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December 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (Irish mean temperature, an average for five stations, Casement, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon). The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 5.4 C.

2. Predict the MAX, the highest daily maximum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the MIN, the lowest daily minimum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the PRC, the average rainfall expressed as percentage of normal at the eleven stations we normally use, which include the five mentioned for IMT and also Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

5. Predict the SUN, the total sunshine expressed as a percentage of normal at the six stations used (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia).

6. For the BONUS question, our traditional prediction of MAX and MIN on Christmas Day at Dub (A) and (for 3 point super-bonus), will it snow at any location among the 25 regular reporting stations on the met.ie website, and this includes 24th as well as 25th of December. If you get this right on Yes or No, it's worth 2 points for yes verifying, a correct location is worth 1 more point, but no locations will bring in the "No" scores at 3.

Deadline for entries will be 0300h Sunday 1st of December, with 1 point deductions for every 3h late to 1500h Monday 2nd, after which penalties are 1 point per hour (in addition to the 12 points accumulated to that time).

Good luck !!

(not sure if there will be a winter forecast contest, if so look for the thread in the first week of December)

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pauldry

Pauldry__6.5__14.5__-5.6__97__103__6.4__-1.2 _YES!!!

200motels

200motels—— 11.5—- 13.7—- -2.7—- 102—— 89—- 6.9——- -2——-no

Tazio

Tazio__6.5__12.2__-4.8__95__99__7.2__1.5__no

sryanbruen

sryanbruen__5.1__14.8__-5.9__110__105__7.1__1.3 _No

Bsal

Bsal__5.3__12.0__-4.0__97__97__8.0__0.5 _No

DOCARCH

DOCARCH___6.8__13.2__-5.8__95__95__5.8__-1.4__YES

sunflower3

Sunflower3 _6.8__14.0__-6.2__95__90__9.2__1.5 __no

Artane2002

Artane2002__6.0__14.6__-5.7__95__95__7.3__2.3 _No

waterways

waterways ___5.5__14.0__-4.2__102__98__6.9__2.0__no

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ____ 5.0 ___ 13.0 ____ -6.9 ___ 80 ____ 100 ____ 8.0 ___ -1.0 ___ No.

Jpmarn

Jpmarn __6.2__14.2__-5.8__90__110__8.2__3.5__no

mickger844posts

mickger844posts__6.1__13.5__-3.8__90__113__7.4__-1.4 _No!!!

dasa29

Dasa29 __6.0__12.5__-6.0__110__100__8.0__-3.5__no

adam240610

adam240610 ____5.2__13__-5__90_120_7__1__no

Feeling mostly round numbers this month...

Joe Public

Joe Public__4.8__14.3__-7.9__99__119__6.9__-2.3 _No

M.T. Cranium

MTC __________ 7.1 _ 15.3 _ -5.8 _ 080 _ 110 __ 10.4, 6.4 and no snow

NormaL ________5.4 _ 15.0 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 7.7, 2.2 and no snow

mrskinner

Skinner_____6_____14_____-5_____100____100____7____0____No

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ________5.9 _ 14.3 _ -6.7 _ 115 _ 105 ___ 9.7, 3.8, no

dacogawa

Dacogawa ______5.8 _ 13.3 _ -9.4 _ 120 _ 91 ___ 9.7. 1.8, YES!

John mac

john mac ________5.3 _ 14.8 _ -4.7 _ 106 _ 101 ___ 11.7, 4.8, no

BLIZZARD7

BLIZZARD7______ 3.9 _ 13.3 _ -9.0_ 110 _ 110 __ 2.7, -5.3c and YES Snow at Dublin Airport

NormaL ________5.4 _ 15.0 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 7.7, 2.2 and no snow

Apologies for the Lateness!

Rikand

So late lol

Rikand ____ 5.5 ____ 14.0 ____ -6.0 ____ 90 ____ 120 ___ yes, 6.0 -2.0

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for December 2019

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Dub (25th) __ snow?

M.T. Cranium ________ 7.1 _ 15.3 _ -5.8 _ 080 _ 110 __ 10.4 _ 6.4 ___ no

Sunflower3 __________ 6.8 _ 14.0 _ -6.2 _ 095 _ 090 ___ 9.2 _ 1.5 ___ no

DOCARCH ___________ 6.8 _ 13.2 _ -5.8 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 5.8 _-1.4 __ YES

Pauldry _____________ 6.5 _ 14.5 _ -5.6 _ 097 _ 103 ___ 6.4 _-1.2 __ YES!!!

