Property Market 2020

combat14

ittakestwo wrote: »

Or Ireland loses corporation tax advantage and it never recovers.

We were a second world country in the 80's before the corporation tax advantage, then we become one of the richest country's because of one tax incentive. What else do we have to justify being one of the richest countries in the world?

Ever watch the film Trading Places, I often think that is what the world is doing to Ireland, just they have not pulled the plug yet... easy come easy go. I certainly would not be taking out a 90% mortgage for 20+ years on the pretenses we will always have this wealth.

I wouldn't even call it wealth .. more like temporary money in...

European FDI dropped here by €155 Billion last year alone

The Belly

As it stands we are a one trick pony. If MNC's leave or have too we either change fast or it is back to the 80's

Graham

ittakestwo wrote: »

What else do we have to justify being one of the richest countries in the world?

Language, geography and education might be considered advantageous but we're probably getting off-topic.

eagle eye

fliball123 wrote:

Well a few reasons the market is in a state of stalemate people are finding hard to buy and sell at the moment and property always takes time to be impacted as at a push it takes at least 3 months to buy/sell a property and a lot can happen in 3 months.

The biggest hit will come at the end of the third quarter from what I've been told, that's if things haven't picked up by then. There'll be a hit at the end of the second quarter which is early July too.

PokeHerKing

GreeBo wrote: »

The real question isnt will prices fall or even how far will they fall, its how long to recover.

All things considered, ignoring obvious outliers, house prices will always rise over time due to demand outstripping supply.
If you are going to buy you need to decide for yourself how much it will cost to keep renting, the value you put on owning a home rather than renting and the opportunity you are faced with (assuming you have a property in mind)
If you are selling its similar enough, if you are in no rush to sell then arguably do nothing. If you are in a rush then ask yourself how long do you think it will be before prices are back where they are/were. what will it cost you to wait that long. What are the prices of your next property going to do and whats the net gain/loss in the difference.

Unless you are buying a gasworks apartment for 2M or a 1 bed apartment in Ticknock for 800K then chances are in a couple of years prices will be right back where they were when you bought. Arguably you shouldnt be buying any property that you think will not rise in value. If you are going to buy it anyway and dont care about an increase in value, then you should just uy it anyway and not worry about prices going up or down.

TL;DR
Buy now, the ladder only goes one way long term.

You've just taken a load of hindsight points from our not so distant property crash, twist them to suit your own narrative and are trying to pass it off as some prophetic wisdom.

Hubertj

The Belly wrote: »

As it stands we are a one trick pony. If MNC's leave or have too we either change fast or it is back to the 80's

That’s an incorrect statement. Definitely true for some MNCs but a large number are based in Ireland for a number of reasons - education, language, skills/expertise, culture.

The Belly

Hubertj wrote: »

That’s an incorrect statement. Definitely true for some MNCs but a large number are based in Ireland for a number of reasons - education, language, skills/expertise, culture.

Access to EU markets etc i agree but if the rules are changed which wont be made here then that could decide it.

ittakestwo

Hubertj wrote: »

That’s an incorrect statement. Definitely true for some MNCs but a large number are based in Ireland for a number of reasons - education, language, skills/expertise, culture.

What a coincidence they are in the ROI with its 13% corporation tax and not Northan Ireland or Wales which dont.

fliball123

ittakestwo wrote: »

What a coincidence they are in the ROI with its 13% corporation tax and not Northan Ireland or Wales which dont.

Northern Ireland and Wales are in the process of leaving the EU

fliball123

eagle eye wrote: »

The biggest hit will come at the end of the third quarter from what I've been told, that's if things haven't picked up by then. There'll be a hit at the end of the second quarter which is early July too.

Where are you getting you info from, not saying your right or wrong just wondering what your source is?

The Belly

If we are at the start of the end of globalization then regardless of the many talents as a country we can offer we will see a lot of companies fold up their tent.

ittakestwo

fliball123 wrote: »

Northern Ireland and Wales are in the process of leaving the EU

But they never went to those places, even long before brexit.

