Population and Migration 2019 - CSO figures

Kermit.de.frog

CSO just released this years figures

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2019/






(click on link at top for full data)

Disappointing to see Irish net migration return. Also slightly less people coming here than last year.

Had expected more a jump in the statistics from last year but I guess we are feeling the housing problems in our demographics now.

Still positive overall though. Population up from 4,857,000 last year to 4,921,000 this year. Population increase in year of 64,500.

Thoughts?

SporadicMan

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

CSO just released this years figures

Still positive overall though. Population up from 4,857,000 last year to 4,921,000 this year. Population increase in year of 64,500.

Thoughts?

Is population increased an unconditionally good thing?

I am quite surprised by how high the 'Rest of World' immigration is when compared with EU. I think people are under the assumption that the vast vast majority of immigration into the country comes from the EU, but not really the case.

Also, the %s around 'Irish' people in the country has become a bit worthless given how trigger happy we are with our passports.

weldoninhio

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

CSO just released this years figures

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2019/






(click on link at top for full data)

Disappointing to see Irish net migration return. Also slightly less people coming here than last year.

Had expected more a jump in the statistics from last year but I guess we are feeling the housing problems in our demographics now.

Still positive overall though. Population up from 4,857,000 last year to 4,921,000 this year. Population increase in year of 64,500.

Thoughts?

What did you find positive about it??

Kermit.de.frog

SporadicMan wrote: »

Is population increased an unconditionally good thing?

If you want your pension paid then yes, yes it is.

Ireland is way under populated so it is very positive to see decent population growth.

Could be better though once more new housing starts coming on stream. That's the biggest factor holding things back in my opinion.

weldoninhio

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If you want your pension paid then yes, yes it is.

Ireland is way under populated so it is very positive to see decent population growth.

Could be better though once more new housing starts coming on stream. That's the biggest factor holding things back in my opinion.

Surely that is dependent on who comes in and if they work?? Otherwise, it would take away from your chances of getting a pension???

Kermit.de.frog

weldoninhio wrote: »

Surely that is dependent on who comes in and if they work?? Otherwise, it would take away from your chances of getting a pension???

You can't have it both ways.

We need more migration to the country because Irish women are not having enough children. It's as blunt as that.

There is no argument to be had unless we all have more children.

Obviously not all will be well meaning workers. Most who come here do work and contribute though and put down roots.

riffmongous

I think the next recession will have a big effect, certainly emigration is going to increase, immigration might depend on Brexit

Kermit.de.frog

In Irish Times (paywalled)

Record employment with 2.3m people at work in Irish economy

Workforce boosted by return of emigrants and influx of foreign nationals

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/record-employment-with-2-3m-people-at-work-in-irish-economy-1.3998675?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Frecord-employment-with-2-3m-people-at-work-in-irish-economy-1.3998675

weldoninhio

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You can't have it both ways.

We need more migration to the country because Irish women are not having enough children. It's as blunt as that.

There is no argument to be had unless we all have more children.

Obviously not all will be well meaning workers. Most who come here do work and contribute though and put down roots.

But having more children is killing the planet apparently. You can't have it both ways. A lot of jobs will be automated in the future. We are seeing it already with self service cashiers, self service garages, self service ordering in McDonalds etc. This is only going to become more widespread, not less.

Kermit.de.frog

One significant problem I see in the stats is that the participation rate in the workforce is just 62.1%.

In 2007 it was 66%.

This is where the debate over the welfare system comes in - whether it is too easy going and generous, whether there are too many welfare traps in the system and whether activation measures are working within the system.

We need to increase the participation rate and a bit more stick than carrot may be needed with jobs going unfilled.

Kermit.de.frog

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If you want your pension paid then yes, yes it is.

Ireland is way under populated so it is very positive to see decent population growth.

Could be better though once more new housing starts coming on stream. That's the biggest factor holding things back in my opinion.

yes, but who pays their pensions?

Overheal

Simply put economies at least western economies are built on growth, from pensions and welfare on up to GDP. Growth isn’t optional in those terms. There’s no legitimate plan for population decline.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/rlydon2/status/1166302762705018880


On population...

https://twitter.com/danobrien20/status/1166292298063339520

https://twitter.com/danobrien20/status/1166292930090475525

OfflerCrocGod

weldoninhio wrote: »

But having more children is killing the planet apparently. You can't have it both ways. A lot of jobs will be automated in the future. We are seeing it already with self service cashiers, self service garages, self service ordering in McDonalds etc. This is only going to become more widespread, not less.

And for all of that we have record employment. We are making more jobs then the ones being lost.

Boggles

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

One significant problem I see in the stats is that the participation rate in the workforce is just 62.1%.

Is that not well above average for the EU?

Kermit.de.frog

Boggles wrote: »

Is that not well above average for the EU?

The average is 59% in the EU but that includes multiple countries like Italy, Greece and Spain for example which historically have lower participation rates particularly among younger people.

We should not be using that standard as it distorts the average.

We need to look more to northern European and UK participation rates which are higher than ours.

Kermit.de.frog

There are more females than males in Ireland.


