The Strike is over. What happens now?

Cavanjack

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I think the price rise will come harder and faster than lads think. Processor's cannot use restricted feedlot beef for Chinese market. Kill jumped something savage last week. Normally processor's slow down throughput from Dec 1st until Christmas week.due to white meat. This may not happen this year.

However the price rise will be conditional on type of cattle. U 30 months cattle from unrestricted herds may see a sharp rise in price. Bulls U 24 months may well be in serious demand this year. Other cattle may not see same price jump.

Processor's feedlots and restricted feedlots could be redundant this year

I hope you are right regarding the bulls and the sooner the better. Won’t be holding my breath though.

Robson99

MIKEKC wrote: »

Show us proof that the base price would have been e3.20

I have no proof but a blind man could see it was heading that way...same lads saying it would never drop below 3.75....well it did. But some of ye would happily keep taking kicks in the hole from Larry rather than standing up for yeer selves....though I get the feeling one or two on here were getting more than the ordinary finisher and it's hurting them now that Larry doesn't give a toss about them

Panch18

Danzy wrote: »

There are factories that kill in a day what all of Ireland kill in a week.

A backlog of 100k will not have a significant or more than a week impact outside of Ireland, across Europe.

You’re totally missing the point!!

Panch18

Jjjack77 wrote: »

People saying beef would be 3.20 are just trying to justify the strike, most people realize dat the strike done a lot more damage than good

This is it in a nutshell

Jb1989

Panch18 wrote: »

This is it in a nutshell

Not being awkward but The nutshell has 2 halves, no one can answer what may have actually happened down the line, the strikes were tried and changes made, be them, good, bad or indifferent.

Bass Reeves

Panch18 wrote: »

There was NO dramatic rise in the kill last week

It is consistent with the kill for the last couple of months, bar the week before last where the kill dropped 4 or 5k head, and this was probably due to the bank holiday

Sorry I mis read it in the Journal yesterday.

K.G. wrote: »

Do ye remember lads were saying that feedlots weren't buying ,that was emptying and resetting the clock as tb free feedlots

I posted about that yesterday in the 2020 dairy calf thread.

mf240 wrote: »

Be very hard for big feedlots to remain clear though, sheer numbers mean the chance of having a doubtfull are high.

Feedlots will have to specialize, no longer can they mix, cull cows with younger cattle. It will not just effect feedlot cattle it will effect restricted herds. In the finishing game it easy to get restricted. There are lads that go from killing heifers in the Autumn, to having AA/He bullocks after them, then FR bulls in May, then cull cows and Fr bullocks after then moving on to 18-20 months bulls in autumn. If they get restricted they will be treated the same as a restricted feedlot IMO. Most finishers have cows in the system at some stage.

Base price wrote: »

The other point to note is that the cull/empty (P) dairy cow numbers haven't really come on stream from the parlours yet. Farmers don't have a fodder shortage like last year and are continuing to milk them. Factory prices are poor for same and as a dairy farmer said to me they are putting euro's into the milk tank.

Dairy cows may not come on stream as strong as last year. The perceived fodder shortage last autumn caused lads to cull very heavy, these same farmers may not cull as heavy this year. As well 2/kg or less will certainly effect there sentiment.

Jjjack77 wrote: »

People saying beef would be 3.20 are just trying to justify the strike, most people realize dat the strike done a lot more damage than good

There are lads here blaming everything to do with present price on BP. It not as if we were not below the present price(for some anyway) when it started and that was late July. I remember some lads posting here that are now saying it should be higher stating that you never see a price rise in the Autumn in Ireland.

The other bee in there bonnet is the timing. the timing was perfect. the issue was because of pressure BP went into talks in early August and removed the pickets. There was a delay starting talks and it took three weeks to clse down processors again. Next time there will be no removal of pickets before talk start. Farmers were unlucky with the Autumn as well. Timing was perfect but instead of it being done and dusted after 3-4 weeks it was an 8-9 week affair. But then again if the lads getting the extra 20c/kg supported it it would have been over by mid August

Panch18

I think if there are more pickets that the majority of farmers won’t be as obedient and the pickets will be broken en mass

Now that fella finishing cattle have seen the damage that the strike did to them

wrangler

Panch18 wrote: »

I think if there are more pickets that the majority of farmers won’t be as obedient and the pickets will be broken en mass

Now that fella finishing cattle have seen the damage that the strike did to them

I was going to say that too, but thought better of it but guys have told me protestors won't be allowed to stay at the gates the next time, farmers are very bitter. A couple that ran the gauntlet last time claim they won't stop for anyone the next time

