Property Market 2020

Sweet.Science

Looking to sell and buy nearer the end of the year - the thoughts of it

The_Conductor

riclad wrote: »

Fianna fail and fianna gael are saying they will build 20k plus house,s every year,
if this actually happens this could stop house prices, rising in the next few years .

We had 20,644 completions in 2019.
Of this- only half of them ever hit the open market- the other half went to housing associations, local authorities, REITs, large institutional investors etc etc.

We already have our 20k+ completions per annum- if the incentives for REITs and others were removed or restructured, to allow the lions share of the current completions hit the open market- it would most probably have the desired effect.

Large multinationals are already pivoting away from Ireland- as its simply impossible to financially compensate workers in a manner commensurate to the cost of living, including accommodation, in Ireland.

We have lots of things that could be done, or undone, to try and ameliorate the situation- but first thing first- has to be policies to get the new builds out onto the open market.

Dolbhad

Looked on daft this morning. Notice a second hand house that went up for sale start of January has been pulled and put back up with a €14k increase in asking price.

J_1980

It’s not just the multinationals
Go to salaryexplorer and check the Polish traders salaries. Average tradies earns eur3k a month at much lower taxes and living costs.
All this “but we built 80k dwellings in 2007” is totally irrelevant. None of the east european will come here again in droves.

http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=173&loctype=1&job=17&jobtype=1

Woshy

Dolbhad wrote: »

Looked on daft this morning. Notice a second hand house that went up for sale start of January has been pulled and put back up with a €14k increase in asking price.

Oof, that kind of thing is concerning. We're looking to move to a bigger house (currently renting from family after selling our house last year) and there's just nothing coming on the market in the area. The very few properties there are are fairly heftily priced for how much work they need and have been up for a goof few months.

We have the option to buy where we are now at a good price and it's in the perfect location, it's just a little on the small side. Now I'm thinking we should just stay there and make do - adding space where we can and doing it up to be as clever with space as possible. Maybe it's just not worth house hunting

Dolbhad

Woshy wrote: »

Oof, that kind of thing is concerning. We're looking to move to a bigger house (currently renting from family after selling our house last year) and there's just nothing coming on the market in the area. The very few properties there are are fairly heftily priced for how much work they need and have been up for a goof few months.

We have the option to buy where we are now at a good price and it's in the perfect location, it's just a little on the small side. Now I'm thinking we should just stay there and make do - adding space where we can and doing it up to be as clever with space as possible. Maybe it's just not worth house hunting

I presume renting from family the rent is stable and won’t expect an increase? That can give you some time. January is always a bumper month as usually exemptions come back into play so prices can be high. The last two years I’ve gotten exemptions in November so they don’t seem to be running out anymore and are better managed.

It is worth weighing up how much expansion you can do in the house vs cost of buying and doing the work. Still Brexit is in a transitional period, supply still hasn’t caught up with demand and rent is still increasing, I don’t expect a drop in market. Just would like it to stabilise some what.

But I am concerned in January prices that have gone up. Just won’t won’t know for a while how it goes price wise.

19233974

The_Conductor wrote: »

We had 20,644 completions in 2019.
Of this- only half of them ever hit the open market- the other half went to housing associations, local authorities, REITs, large institutional investors etc etc.

We already have our 20k+ completions per annum- if the incentives for REITs and others were removed or restructured, to allow the lions share of the current completions hit the open market- it would most probably have the desired effect.

Large multinationals are already pivoting away from Ireland- as its simply impossible to financially compensate workers in a manner commensurate to the cost of living, including accommodation, in Ireland.

We have lots of things that could be done, or undone, to try and ameliorate the situation- but first thing first- has to be policies to get the new builds out onto the open market.

this is it! Murphy loved spouting about how low a number these large investors made up in the grand scheme of things. But when you actually looked at it over the last 3-5 years they are the overwhelming majority with none of these properties ever going for sale.

As i said previously i cant remember seeing seeing a single new build apt for sale in the last year at all, not one. the current apartment stock is abysmal.

The market is in a vicious cycle of high rents and any completions going straight to build to let.

In order to meet that 40k target we have to start building up, theres no other way around it. Every other capitial city in the world has done it, but we need a new govt and a major shift in policy to achieve it.

crisco10

J_1980 wrote: »

It’s not just the multinationals
Go to salaryexplorer and check the Polish traders salaries. Average tradies earns eur3k a month at much lower taxes and living costs.
All this “but we built 80k dwellings in 2007” is totally irrelevant. None of the east european will come here again in droves.

http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=173&loctype=1&job=17&jobtype=1

Where does that site get its info? The numbers are massive! for everything, average, median salary, cost of MBA etc. There are plenty of roles in the sector I work in there that look about 80 to 100k higher than they should..

http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=104&loctype=1

Am i being unrealistic?