There is denial if people think MNC's would be here if we didn't have a 13% corporation tax.

Hubertj

The Belly wrote: »

Access to EU markets etc i agree but if the rules are changed which wont be made here then that could decide it.

There are plenty more reasons but reckon this isn’t the forum to debate it so we agree to disagree.

hometruths

eagle eye wrote: »

The biggest hit will come at the end of the third quarter from what I've been told, that's if things haven't picked up by then. There'll be a hit at the end of the second quarter which is early July too.

When you say 'hit', do you mean in terms of transactions, prices or what?

The Belly

Hubertj wrote: »

There are plenty more reasons but reckon this isn’t the forum to debate it so we agree to disagree.

Agreed

Hubertj

ittakestwo wrote: »

But they never went to those places, even long before brexit.

There is denial if people think MNC's would be here if we didn't have a 13% corporation tax.

Some wouldn’t be but many would be. You’re making sweeping generalisations.

Empty_Space

This thread is hilarious.

These wise heads telling people to buy now if they can afford 😂. It boggles the mind.

Don't listen to these people. PROPERTY IS FALLING and will fall far and quick once it really starts. You would be MAD to buy in the midst of this financial crisis.

The Belly

Empty_Space wrote: »

This thread is hilarious.

These wise heads telling people to buy now if they can afford ��. It boggles the mind.

Don't listen to these people. PROPERTY IS FALLING and will fall far and quick once it really starts. You would be MAD to buy in the midst of this financial crisis.

the issue is nobody knows past experiences arent relevant now. Best thing is to wait let the cards fall and see then.

TheSheriff

Gav19801 wrote: »

Just wondering if anyone has any advice on dealing with EAs.
Can you ask for evidence that another bidder is real and is not being fabricated to Jack up the price?

There's zero visibility in the buying process that makes it super difficult

The only advice is not to believe a single word they tell you.

Not a single word.

I remember once my girlfriend asking an EA what what was the garden aspect as it wasn't on the brochure (we were standing in the kitchen at the time, looking at the garden) - he responded that it was "West, evening sun, imagine sitting here in July after a BBQ".

The compass on my phone said true north; I called him on it, he told me it was north west, but mostly west, less north.

The garden faces north. The house is still not sold.

Just assume everything they tell you is a lie; it likely is.

GreeBo

schmittel wrote: »

tell that to people who bought in 2007!

The Irish house price index is still rising up towards the 2007 high.

ittakestwo wrote: »

Or Ireland loses corporation tax advantage and it never recovers.

Or prices keep rising and the people you encourage not to buy are still stuck renting.

PokeHerKing wrote: »

You've just taken a load of hindsight points from our not so distant property crash, twist them to suit your own narrative and are trying to pass it off as some prophetic wisdom.

No, I'm taking the facts that by far, by and large, when taking a longterm view (which is what buying a house should be) prices go up.
What did I twist? What hindsight did I use?
If the fact that typically property increases in value over time is hindsight then sure, I used hindsight.





If your focus is too narrow you will either just see a boom or a bust, but if you widen your focus you can see the longterm trend, it is, just like the stock market, up.
Note that again, just like the stock market, that doesnt mean that every house or every stock will increase in value, but overall they do.

The Belly

GreeBo wrote: »

The Irish house price index is still rising up towards the 2007 high.


Or prices keep rising and the people you encourage not to buy are still stuck renting.



No, I'm taking the facts that by far, by and large, when taking a longterm view (which is what buying a house should be) prices go up.
What did I twist? What hindsight did I use?
If the fact that typically property increases in value over time is hindsight then sure, I used hindsight.





If your focus is too narrow you will either just see a boom or a bust, but if you widen your focus you can see the longterm trend, it is, just like the stock market, up.
Note that again, just like the stock market, that doesnt mean that every house or every stock will increase in value, but overall they do.

yes but your not factoring in the current situation there is no precedent for it.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Empty_Space wrote: »

This thread is hilarious.

These wise heads telling people to buy now if they can afford 😂. It boggles the mind.

