Rainfall / Wind warnings : Fri 1st - Sat 2nd Nov 2019

Meteorite58

Thought a thread worthy as could get some high rainfall totals coupled with strong winds Fri 1st into Sat 2nd.

Can amend title if wind warnings are added.

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IMO ECM 12Z is showing about the middle ground for wind speeds early Sat morning into the day. Currently showing the strongest winds on the Kerry / W Cork coasts, gusting up to about 100 or 110 km/h and 70 to 90 km/h overland in the SW for a time , blustery day to follow in the SW and along coasts.

EURO 4 and ICON showing it stronger as does the WRF -NMM surprisingly. ARPEGEE shows it weaker , keeping most of the winds off shore.

So ECM to me has been showing the most consistency and the WRF -NMM I would reckon also, so perhaps somewhere in between the two leaning towards the ECM.










Rainfall wise agreement in the SW getting the most rainfall. Met Eireanns prediction of 30 to 40mm with higher totals in uplands at this stage would look right to me.

JanuarySnowstor

Looks a very potent system for the South coast. Pretty strong chance it will be named and if current trends persist rightly so!!

M.T. Cranium

What name can we expect if so?

Meteorite58

I think it is the first storm name off the list ' Atiyah'.

Certainly looks more potent wind wise for parts of the UK and France.

refusetolose

i know this fellas not held in high regard around here but here's his take on it

https://twitter.com/JointCyclone/status/1190010053530664973

dsmythy

They describe it as a subtropical storm in a later update of theirs. They should probably stick to their interest in storms much further south.

Meteorite58

Models in fairly broad agreement now of track showing the strongest winds staying off shore, windy along coasts , Kerry the windiest for a time but not looking too excessive. Rainfall totals back a tad in the SW as the Low tracks a bit further South, have increased a bit for the West.

dsmythy

South Coast UK getting a good go there. Definitely getting named. Prepare yourself for the comments about 'what storm'.

Storm 10

Wind update from the BBC shipping forecast wonder how it will be near the Coasts

Gale warning
Issued: 09:56 (UTC) on Fri 1 Nov 2019
Westerly severe gale force 9 increasing violent storm force 11 later
Wind Southwest 5 to 7, veering west gale 8 to storm 10.Sea state Rough or very rough, becoming high or very high later.Weather Rain at times.VisibilityModerate or poor.

Oscar Bravo

Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick

From Friday afternoon to midnight on Saturday night, rainfall amounts of 30 to 60 mm with a risk of spot flooding. Highest amounts will be in Co. Kerry, especially in mountainous areas.

Valid: Friday 01 November 2019 12:00 to Saturday 02 November 2019 23:59



Status: YellowWind warning for Wexford, Cork, Kerry and Waterford

Overnight, West to southwest winds, veering northwesterly, will reach mean speeds of 50 to 65 km/h with gusts of 90 to 110 Km/h, and higher in coastal and mountainous areas of Kerry and Cork

Valid: Friday 01 November 2019 23:00 to Saturday 02 November 2019 06:00

Issued: Friday 01 November 2019 10:00

Meteorite58

Mod Note: Please stay on topic this thread is not for debating the validity of yellow warnings or if they should have dedicated threads.

km79

Galway no longer on met warning

The_Outsider

Glad this one missed us.
SW UK and NW France get it on the chin with 130kmh+ gusts.....

https://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/windstorm-into-england-and-france-tomorrow-mk/

JanuarySnowstor

Looks damaging on South coast to me
12zs rolling shortly

Storm 10

End of the World in Galway very dark absolutely lashing rain here, really miss the ME rain radar today.

Rock Lesnar

Storm 10 wrote: »

End of the World in Galway very dark absolutely lashing rain here, really miss the ME rain radar today.

Same here in meath, dark, wet and miserable

Mortelaro

Wet evening in Arklow
8.6mm so far

r93kaey5p2izun

I just love evenings like this! Fairly heavy rain now for the past hour in Lucan. Hopefully it will put a stop to the bangers, and I hope it's down for the weekend. I was off today but I'll be working outside tomorrow and I really enjoy being out in the rain. We just don't get enough of it here.

M.T. Cranium

This is looking more like an orange alert situation for Cork as the track of the low will interact with the high terrain in west Munster to funnel in very strong southerly winds overnight. That could have flooding implications around high tides. Would not be surprised if Roches Point gusts over 65 knots (around midnight). Then those stormy conditions will rapidly spread to Waterford and parts of Wexford before it all eases off later in the night. Winds will veer around rapidly to westerly then northwesterly, still quite strong but not as amplified so gusts to 55 knots before easing further.

Be on high alert anywhere near the south coast but especially around Kinsale, Cobh areas.

Sharp northern cutoff to wind damage potential should largely spare Limerick but all of Kerry, Cork and Waterford could see wind damage in places tonight. Southwest Clare probably included also, and a few parts of west Limerick.

JanuarySnowstor

Yes would agree MT right on the south coast could well see serious gusts soon after midnight

Storm 10

Terrible night in Galway still lashing rain with strong wind gusts

pad199207

Teeming down in Kildare now. 11mm in the gauge

Meteorite58

pad199207 wrote: »

Teeming down in Kildare now. 11mm in the gauge

Just 7mm here near Tralee so far, stopped for the moment, the heaviest rain for here would seem to be in the early hours , plenty more to come.

Chris_5339762

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Be on high alert anywhere near the south coast but especially around Kinsale, Cobh areas.

