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December 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 28-11-2019 9:22am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,189 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT (Irish mean temperature, an average for five stations, Casement, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon). The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 5.4 C.

    2. Predict the MAX, the highest daily maximum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

    3. Predict the MIN, the lowest daily minimum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

    4. Predict the PRC, the average rainfall expressed as percentage of normal at the eleven stations we normally use, which include the five mentioned for IMT and also Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

    5. Predict the SUN, the total sunshine expressed as a percentage of normal at the six stations used (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia).

    6. For the BONUS question, our traditional prediction of MAX and MIN on Christmas Day at Dub (A) and (for 3 point super-bonus), will it snow at any location among the 25 regular reporting stations on the met.ie website, and this includes 24th as well as 25th of December. If you get this right on Yes or No, it's worth 2 points for yes verifying, a correct location is worth 1 more point, but no locations will bring in the "No" scores at 3.

    Deadline for entries will be 0300h Sunday 1st of December, with 1 point deductions for every 3h late to 1500h Monday 2nd, after which penalties are 1 point per hour (in addition to the 12 points accumulated to that time).

    Good luck !!

    (not sure if there will be a winter forecast contest, if so look for the thread in the first week of December)


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry__6.5__14.5__-5.6__97__103__6.4__-1.2 _YES!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels—— 11.5—- 13.7—- -2.7—- 102—— 89—- 6.9——- -2——-no


  • Registered Users Posts: 663 ✭✭✭ Tazio


    Tazio__6.5__12.2__-4.8__95__99__7.2__1.5__no


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen__5.1__14.8__-5.9__110__105__7.1__1.3 _No

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,713 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal__5.3__12.0__-4.0__97__97__8.0__0.5 _No


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  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,103 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH___6.8__13.2__-5.8__95__95__5.8__-1.4__YES


  • Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3 _6.8__14.0__-6.2__95__90__9.2__1.5 __no


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,858 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002__6.0__14.6__-5.7__95__95__7.3__2.3 _No


  • Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways ___5.5__14.0__-4.2__102__98__6.9__2.0__no


  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ____ 5.0 ___ 13.0 ____ -6.9 ___ 80 ____ 100 ____ 8.0 ___ -1.0 ___ No.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,408 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn __6.2__14.2__-5.8__90__110__8.2__3.5__no


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts__6.1__13.5__-3.8__90__113__7.4__-1.4 _No!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 457 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 __6.0__12.5__-6.0__110__100__8.0__-3.5__no


  • Registered Users Posts: 747 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    adam240610 ____5.2__13__-5__90_120_7__1__no

    Feeling mostly round numbers this month...


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public__4.8__14.3__-7.9__99__119__6.9__-2.3 _No


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,189 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    MTC __________ 7.1 _ 15.3 _ -5.8 _ 080 _ 110 __ 10.4, 6.4 and no snow

    NormaL ________5.4 _ 15.0 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 7.7, 2.2 and no snow


  • Registered Users Posts: 359 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner_____6_____14_____-5_____100____100____7____0____No


  • Registered Users Posts: 622 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ________5.9 _ 14.3 _ -6.7 _ 115 _ 105 ___ 9.7, 3.8, no


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa ______5.8 _ 13.3 _ -9.4 _ 120 _ 91 ___ 9.7. 1.8, YES!


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,995 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac ________5.3 _ 14.8 _ -4.7 _ 106 _ 101 ___ 11.7, 4.8, no


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7______ 3.9 _ 13.3 _ -9.0_ 110 _ 110 __ 2.7, -5.3c and YES Snow at Dublin Airport

    NormaL ________5.4 _ 15.0 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 7.7, 2.2 and no snow

    Apologies for the Lateness!


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,556 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    So late lol

    Rikand ____ 5.5 ____ 14.0 ____ -6.0 ____ 90 ____ 120 ___ yes, 6.0 -2.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,189 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for December 2019


    FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Dub (25th) __ snow?


    M.T. Cranium ________ 7.1 _ 15.3 _ -5.8 _ 080 _ 110 __ 10.4 _ 6.4 ___ no

    Sunflower3 __________ 6.8 _ 14.0 _ -6.2 _ 095 _ 090 ___ 9.2 _ 1.5 ___ no

    DOCARCH ___________ 6.8 _ 13.2 _ -5.8 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 5.8 _-1.4 __ YES

    Pauldry _____________ 6.5 _ 14.5 _ -5.6 _ 097 _ 103 ___ 6.4 _-1.2 __ YES!!!