Woshy

Dolbhad wrote: »

I presume renting from family the rent is stable and won’t expect an increase? That can give you some time. January is always a bumper month as usually exemptions come back into play so prices can be high. The last two years I’ve gotten exemptions in November so they don’t seem to be running out anymore and are better managed.

It is worth weighing up how much expansion you can do in the house vs cost of buying and doing the work. Still Brexit is in a transitional period, supply still hasn’t caught up with demand and rent is still increasing, I don’t expect a drop in market. Just would like it to stabilise some what.

But I am concerned in January prices that have gone up. Just won’t won’t know for a while how it goes price wise.

Yeah, it's hard to know. I know January is not a great time to be looking at houses in any year but I'm very disheartened by what we're seeing.

We are in an extremely fortunate position that yes, our rent will not go up and we will not be asked to leave the property at any stage as it's family-owned. So we could theoretically wait for a long time to make a decision. Problem is we feel like we are living in limbo as well as being a bit cramped so if we're staying we would like to get moving on that soon.

All we can do for space is to do an attic conversion with a dormer and change of the shape of the roof so it is a big job that requires planning permission and a bit of money thrown at it. The house also needs to be renovated downstairs. It would probably work out similar to buying a bigger place I think, depending how much work that needs.

J_1980

crisco10 wrote: »

Where does that site get its info? The numbers are massive! for everything, average, median salary, cost of MBA etc. There are plenty of roles in the sector I work in there that look about 80 to 100k higher than they should..

http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=104&loctype=1

Am i being unrealistic?

Possibly too high, agree. But even taking a third off, it’s not enticing anyone to move to Ireland.

But flipping through real estate agents in EE cities is insightful.

https://www.towerbudapest.com/en/sales/budapest_property/367466

23sqm studio/bedsit in Budapest 93k eur.

And people here want Semi detached houses for 200k in Dublin subsidized by “the taxpayer” haha. The next recession won’t be kind on the Irish middle class (same goes for France and Italy). There will be a big realignment of living standards (and unlike 2008-2012 I’d guess that will be permanent).
Id buy any property at current prices with a loan, the next recession will make a massive currency devaluation of the Eur (eur/usd towards 0.70) almost inevitable to soften the blow.

megabomberman

Dolbhad wrote: »

Looked on daft this morning. Notice a second hand house that went up for sale start of January has been pulled and put back up with a €14k increase in asking price.

House in Blarney by any chance? if so it looks like they've been doing work on it over the past couple of months which has pushed the asking price up.

optogirl

See a house in Stoneybatter today down 20k from 270 to 250. Now it needs a lot of work and wouldn't suit a family really but good to see that asking prices are becoming a bit more realistic

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/stoneybatter/3-findlater-street-stoneybatter-dublin-2339663/

l5auim2pjnt8qx

I posted less than 2 years in the accomodation & property section that Vulture Funds/Reits/Hedge Funds etc were charging €3000 per month and upwards for 3 bed properties in Dublin, today less than 2 years later the figure has almost doubled to an eye watering €5,400 per month.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/dublin-2/opus-6-hanover-quay-dublin-2-dublin-1980382/

Going on the rental ratio to Market Sales value formula : 12X14 yrs €5,400 per month 3 bed apartment would equate to a market value of €907,200 each.

This is the change under Fine Gael under Simon Coveney and Eoin Murphy's that they talk of today in the media.

Not Content in just purchasing Corporate type apartment in Dublin 2/4 they are ever looking to increase there profits for shareholders yearly.....Now purchasing
229 apartments.duplexes/houses in Adamstown/Lucan ...600 apartments in Citywest several hundred apartments in Tallaght , 1,500 apartments in Cherrywood and most of these developments have yet to be finished in the process of or have been built YET to name a few.

The brexit situation have pushed Irish in London to returning already or saving up for there return to Ireland.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/abroad/brexit-returning-to-ireland-and-dublin-top-2019-stories-from-irish-abroad-1.4127628

What does this mean for property prices IMO ! that anyone that can afford a property especially in Dublin under the €350K mark or under to purchase asap
or consider suffer long commutes from neighbouring counties or wait it out for the next crash which appears years away.Properties have stalled the last prices quarter and in some cases fell which im my minds eyes was just a stumbling block." I believe property prices will catapult upwards far exceeding Celtic Tiger Years just like rental prices as it doesn't look like there is any end in sight of particularly large American Hedge Funds hoovering up the New Buyers market property before finally moving onto the 2nd hand property in particular large
apartment Developments in the Suburbs.Good Luck!!!

