Election called for Saturday 8 February

Mushy

Calhoun wrote: »

Oh my God anyone see the party political messages tonight , the national party one is fairly bad and manipulative.

Was just laughing at that one

History Queen

Calhoun wrote: »

Oh my God anyone see the party political messages tonight , the national party one is fairly bad and manipulative.

Thought that myself. Only saving grace is that it was so bad that surely no one with a modicum of self-respect would contemplate voting for them

Qrt

Calhoun wrote: »

Oh my God anyone see the party political messages tonight , the national party one is fairly bad and manipulative.

Fairly disturbing really, even my ma was left with her jaw hanging open. Safe to say she’s not a fan.

Gael23

It looks likely that the Dail might get the Veronavirus shortly

Sir Oxman

Harry McGee's final seat prediction in IT today:
Fianna Fáil: 53
Fine Gael: 38
Sinn Féin: 28
Labour Party: 8
Green Party: 14
Social Democrats: 3
Sol-PBP: 2
Others: 14

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/harry-mcgee-s-final-seat-prediction-for-election-2020-1.4139708

Loafing Oaf

Sir Oxman wrote: »

Harry McGee's final seat prediction in IT today:
Fianna Fáil: 53
Fine Gael: 38
Sinn Féin: 28
Labour Party: 8
Green Party: 14
Social Democrats: 3
Sol-PBP: 2
Others: 14

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/harry-mcgee-s-final-seat-prediction-for-election-2020-1.4139708

On those figures Martin's favoured non-FG/SF coalition would probably be viable. I find it hard to imagine the Greens winning so many seats amid the SF surge though.

I can't see the whole article: what government lineup does he predict?

Annabella1

Tipperary vote back on for Saturday

Suspect the ‘soft’ SF vote will be hurt by last nights interview

Water John

That makes LB + SD + Green = 25
FF + Inds = 58

Total 83

Plumbthedepths

Water John wrote: »

That makes LB + SD + Green = 25
FF + Inds = 58

Total 83

Alphabet soup, won't last six months.

Plumbthedepths

Of course FF and FG could drop the pretence and just merge. There is not even a hairs breadth between them. Clear majority, although the problem would be giving SF the label of largest opposition party.

is_that_so

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Alphabet soup, won't last six months.

With a mudguard it would. Most of them are not too far apart. What might cause it to collapse?

Plumbthedepths

is_that_so wrote: »

With a mudguard it would. Most of them are not too far apart.

It really wouldn't, I was being generous with six months. Plus do you really think the state could afford the bs the indo's will look for in exchange for support.

Water John

There is a good list of Inds who have stayed with whomever they have done deals.

is_that_so

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

It really wouldn't, I was being generous with six months. Plus do you really think the state could afford the bs the indo's will look for in exchange for support.

It depends on the Indo and we may be down a Healy Rae. Some of them now have Government experience! None of them are far apart on housing and it will be the biggest issue. I don't really expect the Dail to run a full term but 12 months quite doable.

Loafing Oaf

Water John wrote: »

That makes LB + SD + Green = 25
FF + Inds = 58

Total 83

Which Inds specifically are you (or Harry McGee?) including there? There's 14 of them altogether.

Water John

Depends who gets elected but MHR, Grealish, Lowry, Moran, will all do deals and stay the course.

Plumbthedepths

Water John wrote: »

Depends who gets elected but MHR, Grealish, Lowry, Moran, will all do deals and stay the course.

Grealish is unlikely to be re-elected.

Loafing Oaf

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Of course FF and FG could drop the pretence and just merge. There is not even a hairs breadth between them. Clear majority, although the problem would be giving SF the label of largest opposition party.

Well considering FF are ruling out full coalition, I'd say the old merger is a bit away yet...

Loafing Oaf

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Grealish is unlikely to be re-elected.

3/10 with Paddy Power. Anyway there will be others of a similar (non-)ideological stripe like Naughten and Collins. If FF+Greens+Lab are on those numbers they will be surely be putting some sort of government together...

Plumbthedepths

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Well considering FF are ruling out full coalition, I'd say the old merger is a bit away yet...

Well considering FG has made so much of Brexit only at the half time stage you would assume for the good of the country the two would merge and give the country a stable government. Instead of the mess that will be presented in a few weeks time.

is_that_so

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

3/10 with Paddy Power. Anyway there will be others of a similar (non-)ideological stripe like Naughten and Collins. If FF+Greens+Lab are on those numbers they will be surely be putting some sort of government together...

There's also Ross. He'd love it!

