Population and Migration 2019 - CSO figures

Kermit.de.frog

CSO just released this years figures

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2019/






(click on link at top for full data)

Disappointing to see Irish net migration return. Also slightly less people coming here than last year.

Had expected more a jump in the statistics from last year but I guess we are feeling the housing problems in our demographics now.

Still positive overall though. Population up from 4,857,000 last year to 4,921,000 this year. Population increase in year of 64,500.

Thoughts?

SporadicMan

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

CSO just released this years figures

Still positive overall though. Population up from 4,857,000 last year to 4,921,000 this year. Population increase in year of 64,500.

Thoughts?

Is population increased an unconditionally good thing?

I am quite surprised by how high the 'Rest of World' immigration is when compared with EU. I think people are under the assumption that the vast vast majority of immigration into the country comes from the EU, but not really the case.

Also, the %s around 'Irish' people in the country has become a bit worthless given how trigger happy we are with our passports.

weldoninhio

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

CSO just released this years figures

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2019/






(click on link at top for full data)

Disappointing to see Irish net migration return. Also slightly less people coming here than last year.

Had expected more a jump in the statistics from last year but I guess we are feeling the housing problems in our demographics now.

Still positive overall though. Population up from 4,857,000 last year to 4,921,000 this year. Population increase in year of 64,500.

Thoughts?

What did you find positive about it??

Kermit.de.frog

SporadicMan wrote: »

Is population increased an unconditionally good thing?

If you want your pension paid then yes, yes it is.

Ireland is way under populated so it is very positive to see decent population growth.

Could be better though once more new housing starts coming on stream. That's the biggest factor holding things back in my opinion.

weldoninhio

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If you want your pension paid then yes, yes it is.

Ireland is way under populated so it is very positive to see decent population growth.

Could be better though once more new housing starts coming on stream. That's the biggest factor holding things back in my opinion.

Surely that is dependent on who comes in and if they work?? Otherwise, it would take away from your chances of getting a pension???

Kermit.de.frog

weldoninhio wrote: »

Surely that is dependent on who comes in and if they work?? Otherwise, it would take away from your chances of getting a pension???

You can't have it both ways.

We need more migration to the country because Irish women are not having enough children. It's as blunt as that.

There is no argument to be had unless we all have more children.

Obviously not all will be well meaning workers. Most who come here do work and contribute though and put down roots.

riffmongous

I think the next recession will have a big effect, certainly emigration is going to increase, immigration might depend on Brexit

Kermit.de.frog

In Irish Times (paywalled)

Record employment with 2.3m people at work in Irish economy

Workforce boosted by return of emigrants and influx of foreign nationals

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/record-employment-with-2-3m-people-at-work-in-irish-economy-1.3998675?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Frecord-employment-with-2-3m-people-at-work-in-irish-economy-1.3998675

weldoninhio

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You can't have it both ways.

We need more migration to the country because Irish women are not having enough children. It's as blunt as that.

There is no argument to be had unless we all have more children.

Obviously not all will be well meaning workers. Most who come here do work and contribute though and put down roots.

But having more children is killing the planet apparently. You can't have it both ways. A lot of jobs will be automated in the future. We are seeing it already with self service cashiers, self service garages, self service ordering in McDonalds etc. This is only going to become more widespread, not less.

Kermit.de.frog

One significant problem I see in the stats is that the participation rate in the workforce is just 62.1%.

In 2007 it was 66%.

This is where the debate over the welfare system comes in - whether it is too easy going and generous, whether there are too many welfare traps in the system and whether activation measures are working within the system.

We need to increase the participation rate and a bit more stick than carrot may be needed with jobs going unfilled.

Kermit.de.frog

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If you want your pension paid then yes, yes it is.

Ireland is way under populated so it is very positive to see decent population growth.

Could be better though once more new housing starts coming on stream. That's the biggest factor holding things back in my opinion.

yes, but who pays their pensions?

