Share Picks 2020

Shedite27

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

Shares took some hammering today. Is this the start of another downward spiral?

Think everyone agreed Google, Amazon, Facebook recovered too quickly, no surprise that they're dropping a bit.

Underground

Wouldn't touch Irish banks, or European banks in general.

Jim2007

jams100 wrote: »

Anyone see value in Bank of Ireland shares?
I say that as the shares have fallen nearly 74% (year to date).
Considering we are largely getting the coronavirus under control I can see our domestic economy returning to some sort of new normal in the next 2-3 months.
Of course the economy has tanked but Irish banks have most likely been prudent with lending since 2008 you'd imagine?
Seems like a decent long term investment to me anyway
Thoughts?

There is an entire thread devoted to this topic, please read and comment on it there. Thanks.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113415087&postcount=688

voluntary

AIB is trading at 22% of its 52 week high
BOI is trading at 23% of its 52 week high

Irish banks aren't like any other European banks.
Let's look at crisis-hit Spanish Santander as an example
Santander is trading at 42% of its 52 week high
BNP Paribas is trading at 45% of its 52 week high

Irish banks are trading with much larger discounts to their European peers. This is either a promotion or a trap.

Mad_maxx

voluntary wrote: »

AIB is trading at 22% of its 52 week high
BOI is trading at 23% of its 52 week high

Irish banks aren't like any other European banks.
Let's look at crisis-hit Spanish Santander as an example
Santander is trading at 42% of its 52 week high
BNP Paribas is trading at 45% of its 52 week high

Irish banks are trading with much larger discounts to their European peers. This is either a promotion or a trap.

use an earlier starting date for that comparison and the divergence is even more stark

obviously all european banks have been hammered since the spring but irish banks have been spanked every year for several .

i suppose if they are simply a play thing for big traders , thats not the end of the world , presumably they will move on to some other prey in due course , they sure are playing the manipulation game for a long time however .

Outkast_IRE

There is no confidence in Irish Banks , too many burned in the last few decades by them. On top of this its plain to see that the Irish Banks cannot compete with the Fin Tech banks. Their aging systems should of been changed out years ago but instead they keep patching them up.

This became so obvious to me around 3 years back when a colleague came over from our turkish office and the app he had with his bank could do everything that revolut and N26 does and more. Currency exchange, virtual cards , savings vaults etc.

Revolut hit 1 million customers this week in Ireland and that number is still rising fast.

Mad_maxx

Outkast_IRE wrote: »

There is no confidence in Irish Banks , too many burned in the last few decades by them. On top of this its plain to see that the Irish Banks cannot compete with the Fin Tech banks. Their aging systems should of been changed out years ago but instead they keep patching them up.

This became so obvious to me around 3 years back when a colleague came over from our turkish office and the app he had with his bank could do everything that revolut and N26 does and more. Currency exchange, virtual cards , savings vaults etc.

Revolut hit 1 million customers this week in Ireland and that number is still rising fast.

they are dud investments ,they are likely to be always dud investments , whats being considered here is how unrelentlessly bleak their share performance has been , even dogs have their day now and again

peterofthebr

back during the financial crisis..i was trading CRH, started with a buy of 1,000 on a Monday and sold on the next afternoon with 1k profit... reinvesting that money for the next swing eg buying 1,150 shaes (profiting on the swings ) etc...sadily missed the chance to get them cheap around paddies day this day...but sitting on the sidelines waiting again.
... next to to watch us jobless claims ..goldman has revised it up ..USA is in bad shape.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-13/goldman-sachs-now-sees-u-s-jobless-rate-peaking-at-25-not-15

Supercell

Thinking of going all cash again, looking like this is going to/has started roll over and badly so.

peterofthebr

Supercell wrote: »

Thinking of going all cash again, looking like this is going to/has started roll over and badly so.

buffett be greedy when others are fearful...:)
I listened to Buffet at his berkshire hathaway meeting online, he was more somber then is normal meetings.. and was talking allot of all the usa has achieved in its short life - he said dont bet against america
....i reckon hes carefully saying the tide might go out ..so be prepaired ...

voluntary

Ignore FED.
Ignore ECB.
Ignore quarterly results.