Water John

Collins and McGrath are possibly too committed to social conservatism to be flexible enough to support any Govn't .

ricero

Mary Lou did well there on the virgin media news

Idbatterim

Ffg won’t merge , they’d lose more seats and lower !

is_that_so

Water John wrote: »

Collins and McGrath are possibly too committed to social conservatism to be flexible enough to support any Govn't .

Mattie is just Mattie!

is_that_so

Idbatterim wrote: »

Ffg won’t merge , they’d lose more seats and lower !

Indeed there are reasons why people choose one over the other, even if some people can't see it.

Sir Oxman

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

On those figures Martin's favoured non-FG/SF coalition would probably be viable. I find it hard to imagine the Greens winning so many seats amid the SF surge though.

I can't see the whole article: what government lineup does he predict?

He doesn't predict the govt at all.
the SF surge may be in votes but more than likely will not translate into seats.
Meanwhile the Greens are probably the most transfer friendly of all parties.

Water John

With our voting system the no of TDs elected doesn't stray too far from the % of 1st preferences. There are certain points of benefit and others of short fall within it.

Sir Oxman

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Which Inds specifically are you (or Harry McGee?) including there? There's 14 of them altogether.

INDEPENDENTS/OTHERS

2016: 23 seats
Possible gains
1. Dublin Mid-West (Paul Gogarty): Target is People Before Profit. Gogarty could take the fourth seat on the back of a reasonably good outing in the byelection.
2. Sligo-Leitrim (Marian Harkin): Target is Fianna Fáil. The former MEP and TD has a very big cachet in the constituency and was wooed by Fine Gael. That offer might play a bit against her but she will be a threat to Fianna Fáíl.
3. Wexford (Verona Murphy): Target is Fine Gael. Murphy is as well-known as she is controversial and early in the campaign was seen poised to take a seat at the expense of Paul Kehoe. However, Sinn Féin’s Johnny Mythen might top the poll and that might put paid to her chances.
4. Clare (Michael McNamara): Target is Independent/Fine Gael. There is an outgoing Independent TD, Michael Harty, who is retiring. Clare has a tradition of electing Independents and it might prove lucky for the former Labour Party TD.
5. Waterford (Matt Shanahan): The “hospital candidate” has a very high profile locally and loss of hospital services is always a touchstone issue. Shanahan is in with a chance and will be vying with the Greens and Labour for the final seat.
5. Dublin Bay North (John Lyons): The former People Before Profit councillor has an excellent track record on Dublin City Council and could cause an upset here against one of the three smaller left-leaning parties vying for the final seat.
Potential losses
1. Laois-Offaly (Carol Nolan): Laois and Offaly were two separate three-seat constituencies in 2016. Now, it’s a five-seater and former Sinn Féin TD Carol Nolan could be the obvious loser.
2. Tipperary (Seamus Healy): to Fine Gael. Healy has been a great survivor but a change of mood might see him struggle.
3. Donegal (Thomas Pringle): to Sinn Féin. Pringle has also been a solid vote-getter but Sinn Féin has been working really hard since 2016 to regain a seat.
4. Galway East (Seán Canney): to Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael. Canney is a Minister of State and a hard constituency worker but will find it hard to resist the two bigger parties. His best hope is to stay ahead of their Tuam-based candidates.
5. Dublin South-West (Katherine Zappone): to Greens/Fianna Fáil.Very hard to gauge how the Minister for Children will do. She benefitted from anti-establishment transfers in 2016 but may be able to trade on her performance as Minister with another set of voters.
6. Dublin Rathdown (Shane Ross): to Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil: This is a very fickle constituency and this year’s poll topper is next year’s also-ran. Ross’s star has been waning here and his is under strong pressure from Neale Richmond and (surprisingly) Shay Brennan. However, he seems a little stronger now than at this time last year, having considerably upped his performance as Minister.
7. Galway West (Noel Grealish): to Green Party/Soc Dems/Fianna Fáíl. Grealish has courted controversy with crude anti-immigrant rhetoric and will lose some votes. The TG4 poll did not look good but he has held on before in similar circumstances.
8. Louth (Peter Fitzpatrick): to Fine Gael. It’s hard to know how the Independent TD, formerly of Fine Gael, will do without a party banner. He is the chairman of Louth GAA this year and that is always a boon. But there are some very big hitters among his rivals and it will be difficult for him to survive.

Loafing Oaf

Water John wrote: »

Collins and McGrath are possibly too committed to social conservatism to be flexible enough to support any Govn't .

I'm sure those guys are (Sean) canny enough to know 'social issues' are now a dead duck in Irish politics and any attempt to make 'rolling back the clock' on abortion or anything else a precondition for support for a new government would see them sent away with a flea in their ear...