Ush1

The_Conductor wrote: »

We had 20,644 completions in 2019.
Of this- only half of them ever hit the open market- the other half went to housing associations, local authorities, REITs, large institutional investors etc etc.

We already have our 20k+ completions per annum- if the incentives for REITs and others were removed or restructured, to allow the lions share of the current completions hit the open market- it would most probably have the desired effect.

Large multinationals are already pivoting away from Ireland- as its simply impossible to financially compensate workers in a manner commensurate to the cost of living, including accommodation, in Ireland.

We have lots of things that could be done, or undone, to try and ameliorate the situation- but first thing first- has to be policies to get the new builds out onto the open market.

Where are you seeing this?

Dolbhad

megabomberman wrote: »

House in Blarney by any chance? if so it looks like they've been doing work on it over the past couple of months which has pushed the asking price up.

It it. But it was first put up around 2 -3weeks again at 14k less and was fully done at that stage. I drive my the area for work so at kept an eye out for the ad once the for sale sign went up. I don’t see how more work could be done it 3 weeks to facilitate 14k more as it’s seems to be a very recent built house.

Assetbacked

Memphis Happy Coyote wrote: »

I posted less than 2 years in the accomodation & property section that Vulture Funds/Reits/Hedge Funds etc were charging €3000 per month and upwards for 3 bed properties in Dublin, today less than 2 years later the figure has almost doubled to an eye watering €5,400 per month.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/dublin-2/opus-6-hanover-quay-dublin-2-dublin-1980382/

Going on the rental ratio to Market Sales value formula : 12X14 yrs €5,400 per month 3 bed apartment would equate to a market value of €907,200 each.

This is the change under Fine Gael under Simon Coveney and Eoin Murphy's that they talk of today in the media.

Not Content in just purchasing Corporate type apartment in Dublin 2/4 they are ever looking to increase there profits for shareholders yearly.....Now purchasing
229 apartments.duplexes/houses in Adamstown/Lucan ...600 apartments in Citywest several hundred apartments in Tallaght , 1,500 apartments in Cherrywood and most of these developments have yet to be finished in the process of or have been built YET to name a few.

The brexit situation have pushed Irish in London to returning already or saving up for there return to Ireland.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/abroad/brexit-returning-to-ireland-and-dublin-top-2019-stories-from-irish-abroad-1.4127628

What does this mean for property prices IMO ! that anyone that can afford a property especially in Dublin under the €350K mark or under to purchase asap
or consider suffer long commutes from neighbouring counties or wait it out for the next crash which appears years away.Properties have stalled the last prices quarter and in some cases fell which im my minds eyes was just a stumbling block." I believe property prices will catapult upwards far exceeding Celtic Tiger Years just like rental prices as it doesn't look like there is any end in sight of particularly large American Hedge Funds hoovering up the New Buyers market property before finally moving onto the 2nd hand property in particular large
apartment Developments in the Suburbs.Good Luck!!!

Two points on the above emboldened part;

1. With the mortgage lending restrictions capped at 3.5 times salary, do you not think this creates a ceiling for property prices and that we may already be at that ceiling? Coupled with that, supply of housing was non-existent for years so even the increase in property prices was not based on anything other than an increase in demand. Now supply is starting to increase, this should help with reducing the demand that has lead to an increase in the cost of buying property.

2. The demand for rentals comes from the younger generation, many of whom have immigrated to Ireland the past few years to work for multinational companies. There are red flags popping up all over the place which may impact the activities of the multinationals in Ireland, in fact, Ireland is an outlier in Europe when it comes to the economic growth we have been experiencing and we appear to be more in line with the US economic performance. The hyper growth in the stock market, which Trump harps on about, has come at a cost to the US economy in the form of a massive increase in the debt it has taken on. Even the likes of the super massive S&P 500 companies are exposed (e.g. Apple does not have a pile of cash in the bank, its cash pile has been invested in the system in supposedly stable investments). The net effect being that the US slowdown is already overdue, which is out of the control of Irish politicians but it will actually help the rental crisis in Ireland as the staff of the multinationals will just leave to follow the jobs (these are the flexible, hip workers we are told by FG who only want to work and have a co-living bed to rest their head). Therefore, it would seem that the rental market is close to being at its peak.

