Wind / Rainfall warnings :Potentially very windy Weds 18th Dec 2019

Gaoth Laidir

John.Icy wrote: »

And if a technical report comes in for 135km/h then I'll hold my hands up for being dismissive. Till then, 125km/h at Mace will go down as the strongest gust (which is what you also got).

I tried Galway Bay buoy but they only seem to have mean wind speeds on display. If you know of elsewhere onshore to check do let me know as 135km/h would be very impressive. Some of the wow stations in the region only have rainfall stats.

The Finnis Buoy, in open water just east of Inisheer, had a 73-knot gust at 21:25, but either side of it winds were much lower. It was strong for about 1.5 hours, with gusts of around 60 knots, but that was it.

Location.


https://twitter.com/FinnisBuoy/status/1207412986568163334

Don Juan II

Regarding the flooding in Galway. I mentioned this here in the past:
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=111990490&postcount=1026

me wrote:

I love the idea of a storm index ... it doesn't directly correlate with the impact of the storm (it can ... but not always).
For example, the if the lowest pressure, highest wind speeds and spring tides occur at the same time ... then the impact of the storm can be much higher for costal towns and villages. So even though the "storm index" might not be that high, the overall impact might be much higher.

IMHO, this is what happened in Galway. Impact of the storm is key. If you want to use absolutely values for wind speed or rainfall as the guide for the colour warning system, then fine ... but it will get the impact wrong quite often.

If the high winds had occurred last night in Galway at low tide (or mid-tide), then it would have been a non-event and poeple would barely have noticed. However, the low pressure and highest winds all aligned with the full tide ... that's why the impact was so much greater.

I live right next to the sea in Galway and I see this quite frequently. Last night was windy but nothing expectional. But where I live, I could see the sea level rise MUCH higher that expected for a tide of that height

Xenji

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

That's not correct. It's still at the same location it's been since 1956. At that time it replaced the one at Blacksod.

In 2012 it became automated, but it's still at the same site.



Streeview

Not sure how I got that completely backwards after spending about 10 summers around the area

Storm 10

On local radio ME blamed the track of the storm for the lack of warnings as they were unsure where the low centre would go, they should have checked here

corsav6

Snow Garden wrote: »

Great table Sryanbruen. Thanks again.

I am curious - why is Belmullet so much stronger than Atiyah (115 v 101) and yet Newport is so much less than Atiyah (113 v 128)?
I mean they are so close to each other...I guess that is nature of weather/gusts.

Atiyah was a lot stronger than I thought but Lorenzo hardly deserves to be on the table.

Newport station is in Furnace which is inland and away from the worst gusts.
I'm 8 miles from it on the Castlebar side but my personal weather station reports closer to Belmullet readings.

corsav6

Xenji wrote: »

Since they moved where the weather station is in Belmullet it is less exposed to the elements, up till 2012 it was on Blacksods lighthouse.

The station in Furnace is halfway between Castlebar and Newport and is on quite flat land jutting out into Lough Furnace.

Plus Belmullet is nearly over an hour away by car from Newport, 68 kilometers.

It's actually halfway down the Mulranny road. I'm about halfway between Newport and Castlebar at 50m asl so windspeeds here tend to be a little higher as furnace is fairly low lying.

Oneiric 3

Danno wrote: »

+1

My proposed warning system:

Weather Watch: Issued a few days in advance giving "heads up" in advance of an event that may or may not happen - gives people time to take some precautionary action. Qualify the watch with a % chance. For example: There is a 60% chance of high winds, heavy rain, low temperatures, etc... in 72hrs/on Sunday...

Weather Advisory: Most suitable for outdoor activity and coastal events overall. Aimed at: "if you're taking the boat out, driving a high-sided vehicle, climbing a mountain, working in a forest or up slating a roof the advice is for strong winds which may present very localised challenging conditions" Again qualify this with say a 75% chance of this effecting areas within 30 miles of the northwest coast, etc...

Weather Warning: More in-tune with the general population to encourage deferral of non-necessary travel or activity outdoors, or in the case of some weather types (summer heat, dense fog) to take extra precautions. Again qualify this with a 40% chance of this effecting say the inland southeast and south midlands.

Weather Alert: More like the current Red Alert. Warrants closure of schools, public buildings, etc... For the ease of local authorities I would keep the counties system here in case you'd have some twit of a school principal 2 miles east of Youghal saying well, we're not south, we're southeast and we're not closing.

Thoughts?

This is not unlike what Met Eireann used to do back in my day; those days before this stupid 'colour code' system. Not only are they stupid, but they assume that the Irish population are stupid and toddleresque.

What was so wrong with using the Beaufort scale? When you heard a weather warning for Gale 8 to Storm 11 for coastal regions with the risk of coastal flooding etc, the message was clear - it was going to get windy and flooding just might occur.

Salthill is a windy place at the best of times. Even a summer sea breeze there can be unusual strong even when there is no breeze at all in town. My top gust well inland in the county was 58 knots so it only stands to reason that winds along the Galway Bay coast would be at least 10 to 15 knots higher than this, and that is being very conservative.

