plane is taking or landing. There is plenty to buy airside to bring down a plane for a loan wolf, a group would be even easier and no one has a clue how many ISIS people escaped.

There is no realistic chance of ISIS shooting down anything at cruising altitude.

MadYaker

Is there a reason why the Iraqi army might suddenly start firing missiles at civilian aircraft cruising at 30,000 ft?? Have I missed something? Don’t understand the purpose of this thread. From looking at flightradar it looks like very few flights are avoiding Iraq.

Victor

Over Iraq, the greatest risks would be with the Americans or Iranians firing a long-range SAM at a suspected hostile aircraft or missile. "Small airplane, big sky" works for F16s, but not a few dozen B737s. The threat from Iraq is modest.

Del2005

Victor wrote: »

There is no realistic chance of ISIS shooting down anything at cruising altitude.

I said suicide attack when cruising, which is a much bigger risk for all aircraft flying from any airport than a missile when flying over the middle East.

DubDani

I personally wouldn't have any Issue flying over any of those countries.

Said that, it will probably be affecting Airlines and their decisions. My employer (large US multinational) has prohibited any business travel that goes over Iraq/Iran and some other middle eastern areas. So effectively all travel to Asia and the Middle east has been put on hold for the time being. To currently fly from Dublin to India I would need special approval by our security VP and would then also be limited to a carrier that will have provided written confirmation that their flights are not going over any of the restricted countries. We had several big meetings in India cancelled on short notice for those reasons. And my employer is not an exception, I believe.

Inquitus

DubDani wrote: »

I personally wouldn't have any Issue flying over any of those countries.

Said that, it will probably be affecting Airlines and their decisions. My employer (large US multinational) has prohibited any business travel that goes over Iraq/Iran and some other middle eastern areas. So effectively all travel to Asia and the Middle east has been put on hold for the time being. To currently fly from Dublin to India I would need special approval by our security VP and would then also be limited to a carrier that will have provided written confirmation that their flights are not going over any of the restricted countries. We had several big meetings in India cancelled on short notice for those reasons. And my employer is not an exception, I believe.

You can fly direct to Asia from Heathrow, Schipol and the like without troubling Iran/Iraq, just rules out going via Dubai with a break in the middle.

theguzman

Inquitus wrote: »

You can fly direct to Asia from Heathrow, Schipol and the like without troubling Iran/Iraq, just rules out going via Dubai with a break in the middle.

It's what I usually do, get a window seat, pop a benzo and wake up like 8 hours later 3/4's to Hong Kong or wherever in East or SE Asia. Amsterdam better than Heathrow for transfer anyday.

roro1990

I've chosen to go ahead with the flight, it's tomorrow. Hopefully it'll be fine.

killbillvol2

roro1990 wrote: »

I've chosen to go ahead with the flight, it's tomorrow. Hopefully it'll be fine.

You'll be fine. Emirates have a great entertainment selection so lose yourself in a movie and have a few drinks.

Inquitus

killbillvol2 wrote: »

You'll be fine. Emirates have a great entertainment selection so lose yourself in a movie and have a few drinks.

They aren't shy with the drinks either! and great ICE I flew to Dubai 8-10 times this year with Emirates! Their Frequent flyer program is shít.

Noxegon

Inquitus wrote: »

Their Frequent flyer program is shít.

Eh? Their frequent flyer program is great. I use it to upgrade all the time.

If you want a terrible frequent flyer programme, look at Aer Lingus.

smurfjed

Flying over Saudi Arabia isn't safe either as they have been attacked before and their military is incompetent

What are you talking about ??? They have had attacks by drones, but that has nothing to do with high flying aircraft

Inquitus

Noxegon wrote: »

Eh? Their frequent flyer program is great. I use it to upgrade all the time.

If you want a terrible frequent flyer programme, look at Aer Lingus.

If you fly economy, you get nothing, they changed the program at the start of 2019, I didn't even make it up to the next tier with 10 return economy flights to Dubai.

You only get 450 miles for each leg of Dublin Dubai if you book their cheapest fare, see below:

smurfjed

How often do you fly to or through the Middle East?

About 21 times so far this month.

Creamy Goodness

My company is banning any travel over Iran and Iraq at the moment. Was planning using emirates to go to Thailand for upcoming work but can’t use them, Qatar or Etihad which is a shame as I’m nearly platinum in Emirates/Etihad.

Any other ways to go that has a nice aircraft?

Noxegon

Inquitus wrote: »

If you fly economy, you get nothing, they changed the program at the start of 2019, I didn't even make it up to the next tier with 10 return economy flights to Dubai.

So don’t book special then

Most of my journeys are economy flex.