Anto_Meath

I have said it here before. There is no point having a strike again, building up a back log of cattle for the factories to clobber us with the second they get a chance, like they are now. Farmers need to be smarter. Let them kill the cattle but dont let them get them out in the fridges or stand together and only provide them with the animals they dont particularly want like P1 grading animals. Sanding outside the gates fighting with your neighbours is no good for the farming industry. I hear lads in the marts at stupid crap like they wouldnt by certain other farmers cattle because of the stance the seller took during the protests... Farmers fell out because of the strike yet factories carry on as normal.

realitykeeper

It`s over. What happens now? I guess the fat lady sings.

wrangler

Anto_Meath wrote: »

I have said it here before. There is no point having a strike again, building up a back log of cattle for the factories to clobber us with the second they get a chance, like they are now. Farmers need to be smarter. Let them kill the cattle but dont let them get them out in the fridges or stand together and only provide them with the animals they dont particularly want like P1 grading animals. Sanding outside the gates fighting with your neighbours is no good for the farming industry. I hear lads in the marts at stupid crap like they wouldnt by certain other farmers cattle because of the stance the seller took during the protests... Farmers fell out because of the strike yet factories carry on as normal.

It's not sustainable for factories to give in to protests, they'd never have a moments peace

Hard Knocks

wrangler wrote: »

It's not sustainable for factories to give in to protests, they'd never have a moments peace

Fair, but the farmer doesn’t deserve to be troded on either

wrangler

Hard Knocks wrote: »

Fair, but the farmer doesn’t deserve to be troded on either

Until we buiid an alternative market we'll never know whether it's the processors that's trodding on us or not, apparently a head honcho in Beef plan has admitted at a public meeting that they got it wrong in that the offal market is not the money spinner they claimed.
It's stupid of farmers to depend on one market and even more stupid to destroy it which is what Beef Plan are doing on social media

boggerman1

wrangler wrote: »

Until we buiid an alternative market we'll never know whether it's the processors that's trodding on us or not, apparently a head honcho in Beef plan has admitted at a public meeting that they got it wrong in that the offal market is not the money spinner they claimed.
It's stupid of farmers to depend on one market and even more stupid to destroy it which is what Beef Plan are doing on social media

Correct.i joined the beef plan's facebook page to see for myself what is being put up on it.replied to the thing about the upcoming tractor run/protest and for what I said I got called a bollix for it.water off a ducks back but it seems you can't criticize them at all.

Hard Knocks

wrangler wrote: »

Until we buiid an alternative market we'll never know whether it's the processors that's trodding on us or not, apparently a head honcho in Beef plan has admitted at a public meeting that they got it wrong in that the offal market is not the money spinner they claimed.
It's stupid of farmers to depend on one market and even more stupid to destroy it which is what Beef Plan are doing on social media

Agree with your point .... but did Someone not post that Larry & Co put barriers in place to stop the live trade to UK, so alternative options are

wrangler

boggerman1 wrote: »

Correct.i joined the beef plan's facebook page to see for myself what is being put up on it.replied to the thing about the upcoming tractor run/protest and for what I said I got called a bollix for it.water off a ducks back but it seems you can't criticize them at all.

There's a fair bit of thuggery on it alright, there must be no mods on it.
Because they're not beef finishers they haven't been exposed to the damage they've caused

Base price

Base price wrote: »

I saw that earlier. I wonder how it will go considering many farmers still have nightmares over getting payment in the past when live shipping to the Italian market re: Garavelli/TLT receivership.
Who is behind it, when do the farmers get paid? Would farmers not be better off selling through their local mart and they can be assured of payment?

Base price wrote: »

I agree about the backlog problems caused by the cluster fook of a protest but least you get paid by the factories and marts.

Base price wrote: »

To avoid confusion and I didn't mean to infer that one organisation was the same as the other. There is a difference between Emerald Isle Beef Producers and Emerald Green (livestock export company) that was put into liquidation a few years ago.

Emerald Isle Beef Producers group was set up recently by Eamonn Corley and other members of the Beef Plan organisation - the fellas who instigated the recent beef factory blockades.

Anyway notwithstanding the above, who pays for the cattle when they are collected from your yard. Many a farmer has been caught on the wrong side of the fence and has to represent cheques in the hope of payment and in some cases in order to establish a paper trail for future litigation.
https://www.farmersjournal.ie/cattle-company-wound-up-in-high-court-184370

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/second-beef-producer-group-in-the-pipeline/

I see that the Beef Plan movement/Emerald Isle have now tried to address farmers concerns over payment on their FB page - they must be reading F&F too along with IFJ, Agriland etc. I will try and copy the post.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/285936028688976/permalink/479184112697499/

ruwithme

Panch18 wrote: »

I think if there are more pickets that the majority of farmers won’t be as obedient and the pickets will be broken en mass

Now that fella finishing cattle have seen the damage that the strike did to them

The next time there's a blockade at factory gates. The owners will immediately lay off staff close there gates and just wait.