Oneiric 3

Villain wrote: »

no-one mentioned what HARMONIE was showing, would be interesting to know what it had forecast..

Met Éireann often share the charts on twitter during a storm but none shared this time. A consistent sharing of the HARMONIE model charts for any warning would be helpful.

The Harmonie model on both the Met Eireann site and on the DMI yesterday showed more a less what we got last night. A narrow swathe of strong winds moving up the country from the south as that Atlantic low pushed northwards.

Of all the models posted the night before by 'Meteorite' on this thread, I would say, overall, that the 'ICON' probably was probably the most spot on. I admit I didn't really follow any of the models regarding this potential beforehand, but it did seem, to me at least, that it was the ICON that picked up on this potential first, but I am open to contradiction.

Green Peter

tabby aspreme wrote:

Would the trees not have blown down if Met Eireann had called an Orange warning earlier

Yes, but people would have made different travel arrangement and tried to protect property. I think you know that anyway

ninebeanrows

Gerry Murphy 755am yesterday gave a very strong forecast on radio 1.

Can listen here- listen to it in full

https://www.rte.ie/radio/radioplayer/html5/#/radio1/21678953

Message was clearly out to morning Ireland listeners yesterday

tabby aspreme

Green Peter wrote: »

Yes, but people would have made different travel arrangement and tried to protect property. I think you know that anyway

A yellow warning cover's wind up to 110km's, when I hear of a yellow warning I check things are secure, fill the bath with water in case of a power cut, and I don't go outside unless it's absolutely necessary, people were warned well in advance, this was coming, it just happened this storm was at the upper limit of a yellow warning

tabby aspreme

tabby aspreme wrote: »

A yellow warning cover's wind up to 110km's, when I hear of a yellow warning I check things are secure, fill the bath with water in case of a power cut, and I don't go outside unless it's absolutely necessary, people were warned well in advance, this was coming, it just happened this storm was at the upper limit of a yellow warning

So you do Orange level preparations for a Yellow warning. Ok so, no harm in that....

John.Icy

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

This is not unlike what Met Eireann used to do back in my day; those days before this stupid 'colour code' system. Not only are they stupid, but they assume that the Irish population are stupid and toddleresque.

What was so wrong with using the Beaufort scale?

Surely the Beaufort scale would be harder for people to grasp? If a 3 level system causes such issue god help us with 12 tiers. I'm sure many are familiar with the older ways but I'd bet a pretty penny many under the age of 30 would be scratching their head.

The general public, under a certain age, are inadequately informed (to not use the word stupid) when it comes to the technicalities of the weather. No shame in it, it's a complicated science that many of us enthusiasts barely scratch the surface of.

Colour systems are in place all over the world and maybe they all have as bad issues as us but I highly doubt every single storm or warning issued is as controversial as it is here.

Whatever system replaces the 3 colours will most likely still have issues. To someone it will be barely a breeze and to someone else they will be hiding under the bed at the sight of 100km/h gusts. One thinks it is crazy to have even gotten a warning and the other wants a code red shutdown.

I guess if we went back to simple ways or the Beaufort everyone could be told to either understand the system or bugger off and save their breath complaining (unless total misforecast).

Naggdefy

Beaufort used do me fine. Strong Gale 9 at sea up and you knew where you were at. And for those of us well inland a gale to reach you was worth noting.

I remember the 12.50 radio forecast on Christmas Eve 1997, winds to gust between 70 and 90mph in the southern half of the country. By 3pm it was winds gusting between 80-100mph. Hitting the 100mph mark was always seriously severe.

Rougies

Deleted User wrote: »

So you do Orange level preparations for a Yellow warning. Ok so, no harm in that....

It's up to the individual to prepare according to their specific circumstances such as location / exposure / profession etc. There's no "Orange level preparations", orange just means the winds are expected to be a certain strength, it doesn't tell you how many bottles of water you need.

Mortelaro

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Gerry Murphy 755am yesterday gave a very strong forecast on radio 1.

Can listen here- listen to it in full

https://www.rte.ie/radio/radioplayer/html5/#/radio1/21678953

Message was clearly out to morning Ireland listeners yesterday

Correct, I heard that one
I alluded to it in a post last night
People are just gone STUPID
And Lazy

Gaoth Laidir

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Gerry Murphy 755am yesterday gave a very strong forecast on radio 1.

Can listen here- listen to it in full

https://www.rte.ie/radio/radioplayer/html5/#/radio1/21678953

Message was clearly out to morning Ireland listeners yesterday

Could. Not. Be. Clearer.

"Raw, rough"...

"Most signifcantly, though, this evening and tonight....very strong and possible extremely strong along the west coast, possibly reaching Orange warning level for a time along the west coast...still some uncertainty regarding exact strength in the west...those warning may be increased to Orange during the day...so please stay tuned to websites and the forecast. Very strong winds continuining overnight after midnight in the north...

sdanseo

Saw footage just there on Facebook of people ankle to knee deep in the waves trying to move their cars.

Whatever about the forecast, that's abysmal behaviour, fed by a sense of entitlement, putting themselves and potential rescuers at risk is not on.