I'm in Cobh and it'll be interesting to see what happens.... most of the models seemed to keep the worst-of-the-worst a little offshore but 20 miles in the error and its on top of us. And all of the storms do generally, in my experience, tend to shift a bit north from the models...


....and I need to drive to Galway at 730am tomorrow morning!

JanuarySnowstor

Near Cobh here too. If it does hit looks like 12 to 4am should be clearing by the morning.
I've a feeling it could nudge North too though it's still calm enough out

SeaBreezes

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

This is looking more like an orange alert situation for Cork as the track of the low will interact with the high terrain in west Munster to funnel in very strong southerly winds overnight. That could have flooding implications around high tides. Would not be surprised if Roches Point gusts over 65 knots (around midnight). Then those stormy conditions will rapidly spread to Waterford and parts of Wexford before it all eases off later in the night. Winds will veer around rapidly to westerly then northwesterly, still quite strong but not as amplified so gusts to 55 knots before easing further.

Be on high alert anywhere near the south coast but especially around Kinsale, Cobh areas.

Sharp northern cutoff to wind damage potential should largely spare Limerick but all of Kerry, Cork and Waterford could see wind damage in places tonight. Southwest Clare probably included also, and a few parts of west Limerick.

Thank you MT just took down the trampoline net as I hadn't realised we would get the wind that severe in Kinsale

JanuarySnowstor

Icon is a total miss on its latest run.
Gfs rolling shortly

JanuarySnowstor

The 18z gfs is more or less a miss too.
Nothing to see here.....along

Chris_5339762

Slight shift south on the 18z GFS.... now there is no wind in Cobh at all at 3am.

Red warning (or the equivalent) for Devon/Cornwall? Thats getting a direct hit.

Kermit.de.frog

I wouldn't be all snug in bed just yet on the south west coast.

This is a really marginal situation, single digit miles in the difference.

pauldry

Re rainfall warning I know theyr ignoring the North but Sligo has had 11mm so far and rains only beginning to get going. Well easily get 30mm

Ballyhaise too getting a lot of rain as is a lot of Ulster.

Weather forecast after the news was a bit out of date if you ask me

Storm 10

Looking at the radar I think they got the warnings wrong certainly coming down in the North

uck51js9zml2yt

Nothing of note on the SW.

weisses

Storm 10 wrote: »

Looking at the radar I think they got the warnings wrong certainly coming down in the North

At least you have radar

pauldry

Ya. Why would we need a radar for half the country in the most weather obsessed country in the world. Even my rain gauge is working better than the Shannon radar. And it only cost 60 quid.

At least Met Eireann got all the weather wrong so we need not worry about loss of radar signal.

16mm in Sligo now but less intense rain now so we may not reach 30mm. Gardens flooded though since most of that 16mm has fallen in 4 hours

Storm 10

17.69 mm of rain recorded at my station in Galway up to midnight and we were taken off the Yellow warning, going by no postings from the South I guess that Amber wind warning did not happen, no sparks showing up anywhere

Graces7

Wild awakening out here; deluges borne on strong gusts. Been a long while since I could take an early walk. west mayo offshore

Gaoth Laidir

The highest gust in the UK so far has been 133 km/h (71 knots) at Plymouth (50 m amsl) between 0700-0800 am.

https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&state=United+K&osum=no&fmt=html&ord=REV&ano=2019&mes=11&day=02&hora=08&ndays=1&Send=send

Neddyusa

Bizarre looking rotation on that front!

Never seen any move with such a straight edge in that direction on radar before

pauldry

22mm of rain in Sligo since start of rain yesterday

Rain losing intensity now so just November drizzle for the day

Harry Palmr

It's wet alright - tipping down with gusto but the wind has failed to materialise

SleetAndSnow

Not raining atm in cork city but some strong gusts of wind. Leaves blowing everywhere! Could be some slippy roads if driving.

Storm 10

27.64 mm rain in Galway since yesterday at my station

highdef

Anyone living in Birr? Of all the decent sized towns that have been stuck under the heaviest of the quasi stationary band of heavy rain, Birr looks to be within the heaviest sustained rain the longest, going by met Eireann radar.

Doctors room ghost

Storm 10 wrote: »

27.64 mm rain in Galway since yesterday at my station

It’s non stop the fcuker

sparrowcar

Rain forecast downgraded and delayed for dublin. Was moderate rain from 1400 onwards downgraded to light rain from 1600. Lovely morning here so far.

Meteorite58

10 min avg winds 34 km/h WNW here near Tralee, Highest gust 68 km/h 09.00

17mm rainfall for event so far

Bar 979.1hPa Rising Slowly

Low of 973.2hPa between 01.00 and 02.00

Big blustery showers moving through this morning, with light rain in between.

Graces7

Went back to sleep and the yellow warning sneaked up country .. Dark and deluging. west mayo offshore island

sryanbruen

highdef wrote: »

Anyone living in Birr? Of all the decent sized towns that have been stuck under the heaviest of the quasi stationary band of heavy rain, Birr looks to be within the heaviest sustained rain the longest, going by met Eireann radar.

16.5mm at Gurteen today so far according to UKMO WOW which is close enough to Birr with 12.5mm yesterday.

Storm 10

So ME warnings for heavy rain for SouthernCounties until midnight tonight did not happen now Galway is back in the mix, did the wind storm happen ???

igCorcaigh

Storm 10 wrote: »

So ME warnings for heavy rain for SouthernCounties until midnight tonight did not happen now Galway is back in the mix, did the wind storm happen ???

Seems the wind storm headed to SW England.
Should have been an Amber warning for them by the sounds of things. Only a Yellow was issued.