Overheal

Simply put economies at least western economies are built on growth, from pensions and welfare on up to GDP. Growth isn’t optional in those terms. There’s no legitimate plan for population decline.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/rlydon2/status/1166302762705018880


On population...

https://twitter.com/danobrien20/status/1166292298063339520

https://twitter.com/danobrien20/status/1166292930090475525

OfflerCrocGod

weldoninhio wrote: »

But having more children is killing the planet apparently. You can't have it both ways. A lot of jobs will be automated in the future. We are seeing it already with self service cashiers, self service garages, self service ordering in McDonalds etc. This is only going to become more widespread, not less.

And for all of that we have record employment. We are making more jobs then the ones being lost.

Boggles

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

One significant problem I see in the stats is that the participation rate in the workforce is just 62.1%.

Is that not well above average for the EU?

Kermit.de.frog

Boggles wrote: »

Is that not well above average for the EU?

The average is 59% in the EU but that includes multiple countries like Italy, Greece and Spain for example which historically have lower participation rates particularly among younger people.

We should not be using that standard as it distorts the average.

We need to look more to northern European and UK participation rates which are higher than ours.

Kermit.de.frog

There are more females than males in Ireland.


So they need us more than we need them - all the guys must be doing really well. It's just over one female for each of us on average

Pixel Eater

So 27,000 Irish national immigrated to Ireland and 29,000 emigrated; are these ethnic Irish? They could conceivably be foreign nationals who have obtained Irish citizenship. Does the CSO check this or go by passports alone?

jay0109

OfflerCrocGod wrote: »

And for all of that we have record employment. We are making more jobs then the ones being lost.

Quantity over quality I think

jay0109

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We need more migration to the country because Irish women are not having enough children. It's as blunt as that.

There is no argument to be had unless we all have more children.

How can they be having more than 1 or 2 children when we have designed our tax system so that it discriminates against 1 income households!
That it now takes 2 salaries to afford the mortgage on a modest house in any of the urban areas and even then, you'll be in your 30's before you get to that position.

recedite

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We need more migration to the country because Irish women are not having enough children. It's as blunt as that.

Maybe some govt. incentives would be in order. And some policies to enable families to expand without being financially crippled.

It looks like we are just jogging along nicely, it's very even.

jay0109

mariaalice wrote: »

It looks like we are just jogging along nicely, it's very even.

Let's see what the next census throws up? If I recall correctly, the CSO had to make a big adjustment upwards at the last census to their quarterly figures...turns out there were a lot more immigration into the country then they had previously 'guessed'.
Stunned I was!

Franz Von Peppercorn II

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If you want your pension paid then yes, yes it is.

Ireland is way under populated so it is very positive to see decent population growth.

Could be better though once more new housing starts coming on stream. That's the biggest factor holding things back in my opinion.

The pension argument for present day immigration is spurious as they will in fact be a pension cost, even if they leave and are EU, in future.

The pension argument for future immigration might make sense but the only permanent way to solve the crisis is to increase the retirement age. Unfortunately.

ChikiChiki

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If you want your pension paid then yes, yes it is.

Ireland is way under populated so it is very positive to see decent population growth.

Could be better though once more new housing starts coming on stream. That's the biggest factor holding things back in my opinion.

I agree its a good thing but I cannot see the infrastructure in place to match the rates of migration. We are a very reactive country, not proactive.

Kimsang

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If you want your pension paid then yes, yes it is.

Ireland is way under populated so it is very positive to see decent population growth.

So who pays their pensions? Have you realized your advocating a ponzi scheme?

“We have a finite environment—the planet. Anyone who thinks that you can have infinite growth in a finite environment is either a madman or an economist. "-David Attenborough

Overheal

jay0109 wrote: »

Quantity over quality I think

The gig economy: Uber, Lyft, GrubHub,etc.

jay0109

jay0109 wrote: »

Quantity over quality I think

I wouldnt be so sure.

Unemployment is very low, my boss was talking about a big project coming up and hiring a few engineers for it.

He's very unsure about where to get them, and the quality of the folks available.

4068ac1elhodqr

Migration will only of use, going forward if it consists of legal, educated and highly skilled workers.
By the 2030's it's estimated 30-40% of current job roles will be lost (due to automation).

Thus it's important to focus on quality over quantity, in this, the 4th industrial reveloution gig-economy.
Skilled workers should be welcomed, however Illegal or mass unskilled migration patterns will cost very serveley indeed.