Billythekid19

Does anyone know if the banks are extending their mortgage cashback offers? I see Bank of Ireland end theirs in June 2020 so theres no incentive to take out a mortgage with them after June.
Looking at EBS or PTSB as they have cashback until december 20020

oppy30

Knex. wrote: »

Was at a viewing in Artane at the weekend for a property that's listed for 405k.

Must have been 60 people in the house when we turned up. Literally had to queue in single file to wander between the rooms.

I was at that viewing too - it's clear that in that case the vendor/agent put the asking price far below the market value (checked the highest offer today, and it was 455k!) in order to generate interest. With the house being appealing by itself, and the general lack of houses in good conditions on sale in this period, it seems they overdid it.

ittakestwo

Another problem I see for Dublin is that a labour crises for particularly lower paid jobs. All new builds in Dublin are in €400k plus region and are bought by people working high paid jobs. People on low paid jobs just cant afford these properties or even the current rents.There is absolute no supply of cheap accommodation. Where are the people that work in the low paid jobs in pubs, restaurants, supermarkets etc around Dublin City living? immigrants wont come here to take these jobs if they have nowhere to live which seems to be the case.

Over the next few years I think this issue will become worse. I would say it must be difficult for a new cafe or restaurant business setting up Dublin CC to get staff. This will be good as probably wages will go up in low paid jobs to reflect the shortage of labour competing for the jobs.

car_radio19834

ittakestwo wrote: »

Another problem I see for Dublin is that a labour crises for particularly lower paid jobs. All new builds in Dublin are in €400k plus region and are bought by people working high paid jobs. People on low paid jobs just cant afford these properties or even the current rents.There is absolute no supply of cheap accommodation. Where are the people that work in the low paid jobs in pubs, restaurants, supermarkets etc around Dublin City living? immigrants wont come here to take these jobs if they have nowhere to live which seems to be the case.

Over the next few years I think this issue will become worse. I would say it must be difficult for a new cafe or restaurant business setting up Dublin CC to get staff. This will be good as probably wages will go up in low paid jobs to reflect the shortage of labour competing for the jobs.

This is a massive problem with Dublin.

I would love to know how many low income workers are irish & living away from home.

Dublin is full of foreign students. These students are content with sharing 5 in a room as they'll not stay permanently. They're the ones working in the cafes/restaurants on the low money.

As for new builds, you are right, it's the ones on big money buying them. And these are the ones that are getting the FTB grants.

People say prices will stay up during a recession but imo it's these foreign students that are cranking up the prices.

Irish people won't live 6 in a room. And 1 or 2 people won't pay (6x300) per month to share so landlords would have to lower the price.

19233974

Assetbacked wrote: »

Two points on the above emboldened part;

1. With the mortgage lending restrictions capped at 3.5 times salary, do you not think this creates a ceiling for property prices and that we may already be at that ceiling? Coupled with that, supply of housing was non-existent for years so even the increase in property prices was not based on anything other than an increase in demand. Now supply is starting to increase, this should help with reducing the demand that has lead to an increase in the cost of buying property.

exactly! prices cant go up forever! we are at peak affordability already, thank god for the lending restrictions

Stark

ittakestwo wrote:

Over the next few years I think this issue will become worse. I would say it must be difficult for a new cafe or restaurant business setting up Dublin CC to get staff. This will be good as probably wages will go up in low paid jobs to reflect the shortage of labour competing for the jobs.

Restaurants are closing by the truckload in San Francisco at the moment for the same reason. People can't afford to live in the city on restaurant staff wages and the restaurants can't afford to keep paying over the odds to hire people.

megabomberman

Dolbhad wrote: »

It it. But it was first put up around 2 -3weeks again at 14k less and was fully done at that stage. I drive my the area for work so at kept an eye out for the ad once the for sale sign went up. I don’t see how more work could be done it 3 weeks to facilitate 14k more as it’s seems to be a very recent built house.

They full kitted out the bathroom and ensuite. A few minor touches around the outside of the house as well, I don't think this particular house is evidence of price rises in that segment of the market in Cork. Although it is hard to know in general since there is such tiny supply for that range of house.

l5auim2pjnt8qx

Assetbacked wrote: »

Two points on the above emboldened part;

1. With the mortgage lending restrictions capped at 3.5 times salary, do you not think this creates a ceiling for property prices and that we may already be at that ceiling? Coupled with that, supply of housing was non-existent for years so even the increase in property prices was not based on anything other than an increase in demand. Now supply is starting to increase, this should help with reducing the demand that has lead to an increase in the cost of buying property.

