Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

briany

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Regarding the arrogance and stupidity of certain sectors of the UK now, and you know who I'm talking about, I am beginning to think that a good kicking (wake up call) is the only way forward now.

I never thought I would say this, but I am now. Between Brexiteers of all hues, the Brexit Party, the Tories, and a Labour Party that is in stasis, something needs to happen.

They are a total embarrassment to their country.

The GFA will hold, US Congress will make sure of that, as will the EU.

The only positive I can see from all this, is that I am living through history.

Regarding the U.S. Congress and the GFA, I would say that the men and women of the U.S. Congress have principles only at their convenience, and they ultimately dance to the tune their donors play. So, if a UK-US trade deal were to be quite lucrative for, say, the US pharmaceutical sector, those Irish-American congressmen and senators wouldn't hesitate to dance an ironic Irish jig on the paper the GFA was written on.

As for the British Brexiteers, if Brexit caused their homes to burst into flames, they'd marvel at how much they saved on heating.

Kermit.de.frog

This on the twitter machine

https://twitter.com/RepBrendanBoyle/status/1135285755880910849

Capt'n Midnight

Brexit Party wining hearts and minds, good thing they had a manifesto and clearly defined policies.

Ann Widdecombe has come under fire after she suggested science could "produce an answer" to being gay.

Headshot

Trump must be loving Brexit because the UK are going to be so desperate for a trade deal he'll beable to push for access to the NHS and loosening of agricultural standards.

Selling their soul to the devil

It's really madness by the UK that their best friend and biggest trading partner is their neighbours in the rest of Europe but they aren't doing anything to push through a Brexit deal or revoke article 50.

Mind boggling

Anteayer

Unfortunately, I don't think there's any way of getting through to them. An aspect of the tabloids and their political world has spent decades pushing a false narrative that the EU is some kind of evil, power hungry monstrosity that is out to get them. A significant percentage of the English population believe this and there's no changing their minds.

The sad reality is I don't think they'll understand what the EU is or how useful and valuable their membership is until they've left and burnt all the bridges.

There's nothing rational or logical about Brexit and trying to argue with it on a logical and rational level fails everytime as they're just not listening. They've sold themselves a cartoonish fantasy and that's all it is.

My view of it at this stage is we just need to prepare for a deep recession. I certainly am not taking any major financial risks until all of this stuff blows over and eventually reaches some new equilibrium.

ancapailldorcha

Apparently, the last time Boris Johnson was in Dublin on government business his civil servants warned their Irish counterparts to ignore everything he said:

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1134768217505849345?s=09

The Economist has published an article looking at the 124,000 (mostly male) Conservative party members who will choose the next PM:

The Economist wrote:

Who are the selectorate? Research by Queen Mary University of London suggests they are mostly male, white and live in the south of England. Many are well off; one in 20 earns more than £100,000 ($127,000) a year. The average member is 57, but 44% are 65 or older.

They are hardly modernisers. More than half support the death penalty and 84% believe schools should teach children to obey authority. They are keen on old-fashioned pastimes, too. One Tory association is advertising its 40th annual raspberry-and-wine evening. Another promises a stall at an upcoming leek show, “as always”.

The article also mentions that Boris Johnson seems to be a highly polarising figure in the eyes of the membership but there is still a lot of time for him to make his bid and win round the hearts and minds of the membership.

Water John

The last time Boris was in Dublin (after he resigned), the clowns in Pendelum Summit paid him over £50K for the honour.

briany

If Brexit goes totally pear-shaped, who'll be the first into the bunker and last to come out? Boris Johnson.

Cal4567

I don't post here often. More of a long time lurker.

What I will say is my opinion that once they get over the early transition period, the UK will be fine in my opinion. Even if it dips, what are we talking about, the World's 6th largest economy, dropping to 7th? If I had the money I'd be investing in elements of the UK economy if I could find any Brexit related bargains.

As for us, we too will be OK. I don't buy into this doom and gloom scenario. We are still English speaking, have a well educated workforce and remain positioned geographically for the US. Multinationals can see how the wind is blowing with tax harmonisation. Along with Malta, being English speaking can also be used for our benefit.

I'm off now. Back to long time lurking.

Cal4567, it depends on how they leave. A crash out would be the doom and gloom scenario.

CelticRambler

Cal4567 wrote: »

Even if it dips, what are we talking about, the World's 6th largest economy, dropping to 7th?

More like 10th or under, given how quickly the current 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th-placed economies are closing the gap on the UK, and they'll all be trading within established and "in progress" trade agreements, while the UK shows every sign that it'll spend the next decade chasing penny-share deals with places like Lesotho and Swaziland. :rolleyes:

Cal4567 wrote: »

I don't buy into this doom and gloom scenario. We are still English speaking, have a well educated workforce and remain positioned geographically for the US. Multinationals can see how the wind is blowing with tax harmonisation. Along with Malta, being English speaking can also be used for our benefit.

English-speaking isn't much of an advantage when there are just as many English speakers in Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Austria, France ... and of course all those Eastern Europeans that'll return home from the UK with perfectly good English too.

I don't believe Ireland will be hammered as much as some predict, but that's because (contrary to popular opinion in certain quarters) Ireland is a nifty little country, with a political class that knows how to do deals with the outside world.

Stop moaning ffs

I’m really wondering how is it they’re all still so deluded in thinking they can renegotiate. That clown on Marr yesterday and Anna Soubry in the observer with a whole article on it.
Is it some sort of shock they’re in collectively or is it that old British imperialism delusion they seem to have?
It’s so baffling.

mickoneill31

Cal4567 wrote: »

I don't post here often. More of a long time lurker.

