Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Certainly, the Britain Elects poll tracker has the average lead down to 8.6%:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1194569570520051712

The pundits reckon the Tories need 10%+ in order to be in with a shout of a majority, so this is not necessarily good for them.

All to play for of course in the next month.

Enzokk

I still see posters are putting their faith in polls, I do wonder how a poll was commissioned so quickly after the Farage pledge and no other new information. It makes sense the Tories would increase support when they are the Brexit party and if you want Brexit then they are the only option if there is no Brexit Party.

As for the campaign, I wonder how it will go for Johnson when you see clips like this,

https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/1194606518999683072?s=20

That is him being confronted at a press opportunity, and here he is "helping" with the floods,

https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/1194608054211354632?s=20

Let us not forget they haven't even released their manifesto yet.

And in some epic trolling, I wonder if Jo Maugham will find cause for those that paid to be Brexit Party candidates.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1194606419624046593?s=20

I was wondering what outcomes is possible with this election. I see only 4 realistically.

1. Tory majority, Brexit happens and depends on the plan either a hard Brexit in 2021 or another extension to negotiate the FTA. This depends on the size of the majority, if he goes for a clean break is there enough moderate Tories to stop it, like now, or there is enough headbangers to drive the car off the cliff.

2. Tory minority government with DUP support. But will the DUP support the Tories after being thrown in front of the bus? Those are the 2 options for a Johnson PM continuation. He will not get any other parties to form a government with him and I doubt the Brexit Party gets any MPs at all.

3. Remain coalition, so a Labour minority with the SNP and or Lib Dems and other parties to support them. That means a second referendum around summer time next year and either Brexit or revoke. After that has been done who knows if the parties will continue working together.

4. Labour majority, second referendum and revoke or Brexit in summer but a return to some stability at least as the Brexit deal will be known and the FTA to follow will be laid out as well.

So it seems clear to me what is the best option for the UK, and it is with the Tories losing. If they return to power, whether by majority or coalition, it will not end anything at all. But the shining light if Johnson wins is that he will then own everything. Corbyn should be gone as well as he would have lost 2 election campaigns.

Worst option? Minority Tory government, he will have to go back to the EU and ask for the May backstop to get the DUP on board and even then the DUP still rejected it. That is before the economic impacts reports come out to say how much worse his deal will be and he will then lose some of the very few moderates the party still has.

robindch

Fourteen big brains weigh in on Brexit and find it wanting:

https://www.politico.eu/article/14-big-brains-on-brexit/

ex:

Schrodinger wrote:

Is Britain inside or outside the European Union? For now, like my poor cat in its box, it's both dead and alive. The country will be simultaneously Brexin and Brexout for some time yet. Do you really want to force the issue by opening the box and peering inside?

Capt'n Midnight

Nody wrote: »

Another Brexit win!

Then again it's Elon so how long that factory will be around can be discussed but I'm sure an German manufacturer will happily take it over when Tesla goes belly up.

SpaceX has revenue of about $2.5Bn a year and launched another 60 broadband satellites yesterday as part of a global project to fund other enterprises.

Compare that to the Irish National Broadband Plan budget of €3Bn.






The UK will be spending lots too as part of the Superfast Broadband Programme

But the UK has a magic money tree.
The Tories have found another £18Bn for investment

No wait its £9Bn because they are doubling the existing amount.

Germany is spending €100Bn on R&D *



* obviously not all of that is from the Govt, but that's par for the course for Brexit fact checking.

ancapailldorcha

Ok. I've moved the elections posts to that thread. Off topic posts have been deleted.

liamtech

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50413638

General election 2019: Don't give up on stopping Brexit - Tusk

Fair play to him

An Claidheamh

Tusk, Barnier and Juncker would be great candidates for the Freedom of Dublin.

They've done more to combat the rise of the far right (British neo-imperialists, French nationalists, Russian bullies) than any of the professional kidult complainers that would oppose it.

I don't see how any of the main parties would not agree.

Kermit.de.frog

Tories on track for circa 110 seat majority according to poll tomorrow in the Daily Telegraph.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/13/tories-popular-among-working-class-rich-new-general-election/

The Conservative Party now has more support among working-class voters than the upper classes, according to a new poll which predicts that Boris Johnson will win a 110-seat majority at the general election.

The exclusive Savanta ComRes survey for The Daily Telegraph found that 43 per cent of voters from the DE social group are prepared to vote for the Tories on December 12, up from 35 per cent in 2017. The poll found 40 per cent of AB voters plan to back Mr Johnson compared to 46 per cent who were prepared to vote for Theresa May two years ago.

If we truly want to bring an end to the immediate border risks for Ireland we need a strong tory majority to carry through the deal that has been done.

Anything less puts a hard land border right back on the table.

Remainers are no friends of Ireland either. They have proven in the last couple of months that they see us as no more than a football for their own agenda. I'd argue even more so than leave politicians.