Many unskilled roles such as waiters, warehousing, bar staff, retail sales and kitchen assistants will see 70% risk of elimination.
Ireland already faces 100,000 job losses from a hard-brexit. C'Tax harmonisation and a looming global recession add further to risks.

Assetbacked

Kristopher Great Signpost wrote: »

Migration will only of use, going forward if it consists of legal, educated and highly skilled workers.
By the 2030's it's estimated 30-40% of current job roles will be lost (due to automation).

Thus it's important to focus on quality over quantity, in this, the 4th industrial reveloution gig-economy.
Skilled workers should be welcomed, however Illegal or mass unskilled migration patterns will cost very serveley indeed.

Many unskilled roles such as waiters, warehousing, bar staff, retail sales and kitchen assistants will see 70% risk of elimination.
Ireland already faces 100,000 job losses from a hard-brexit. C'Tax harmonisation and a looming global recession add further to risks.

To be honest, the last 5 years of "growth" have felt less like growth and more like a recession. The sooner things start to change from the past few years of massively increasing cost of living, the better. There should be absolutely no reason to not continue to reduce income tax or abolish USC in order to start feeding some of the growth to ordinary tax paying workers.

Franz Von Peppercorn II

Kristopher Great Signpost wrote: »

Migration will only of use, going forward if it consists of legal, educated and highly skilled workers.
By the 2030's it's estimated 30-40% of current job roles will be lost (due to automation).

Thus it's important to focus on quality over quantity, in this, the 4th industrial reveloution gig-economy.
Skilled workers should be welcomed, however Illegal or mass unskilled migration patterns will cost very serveley indeed.

Many unskilled roles such as waiters, warehousing, bar staff, retail sales and kitchen assistants will see 70% risk of elimination.
Ireland already faces 100,000 job losses from a hard-brexit. C'Tax harmonisation and a looming global recession add further to risks.

Waiters, retail and bar staff could be replaced now (with vending machines or self service, that’s all you need) but they aren’t to any large extent.

Harvey Weinstein

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You can't have it both ways.

We need more migration to the country because Irish women are not having enough children. It's as blunt as that.

There is no argument to be had unless we all have more children.

Obviously not all will be well meaning workers. Most who come here do work and contribute though and put down roots.

To replace Irish people in other words...

is_that_so

Harvey Weinstein wrote: »

To replace Irish people in other words...

A new generation will be Irish or is your concern here about skin hues?

circadian

For those giving out about immigration and the great replacement theory quackery or whatever else.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-49481726

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) said the number of non-Irish nationals living in Ireland increased from 593,600 to 622,700, which is 12.7% of the total population.

Of the non-Irish nationals an estimated 115,000 are from the UK, 340,000 from elsewhere in the EU and 169,000 from elsewhere in the world.

circadian

circadian wrote: »

For those giving out about immigration and the great replacement theory quackery or whatever else.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-49481726

Elsewhere in the world is less than half of the number of immigrants from EU or UK. All this banging on about some Muslim invasion or whatever is just guff spouted off by the likes of Justin Barrett/Gemma O'Doherty to try and justify their incoherent ramblings of hate and inability to deal with change.



Hit quote instead of reply *facepalm.png*

recedite

is_that_so wrote: »

A new generation will be Irish or is your concern here about skin hues?

Certainly the next generation would be Irish citizens. So lets suppose after another generation these differently coloured Irish who perhaps are followers of Islam or some African Pentecostal church are living reasonably happily alongside their more traditionally Irish brethren.
What advantage is it? What would we actually have achieved, as opposed to going the way we always went before, which was to rear a sufficient number of replacements from our own population?


Maybe the most recently arrived populations would live in the worst areas, while the most long established (and the most white) people would inhabit the best areas and have the best jobs. But these rich white people would be so focused on their careers that they would have very few offspring. So society would be like a conveyor belt, moving from newly arrived asylum seeker all the way up to the top.
It all seems a bit dystopian to me.

is_that_so

recedite wrote: »

Certainly the next generation would be Irish citizens. So lets suppose after another generation these differently coloured Irish who perhaps are followers of Islam or some African Pentecostal church are living reasonably happily alongside their more traditionally Irish brethren.
What advantage is it? What would we actually have achieved, as opposed to going the way we always went before, which was to rear a sufficient number of replacements from our own population?


