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Rainfall / Wind warnings : Fri 1st - Sat 2nd Nov 2019

  • 31-10-2019 9:30pm
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Thought a thread worthy as could get some high rainfall totals coupled with strong winds Fri 1st into Sat 2nd.

    Can amend title if wind warnings are added.






    IMO ECM 12Z is showing about the middle ground for wind speeds early Sat morning into the day. Currently showing the strongest winds on the Kerry / W Cork coasts, gusting up to about 100 or 110 km/h and 70 to 90 km/h overland in the SW for a time , blustery day to follow in the SW and along coasts.

    EURO 4 and ICON showing it stronger as does the WRF -NMM surprisingly. ARPEGEE shows it weaker , keeping most of the winds off shore.

    So ECM to me has been showing the most consistency and the WRF -NMM I would reckon also, so perhaps somewhere in between the two leaning towards the ECM.

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    Rainfall wise agreement in the SW getting the most rainfall. Met Eireanns prediction of 30 to 40mm with higher totals in uplands at this stage would look right to me.

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    Looks a very potent system for the South coast. Pretty strong chance it will be named and if current trends persist rightly so!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,210 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    What name can we expect if so?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    I think it is the first storm name off the list ' Atiyah'.

    Certainly looks more potent wind wise for parts of the UK and France.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,549 ✭✭✭ refusetolose


    i know this fellas not held in high regard around here but here's his take on it

    https://twitter.com/JointCyclone/status/1190010053530664973


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,403 ✭✭✭✭ dsmythy


    They describe it as a subtropical storm in a later update of theirs. They should probably stick to their interest in storms much further south.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Models in fairly broad agreement now of track showing the strongest winds staying off shore, windy along coasts , Kerry the windiest for a time but not looking too excessive. Rainfall totals back a tad in the SW as the Low tracks a bit further South, have increased a bit for the West.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,403 ✭✭✭✭ dsmythy


    South Coast UK getting a good go there. Definitely getting named. Prepare yourself for the comments about 'what storm'.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,454 ✭✭✭ Storm 10


    Wind update from the BBC shipping forecast wonder how it will be near the Coasts

    Gale warning
    Issued: 09:56 (UTC) on Fri 1 Nov 2019
    Westerly severe gale force 9 increasing violent storm force 11 later
    Wind Southwest 5 to 7, veering west gale 8 to storm 10.Sea state Rough or very rough, becoming high or very high later.Weather Rain at times.VisibilityModerate or poor.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,393 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick

    From Friday afternoon to midnight on Saturday night, rainfall amounts of 30 to 60 mm with a risk of spot flooding. Highest amounts will be in Co. Kerry, especially in mountainous areas.

    Valid: Friday 01 November 2019 12:00 to Saturday 02 November 2019 23:59



    Status: YellowWind warning for Wexford, Cork, Kerry and Waterford

    Overnight, West to southwest winds, veering northwesterly, will reach mean speeds of 50 to 65 km/h with gusts of 90 to 110 Km/h, and higher in coastal and mountainous areas of Kerry and Cork

    Valid: Friday 01 November 2019 23:00 to Saturday 02 November 2019 06:00

    Issued: Friday 01 November 2019 10:00


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Mod Note: Please stay on topic this thread is not for debating the validity of yellow warnings or if they should have dedicated threads.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 47,643 ✭✭✭✭ km79


    Galway no longer on met warning


  • Registered Users Posts: 45 ✭✭✭ The_Outsider


    Glad this one missed us.
    SW UK and NW France get it on the chin with 130kmh+ gusts.....

    https://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/windstorm-into-england-and-france-tomorrow-mk/


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    Looks damaging on South coast to me
    12zs rolling shortly


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,454 ✭✭✭ Storm 10


    End of the World in Galway very dark absolutely lashing rain here, really miss the ME rain radar today.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,836 ✭✭✭✭ Rock Lesnar


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    End of the World in Galway very dark absolutely lashing rain here, really miss the ME rain radar today.

