Property Market 2020

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Interesting to see agents operating what appears as normal and people vieiwng houses in my neighborhood. Thought people would be skipping the viewings due to social distancing etc.

PokeHerKing

GreeBo wrote: »

From a financial point of view, yes.

Well if we had of been taking about financial circumstances maybe your response would have been a little more on the nose. But as we were talking about personal circumstances then my point is still valid, everyone's personal circumstances have changed.

And to flesh out financial circumstances in this climate, mine have not changed from the perspective of wage and bills but they've sure changed as far as leisure spending or lack of it.

Point being everything has a knock on effect and ploughing ahead with a house purchase without giving thought to the current crisis is just madness imo.

IvoryTower

Julissa Bitter Jeep wrote: »

Interesting to see agents operating what appears as normal and people vieiwng houses in my neighborhood. Thought people would be skipping the viewings due to social distancing etc.

couldnt you do a viewing with a bit of common sense?

GreeBo

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Well if we had of been taking about financial circumstances maybe your response would have been a little more on the nose. But as we were talking about personal circumstances then my point is still valid, everyone's personal circumstances have changed.

Well typically when talking about a house purchase its financial circumstances that are relevant...

PokeHerKing wrote: »

And to flesh out financial circumstances in this climate, mine have not changed from the perspective of wage and bills but they've sure changed as far as leisure spending or lack of it.

So then you have more disposable income.

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Point being everything has a knock on effect and ploughing ahead with a house purchase without giving thought to the current crisis is just madness imo.

If you financial circumstances havent changed then I dont know why your house purchase would change, other than trying to time the market (and continue to presumably pay rent instead of a mortgage that you were happy to pay a month ago)

GreeBo

IvoryTower wrote: »

couldnt you do a viewing with a bit of common sense?

Without touching anything or yourself for the duration of the viewing?

Also we have been asked to stay at home other than essential journeys...is a viewing really essential?

SozBbz

IvoryTower wrote: »

couldnt you do a viewing with a bit of common sense?

Define common sense though....

I suppose one way which might be ok if the property is otherwise vacant, but if I were selling my family home where I was still living, I wouldnt want a bunch of strangers traipsing through it right now. You'd have to assume everything was contaminated and fully Detol every hard surface thereafter.

Also, I don't think I'd get the best of potential buyers right now, so if I were a seller (and not desperate) I would hold off until the autumn.

IvoryTower

yes thats true, i was more thinking empty houses, i wouldnt want anyone in my home tbf

Nijmegen

lir6777 wrote: »

Can I ask people's advice on a new build? I put a booking deposit down less than a month ago but am now worried the house will no longer be worth what I agreed to pay. I could back out but this was a situation where I had to queue in the small hours of the night to put my name down and was lucky to get it, so I'm reluctant to just let it go without a good think. I doubt there's much scope to negotiate the price for a big development is there? Or would the eventual valuation from the bank next year be an issue? I really don't want to end up in negative equity, even though I planned in theory to stay put for at least 5 years I don't want to be totally trapped either. Just want to know what my options might be in terms of the price- any thoughts?

As I mentioned in another thread, what is the fundamental thing that is going to change in the economy over the coming months post-Covid lockdown that will drive significant downward pressure on new builds? Particularly where builders are signing contracts now on builds that won't be delivered for months.

If I'm a builder, I'm looking at the number of households that are still urgently awaiting formation and thinking that if the economy swings back in a V shape (eg employees remain attached to employers via generous social welfare payments) or the global downturn makes the old valve of emigration unsuitable, I don't think I'll be accepting a load of lower bids today.

Now yes there is a risk that policymakers misjudge this and the economy is down so far that they need to drop prices significantly, but they're under no pressure to do so right now as by and large in new builds there is a significant backlog of buyers and a lag time on you putting down a deposit and the unit actually completing. Glenveagh have said that their biggest trouble in providing guidance to shareholders this year is their ability to complete, ie that the workforce may be affected by Corona, not that buyers are going to go away.

The 2nd hand market is more likely where you'll see short term fluctuations, eg someone wants to get out of their current property and are being driven by immediate cashflow needs (eg to purchase another house).

PokeHerKing

GreeBo wrote: »

Well typically when talking about a house purchase its financial circumstances that are relevant...


So then you have more disposable income.




If you financial circumstances havent changed then I dont know why your house purchase would change, other than trying to time the market (and continue to presumably pay rent instead of a mortgage that you were happy to pay a month ago)

If you can't see why current events might change ones opinion of purchasing a house we should just agree to disagree.