Maybe the most recently arrived populations would live in the worst areas, while the most long established (and the most white) people would inhabit the best areas and have the best jobs. But these rich white people would be so focused on their careers that they would have very few offspring. So society would be like a conveyor belt, moving from newly arrived asylum seeker all the way up to the top.
It all seems a bit dystopian to me.

This is based on very shaky foundation of your first two odd claims and how people worship their deity is their business. There is no evidence of either taking place in the kind of numbers you're suggesting. As the CSO shows the vast majority are EU nationals.
The asylum seeker route is a red herring. We don't have huge numbers there either and this thesis really presumes that the status quo will be maintained into perpetuity vis a vis the root causes of such migration.

rossie1977

Ireland's population has increased by 1 million since 2002

Harvey Weinstein

is_that_so wrote: »

A new generation will be Irish or is your concern here about skin hues?

What does this mean exactly?
If 'anyone' can be Irish then 'Irish' means nothing at all, and there is no such thing as 'Irish'
And all 'irishness' really describes is having been born in a particular geographic location, and nothing more beyond that.

My concern is that Irish people are being replaced with peoples from any and all parts of the world, skin colour is entirely irrelevant.

recedite

is_that_so wrote: »

This is based on very shaky foundation of your first two odd claims and how people worship their deity is their business. There is no evidence of either taking place in the kind of numbers you're suggesting. As the CSO shows the vast majority are EU nationals.
The asylum seeker route is a red herring. We don't have huge numbers there either and this thesis really presumes that the status quo will be maintained into perpetuity vis a vis the root causes of such migration.

You haven't answered the question though.

To put it bluntly, I'm asking what is the advantage of using other countries as our future breeding stock, as opposed to having family friendly policies for people already living here?


BTW the CSO figures are concerned with "net migration" not with numbers of what most of us understand to be immigrants. So Irish people returning to live here are classified as "immigrants". Its not clear whether asylum seekers are classified as immigrants before their applications are decided.


I mention religion, culture and race because these things do have a bearing when you are talking about society, social cohesion and the nation state as a concept.

jay0109

is_that_so wrote: »

A new generation will be Irish or is your concern here about skin hues?

Doesn't seem to work like that in the UK for example where so many immigrants live in their own communities with no integration and bring all their customs/traditions/way of life with them.

is_that_so

jay0109 wrote: »

Doesn't seem to work like that in the UK for example where so many immigrants live in their own communities with no integration and bring all their customs/traditions/way of life with them.

The UK tends to be a bad example for lots of things.
A lot of them came from places far further afield and the UK made little effort to encourage integration and it was the 1950s. Most of the kids in the family have friends amongst the new Irish. They just see them as friends.

jay0109

is_that_so wrote: »

The UK tends to be a bad example for lots of things.
A lot of them came from places far further afield and the UK made little effort to encourage integration and it was the 1950s. Most of the kids in the family have friends amongst the new Irish. They just see them as friends.

Ok, lets skip the UK. How are things looking in say, France?

is_that_so

recedite wrote: »

You haven't answered the question though.

To put it bluntly, I'm asking what is the advantage of using other countries as our future breeding stock, as opposed to having family friendly policies for people already living here?


BTW the CSO figures are concerned with "net migration" not with numbers of what most of us understand to be immigrants. So Irish people returning to live here are classified as "immigrants". Its not clear whether asylum seekers are classified as immigrants before their applications are decided.


I mention religion, culture and race because these things do have a bearing when you are talking about society, social cohesion and the nation state as a concept.

We all have our origins somewhere, in some cases much longer ago than others. Productive members of society works for me regardless of where they come from. Your nation state is an idealistic one, steeped in what I can see is the historic notions on nationhood. That world no longer exists.

Ulysses Gaze

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You can't have it both ways.

We need more migration to the country because Irish women are not having enough children. It's as blunt as that.

There is no argument to be had unless we all have more children.