Don't listen to these people. PROPERTY IS FALLING and will fall far and quick once it really starts. You would be MAD to buy in the midst of this financial crisis.

Yeah because one size fits all. Maybe some people won't get approval in a few years. You can wait 20 years for a perfect time to buy or just actually buy and get on with your life in an area you like.

GreeBo

The Belly wrote: »

yes but your not factoring in the current situation there is no precedent for it.

Everyone says that about everything though. The irony here is that we have people laughing at others for saying that this recession will be different than the last one. Yet you are doing *exactly* that yourself. We recovered from the last one, we will recover from this one.

How many depressions or "this has never happened before, it will never recover!" has the stock market been through?

Depressions, great depressions, .com boom to bust, 9/11, covid19
They always bounce back, this time wont be any different, unless you think people are going to fundamentally change how they have behaved.

jimbobaloobob

TheSheriff wrote: »

The only advice is not to believe a single word they tell you.

Not a single word.

I remember once my girlfriend asking an EA what what was the garden aspect as it wasn't on the brochure (we were standing in the kitchen at the time, looking at the garden) - he responded that it was "West, evening sun, imagine sitting here in July after a BBQ".

The compass on my phone said true north; I called him on it, he told me it was north west, but mostly west, less north.

The garden faces north. The house is still not sold.

Just assume everything they tell you is a lie; it likely is.

He might have studied Hamlet. “ I am but mad north-north-west. When the wind is southerly, I know a hawk from a handsaw.”

hometruths

GreeBo wrote: »

If your focus is too narrow you will either just see a boom or a bust, but if you widen your focus you can see the longterm trend, it is, just like the stock market, up.
Note that again, just like the stock market, that doesnt mean that every house or every stock will increase in value, but overall they do.

If your focus is too narrow you'll just end up seeing what you want to see.

Given that the highs in 19 are lower than the highs in 07 that chart is showing a downward trend.

And the FTSE 100 today is at the same level it was in 1998.

GreeBo

schmittel wrote: »

If your focus is too narrow you'll just end up seeing what you want to see.

Given that the highs in 19 are lower than the highs in 07 that chart is showing a downward trend.

And the FTSE 100 today is at the same level it was in 1998.

So you believe that long term Irish house prices are going to get cheaper then?

PommieBast

Gav19801 wrote: »

But for all I know the EA has made up the other buyer just to see how high I will go. What proof could you ask for that the other bidder even exists? The whole system is so poor

The way the Irish property market operates is basically unprofessional. It needs the sort of clamp-down the UK did back in the late-1990s.

GreeBo

PommieBast wrote: »

The way the Irish property market operates is basically unprofessional. It needs the sort of clamp-down the UK did back in the late-1990s.

Should go like Scotland, everyone submits their max bid and the highest takes it.
That way you pay what you value the house to be worth to you and nothing more.

PokeHerKing

GreeBo wrote: »

The Irish house price index is still rising up towards the 2007 high.


Or prices keep rising and the people you encourage not to buy are still stuck renting.



No, I'm taking the facts that by far, by and large, when taking a longterm view (which is what buying a house should be) prices go up.
What did I twist? What hindsight did I use?
If the fact that typically property increases in value over time is hindsight then sure, I used hindsight.





If your focus is too narrow you will either just see a boom or a bust, but if you widen your focus you can see the longterm trend, it is, just like the stock market, up.
Note that again, just like the stock market, that doesnt mean that every house or every stock will increase in value, but overall they do.

Hold the phone, you mean if I zoom out the crash won't look so bad?? Who cares what the trend of 10-100 years looks like, if I buy today and prices fall off a cliff for a decade I'll consider that a bad time to have purchased.

Donald Trump

Gav19801 wrote: »

But for all I know the EA has made up the other buyer just to see how high I will go. What proof could you ask for that the other bidder even exists? The whole system is so poor

For all you know there could well be another bidder. But it could be someone messing and wasting the EAs time too. Throwing in a bid at a level for which they don't have the money, or access to the credit for. So knowing that they exist isn't foolproof either.