Royal Ascot Day 4

TheMilkyPirate

Japan day.

bludcrazetiger

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Japan day.

trebled up with Ten sov and Hermosa at 10s, mugs bet but sure why not.

supremenovice

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Japan day.

Bangkok for me. de Sousa to get off the mark.

IAMAMORON

I see the Blackrock Racing Club are going for Ascot glory in the last. These lads are "Pure Ledges"

https://twitter.com/BlackrockRacing

The owners and trainers enclosure will want to be well stocked up with schoops of Hino for Arthurian Flame tomorrow.

Slattsy

Rugby ****

Brock Turnpike

Slattsy wrote: »

Rugby ****

Class discrimination works both ways it seems.

WicklowBrave

Brock Turnpike wrote: »

Class discrimination works both ways it seems.

No, it doesn’t.

Mostly Harmless

Statement of fact

IAMAMORON

I started panicking there for the poor staff at Ascot tomorrow. Seemingly you can't get pints of Hino on site. There is going to be killings for sure.

I reckon the Peroni is going to take a serious hiding. I hope they have enough left on Saturday.

Looking forward to the Rock gits picking up Matt Chapman and giving him a wedgey, live on ITV.

madmoose

Been listening a few judges saying Galadriel in the 2.30 and i can see it was getting backed. Was pitched into a listed race at York on it’s debut and made eyecatching headway into 4th behind the winner Good Vibes. 14/1 ew.

realdanbreen

Brock Turnpike wrote: »

Class discrimination works both ways it seems.

It's a good job the owners/connections of Arthurian fame and the owners/connections of Labaik are unlikely to ever be in the same enclosure!

Scoundrel

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I see the Blackrock Racing Club are going for Ascot glory in the last. These lads are "Pure Ledges"

https://twitter.com/BlackrockRacing

The owners and trainers enclosure will want to be well stocked up with schoops of Hino for Arthurian Flame tomorrow.

I don't think I've ever wanted a horse beat more in my life.

IAMAMORON

Great to see Frankie doing the business, what a dude, fair play to him. He has only 5 runnners today. I did a 50c ew x accum at 59796 / 1 ew. If it wins I am flying to Vegas and putting it all on black.

I am going ew against all the favourites today. The fillies can be fussier than the punters some times.

2.30 Nayibeth - is drifting but was hot with all podcasts and previews for the past month. Supposed to be the quickest thing since lady Aurelia etc etc. Also small ew on Sheila Lavery's filly .
3.05 Pablo Escobar - Haggas is in great form. Small ew on Jack Yeats.
3.40 Ew on Konchek. I can't get over the price and the entry to be honest. But Clive Cox is great with sprinters and he would have had other options with this horse. 66/1 is too big even if he turns out to be not good enough.
4.20 Ew's on Frankie and on Happen.
5.00 Magnetic Charm - Could arguably have run in the Coronation stakes given her beating of Twist n Shake at York. It looks thrown in for the Queen.
5.40 Lethal Steps - For the King of Cullentra.

And of course Arthurian Flame has to get a tenner. I realised in the middle of the night, that in this life, you have to sometimes a pick a side. After some severe hyperventilation and cold sweating, I realised that every man, that has ever existed, is either a self entitled rugby supporting dickhead from south Dublin ….. or he is not... there is no middle ground here , you either are or you aren't, to be or not to be... that is the question.:eek:

Peintre Celebre

Galadriel 16s in the opener who ran well pitched in the deep end first time out. Step up in trip to suit

Scoundrel

14.30 Galadriel 11/1

15.05 Pondus 9/2

15.40 Advertise 7/1

16.20 Hermosa 10/11

17.00 Lady Maddison 14/1

17.35 Johnny Drama 11/1

madmoose

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Galadriel 16s in the opener who ran well pitched in the deep end first time out. Step up in trip to suit

Not sure where you are getting 16/1 as he has been backed.

PhuckHugh22

We go again.