Watch new infection numbers in Germany which started re-opening the economy.
Yesterday showed quite a rapid growth in new cases which have been increasing for the last few days.

If Germany proves reopening of economy is linked to large infection growth then all hopes in quick recovery will be done and dusted.

peterofthebr

voluntary wrote: »

Ignore FED.
Ignore ECB.
Ignore quarterly results.

Watch new infection numbers in Germany which started re-opening the economy.
Yesterday showed quite a rapid growth in new cases which have been increasing for the last few days.

If Germany proves reopening of economy is linked to large infection growth then all hopes in quick recovery will be done and dusted.

will they not change the narritive..rather then locking back down they will maybe say go back to work if its safe to do so ..or somthing ..and try and keep the ecomomy open.

Wombatman

Not....even......going.......to.....login.
Must.........hold........
Let.......go.......of.......mouse.

Bob24

Question of the day: have we been seeing the local top of a bear market rally in the past few days?

Risky one to answer for sure, but it is starting to look like it.

peterofthebr

Bob24 wrote: »

Question of the day: have we been seeing the local top of a bear market rally in the past few days?

Risky one to answer for sure, but it is starting to look like it.

market were up with hopes of vacine and that the FED will do whatever it takes ... now looks like recovery is going to take longer and FEd will need more cash ..about $1.5 trillion might do it. :rolleyes:
I think it was crazy buying into the market now, is the marke still 40% overvalued? - but FED will prob save it (by buying stocks)..so whats the real price of stocks now.

jams100

peterofthebr wrote: »

I think it was crazy buying into the market now, is the marke still 40% overvalued? - but FED will prob save it (by buying stocks)..so whats the real price of stocks now.

Cut most of my losses this morning, your right most stocks are still overvalued, there are some that seem reasonably valued though like Aviva but once the general market falls very few individual stocks won't be caught in the collateral damage, in my opinion, I'm relatively new and cautious myself
Was told by someone last night who actually knows what there doing that the market was signalling a imminent drop

peterofthebr

rather then trying to catch a falling knife, pick out say 10 stocks you would like to have and work out (before you buy) what you think is a good price, also a cutlosses. or if it does down 20% from where you bough them buy more etc..

there will be bargins out there if it goes south, hope that wasent the 'world is ending ' drop back in March.. had my eyes off the ball then.

AmberGold

How do you keep your cash with Degiro? An international transfer will take a day potentially losing a few points due to time. Can you leave 15 / 20K sitting in your account?

I've heard reports of them returning cash.

peterofthebr

AmberGold wrote: »

How do you keep your cash with Degiro? An international transfer will take a day potentially losing a few points due to time. Can you leave 15 / 20K sitting in your account?

I've heard reports of them returning cash.

no i use iticapital and interactiveinvestor .. have cash in EUR/GBP/USD sitting in the accounts there being unused. sorry no know nothing about Degiro

Bob24

peterofthebr wrote: »

I think it was crazy buying into the market now, is the marke still 40% overvalued? - but FED will prob save it (by buying stocks)..so whats the real price of stocks now.

Yeah I think most people agree markets are way overvalued due to central bank interventions (IMO anyone who has been hoping for the illness to become under control and a V shape economic recovery was deluded).

As you said it mostly boils down to central banks, which makes it a bit tricky to make a stance on were markets are headed: we don’t know how The Fed will react if it starts dropping again, and the Fed probably aren’t sure themselves.

peterofthebr

peterofthebr wrote: »

no i use iticapital and interactiveinvestor .. have cash in EUR/GBP/USD sitting in the accounts there being unused. sorry no know nothing about Degiro

Degiro puts your cash in a money fund and the value can go up or down. I had 500€ in there for a week or 2 and I kept loosing 0.01 up to €0.04 so that’s something to be mindful of if you plan to leave it there a long time

peterofthebr

S&P coming back up from the lows of the day..haha.. i wonder if FED is buying 🙂

Bob Harris

peterofthebr wrote: »

S&P coming back up from the lows of the day..haha.. i wonder if FED is buying ��

I'm strongly considering liquidating everything.

peterofthebr

Will be interesting to see how bad the usa GDP will be for Q2 ...

