Property Market 2020

Ozark707

GreeBo wrote: »

The question is for how long.

In the last recession there was a prevalent mindset at the outset that 'Irish property does not go down in value', so in effect it was a death by a thousand cuts. Lots of people followed the market down and ended up selling at a very low price instead of cutting their price earlier and possibly then exiting the market. This time around no one in the right mind believes it is not possible for huge drops in property prices so if there are eager sellers they might try and get ahead of the curve. If this is the case then I don't expect whatever correction will come to take as long.

Bass Reeves

Ozark707 wrote: »

In the last recession there was a prevalent mindset at the outset that 'Irish property does not go down in value', so in effect it was a death by a thousand cuts. Lots of people followed the market down and ended up selling at a very low price instead of cutting their price earlier and possibly then exiting the market. This time around no one in the right mind believes it is not possible for huge drops in property prices so if there are eager sellers they might try and get ahead of the curve. If this is the case then I don't expect whatever correction will come to take as long.

What would the make up of eager sellers be

Graham

GreeBo wrote: »

The Government is paying 4.5m over just 12 weeks to people who can't work from home.
More than 600,000 people out of the 2.3m workforce

If you think the rest can or will all continue to work from home I think you are badly mistaken.

Companies are extending the work from home because it's not yet safe to return to a office and the logistics and cost of making it safe aren't worth it

Nobody is suggesting the entire country is about to start working from home on a permanent basis.

However, there is a likelihood that it will be a serious consideration for SOME companies for at least SOME of their staff.

That's not the same as saying it will suit everyone/every company. That's not the same as saying rural living is 'better' than living in Dublin.

ted1

Graham wrote: »

Nobody is suggesting the entire country is about to start working from home on a permanent basis.

However, there is a likelihood that it will be a serious consideration for SOME companies for at least SOME of their staff.

That's not the same as saying it will suit everyone/every company. That's not the same as saying rural living is 'better' than living in Dublin.

Our place have said they don’t want more than 20% back in the office till at least Christmas and will be looking at allowing people from home on a more permanent basis. They’ll assess how each got on

Graham

I'd be surprised if we didn't hear that a lot more often ted1.

I don't think the question is if it will happen. The more realistic question is; on what scale will it happen.

smurgen

Graham wrote: »

I'd be surprised if we didn't hear that a lot more often ted1.

I don't think the question is if it will happen. The more realistic question is; on what scale will it happen.

It's the solution to a hell of a lot of problems we are facing as a country and I think it could see a boost for more smaller urban and rural areas if it was taken up on a large scale.

Experience_day

People are steadily ignoring two words: automation & outsourcing.

I know for a fact that out company in financial services will be considering outsourcing. And I'm leading a project on automation myself..

The idea people will be paid ludicrous Irish wages long term by multinationals if they can move specific parts of replaceable labour elsewhere....is hopeful at best.

Experience_day

People are steadily ignoring two words: automation & outsourcing.

I know for a fact that out company in financial services will be considering outsourcing. And I'm leading a project on automation myself..

The idea people will be paid ludicrous Irish wages long term by multinationals if they can move specific parts of replaceable labour elsewhere....is hopeful at best.

Ozark707

Bass Reeves wrote: »

What would the make up of eager sellers be

Possibly someone who wants to downsize, a trader upper who needs to offload their existing property to be able to buy the target one, someone who is relocating either internally or externally, probate sale, sale due to relationship breakdown....that is just off the top of my head.

Bass Reeves

Ozark707 wrote: »

Possibly someone who wants to downsize, a trader upper who needs to offload their existing property to be able to buy the target one, someone who is relocating either internally or externally, probate sale, sale due to relationship breakdown....that is just off the top of my head.

They are all normal sales. They either happen or do not, none of the above decide to sell the still they act. Probate, relationship breakdown relocation happen. You hardly decide to break up with your husband or wife because it a better time to sell now than in 12 months time.

Upsizing and down sizing can just as often be put on the long finger if the market is unstable.

As the teacher would note on a school book "try harder next time"

Donald Trump

Experience_day wrote: »

People are steadily ignoring two words: automation & outsourcing.

I know for a fact that out company in financial services will be considering outsourcing. And I'm leading a project on automation myself..

The idea people will be paid ludicrous Irish wages long term by multinationals if they can move specific parts of replaceable labour elsewhere....is hopeful at best.

You can outsource to India, but you generally don't get the same efficiency or level of service as having it in-house. That is well recognized. (It is not a comment on Indians before anyone gets their knickers in a twist. It is a comment on the model of service provision.). Offshore teams have a place in providing 24-hour business continuity, but going fully offshore for any service is generally not 100% without drawbacks.