My "additional disposable" income as you call it will be offset once recession kicks in and taxes increase.

Umaro

See my previous post 1 week ago:

Umaro wrote: »

Viewed a place in late January, I liked it a fair bit and thought the asking price was fair given the market at the time. Bidding eventually went to 30k over asking and I was outbid around 4 weeks ago.

Now the estate agent is contacting me asking if I want to put another bid on otherwise its going sale agreed. There is not a hope that this sale is completing at the current bid given what we're seeing now.

Received a phone call from the EA during the week. As expected the top bidder had pulled out and the vendor had instructed the EA to ring around all the under-bidders.

I had actually withdrawn my previous bid on this and still got called. I might check in with them this day next week to see whats happened and keep you all entertained.

handlemaster

Heard of a property that was sale agreed for just over 300k.. buyer came back and reduced the offer by 40 k and it was accepted. Prices are only going to go down. Its just the percentage drop that is the question.

Empty_Space

handlemaster wrote: »

Heard of a property that was sale agreed for just over 300k.. buyer came back and reduced the offer by 40 k and it was accepted. Prices are only going to go down. Its just the percentage drop that is the question.

Im conflicted, I want prices to plummet because it will my favour me as a buyer.

But I know people who bought recently and would hate to see them suffer.

Mic 1972

Just checking the prices changes on MyHome, lots of up arrows
They are playing a strange game, trying to create the illusion that offering less than asking price can be a bargain when in fact you are offering what a week ago was the actual asking price

Empty_Space

Empty_Space wrote: »

Im conflicted, I want prices to plummet because it will my favour me as a buyer.

But I know people who bought recently and would hate to see them suffer.

Why would they suffer?
Surely if they bought recently then they're not going to sell anytime soon.
So long as they keep their jobs I'm sure they will be grand.
The value of the house won't really affect them if they are living in it.

Dolbhad

lir6777 wrote: »

Can I ask people's advice on a new build? I put a booking deposit down less than a month ago but am now worried the house will no longer be worth what I agreed to pay. I could back out but this was a situation where I had to queue in the small hours of the night to put my name down and was lucky to get it, so I'm reluctant to just let it go without a good think. I doubt there's much scope to negotiate the price for a big development is there? Or would the eventual valuation from the bank next year be an issue? I really don't want to end up in negative equity, even though I planned in theory to stay put for at least 5 years I don't want to be totally trapped either. Just want to know what my options might be in terms of the price- any thoughts?

I would weigh up the location of the property - is it in a good location that would always have a demand, the mortgage payments, when will it be complete -and the LTV and if you are renting at moment.

I don’t think new builds have scope for reductions due to HTB and also if new builds don’t sell, builder will sit on the land and houses until they do go up in price.

We don’t know what’s going to happen. Prices may drop badly for a few months but if the build is a year away, it may go up by then. Remember your solicitor more than likely will have a loan clause in there in case you lose your job and it will deal with if the house loses valuation.

Mad_maxx

landofthetree wrote: »

It's over 10% after only a couple of weeks of the crisis

A bomb was dropped on the economy , people reprice quickly , everything we knew a month ago no longer applies

JamesMason

Knex. wrote: »

I find that very hard to believe.

Me too.

Empty_Space

bubblypop wrote: »

Why would they suffer?
Surely if they bought recently then they're not going to sell anytime soon.
So long as they keep their jobs I'm sure they will be grand.
The value of the house won't really affect them if they are living in it.

Maybe their wage will fall while they are still paying a high mortgage.

Use your head.

FernandoTorres

The price of a property is determined by what people can afford and are willing to pay for it. Prior to the virus we lived in a world of near full employment, good growth, easy credit and booming stock markets. Property prices were rising steadily and there was definitely a lot of FOMO in the market with people accepting that they needed to pay a bit extra now to get on the ladder.
If you think that once the virus burns out, everything goes back to like it was above then yes of course property prices would not have significant falls. I’m not saying that’s impossible but I’d assign a very low probability due to the following amongst plenty of other reasons:

• A large number of businesses were hanging by a thread before this issue. This will finish them off and they will not come back, nor will the jobs. Other businesses that do survive will not hire back everyone they lost and I certainly can’t see many growth projects going ahead. Unemployment will rise and so will the strain on the people who remain in work to fund them.

• There are a huge amount of highly leveraged people out there who’ve borrowed to purchase houses, cars, shares etc. This has given them a massive shock and I can’t see them going back to their previous ways any time soon.