    Same here in meath, dark, wet and miserable


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭ Mortelaro


    Wet evening in Arklow
    8.6mm so far


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,962 ✭✭✭ Chloe Sharp Sister


    I just love evenings like this! Fairly heavy rain now for the past hour in Lucan. Hopefully it will put a stop to the bangers, and I hope it's down for the weekend. I was off today but I'll be working outside tomorrow and I really enjoy being out in the rain. We just don't get enough of it here.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,210 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    This is looking more like an orange alert situation for Cork as the track of the low will interact with the high terrain in west Munster to funnel in very strong southerly winds overnight. That could have flooding implications around high tides. Would not be surprised if Roches Point gusts over 65 knots (around midnight). Then those stormy conditions will rapidly spread to Waterford and parts of Wexford before it all eases off later in the night. Winds will veer around rapidly to westerly then northwesterly, still quite strong but not as amplified so gusts to 55 knots before easing further.

    Be on high alert anywhere near the south coast but especially around Kinsale, Cobh areas.

    Sharp northern cutoff to wind damage potential should largely spare Limerick but all of Kerry, Cork and Waterford could see wind damage in places tonight. Southwest Clare probably included also, and a few parts of west Limerick.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    Yes would agree MT right on the south coast could well see serious gusts soon after midnight


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,454 ✭✭✭ Storm 10


    Terrible night in Galway still lashing rain with strong wind gusts


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,447 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    Teeming down in Kildare now. 11mm in the gauge


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Teeming down in Kildare now. 11mm in the gauge

    Just 7mm here near Tralee so far, stopped for the moment, the heaviest rain for here would seem to be in the early hours , plenty more to come.


    anim_ldg9.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,980 ✭✭✭ Chris_5339762



    Be on high alert anywhere near the south coast but especially around Kinsale, Cobh areas.


    I'm in Cobh and it'll be interesting to see what happens.... most of the models seemed to keep the worst-of-the-worst a little offshore but 20 miles in the error and its on top of us. And all of the storms do generally, in my experience, tend to shift a bit north from the models...


    ....and I need to drive to Galway at 730am tomorrow morning!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    Near Cobh here too. If it does hit looks like 12 to 4am should be clearing by the morning.
    I've a feeling it could nudge North too though it's still calm enough out


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,498 ✭✭✭ SeaBreezes


    This is looking more like an orange alert situation for Cork as the track of the low will interact with the high terrain in west Munster to funnel in very strong southerly winds overnight. That could have flooding implications around high tides. Would not be surprised if Roches Point gusts over 65 knots (around midnight). Then those stormy conditions will rapidly spread to Waterford and parts of Wexford before it all eases off later in the night. Winds will veer around rapidly to westerly then northwesterly, still quite strong but not as amplified so gusts to 55 knots before easing further.

    Be on high alert anywhere near the south coast but especially around Kinsale, Cobh areas.

    Sharp northern cutoff to wind damage potential should largely spare Limerick but all of Kerry, Cork and Waterford could see wind damage in places tonight. Southwest Clare probably included also, and a few parts of west Limerick.

    Thank you MT just took down the trampoline net as I hadn't realised we would get the wind that severe in Kinsale


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    Icon is a total miss on its latest run.
    Gfs rolling shortly


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    The 18z gfs is more or less a miss too.
    Nothing to see here.....along


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,980 ✭✭✭ Chris_5339762


    Slight shift south on the 18z GFS.... now there is no wind in Cobh at all at 3am.

    Red warning (or the equivalent) for Devon/Cornwall? Thats getting a direct hit.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    I wouldn't be all snug in bed just yet on the south west coast.

    This is a really marginal situation, single digit miles in the difference.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Re rainfall warning I know theyr ignoring the North but Sligo has had 11mm so far and rains only beginning to get going. Well easily get 30mm

    Ballyhaise too getting a lot of rain as is a lot of Ulster.

    Weather forecast after the news was a bit out of date if you ask me


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