So they need us more than we need them - all the guys must be doing really well. It's just over one female for each of us on average

Pixel Eater

So 27,000 Irish national immigrated to Ireland and 29,000 emigrated; are these ethnic Irish? They could conceivably be foreign nationals who have obtained Irish citizenship. Does the CSO check this or go by passports alone?

jay0109

OfflerCrocGod wrote: »

And for all of that we have record employment. We are making more jobs then the ones being lost.

Quantity over quality I think

jay0109

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We need more migration to the country because Irish women are not having enough children. It's as blunt as that.

There is no argument to be had unless we all have more children.

How can they be having more than 1 or 2 children when we have designed our tax system so that it discriminates against 1 income households!
That it now takes 2 salaries to afford the mortgage on a modest house in any of the urban areas and even then, you'll be in your 30's before you get to that position.

recedite

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We need more migration to the country because Irish women are not having enough children. It's as blunt as that.

Maybe some govt. incentives would be in order. And some policies to enable families to expand without being financially crippled.

mariaalice

It looks like we are just jogging along nicely, it's very even.

jay0109

mariaalice wrote: »

It looks like we are just jogging along nicely, it's very even.

Let's see what the next census throws up? If I recall correctly, the CSO had to make a big adjustment upwards at the last census to their quarterly figures...turns out there were a lot more immigration into the country then they had previously 'guessed'.
Stunned I was!

Franz Von Peppercorn II

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If you want your pension paid then yes, yes it is.

Ireland is way under populated so it is very positive to see decent population growth.

Could be better though once more new housing starts coming on stream. That's the biggest factor holding things back in my opinion.

The pension argument for present day immigration is spurious as they will in fact be a pension cost, even if they leave and are EU, in future.

The pension argument for future immigration might make sense but the only permanent way to solve the crisis is to increase the retirement age. Unfortunately.

ChikiChiki

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If you want your pension paid then yes, yes it is.

Ireland is way under populated so it is very positive to see decent population growth.

Could be better though once more new housing starts coming on stream. That's the biggest factor holding things back in my opinion.

I agree its a good thing but I cannot see the infrastructure in place to match the rates of migration. We are a very reactive country, not proactive.

Kimsang

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If you want your pension paid then yes, yes it is.

Ireland is way under populated so it is very positive to see decent population growth.

So who pays their pensions? Have you realized your advocating a ponzi scheme?

“We have a finite environment—the planet. Anyone who thinks that you can have infinite growth in a finite environment is either a madman or an economist. "-David Attenborough

Overheal

jay0109 wrote: »

Quantity over quality I think

The gig economy: Uber, Lyft, GrubHub,etc.

Topgear on Dave

jay0109 wrote: »

Quantity over quality I think

I wouldnt be so sure.

Unemployment is very low, my boss was talking about a big project coming up and hiring a few engineers for it.

He's very unsure about where to get them, and the quality of the folks available.

4068ac1elhodqr

Migration will only of use, going forward if it consists of legal, educated and highly skilled workers.
By the 2030's it's estimated 30-40% of current job roles will be lost (due to automation).

Thus it's important to focus on quality over quantity, in this, the 4th industrial reveloution gig-economy.
Skilled workers should be welcomed, however Illegal or mass unskilled migration patterns will cost very serveley indeed.

Many unskilled roles such as waiters, warehousing, bar staff, retail sales and kitchen assistants will see 70% risk of elimination.
Ireland already faces 100,000 job losses from a hard-brexit. C'Tax harmonisation and a looming global recession add further to risks.

Assetbacked

Kristopher Great Signpost wrote: »

Migration will only of use, going forward if it consists of legal, educated and highly skilled workers.
By the 2030's it's estimated 30-40% of current job roles will be lost (due to automation).

Thus it's important to focus on quality over quantity, in this, the 4th industrial reveloution gig-economy.
Skilled workers should be welcomed, however Illegal or mass unskilled migration patterns will cost very serveley indeed.

Many unskilled roles such as waiters, warehousing, bar staff, retail sales and kitchen assistants will see 70% risk of elimination.
Ireland already faces 100,000 job losses from a hard-brexit. C'Tax harmonisation and a looming global recession add further to risks.

To be honest, the last 5 years of "growth" have felt less like growth and more like a recession. The sooner things start to change from the past few years of massively increasing cost of living, the better. There should be absolutely no reason to not continue to reduce income tax or abolish USC in order to start feeding some of the growth to ordinary tax paying workers.

Franz Von Peppercorn II

Kristopher Great Signpost wrote: »

Migration will only of use, going forward if it consists of legal, educated and highly skilled workers.
By the 2030's it's estimated 30-40% of current job roles will be lost (due to automation).

Thus it's important to focus on quality over quantity, in this, the 4th industrial reveloution gig-economy.
Skilled workers should be welcomed, however Illegal or mass unskilled migration patterns will cost very serveley indeed.

Many unskilled roles such as waiters, warehousing, bar staff, retail sales and kitchen assistants will see 70% risk of elimination.
Ireland already faces 100,000 job losses from a hard-brexit. C'Tax harmonisation and a looming global recession add further to risks.

Waiters, retail and bar staff could be replaced now (with vending machines or self service, that’s all you need) but they aren’t to any large extent.