2. The demand for rentals comes from the younger generation, many of whom have immigrated to Ireland the past few years to work for multinational companies. There are red flags popping up all over the place which may impact the activities of the multinationals in Ireland, in fact, Ireland is an outlier in Europe when it comes to the economic growth we have been experiencing and we appear to be more in line with the US economic performance. The hyper growth in the stock market, which Trump harps on about, has come at a cost to the US economy in the form of a massive increase in the debt it has taken on. Even the likes of the super massive S&P 500 companies are exposed (e.g. Apple does not have a pile of cash in the bank, its cash pile has been invested in the system in supposedly stable investments). The net effect being that the US slowdown is already overdue, which is out of the control of Irish politicians but it will actually help the rental crisis in Ireland as the staff of the multinationals will just leave to follow the jobs (these are the flexible, hip workers we are told by FG who only want to work and have a co-living bed to rest their head). Therefore, it would seem that the rental market is close to being at its peak.

Touching on your first point , the 3.5 times times salary helped keep property prices submerged,but we have to remember some lending instituitions are lending more as this figure appears to be getting more relaxed.The 3.5 was not only to keep prices low for 1st time buyers but also for the Corporate Companies to hoover up properties at a low base in order for hyper profit which we are seeing in the rental & commerical market.Most of the new developments are springing up outside of Dublin in the communter counties not Dublin and any that are coming onto the Dublin is a rat race between the Hedge Funds names including Pension Schemes, Dublin Councils & Charities leftovers for the Public.Those that have saved well over the past years now IMO is the time to jump,I'm afraid for many that boat has sailed mainly speaking for the Dublin Market .Recently New homes for Balbriggan will be starting for 2 beds 270K a conservative estimate as many 2 beds will be 300K or plus more depending on variation & size of garden.This hasn't just come about for as an increase in demand but also a hugh increase in Economic growth in which took the country by surprise ,the country is struggling to keep up with pace in the building,commercial sector also.Proposal of New Housing for Social & Affordable
by the government is almost comical as there is just not enough construction workers in the country and those that are here are booked up for the next 3-5 years,repeatedly when the Housing minister is in trouble Dublin Councils rehash supposedly new developments that have been circulating for the last 10 years to the Media.

On your 2nd point : Not only young people are migrating to Ireland from other countries in Europe but also from 3rd world countries and already mentioned the UK and also Australia were ex-pats will be returning in there hundreds from Australia as the China Stocks dropped 370 billion due to the CoronaVirus which will impact
greatly for the Australian market which is being propped up by Quantitative Easing in an extremely volative market.
The American Market has always shown signs of ups and downs many Multinationals survived the last crash in Ireland and unless the American markets crashes we need not to worry too much as I believe will be cushioned next time around.Also worthy of a note is the Canadian economy & Australian economy didn't suffer a recession in the last crash but quite the reverse.

JamesMason

Memphis Happy Coyote wrote: »

Touching on your first point , the 3.5 times times salary helped keep property prices submerged,but we have to remember some lending instituitions are lending more as this figure appears to be getting more relaxed.The 3.5 was not only to keep prices low for 1st time buyers but also for the Corporate Companies to hoover up properties at a low base in order for hyper profit which we are seeing in the rental & commerical market.Most of the new developments are springing up outside of Dublin in the communter counties not Dublin and any that are coming onto the Dublin is a rat race between the Hedge Funds names including Pension Schemes, Dublin Councils & Charities leftovers for the Public.Those that have saved well over the past years now IMO is the time to jump,I'm afraid for many that boat has sailed mainly speaking for the Dublin Market .Recently New homes for Balbriggan will be starting for 2 beds 270K a conservative estimate as many 2 beds will be 300K or plus more depending on variation & size of garden.This hasn't just come about for as an increase in demand but also a hugh increase in Economic growth in which took the country by surprise ,the country is struggling to keep up with pace in the building,commercial sector also.Proposal of New Housing for Social & Affordable
by the government is almost comical as there is just not enough construction workers in the country and those that are here are booked up for the next 3-5 years,repeatedly when the Housing minister is in trouble Dublin Councils rehash supposedly new developments that have been circulating for the last 10 years to the Media.

