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Greta and the aristocrat sail the high seas to save the planet.
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weldoninhio wrote: »I picked three at random and what they are qualified in.
1. Maria Abate. Zoologist and biology.
2. Peter Hodum. Avian Ecology and biology.
3. Leonie Valentine. Conservation biologist.
None of the three I picked at random have qualifications in climatology etc. Now the other 10997 might have, but it would be a bit of a coincidence if they were. I'd be interested if others picked 3 at random (to allay any fears of bias on my part), how many would actually be climate scientists??
Do you want to know what sample size you would need to give you confidence that only so many held a bachelors degree or above in climate science?
From that above image you can see that a sample size of 3 would only give you a confidence interval of 70. However I'm not sure what your experiment is about so you probably need to frame your question more precisely and then decide what method or methods you need to apply to see whether the data supports or negates your expected results. You might be able to get your hands on a copy of the data in a format that allows you to use a software program to perform the necessary analysis. Anyway best of luck with your project.0 -
Tuisceanch wrote: »Do you want to know what sample size you would need to give you confidence that only so many held a bachelors degree or above in climate science?
From that above image you can see that a sample size of 3 would only give you a confidence interval of 70. However I'm not sure what your experiment is about so you probably need to frame your question more precisely and then decide what method or methods you need to apply to see whether the data supports or negates your expected results. You might be able to get your hands on a copy of the data in a format that allows you to use a software program to perform the necessary analysis. Anyway best of luck with your project.
The three people selected seem amply qualified to have an opinion on climate change from a zoology/biology/ecology perspective.0 -
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The eventual displacement of billions of people due to the reduced habitability through food production of many lower latitude nations, coupled with the reduced habitability of may coastal and low level urban aread due to rising maximum water levels during storms - these things aren't a part of normal abberations.
There's a worldwide scientific consensus that it's the human contribution pushing the tipping points.
So I gather you are talking some mad max style theorised future projections? How many 'billions' are you reckoning - given that there currently 7.7 billion on the planet. A quarter? Half? For scale China at 1.4 Billion makes up just under a fifth of the world population.
Plus the greatest density of global population is in the Mid / northern latitudes well above the 'lower latitudes'
I reckon that "worldwide consensus'" is the product of a largely alarmist mindset tbh.
Btw the IPCC do not use 'tipping points' in their modeling. In 2014 they defined a tipping point "as an irreversible change in the climate system" But made it clear "that the precise levels of climate change sufficient to trigger a tipping point remain uncertain". There is no mention of Tipping Points in the IPCCs latest Report Summary for Policymakers.0 -
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Tuisceanch wrote: »Do you want to know what sample size you would need to give you confidence that only so many held a bachelors degree or above in climate science?
From that above image you can see that a sample size of 3 would only give you a confidence interval of 70. However I'm not sure what your experiment is about so you probably need to frame your question more precisely and then decide what method or methods you need to apply to see whether the data supports or negates your expected results. You might be able to get your hands on a copy of the data in a format that allows you to use a software program to perform the necessary analysis. Anyway best of luck with your project.
Therefore I offered it out to boards, for others to pick 3 at random. You seem to have glossed over that. There are currently 2335 people who can read my post, take away say 35 who may be forum banned, that's 2299 people who could possibly pick 3 at random and prove me right or wrong.0 -
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The effcts of climate change decimate crop production primarily in lower latitudes (mid to lower, to be more precise) - affecting mostly poorer nations:So I gather you are talking some mad max style theorised future projections? How many 'billions' are you reckoning - given that there currently 7.7 billion on the planet. A quarter? Half? For scale China at 1.4 Billion makes up just under a fifth of the world population.
Plus the greatest density of global population is in the Mid / northern latitudes well above the 'lower latitudes'
I reckon that "worldwide consensus'" is the product of a largely alarmist mindset tbh.
Btw the IPCC do not use 'tipping points' in their modeling. In 2014 they defined a tipping point "as an irreversible change in the climate system" But made it clear "that the precise levels of climate change sufficient to trigger a tipping point remain uncertain". There is no mention of Tipping Points in the IPCCs latest Report Summary for Policymakers.
And on the displacement of billions:Rising seas could result in 2 billion refugees by 2100https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/06/170626105746.htm
Date:June 26, 2017Source:Cornell UniversitySummary:In the year 2100, 2 billion people -- about one-fifth of the world's population -- could become climate change refugees due to rising ocean levels. Those who once lived on coastlines will face displacement and resettlement bottlenecks as they seek habitable places inland, according to new research.
The scientific consensus I referred to is that humans are pushing climate change.0 -
The effcts of climate change decimate crop production primarily in lower latitudes (mid to lower, to be more precise) - affecting mostly poorer nations:
And on the displacement of billions:Rising seas could result in 2 billion refugees by 2100https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/06/170626105746.htm
Date:June 26, 2017Source:Cornell UniversitySummary:In the year 2100, 2 billion people -- about one-fifth of the world's population -- could become climate change refugees due to rising ocean levels. Those who once lived on coastlines will face displacement and resettlement bottlenecks as they seek habitable places inland, according to new research.
The scientific consensus I referred to is that humans are pushing climate change.
Between that and that graph about agricultural yields, Europe should. focus on closing and securing its borders to ensure we're not over run by these migrants.0 -
The effcts of climate change decimate crop production primarily in lower latitudes (mid to lower, to be more precise) - affecting mostly poorer nations:
And on the displacement of billions:
Rising seas could result in 2 billion refugees by 2100https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/06/170626105746.htm
Date:June 26, 2017Source:Cornell UniversitySummary:In the year 2100, 2 billion people -- about one-fifth of the world's population -- could become climate change refugees due to rising ocean levels. Those who once lived on coastlines will face displacement and resettlement bottlenecks as they seek habitable places inland, according to new research.
The scientific consensus I referred to is that humans are pushing climate change.
Nope that wasnt made clear where you referred to 'worldwide' concensus / wtte.
What you've missed there was your previous reference to your many 'billions' in lower latitudes. In contrast your reference above details
"Those who once lived on coastlines will face displacement and resettlement bottlenecks as they seek habitable places inland, according to new research".
That says nothing about your statement that there would be 'displacement of billions of people due to the reduced habitability through food production of many lower latitude nations' .
The point being the far greatest density of people is not in lower latitudes which you are going on about. You also need to check what your graphic says about climate change theoretically improving agricultural outputs worldwide ...A key culprit in climate change - carbon emissions can also help agriculture by enhancing photosynthesis in many important crops such as wheat rice and soybean.
The above comes with the provisio that "The science however is far from certain on the benefit of carbon fertilisation". So like a lot of scientific projections then.
It also clearly states that:
This Map represents the case of beneficial carbon fertilisation processes
You may wish to compare that map based projection with the areas considered the major crop production areas across the globe ....0 -
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