    Tazio _______________6.5 _ 12.2 _ -4.8 _ 095 _ 099 ___ 7.2 _ 1.5 ___ no

    Jpmarn _____________ 6.2 _ 14.2 _ -5.8 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 8.2 _ 3.5 ___ no

    mickger844posts ______6.1 _ 13.5 _ -3.8 _ 090 _ 113 ___ 7.4 _-1.4 ___ No!!!

    Artane2002 __________6.0 _ 14.6 _ -5.7 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 7.3 _ 2.3 ___ no

    MrSkinner ___________ 6.0 _ 14.0 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 7.0 _ 0.0 ___ no

    Dasa29 _____________ 6.0 _ 12.5 _ -6.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 8.0 _-3.5 ___ no

    Tae laidir ____________5.9 _ 14.3 _ -6.7 _ 115 _ 105 ___ 9.7 _ 3.8 ___ no


    ____ Con Sensus _____ 5.9 _ 14.0 _ -5.8 _ 097 _ 100 ___ 7.3 _ 0.8 ___ no


    Dacogawa __ (-1) ____ 5.8 _ 13.3 _ -9.4 _ 120 _ 091 ___ 9.7 _ 1.8 ___ YES!

    200motels __________ 5.6 _ 13.7 _ -2.7 _ 102 _ 089 ___ 6.9 _-2.0 ___ no

    waterways __________ 5.5 _ 14.0 _ -4.2 _ 102 _ 098 ___ 6.9 _ 2.0 ___ no

    Rikand ____ (-5) _____ 5.5 _ 14.0 _ -6.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 6.0 _-2.0 __ Yes


    ___ NormaL _________ 5.4 _ 15.0 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 7.7 _ 2.2 ___ no


    john mac __ (-2) _____ 5.3 _ 14.8 _ -4.7 _ 106 _ 101 ___11.7 _ 4.8 ___ no

    Bsal ________________5.3 _ 12.0 _ -4.0 _ 097_ 097 ___ 8.0 _ 0.5 ___ no

    adam240610 ________ 5.2 _ 13.0 _ -5.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 7.0 _ 1.0 ___ no

    sryanbruen __________ 5.1 _ 14.8 _ -5.9 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 7.1 _ 1.3 ___ no

    Kindred Spirit ________ 5.0 _ 13.0 _ -6.9 _ 080 _ 100 ___ 8.0 _-1.0 ___ no

    Joe Public ___________ 4.8 _ 14.3 _ -7.9 _ 099 _ 119 ___ 6.9 _ -2.3 ___ no

    BLIZZARD7 __ (-3) ____3.9 _ 13.3 _ -9.0 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 2.7 _-5.3 __ YES (Dublin A)

    ==================================

    Consensus will be subject to adjustments if we have more entries, as we may. I have now fixed a problem after making an inquiry. This has slightly altered our consensus IMT.

    The forecasts for Christmas snow are running 17-5 against at this point. The monthly consensus looks a bit on the mild side with a slight indication of less rainfall than average although not by any significant amount. No forecasts go above 120% of normal rainfall.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,189 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Just noting that -3.3 at Moore Park (2nd) is probably the MIN for the time being. Not sure how long that one will survive, as milder air takes over for a while and we get a first look at MAX candidates later this week.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,408 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    MAX at 13.8°C recorded at Finner Camp on the 5th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Jpmarn wrote: »
    MAX at 13.8°C recorded at Finner Camp on the 5th.


    That's half the field knocked out :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,189 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After the first week (almost forgot to update with the storm going on) ...

    IMT on 5.4 which is 0.8 below normal.

    MAX 13.8 (Finner Camp 5th then was equalled on 7th at Moorepark).

    MIN -3.3 (Moorepark 2nd)

    PRC only 33% of normal to 7th, probably picked up closer to 60% now.

    SUN 131% of normal (785/600).


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Dublin Airport 13.8c (again!!) but Pheonix Park may have gone higher


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,408 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    The old MAX of 13.8°C has been recorded 3 times at various stations over the past few days but now has been beaten.


    New MAX at 14.2°C recorded at Phoenix Park on the 10th.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,189 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After two weeks ...

    IMT was on 5.9, the second week averaged 5.8(4) and that was 0.1 below normal for the period.

    MAX 14.2 and MIN -3.3

    PRC is now around 103% of normal after a wetter second week (173%) balanced the dry first week (33%).

    SUN is now 124% of normal after another somewhat brighter than average mid-December week at 117% (704/600).

    For the bonus question, current models are indicating different scenarios to some extent but temperatures look either close to average or a bit milder, even so with the interval for snow including the 24th, some chance of that happening at one location in the grid.


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