Albany: Exclusively @25/1(1 point win), Jm Jackson @12/1(1point win)
King Edward + Commonwealth: Japan @11/8 + Ten Sovereigns @5/4(2 points win Double)
Coronation Stakes: Castle Lady @7/1(1.5 points e/w)
Sandringham: Im Available @16/1(1 point e/w 1/5 6 places), Hotsy Totsy @13/2(1point e/w 1/5 6 places)
Duke of Edinburgh: Byron Flyer @28/1(0.5 points e/w 1/5 5 places)

Staked: 12 points

longshotvalue

11/8 Japan, seems like finding money in the road. I thought he would be backed into 4/6. Ive emptied the clip, and ladbrokes even boosted half of it to a bit bigger.

Whiplash85

aidankkk wrote: »

11/8 Japan, seems like finding money in the road. I thought he would be backed into 4/6. Ive emptied the clip, and ladbrokes even boosted half of it to a bit bigger.

I dont think the form of O Brien favourites this week has been particularly strong. So maybe that is factored into the price here.

The Mig

Mon the Flame

Whiplash85

Scoundrel wrote: »

I don't think I've ever wanted a horse beat more in my life.

Wasn't aware of who the connections were until I saw it flagged up here and I echo your sentiments. Had a small bet on it last night but will cash out now as I couldn't bring myself to cheer it on.

TheMilkyPirate

Just looking at the record of placed horses at Epsom in the King Edward and it isn't great - 45063U5000. Add in the fact O'Briens terrible record in the race and I'm starting to sway away from Japan.

sdoc13

PP 9/2 on Japan hermosa double.

realdanbreen

sdoc13 wrote: »

PP 9/2 on Japan hermosa double.

You're probably on a winner there but purely for value I'm going Private secretary 5/1 & pretty Pollyanna 12/1

Slattsy

sdoc13 wrote: »

PP 9/2 on Japan hermosa double.

Looks a solid double.

supremenovice

I cant have Japan at all. O'Briens Derby runners have a horrendous record in this race. Hard to peak twice in 20 days.

Mostly Harmless

My darts for today:
2.30: Back To Brussels/Moon Of Love
3.05: Pablo Escobarr (NAP)
3.40: Hello Youmzain
4.20: Happen (NB)
5.00: Nonchalence
5.35: Sevenna Star/Downdraft

Was on Japan in Derby but happy enough to take him on at prices today, will need them to go a good clip in front and likely to be caught out if it turns any way tactical. Happen looks a cracking bet in Coronation too, have bet her EW with and without FAV.

Peintre Celebre

madmoose wrote: »

Not sure where you are getting 16/1 as he has been backed.

Last night

Francie Barrett

Ascot 2:30 - Best long shot bet of the festival has to be Moon Of Love at 33/1 with Betfred paying 5 places. Ran for the first time 3 weeks ago in a hot class 2 race at Beverley and should have won but was badly hampered twice.

Close up on inner, challenging and every chance when badly hampered over 1f out, soon ridden and chasing leading pair when edged left and hampered again inside final furlong, kept on same pace after (op 9/2)

1st and 2nd place horses from that race have both been declared for Ascot. The winner Liberty Beach ran a very good race in the Queen Mary finishing 4th. The second place horse runs in the Chesham tomorrow. Clearly three very decent animals and the overall form line of their last race reads a lot better than many I see lined up for the 2:30 today.

The way this horse finished, and its breeding would suggest to me that a step up in trip to 6f should be ok, but I am a little concerned if there is too much juice in the ground, we are into much more unproven territory.

Still, if you accept that this horse should have a 1 next to its name, then this is clear value, and should be trading in single digit figures.

BumperD

aidankkk wrote: »

11/8 Japan, seems like finding money in the road. I thought he would be backed into 4/6. Ive emptied the clip, and ladbrokes even boosted half of it to a bit bigger.

You only bet small so emptying an already empty clip doesn’t amount to much

SeamusQuack

sdoc13 wrote: »

PP 9/2 on Japan hermosa double.