Tazio _______________6.5 _ 12.2 _ -4.8 _ 095 _ 099 ___ 7.2 _ 1.5 ___ no

Jpmarn _____________ 6.2 _ 14.2 _ -5.8 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 8.2 _ 3.5 ___ no

mickger844posts ______6.1 _ 13.5 _ -3.8 _ 090 _ 113 ___ 7.4 _-1.4 ___ No!!!

Artane2002 __________6.0 _ 14.6 _ -5.7 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 7.3 _ 2.3 ___ no

MrSkinner ___________ 6.0 _ 14.0 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 7.0 _ 0.0 ___ no

Dasa29 _____________ 6.0 _ 12.5 _ -6.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 8.0 _-3.5 ___ no

Tae laidir ____________5.9 _ 14.3 _ -6.7 _ 115 _ 105 ___ 9.7 _ 3.8 ___ no

____ Con Sensus _____ 5.9 _ 14.0 _ -5.8 _ 097 _ 100 ___ 7.3 _ 0.8 ___ no

Dacogawa __ (-1) ____ 5.8 _ 13.3 _ -9.4 _ 120 _ 091 ___ 9.7 _ 1.8 ___ YES!

200motels __________ 5.6 _ 13.7 _ -2.7 _ 102 _ 089 ___ 6.9 _-2.0 ___ no

waterways __________ 5.5 _ 14.0 _ -4.2 _ 102 _ 098 ___ 6.9 _ 2.0 ___ no

Rikand ____ (-5) _____ 5.5 _ 14.0 _ -6.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 6.0 _-2.0 __ Yes

___ NormaL _________ 5.4 _ 15.0 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 7.7 _ 2.2 ___ no

john mac __ (-2) _____ 5.3 _ 14.8 _ -4.7 _ 106 _ 101 ___11.7 _ 4.8 ___ no

Bsal ________________5.3 _ 12.0 _ -4.0 _ 097_ 097 ___ 8.0 _ 0.5 ___ no

adam240610 ________ 5.2 _ 13.0 _ -5.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 7.0 _ 1.0 ___ no

sryanbruen __________ 5.1 _ 14.8 _ -5.9 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 7.1 _ 1.3 ___ no

Kindred Spirit ________ 5.0 _ 13.0 _ -6.9 _ 080 _ 100 ___ 8.0 _-1.0 ___ no

Joe Public ___________ 4.8 _ 14.3 _ -7.9 _ 099 _ 119 ___ 6.9 _ -2.3 ___ no

BLIZZARD7 __ (-3) ____3.9 _ 13.3 _ -9.0 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 2.7 _-5.3 __ YES (Dublin A)

==================================

Consensus will be subject to adjustments if we have more entries, as we may. I have now fixed a problem after making an inquiry. This has slightly altered our consensus IMT.

The forecasts for Christmas snow are running 17-5 against at this point. The monthly consensus looks a bit on the mild side with a slight indication of less rainfall than average although not by any significant amount. No forecasts go above 120% of normal rainfall.

M.T. Cranium

Just noting that -3.3 at Moore Park (2nd) is probably the MIN for the time being. Not sure how long that one will survive, as milder air takes over for a while and we get a first look at MAX candidates later this week.

Jpmarn

MAX at 13.8°C recorded at Finner Camp on the 5th.

Joe Public

Jpmarn wrote: »

MAX at 13.8°C recorded at Finner Camp on the 5th.

That's half the field knocked out

M.T. Cranium

After the first week (almost forgot to update with the storm going on) ...

IMT on 5.4 which is 0.8 below normal.

MAX 13.8 (Finner Camp 5th then was equalled on 7th at Moorepark).

MIN -3.3 (Moorepark 2nd)

PRC only 33% of normal to 7th, probably picked up closer to 60% now.

SUN 131% of normal (785/600).

pauldry

Dublin Airport 13.8c (again!!) but Pheonix Park may have gone higher

Jpmarn

The old MAX of 13.8°C has been recorded 3 times at various stations over the past few days but now has been beaten.

New MAX at 14.2°C recorded at Phoenix Park on the 10th.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT was on 5.9, the second week averaged 5.8(4) and that was 0.1 below normal for the period.

MAX 14.2 and MIN -3.3

PRC is now around 103% of normal after a wetter second week (173%) balanced the dry first week (33%).

SUN is now 124% of normal after another somewhat brighter than average mid-December week at 117% (704/600).

For the bonus question, current models are indicating different scenarios to some extent but temperatures look either close to average or a bit milder, even so with the interval for snow including the 24th, some chance of that happening at one location in the grid.