They will have alternative sources for meeting demand.

lessons have being learned by the factories,meaning any future strikes in the years ahead will be futile.

Danzy

ruwithme wrote: »

The next time there's a blockade at factory gates. The owners will immediately lay off staff close there gates and just wait.

They will have alternative sources for meeting demand.

lessons have being learned by the factories,meaning any future strikes in the years ahead will be futile.

Wouldn't be certain of that.

Next time they might end up with a Beef industry regulator, just for starters.

That alone will send chills through them.

mf240

Danzy wrote: »

Wouldn't be certain of that.

Next time they might end up with a Beef industry regulator, just for starters.

That alone will send chills through them.

Larry will just buy him

yosemitesam1

Danzy wrote: »

Wouldn't be certain of that.

Next time they might end up with a Beef industry regulator, just for starters.

That alone will send chills through them.

What could a regulator do? If it tried to force a higher price factories stop buying until farmers beg for price drops

Water John

Regulator can start with one price per grade in each factory for all suppliers. Transparency.

amacca

Water John wrote: »

Transparency.

The lack of transparency is what pisses off a lot of people imo.

They feel like they are being taken for a ride.

Danzy

A regulator could have the grading machines under his sole control and monitored, for starters.

A person with power and authority to enforce leg al requirements is long over due in the beef industry and one the industry will be keen to avoid.

lalababa

Why don't farmers just stop calling the factory procurement agent?? Like WTF? You are getting a bad price-then don't sell. Set yourself up not to sell. Cut numbers for a year, have younger & lesser stock.
WTF is the point in filling one's gills with stock when they are losing money???

kk.man

lalababa wrote: »

Why don't farmers just stop calling the factory procurement agent?? Like WTF? You are getting a bad price-then don't sell. Set yourself up not to sell. Cut numbers for a year, have younger & lesser stock.
WTF is the point in filling one's gills with stock when they are losing money???

You have to go further back the chain to not make those phone calls. When stock are fit they must be moved. Ppl have bills and put food on the table. Not moving stock is not an exact science and the factories know this. The 30 month rule really aided the pigs to the troughs.

amacca

lalababa wrote: »

Why don't farmers just stop calling the factory procurement agent?? Like WTF? You are getting a bad price-then don't sell. Set yourself up not to sell. Cut numbers for a year, have younger & lesser stock.
WTF is the point in filling one's gills with stock when they are losing money???

This is what I will be trying to build more of an element of into the way I do business going forward but

1) Its not worth much of a **** if significant numbers of farmers don't do so as well....because if its just small numbers run it this way prices remain low for a unfeasibly long times to hold the stock comfortably and cost effectively....the amount of time you would have to hold would cost more than the price rise

stock need to be fed, housed during the winter months, looked after if they get sick, tested etc.....all this adds cost and means you need a hell of a price rise to justify holding for long periods of time....+ fit cattle are taking resources from developing cattle

2) your screwed with the 30 month rule as their is a ticking clock on every animal and if you go beyond that the animal becomes devalued so you are under the gun to get stock coming near the limit off...if you feed to being fit months before that limit (more costly than letting the animal come fit at a more leisurely pace - meaning you need a better price to justify it too) and you then have window to hold within the 30 months if prices are low its costing you money maintaining them.....in fact you probably won't maintain them as you can only feed intensively for the last 8-12 weeks afaik....(not sure on that as I don't often pump them before sale - try to get them of grass

normal businesses would insist on a guaranteed margin/contract to be in place before being as willing to give such an undertaking as to produce beef for processors...its just a pity farming isn't a normal business...I think the processors are making an unfair profit with such a dysfunctional set up where farmers can be screwed left right and centre and still nearly have to come back for more (and if they are not making unfair margins then they aren't selling the product properly with the setup they have) .....

Id personally be delighted to see that 30month rule confined to the pits of hell, its the single most option reducing/restrictive thing in producing beef with low cost .....you could even make an argument for its removal or extending it on an environmental basis imo.........How can they go to 48 months in Scotland or is that bull****?

Base price

I wonder did the Chinese come up with the requirement for under 30 month old cattle or did the factories/Bord Bia sell it to them considering that QA is not a requirement.

Danzy

Base price wrote: »

I wonder did the Chinese come up with the requirement for under 30 month old cattle or did the factories/Bord Bia sell it to them considering that QA is not a requirement.

A country where dogs are eaten, pigs were fed straight from the toilet pipe.

I'm going for a Bord Bia sales pitch for 20 bob.

amacca

Danzy wrote: »

A country where dogs are eaten, pigs were fed straight from the toilet pipe.

I'm going for a Bord Bia sales pitch for 20 bob.

If that is the case then they are screwing the people they claim to help.