• The hundreds of billions in bailout and support packages have to be paid from somewhere. This has to have an effect on global growth and as a country hugely reliant on FDI, Ireland is very exposed. Trump has already been talking about bringing the big US pharmaceutical companies home. I’d also expect immigration into Ireland to reduce which will bring down demand on property.

That’s a long way of saying we’re at the end of a long term global economic cycle and when cycles end there is a downturn, and property prices are rarely immune. The virus was just the spark.
I don’t see prices plummeting too quickly as people who wanted to sell will hang on in the hope things will improve and buyers will be waiting for bigger falls. Eventually people’s hands will be forced and there’ll be a downturn over a couple of years in my opinion.

Empty_Space

Empty_Space wrote: »

Maybe their wage will fall while they are still paying a high mortgage.

Use your head.

Nothing to do with the value of the house though.
Like I said, if they keep their job, & fair enough, or don't get cut too much wages, then the value of the house doesn't matter.
I presume the mortgage is not too high now.
If you can afford the mortgage, then it won't affect them.

voluntary

bubblypop wrote: »

Nothing to do with the value of the house though.
Like I said, if they keep their job, & fair enough, or don't get cut too much wages, then the value of the house doesn't matter.
I presume the mortgage is not too high now.
If you can afford the mortgage, then it won't affect them.

Do you want to buy my place for 150% of the current value maybe? It shouldn't be a problem for you as it won't affect you assuming you can afford the mortgage

voluntary

voluntary wrote: »

Do you want to buy my place for 150% of the current value maybe? It shouldn't be a problem for you as it won't affect you assuming you can afford the mortgage

You're missing my point.
The poster worried that house prices falling would affect their friends who had recently bought.
It wouldn't.
If a recession is bad & they lose jobs /money, then that if course would affect them, same as everyone else.
The value of their house falling however, would not affect them.

bubblypop

bubblypop wrote: »

......
The value of their house falling however, would not affect them.

LTV can effect folk.
I was on a high variable rate & in negative equity for years.
It's also not fun knowing you can buy a few doors down for less then what you paid for your own place a few years previously. Folk can be affected in many ways.

Now 15 years in covid19 hasn't put me in negative equity as I've not much to go on the mortgage but it's definitely taken value off my property..... That's still an effect.

voluntary

bubblypop wrote: »

You're missing my point.
The poster worried that house prices falling would affect their friends who had recently bought.
It wouldn't.
If a recession is bad & they lose jobs /money, then that if course would affect them, same as everyone else.
The value of their house falling however, would not affect them.

Their lives would be worse than if they would have bought cheaper. They'd have higher monthly expenses (if mortgage taken) they won't have capital accumulated when moving home, retiring, or whatever. How's that not affecting them?

20% cheaper house may mean 300 euros less monthly repayments on mortgage for many, many years. 300 euro more in the pocket every month is quite significant for majority of regular people.

lawred2

bubblypop wrote: »

You're missing my point.
The poster worried that house prices falling would affect their friends who had recently bought.
It wouldn't.
If a recession is bad & they lose jobs /money, then that if course would affect them, same as everyone else.
The value of their house falling however, would not affect them.

LTV of course affects people. Negative equity makes it near impossible to remortgage and if you were lucky enough to get approved, it will be very expensive borrowing.

So yes, it does affect people.

It also affects people mentally whether it's rational or not. People feel poorer.

GreeBo

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Everything we knew a month ago no longer applies

User name checks out.

Graham

voluntary wrote: »

Their lives would be worse than if they would have bought cheaper. They'd have higher monthly expenses (if mortgage taken) they won't have capital accumulated when moving home, retiring, or whatever. How's that not affecting them?

All of those things apply to first time buyers that put off buying for a few years.

Augeo

Augeo wrote: »

It's also not fun knowing you can buy a few doors down for less then what you paid for your own place a few years previously.

I think this is what affects people mostly. Which is just in their own head

lawred2

bubblypop wrote: »

I think this is what affects people mostly. Which is just in their own head

Out you go and splash the cash then...

I presume since you're confident that buying before a dip has no real tangible effects... Then I presume you're happy to go balls out in to the market right now!?

Or are you waiting for further drops?

Why would you be doing that?

It's just in your head you know?

ebayissues

Right now I'd take 10% drop in any property I was looking at a few month ago. A couple of days ago, I revised my offer on a property down by 10%. Agent sent an angry response but couldnt give a toss.


The corrwlation between stock markets and house prces historically is lless than 50%, I dont think house prices will fall by 20%, it could be more but I'd say at a minimum a 10% will occur, not now but 3 - 6 months time.



There are alot of factors at play, so nobody can say how much of a drop will happen and when.