Initially it was you could never put physical checks on the island of Ireland - now it's you can never put checks in the Irish sea. Whatever is the most obstructive to Brexit basically. Nothing to do with people living here.

stefanovich

liamtech wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50413638



Fair play to him

Undermining another country's democracy. Fair play indeed.

fash

stefanovich wrote: »

Undermining another country's democracy. Fair play indeed.

Do you think that about trump's various pronouncements on brexit, farage and Johnson?
I strongly suspect your outrage is conditional on who makes the intervention - am I wrong?

stefanovich

fash wrote: »

Do you think that about trump's various pronouncements on brexit, farage and Johnson?
I strongly suspect your outrage is conditional on who makes the intervention - am I wrong?

No. The difference is that Trump is supporting the outcome of a fair referendum while Tusk is dismissing it. Trump is supporting democracy. Tusk is dismissing it.

Nody

stefanovich wrote: »

Undermining another country's democracy. Fair play indeed.

Exactly how has he undermined it? He has stated an OPINION and nothing more; unlike for example Farage (taking bribes), Johnson (lying on the bus, lying in the newspaper articles he wrote) etc. But if that's considered undermining democracy you have to been up in arms about Farage's Trump interview where Trump was saying how hard it would be for a trade deal with the current deal etc. That's a state official directly trying undermine the sitting PM's policy as well as directing people to vote on a direct competitor (Farage). Care to link to your posts of calling it out? I'll wait here listening to the crickets in the mean time.

Christy42

stefanovich wrote: »

No. The difference is that Trump is supporting the outcome of a fair referendum while Tusk is dismissing it. Trump is supporting democracy. Tusk is dismissing it.

Tusk does not dismiss it. He believes it is a mistake and the British public should change their minds. Is the British public not allowed change their minds? Is a man not allowed have a negative opinion on Brexit?

Weren't the leave finances dodgy as hell while we are talking of fair?

Trump is supporting a trade deal where he can dictate all the terms and conditions. Trump is also very dismissed May's deal. Surely that was dismissing democracy as that failing has extended the UK's involvement in the EU?

listermint

stefanovich wrote: »

No. The difference is that Trump is supporting the outcome of a fair referendum while Tusk is dismissing it. Trump is supporting democracy. Tusk is dismissing it.

By what publicly backing a particular party and spreading scare stories about the opposition parties.

Yeah trump's a real solid guy.

Some would say slimey self interested narcistist . Some would say

stefanovich

stefanovich wrote: »

No. The difference is that Trump is supporting the outcome of a fair referendum while Tusk is dismissing it. Trump is supporting democracy. Tusk is dismissing it.

A fair referendum?

No one believes that.

stefanovich

Christy42 wrote: »

Tusk does not dismiss it. He believes it is a mistake and the British public should change their minds. Is the British public not allowed change their minds? Is a man not allowed have a negative opinion on Brexit?

Once in a lifetime vote. Brexit hasn't happened yet. Once Brexit has happened I am sure the "Liberal" "Democrats" will be seeking to reapply for access.

Igotadose

stefanovich wrote: »

Once in a lifetime vote.

There's a provision for such in the UK constitution? How surprising.

stefanovich

Deleted User wrote: »

A fair referendum?

No one believes that.

Every voter has a duty to understand what they are voting for. The ballots were cast. This is the result.

So curious how the Irish have turned. I remember the anger when Lisbon treaty was forced upon us. I question the result too. Shenanigans!

stefanovich

Igotadose wrote: »

There's a provision for such in the UK constitution? How surprising.

There is no written constitution. It is inferred from legacy decisions. You want to undo the result of a referendum before it is acted upon? Unheard of.

Igotadose

stefanovich wrote: »

There is no written constitution. It is inferred from legacy decisions. You want to undo the result of a referendum before it is acted upon? Unheard of.

So, what are the rules around non-binding referendums that are not being followed here?

stefanovich

Igotadose wrote: »

So, what are the rules around non-binding referendums that are not being followed here?

Generally when a referendum is called it is not supposed to be a repeat affair. How many times do we repeat? 3 is fair I suppose?

The only reason this has not concluded sooner is because the remainers have used every tactic in the book to block it because they do not like the result.

They wanted to avoid a general election because they know Parliament is not representative of the people they are supposed to represent.

This is banana republic style politics. Shameful.

ambro25

stefanovich wrote: »

There is no written constitution. It is inferred from legacy decisions. You want to undo the result of a referendum before it is acted upon? Unheard of.

It is a well-known truism, that only imbeciles never change their mind.

Happily, the strength of the #RemainerNow movement shows that not all Leave voters are imbeciles.

Letwin_Larry

not sure which forum thread this belongs in? Brexit or GE? possibly both.

Yet another unwelcome, cack handed, and probably counter-productive intervention by the donald.

he no doubt thinks he's clever, but in reality he is quite silly imo. personally if i were a waivering voter, this meddling by an undemocratic Eurocrat would firmly push me to vote for a Leave candidate.
well done Mr. Tusk. you are doing The Tory's work for them!

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/donald-tusk-brexit-european-council-speech-poland-a9202291.html

stefanovich

ambro25 wrote: »

It is a well-known truism, that only imbeciles never change their mind.