Experience_day

Donald Trump wrote: »

You can outsource to India, but you generally don't get the same efficiency or level of service as having it in-house. That is well recognized. (It is not a comment on Indians before anyone gets their knickers in a twist. It is a comment on the model of service provision.). Offshore teams have a place in providing 24-hour business continuity, but going fully offshore for any service is generally not 100% without drawbacks.

Lots of places have already moved on from India. In fact Merrill Lynch actually onboarded some stuff back apparently haha.

However Poland is a lot more attractive and the likes of credit Suisse, BBH, Citibank etc have been quite successful with their efforts. Infact fidelity have just moved a major function out recently as well..

Experience_day

Donald Trump wrote: »

You can outsource to India, but you generally don't get the same efficiency or level of service as having it in-house. That is well recognized. (It is not a comment on Indians before anyone gets their knickers in a twist. It is a comment on the model of service provision.). Offshore teams have a place in providing 24-hour business continuity, but going fully offshore for any service is generally not 100% without drawbacks.

Also forgot to quantify the moves we are seeing is in systems/work flow improvements in predominantly back office functions allowing for standardization of work which is then ripe for being able to offload.

eagle eye

Experience_day wrote:

Also forgot to quantify the moves we are seeing is in systems/work flow improvements in predominantly back office functions allowing for standardization of work which is then ripe for being able to offload.

Well get to the stage soon enough where companies like this are highlighted and shunned.

Ozark707

Bass Reeves wrote: »

They are all normal sales. They either happen or do not, none of the above decide to sell the still they act. Probate, relationship breakdown relocation happen. You hardly decide to break up with your husband or wife because it a better time to sell now than in 12 months time.

Upsizing and down sizing can just as often be put on the long finger if the market is unstable.

As the teacher would note on a school book "try harder next time"

Phew that is good to know. Normal sales can carry on as business as usual so.

combat14

Looks like more property /inheritance taxes in the pipeline..

Reality bites: Watchdog warns on tax hikes and pension age as recession kicks in

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/news/reality-bites-watchdog-warns-on-tax-hikes-and-pension-age-as-recession-kicks-in-39194085.html

Snow Garden

eagle eye wrote: »

Well get to the stage soon enough where companies like this are highlighted and shunned.

How does one shun a large multinational and what are the impacts of this shunning? Money talks and walks.

I too think that Ireland has reached it's peak in terms of foreign multinational jobs and salaries. Work is become so mobile now and the English language is becoming so widespread. The FDI policy in Ireland and the corporate tax rate will come under extreme pressure now.

Many companies will have no choice but to allow WFH on a permanent basis. Those who can work from home will be required to do so for months to come. They are saying for the rest of the year but as with every deadline so far this is managing expectations and will be extended until there is a vaccine. Many companies will not be able to meet the safety restrictions without a WFH policy.

So this is a permanent fixture for many companies. There simply is no way back from this after a year or more of successful WFH policies there is no way a company can turn around and order everyone back into the office for the old 9-5.30 grind.

I for one am very excited at the prospect of being able to move out to the countryside. To have the country lifestyle without having to suffer the long daily commute to Dublin.

I believe another change we are going to see is an uptake in shared office space (once we have a vaccine obciously). Decentralised meet ups where staff can get together for meetings or just for no particular reason at all other than to meet up in a work environment.

smurgen

I think alot of the EA and property investors here are banking on a V share recovery also. Can't say I'm that optimistic in the face of a no vaccine environment. I hope people have a good stomach for risk and terrible numbers.

Snow Garden

Donald Trump wrote: »

You can outsource to India, but you generally don't get the same efficiency or level of service as having it in-house. That is well recognized. (It is not a comment on Indians before anyone gets their knickers in a twist. It is a comment on the model of service provision.). Offshore teams have a place in providing 24-hour business continuity, but going fully offshore for any service is generally not 100% without drawbacks.

India is an interesting one. I believe India produces 1,000,000 IT graduates a year but the quality of those degrees is extremely varied. Every Indian family pushes their kids into IT whether they are suitable or not. The fact is that an Indian services company can provide 7/8 graduates at the same cost of an experienced IT resource in Ireland. All you need is 2 of those graduates to be productive and you're getting more bang for your buck. The other 5/6 graduates could be utterly useless but the hope is that the 2 bright sparks will help them add some value until they get more experienced. I understand the quality of Indian IT resources has improved in the past 5 years, albeit from a low base.

Snow Garden

smurgen wrote: »

I think alot of the EA and property investors here are banking on a V share recovery also. Can't say I'm that optimistic in the face of a no vaccine environment. I hope people have a good stomach for risk and terrible numbers.

I don't think anyone expects a V shaped recovery anymore. Zero hope of that. That was just wishful thinking.

V Shaped Recovery = 2008 'Soft Landing'

addaword

combat14 wrote: »

Looks like more property /inheritance taxes in the pipeline..