I like this but unfortunately the bookies dont tend to lose money on double specials. Was going to back both of those until I saw the pp special. Good luck with it, I hope they got it wrong. Going for a place double on those 2 with Dettori instead

longshotvalue

BumperD wrote: »

You only bet small so emptying an already empty clip doesn’t amount to much

Ture, the clip has been empty for a while. I won a few quid on that Fanaar yesterday and stuck the lot on japan (for me a big bet).


Had a few quid on that yank speedball in the first as well, (paddy power shop near the office).

PhuckHugh22

If you take an opinion on something. Dont change it because the bookies priced up some special. A lot of the time it is just the traders taking a stand.
The correct way to play it is to check the Betfair odds which is 2.06x2.42. Which is just under 4/1 with no commision. There is value there.

That being said it is still a 4/1 shot so it only happens 20% of the time. The problem is people expect these things to be 50:50 chances and when they lose there is a conspiracy that the bookies knew something.

ASOT

Went with Exclusivity e/w at 25s in the first, neck second to Good Vibes when giving 4lbs seems like a good marker considering the money down for Galadriel.

The Tetrarch

14:30 Chili Petin 32.00
I can't watch it without a bet.

Lady Haywire

Almost too late!
Galadriel, Private Secretary, Khaadem, Castle lady, Layaleena, Collide.

BumperD

aidankkk wrote: »

Ture, the clip has been empty for a while. I won a few quid on that Fanaar yesterday and stuck the lot on japan (for me a big bet).


Had a few quid on that yank speedball in the first as well, (paddy power shop near the office).

I may prove wrong in time (usually do) but I suspect the derby form will fall apart in time with the exception of the winner who had plenty left at the finish , they finished in a heap behind which is not a good sign. I only just looked at the 3.05 jack Yeats 33/1 the outsider of O Briens thought that would be your pick .

bludcrazetiger

backed the fave here in Daahyeh.

BorneTobyWilde

Moon of Love
one I LIKE in first.

BorneTobyWilde

That's a good win off of it's previous win. TO win in such a large field like that is a huge positive, could be a star in the making.

Slattsy

Aroha each way for me in the first.

PhuckHugh22

Jesus those Ward yokes have stunk the place out all week. I dont know is it the jockeys or the way the horses are trained. But they literally just run the guts out of them for 4 furlongs and they are dead on their feet for the last furlong or 2.

IAMAMORON

PhuckHugh22 wrote: »

Jesus those Ward yokes have stunk the place out all week. I dont know is it the jockeys or the way the horses are trained. But they literally just run the guts out of them for 4 furlongs and they are dead on their feet for the last furlong or 2.

Your spot on. They are essentially 4f sprinters. They have them broken in and on the gallops a good 4 -5 months before here. They whip the **** out of them, very few become 3 yr olds.

BorneTobyWilde

Humanitarian for me EW here.

PhuckHugh22

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Your spot on. They are essentially 4f sprinters. They have them broken in and on the gallops a good 4 -5 months before here. They whip the **** out of them, very few become 3 yr olds.

Ya i dont bet them. Mainly as i dont really buy into the hype and i definitely dont know anything about them. But id be fairly miffed if i had backed one of them and the jockeys literally had the gun to the head from the minute they left the stalls.

I guess you know what you are getting if you do follow one.

BorneTobyWilde

Japan a class apart.

bludcrazetiger

pissed up

Francie Barrett

Pretty awful ride from Moore, the horse got him out of trouble there.

TheMilkyPirate

That's the last time I ever let someone else's opinion change mine. Had a big double (by my standard) on Japan and Hermosa but cashed out after reading the racing post this morning. A fool.

Mgoraf

Was hoping he'd be running next week instead of today!

The White Wolf

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Pretty awful ride from Moore, the horse got him out of trouble there.

The ride was standard from Moore this week; settle at the back and hope the cards fall right.