Happily, the strength of the #RemainerNow movement shows that not all Leave voters are imbeciles.

We'll see in a month. I reckon the humble pie will be dished out here. I'm out for a while before you all goad me into getting banned. I get more sarcastic and annoyed.

Dytalus

stefanovich wrote: »

Generally when a referendum is called it is not supposed to be a repeat affair. How many times do we repeat? 3 is fair I suppose?

Whenever circumstances change substantially seems fair. We voted twice on divorce. We voted quite a few times on changing the 8th amendment (article 43.3.3°), with referendums related to altering it voted against in 1992 (12th Amendment) and 2002 (25th Amendment), and two approved in 1992 (13th and 14th Amendments) before finally voting to remove it with the 36th amendment. Circumstances change, and peoples mind can change as they find out more information.

Like the reveal that the Leave campaigners broke the law in campaigning, and the statement that had the referendum been legally binding then it would have been nullified and forced to go again precisely because of that law breaking.

Or the reveal that "easiest deal in history", "£350 million to the NHS a week", "No leaving the Single Market" were all outright lies that they pushed to get the result they wanted.

Or the simple fact that getting a good deal for the UK has proven impossible - every deal they've come back with has been stated (by Leavers, even) to be worse than remaining in the EU. What's so bad about going back to the people and saying "we're sorry, we couldn't get the deal we promised. Do you still want Brexit?"

Nody

stefanovich wrote: »

We'll see in a month. I reckon the humble pie will be dished out here. I'm out for a while before you all goad me into getting banned. I get more sarcastic and annoyed.

Once again you're reading things the wrong way and assuming you can mind read everyone who disagrees with you. You see I'm 110% behind Farage on his EU deal position; I would love UK to leave on the hardest possible Brexit without a deal. The difference being why; in Farage's case because that's what he's paid to do while in my case it's to shut up the Brexiteers the fastest way possible by crashing their mirage into a concrete wall of reality. Once the Brexit dreams come crashing down like the fall out of Hiroshima bomb it will be to the UK economy (in case of a hard crash out scenario) we can start having an actual mature factual discussion; until then it's going to be vague statements and mumbled bendy banana laws until the cows come home.

gooch2k9

stefanovich wrote: »

Generally when a referendum is called it is not supposed to be a repeat affair. How many times do we repeat? 3 is fair I suppose?

The only reason this has not concluded sooner is because the remainers have used every tactic in the book to block it because they do not like the result.

They wanted to avoid a general election because they know Parliament is not representative of the people they are supposed to represent.

This is banana republic style politics. Shameful.

Johnson pulled his own deal because Parliament wanted to give it proper scrutiny. I'd say that's the right way to do politics myself.

robinph

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

not sure which forum thread this belongs in? Brexit or GE? possibly both.

Yet another unwelcome, cack handed, and probably counter-productive intervention by the donald.

he no doubt thinks he's clever, but in reality he is quite silly imo. personally if i were a waivering voter, this meddling by an undemocratic Eurocrat would firmly push me to vote for a Leave candidate.
well done Mr. Tusk. you are doing The Tory's work for them!

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/donald-tusk-brexit-european-council-speech-poland-a9202291.html

If you were a leave voter reading that then all you are going to be seeing is that Tusk said something and therefore it must be terrible so not really sure that is the target audience for his statement. As proven by the fact that you think what he said is going to help the cause of Brexit.

Whereas someone else will see that there are people in the EU who still hope that the rest of the UK will come to their senses and call the whole mad thing off, and that the remainers shouldn't give up hope yet. They are the intended audience.

He's not making those comments thinking that he'll be able to change the mind of Farage.

ambro25

stefanovich wrote: »

We'll see in a month. I reckon the humble pie will be dished out here. I'm out for a while before you all goad me into getting banned. I get more sarcastic and annoyed.

Maybe it will, maybe it won't, who outside the UK cares at this point of the Brexit farce?

Certainly not me. I'm just here for, amongst other points of interest (especially chronicling a death of UK plc foretold), bashing dogmatic Leavers, which I distinguish from constructive Leavers: those very few with cogent arguments for life outside EU membership...I've let the last 4 years convince me that rocking horse poo is more common than these types.

Now dogmatic Leavers, they are those who, in this day and age, still hold a 3+ year old advisory referendum to be a binding instruction upon elected representatives (to be distinguished from delegates), which must be enacted no-matter-what before a democratic change of mind may be permitted: a point of view demonstrating, IMHO, abject ignorance of British democratic principles, systems and institutions; of European membership principles, legal bases and their workings; and of geopolitical and international trade interrelationships in the XXIst century.

What happens in a month's time will happen, but rest assured that no humble pie will be eaten here, regardless of the GE result and the UK Brexiting or not: only UK business pie. It's yummy.

Seth Brundle

stefanovich wrote: »

Generally when a referendum is called it is not supposed to be a repeat affair. How many times do we repeat? 3 is fair I suppose?

So the UK should not have had a referendum in 2016 is what you're saying, given the 1975 referendum?