Reality bites: Watchdog warns on tax hikes and pension age as recession kicks in

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/news/reality-bites-watchdog-warns-on-tax-hikes-and-pension-age-as-recession-kicks-in-39194085.html

It also mentions spending cuts. Many people think it is inevitable public sector salaries and pensions will be cut, to bring them more back in to line with Europe. That will affect the property market too.

JJJackal

Snow Garden wrote: »

I don't think anyone expects a V shaped recovery anymore. Zero hope of that. That was just wishful thinking.

V Shaped Recovery = 2008 'Soft Landing'

I dont think anyone can know; all speculation. If an effective vaccine appeared tomorrow (there are trials ongoing) - happy days. That would be mass produced in a few months,

If the virus died out for some reason...

Either way I think post severe COVID there will be some type of recovery that will initially be v shaped - doubt we will get back to the pre COVID levels

Snow Garden

JJJackal wrote: »

I dont think anyone can know; all speculation. If an effective vaccine appeared tomorrow (there are trials ongoing) - happy days. That would be mass produced in a few months,

If the virus died out for some reason...

Either way I think post severe COVID there will be some type of recovery that will initially be v shaped - doubt we will get back to the pre COVID levels

But it's extreme speculation to suggest a V shaped recovery. Extremely low probability. Miracle stuff.

The most likely scenario is an L shaped recovery - a lengthy depression.

For example, ask any restaurant owner, café owner, hotelier whether etc he/she expects a V shaped recovery given (a) We got 11,000,000 tourists in 2019 (b) Social distancing will be enforced until vaccine fully distributed (c) There will be a lot less disposable income due to unemployment, global downturn etc. (d) Many office workers will be working and eating lunch at home

Experience_day

Snow Garden wrote: »

India is an interesting one. I believe India produces 1,000,000 IT graduates a year but the quality of those degrees is extremely varied. Every Indian family pushes their kids into IT whether they are suitable or not. The fact is that an Indian services company can provide 7/8 graduates at the same cost of an experienced IT resource in Ireland. All you need is 2 of those graduates to be productive and you're getting more bang for your buck. The other 5/6 graduates could be utterly useless but the hope is that the 2 bright sparks will help them add some value until they get more experienced. I understand the quality of Indian IT resources has improved in the past 5 years, albeit from a low base.

The problem is when you're talking about financial services either in retail (natwest disastrous it issue) or street banking (investment banking etc), the costs of something going wrong is punitively high. I know personally of a case where several million was lost in a day because of the Indian culture preventing something being easily mitigated. However there are a lot more places coming online without the same problems. That's what makes it all the more powerful and dangerous for Ireland.

Experience_day

eagle eye wrote: »

Well get to the stage soon enough where companies like this are highlighted and shunned.

You're going to shun an American firm that outsourced its operations to Ireland and then again to somewhere else? Lots barely even sell anything in Ireland, and the ones that do won't give a sh1te.

Snow Garden

Experience_day wrote: »

The problem is when you're talking about financial services either in retail (natwest disastrous it issue) or street banking (investment banking etc), the costs of something going wrong is punitively high. I know personally of a case where several million was lost in a day because of the Indian culture preventing something being easily mitigated. However there are a lot more places coming online without the same problems. That's what makes it all the more powerful and dangerous for Ireland.

I hear you. But that cultural issue of hiding problems can be overcome. Investments in automated testing can help. Western culture can also be a problem sometimes - look how one man's ego brought down Barings Bank

smurgen

Snow Garden wrote: »

But it's extreme speculation to suggest a V shaped recovery. Extremely low probability. Miracle stuff.

The most likely scenario is an L shaped recovery - a lengthy depression.

For example, ask any restaurant owner, café owner, hotelier whether etc he/she expects a V shaped recovery given (a) We got 11,000,000 tourists in 2019 (b) Social distancing will be enforced (c) There will be a lot less disposable income due to unemployment, global downturn etc. (d) Many office workers will be working and eating lunch at home

I'm thinking possibly a W shaped where outbreaks happen and we have to go into lockdown again. Read an article this morning about a south Korean man who infected 40 people and the authorities are trying to trace 2000 that were in the same pubs and clubs as him. Can only imagine if this stuff happening on a mass scale.

smurgen

JJJackal wrote: »

I dont think anyone can know; all speculation. If an effective vaccine appeared tomorrow (there are trials ongoing) - happy days. That would be mass produced in a few months,

If the virus died out for some reason...

Either way I think post severe COVID there will be some type of recovery that will initially be v shaped - doubt we will get back to the pre COVID levels

Sounds like trump's "it will dissapear like a miracle" spiel.

eagle eye

Experience_day wrote:

You're going to shun an American firm that outsourced its operations to Ireland and then again to somewhere else? Lots barely even sell anything in Ireland, and the ones that do won't give a sh1te.

Obviously you have reading comprehension difficulties. Inl didn't say I was going to do anything, I just predicted what might happen in the future.