Storm 10

That's the problem why only Orange for Cork and saying possibly stormy off the West Coast they should have been Orange from Cork to Mayo, problem sorted no one in the West would worry about a high water that was not going to be a problem with a Yellow warning its when the Orange warning went out too late and most people not aware of it then you got a storm surge of 7 feet that was never mentioned is when the flooding came, people in Kinvara across the Bay where there was no wind to affect them were shocked when the water came over the harbour there caused by the surge.

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Gerry Murphy 755am yesterday gave a very strong forecast on radio 1.

Can listen here- listen to it in full

https://www.rte.ie/radio/radioplayer/html5/#/radio1/21678953

Message was clearly out to morning Ireland listeners yesterday

Snow Garden

sdanseo wrote: »

Saw footage just there on Facebook of people ankle to knee deep in the waves trying to move their cars.

Whatever about the forecast, that's abysmal behaviour, fed by a sense of entitlement, putting themselves and potential rescuers at risk is not on.

There is a brand new plush cinema in Salthill. Right across the road from the infamous car park. I believe many people panicked and ran out when they heard the commotion. I doubt those folks knew what colour the warning was or when the high tide was or that a storm was brewing. I am not sure entitlement came into it but far be it from me to tell you how outraged to feel.

Poulgorm

That's fine if you were listening to the radio. A problem for many people, who just use the Met Eireann app for their forecast, is the fact that the yellow warning changed to orange just 1 hour (or thereabouts) before the arrival of the storm.

No question, Met Eireann were too slow to update the app. To be fair to them, they usually get it right in a more timely fashion.

Mortelaro

Snow Garden wrote: »

There is a brand new plush cinema in Salthill. Right across the road from the infamous car park. I believe many people panicked and ran out when they heard the commotion. I doubt those folks knew what colour the warning was or when the high tide was or that a storm was brewing. I am not sure entitlement came into it but far be it from me to tell you how outraged to feel.

Well I'd say for their next outing at that cinema,of a wet and windy night,they'll park somewhere else
You can't beat experience
The old dog for the hard road and the pup for the path.

Snow Garden

Mortelaro wrote: »

Well I'd say for their next outing at that cinema,of a wet and windy night,they'll park somewhere else
You can't beat experience
The old dog for the hard road and the pup for the path.

Some of them tried to lift their cars out of the water using 'the force'....

sdanseo

Snow Garden wrote: »

There is a brand new plush cinema in Salthill. Right across the road from the infamous car park. I believe many people panicked and ran out when they heard the commotion. I doubt those folks knew what colour the warning was or when the high tide was or that a storm was brewing. I am not sure entitlement came into it but far be it from me to tell you how outraged to feel.

Why they found themselves in the situation isn't relevant - leave all of that aside.
You don't run into waves to try and rescue the car in the middle of a damn storm. Risking yourself is stupid, risking the rescuers is selfish and entitled (perhaps unintentionally, through not thinking it over).

corsav6

Mortelaro wrote: »

Well I'd say for their next outing at that cinema,of a wet and windy night,they'll park somewhere else
You can't beat experience
The old dog for the hard road and the pup for the path.

Somewhere else? It's a car park, kinda the obvious place to park a car. The fact it's prone to flooding isn't something everyone will be aware of.
Anyway the car park flooding is not a met issue, the council are well aware of the issue and should have done something about it by now.

Oneiric 3

corsav6 wrote: »

Somewhere else? It's a car park, kinda the obvious place to park a car. The fact it's prone to flooding isn't something everyone will be aware of.

Parking space in Galway is always at a premium. Perhaps Mr. Arklow could inform the good people of Salthill about other parking alternatives in the area.

Mortelaro

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Parking space in Galway is always at a premium. Perhaps Mr. Arklow could inform the good people of Salthill about other parking alternatives in the area.

I have been in Salthill you know
I would suggest other cinemas of a wet and windy night if driving
Theres one beside the G Hotel with plenty of safe parking...

ZX7R

2 I points I would like to make
,I'm a biker I rode motorcycle over 20 years it's my only mode of transport
I live in the east of the country an yellow weather warning was issued for my area .
Through the day the weather was bad so guess what I left the bike at home and got a lift and glad I did the weather was worst at the time I left for work.
Thoese people who had there bikes damaged in the west should really have know the weather there can worsen in a short period of time, I've no sympathy for them.
Second point.
The colour coding for weather alerts will not change as long as we are part of meteoalarm it's a standardized system,
Also met eairann received funding for it.

ZX7R

ZX7R wrote: »

Thoese people who had there bikes damaged in the west should really have know the weather there can worsen in a short period of time, I've no sympathy for them.

I’d share what they said to that, involving “go” and “yourself” amongst some names and “shove”s, but I’d get a siteban for it I think.

ZX7R

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I’d share what they said to that, involving “go” and “yourself” amongst some names and “shove”s, but I’d get a siteban for it I think.

I not particularly worried what they have to say really,if they insist on biking in weather conditions that were well document to worsen at short notice ,they have only them selves to blame.
Ignorance is Bliss as they say