Nemeses2050

AmberGold wrote: »

How do you keep your cash with Degiro? An international transfer will take a day potentially losing a few points due to time. Can you leave 15 / 20K sitting in your account?

I've heard reports of them returning cash.

I normally transfer money ovrnight and by 11 ish, money is in the account. I'm with AIB.

Shedite27

AmberGold wrote: »

How do you keep your cash with Degiro? An international transfer will take a day potentially losing a few points due to time. Can you leave 15 / 20K sitting in your account?

I've heard reports of them returning cash.

AIB is very quick these days. I placed a stadard order about midday last week and had it to trade by 5pm

Bob24

Yep - same thing for N26 to DEGIRO. If I issue a SEPA transfer in the morning I have the money credited to the DEGIRO account in the late afternoon.

Problem is with some banks living in the past who are doing only one SEPA batch per day in the early morning and not even including transactions from the previous evening in that batch. I think in Ireland BOI would be the worst offender, and quite possibly PTSB but not 100% sure. AIB and KBC are definitely fine from first hand experience.

1percent

Hi all,
Long time lurker here, some really insightful opinions on this thread which is why I want to get the perspective of the group here.

What do ye think of vice stocks? particularly tobacco stocks right now? BATS, IMB, PM, MO, etc. They bounced back after March better then most.

My own thinking is smokers will smoke, revenue wont go down (relative), typically have solid balance sheets, and as I saw said on here a few weeks ago TINA when the the realisation sets in that there is no quick recovery. Not everyone can/wants to go into mega cap tech, and gold and its mining equities (expanding my position) is the obvious one, But what do people think of sin stocks? Will there be a flood into them when the manure hits the turbine? Or will the societal mores that tobacco bad affect investors willingness to take a position?

PS. took a small position in CRON in the off chance legalisation is fast tracked so that if can be taxed and pay for this sorry mess.
Thanks

Living Off The Splash

jams100 wrote: »

Cut most of my losses this morning, your right most stocks are still overvalued, there are some that seem reasonably valued though like Aviva but once the general market falls very few individual stocks won't be caught in the collateral damage, in my opinion, I'm relatively new and cautious myself
Was told by someone last night who actually knows what there doing that the market was signalling a imminent drop

I have been tracking Aviva for some time now with a view to making a quick in and out. They have cancelled their latest dividend. Many will exit the share because of this. However it also means that the company get to keep the cash.

Because most people are not driving and staying at home, claims will be down. There may be court cases over loss of business claims but their small print seems to cover them.

Unfortunately many people do not have great faith in their current CEO. If they reinstate their dividend there will definitely be a bounce.

For me however I prefer Legal and General. Life and Pensions rather than general insurance.

Bob24

1percent wrote: »

Hi all,
Long time lurker here, some really insightful opinions on this thread which is why I want to get the perspective of the group here.

What do ye think of vice stocks? particularly tobacco stocks right now? BATS, IMB, PM, MO, etc. They bounced back after March better then most.

My own thinking is smokers will smoke, revenue wont go down (relative), typically have solid balance sheets, and as I saw said on here a few weeks ago TINA when the the realisation sets in that there is no quick recovery. Not everyone can/wants to go into mega cap tech, and gold and its mining equities (expanding my position) is the obvious one, But what do people think of sin stocks? Will there be a flood into them when the manure hits the turbine? Or will the societal mores that tobacco bad affect investors willingness to take a position?

PS. took a small position in CRON in the off chance legalisation is fast tracked so that if can be taxed and pay for this sorry mess.
Thanks

Agree tobacco companies have a safe income stream in the short to medium term (although it is questionable on the medium to long term) and should be able to make money and pay decent dividend in the coming years.

The question mark I have on them is in the long term if people gradually stop smoking cigarettes either due to changing regulations or simple new social habits. But this will take a while and if they can pivot to emerging markets they have some time to go as the change is likely to come there at a much later stage.

They are developing new products to give access to smoking with reduced cancer risk (e-cigarettes, heated tobacco, ...) but even this could be at risk and at the mercy of regulators (I believe US regulators have been hitting e-cigarettes lately). They might also be in a position to go into cannabis of this becomes legal and takes off at a global scale, but that isn't a given.

So yeah, I'd go for these stocks but with the above risks in mind.