Obviously not all will be well meaning workers. Most who come here do work and contribute though and put down roots.

Automation is going to knock out a number of jobs/professions from lower level to mid-tier level - blue and white collar.

We'll need less people to employ - not more

Overheal

recedite wrote: »

You haven't answered the question though.

To put it bluntly, I'm asking what is the advantage of using other countries as our future breeding stock, as opposed to having family friendly policies for people already living here?


BTW the CSO figures are concerned with "net migration" not with numbers of what most of us understand to be immigrants. So Irish people returning to live here are classified as "immigrants". Its not clear whether asylum seekers are classified as immigrants before their applications are decided.


I mention religion, culture and race because these things do have a bearing when you are talking about society, social cohesion and the nation state as a concept.

Well you’ve hinted at it yourself: migrants integrate into the lower rungs of the economy, for many it’s a big step up, (of course some will become doctors and engineers etc) meanwhile the native population’s quality of life increases and if they choose to focus on their careers rather than breeding progeny then - that’s a personal choice. If such natives want to live their lives while producing 0~1 children then what right do they have to be upset that the demographics change over the next century, really?

Whatever family planning scheme you come up with, Recedite, will fall into the same problem white supremacists had in the 1970s United States (no, I’m not calling you anything of the ilk): the law won’t let you make a family planning policy eg. To pay people to have babies that only is eligible for white babies - there are discrimination laws against that. Their solution was to drive hard against abortions, because when you dived into the numbers white girls were electing abortions at a higher relative rate than colored folks. This banning abortion has, for decades, been seen as the panacea for forcing white girls to keep their babies (great c-c-combo with abstinence only education - I could serve up several anecdotes about how much that messes up teens).

The tl;Dr version is that middle and upper class folks (predominantly white) choose family planning options more often, and opt to have smaller families. There are exceptions of course like my colleague who is on his 9th creationist spawn, but that’s a buck in the trend. You’d have to have a damn good solution for having pro-family policies that get you the solution you want, ie. A native/white supermajority demographic till kingdom come.

is_that_so

jay0109 wrote: »

Ok, lets skip the UK. How are things looking in say, France?

Generally OK as far as I can see. The banlieue continue to be an issue but France is getting to a point of accepting multi-culturalism. Having good sport teams has helped there!

recedite

is_that_so wrote: »

Your nation state is an idealistic one, steeped in what I can see is the historic notions on nationhood. That world no longer exists.

It still exists alright.
it seems to me you would prefer Baltimore West Cork to become like Baltimore USA.

I'm just asking, whats the advantage?

recedite

Overheal wrote: »

Well you’ve hinted at it yourself: migrants integrate into the lower rungs of the economy, for many it’s a big step up, (of course some will become doctors and engineers etc) meanwhile the native population’s quality of life increases and if they choose to focus on their careers rather than breeding progeny then - that’s a personal choice.

A divided society then, with a wealthy elite employing immigrants as carers and gardeners. Such people returning to their ghetto every night.
I don't see that as an improvement over a more equal and cohesive society.

Overheal wrote: »

Whatever family planning scheme you come up with, Recedite, will fall into the same problem white supremacists had in the 1970s United States (no, I’m not calling you anything of the ilk): the law won’t let you make a family planning policy eg. To pay people to have babies that only is eligible for white babies - there are discrimination laws against that. Their solution was to drive hard against abortions, because when you dived into the numbers white girls were electing abortions at a higher relative rate than colored folks.

That's a nonsensical conspiracy theory and I'm not going down that rabbithole.

Overheal wrote: »

You’d have to have a damn good solution for having pro-family policies that get you the solution you want, ie. A native/white supermajority demographic till kingdom come.

That's a nonsensical strawman argument.


This is the kind of thing I'm referring to.

Harvey Weinstein

Overheal wrote: »

the solution you want, ie. A native/white supermajority demographic till kingdom come.

A native supermajority...yes absolutely, whats wrong with that?

Why are you categorising Irish people as White?

recedite

is_that_so wrote: »

Generally OK as far as I can see. The banlieue continue to be an issue but France is getting to a point of accepting multi-culturalism. Having good sport teams has helped there!

And entertainers.