On your 2nd point : Not only young people are migrating to Ireland from other countries in Europe but also from 3rd world countries and already mentioned the UK and also Australia were ex-pats will be returning in there hundreds from Australia as the China Stocks dropped 370 billion due to the CoronaVirus which will impact
greatly for the Australian market which is being propped up by Quantitative Easing in an extremely volative market.
The American Market has always shown signs of ups and downs many Multinationals survived the last crash in Ireland and unless the American markets crashes we need not to worry too much as I believe will be cushioned next time around.Also worthy of a note is the Canadian economy & Australian economy didn't suffer a recession in the last crash but quite the reverse.

Once the cheap credit dries up, Ireland is in big trouble...again

Assetbacked

Memphis Happy Coyote wrote: »

On your 2nd point : Not only young people are migrating to Ireland from other countries in Europe but also from 3rd world countries and already mentioned the UK and also Australia were ex-pats will be returning in there hundreds from Australia as the China Stocks dropped 370 billion due to the CoronaVirus which will impact
greatly for the Australian market which is being propped up by Quantitative Easing in an extremely volative market.
The American Market has always shown signs of ups and downs many Multinationals survived the last crash in Ireland and unless the American markets crashes we need not to worry too much as I believe will be cushioned next time around.Also worthy of a note is the Canadian economy & Australian economy didn't suffer a recession in the last crash but quite the reverse.

This is exactly the risk to Ireland - we are more aligned with the US (which is experiencing economic growth) than Europe (Germany and Italy being close to, if not already in, recession). The US economy is $23 trillion in debt, $15 trillion higher than in 2008. US corporate debt is higher than it was in 2007. The entire US economy is a house of cards at the moment, delicately balanced but ultimately not very secure. Unfortunately, given the nature of debt, small triggers can snowball and crash the entire system with many analysts feeling like the ripples are starting to show and the inevitable slowdown/crash is overdue.

I understand that, at the peak, the markets can move based on mood rather than calculated data; which means that investors have FOMO when it comes to gains (e.g. with the S&P 500 gains) but then start to panic when they see some negative events, such as the US/China trade war, news articles talking of a downturn being inevitable, FAANG earnings missing their projections, fund liquidity issues (such as Woodford), the number of IPOs reducing (or even pulled as with WeWork), OECD tax alignment proposals and more regulation of big tech multinationals. All of these things can create a change in optimisim and outlook which results in those who own the debt being less confident in being repaid and it also creates a lack of appetite for new debt issues. Suddenly a big name falters and the herd want their money pack which sparks panic ending up in a crash ultimately.

Dolbhad

megabomberman wrote: »

They full kitted out the bathroom and ensuite. A few minor touches around the outside of the house as well, I don't think this particular house is evidence of price rises in that segment of the market in Cork. Although it is hard to know in general since there is such tiny supply for that range of house.

It is - it seemed to have been built in someone’s front garden though?

Blarney/Tower as a some good new build estates being built. But it can also say it’s in the city now due to boundary change.

JamesMason

Assetbacked wrote: »

This is exactly the risk to Ireland - we are more aligned with the US (which is experiencing economic growth) than Europe (Germany and Italy being close to, if not already in, recession). The US economy is $23 trillion in debt, $15 trillion higher than in 2008. US corporate debt is higher than it was in 2007. The entire US economy is a house of cards at the moment, delicately balanced but ultimately not very secure. Unfortunately, given the nature of debt, small triggers can snowball and crash the entire system with many analysts feeling like the ripples are starting to show and the inevitable slowdown/crash is overdue.

I understand that, at the peak, the markets can move based on mood rather than calculated data; which means that investors have FOMO when it comes to gains (e.g. with the S&P 500 gains) but then start to panic when they see some negative events, such as the US/China trade war, news articles talking of a downturn being inevitable, FAANG earnings missing their projections, fund liquidity issues (such as Woodford), the number of IPOs reducing (or even pulled as with WeWork), OECD tax alignment proposals and more regulation of big tech multinationals. All of these things can create a change in optimisim and outlook which results in those who own the debt being less confident in being repaid and it also creates a lack of appetite for new debt issues. Suddenly a big name falters and the herd want their money back which sparks panic ending up in a crash ultimately.

What...like this?

0gac3yjefb5sv7

This thread has a lot of great info but you'd never buy a house it you took everyone's opinion on when everything will crash etc.

Assetbacked

Pheonix10 wrote: »

This thread has a lot of great info but you'd never buy a house it you took everyone's opinion on when everything will crash etc.

The golden question is "when" it crashes and no one can predict this. That is a certainty.

Property prices shouldn't crash though as demand far outweighs supply and even in a severe economic downturn demand would still be healthy compared to the supply.