What I will say is my opinion that once they get over the early transition period, the UK will be fine in my opinion. Even if it dips, what are we talking about, the World's 6th largest economy, dropping to 7th? If I had the money I'd be investing in elements of the UK economy if I could find any Brexit related bargains.

As for us, we too will be OK. I don't buy into this doom and gloom scenario. We are still English speaking, have a well educated workforce and remain positioned geographically for the US. Multinationals can see how the wind is blowing with tax harmonisation. Along with Malta, being English speaking can also be used for our benefit.

I'm off now. Back to long time lurking.

Trouble is, it's probably too early to invest. Brexit hasn't happened yet. The UK will recover, I'd say it'll be a really long while, and we've no idea which companies are going to be affected. I'd say there are less risky investments outside of the UK.
I wouldn't be too eager to put money into sterling. It already devalued after the referendum. Probably a bit more to go if there's no deal.

Spanish Eyes

Off left field perhaps, but it seems to me that there is a D notice or whatever it's called on UK businesses.

You would imagine that they would be first to say everything that has been posted re the economy and the effect of Brexit on business. Baffled.

Enzokk

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I’m really wondering how is it they’re all still so deluded in thinking they can renegotiate. That clown on Marr yesterday and Anna Soubry in the observer with a whole article on it.
Is it some sort of shock they’re in collectively or is it that old British imperialism delusion they seem to have?
It’s so baffling.

I think you mean Amber Rudd and not Anna Soubry.

Parliament will find a way to insist we don’t leave without a deal


I see a couple of big problems here, firstly she says this,

So we need to start being honest. We are not leaving on 31 October with a deal – parliament will block a no-deal Brexit, and there isn’t time to do a revised deal.

So what happens next? A general election would risk bringing in a Labour leader whose damaging policies make Ed Miliband look moderate.

Then she says this,

So to make any progress we need my backbench colleagues on the government side to engage – otherwise the only way through is working, again, across the House. There is no other way to find a majority.

Many good Conservative colleagues will raise their hands in despair at my suggestion that we engage with Labour backbenchers, but I know there are many who wish to deliver on the result of the referendum.

So her plan is, we have to make Brexit happen otherwise Corbyn and Labour will be in power and their policies will be destructive. So the solution is the work with Labour MP's to ensure this does not happen. She want Labour MP's to help sort out Brexit to ensure Labour does not get its general election and a shot at running the country.

Stop moaning ffs

Enzokk wrote: »

I think you mean Amber Rudd and not Anna Soubry.

Parliament will find a way to insist we don’t leave without a deal


I see a couple of big problems here, firstly she says this,



Then she says this,



So her plan is, we have to make Brexit happen otherwise Corbyn and Labour will be in power and their policies will be destructive. So the solution is the work with Labour MP's to ensure this does not happen. She want Labour MP's to help sort out Brexit to ensure Labour does not get its general election and a shot at running the country.

My mistake thanks for the correction.
But as you point out. The delusion is rife and deep rooted

cml387

The CBI has been very clear in its view that no deal would be a disaster, something they repeated last week.I don't believe they are being censored or self censoring their opinion.
The car industry pointed out the slump in manufacturing around April to allow for the March deadline which never came, as some major manufacturers shut down for maintenance. They've also said that they cannot repeat this for October.

Spanish Eyes

cml387 wrote: »

The CBI has been very clear in its view that no deal would be a disaster, something they repeated last week.I don't believe they are being censored or self censoring their opinion.
The car industry pointed out the slump in manufacturing around April to allow for the March deadline which never came, as some major manufacturers shut down for maintenance. They've also said that they cannot repeat this for October.

Business is the key to the economy. IMV many businesses have said nothing so far.

Wonder why that is? Maybe they think Brexit will be wonderful for them. huh. They could have changed the narrative, but nada from them AFAIS.

Nody

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Wonder why that is? Maybe they think Brexit will be wonderful for them. huh. They could have changed the narrative, but nada from them AFAIS.

Or they simply don't want to be called every name under the sun for being traitors, pessimists, greedy etc. And you're forgetting the message before the election, the full side pages advertisment etc. which were consistently stating voting to leave is a very bad idea.

joe40

If Boris is the darling of the pro brexiteers, is there an argument that having him as PM might be an advantage. I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt that he knows no deal is a disaster, so when he comes back from Brussels with no concessions, no changes he might be able to sell a deal better than May.
It took a hardline republican like Gerry Adams to sell a GFA to his supporters, likewise hardliners like Paisley were needed before convince their supporters.
The lazy narrative that a stronger PM would have done better still holds for some.
That is assuming that his talk of no deal is just bluster. Big assumption maybe.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: No more insults please.

mickoneill31

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Business is the key to the economy. IMV many businesses have said nothing so far.

Wonder why that is? Maybe they think Brexit will be wonderful for them. huh. They could have changed the narrative, but nada from them AFAIS.

Business keeps the head down. Companies don't really want to be involved in politics.
My company cancelled plans for expansion in Manchester and started recruiting around Europe. My job in Dublin existed in London until October last year. No press releases or big announcements just adapt to the conditions and move on.

jochenstacker

mickoneill31 wrote: »

Business keeps the head down. Companies don't really want to be involved in politics.
My company cancelled plans for expansion in Manchester and started recruiting around Europe. My job in Dublin existed in London until October last year. No press releases or big announcements just adapt to the conditions and move on.

I work in IT services and one of our customers had planned a datacenter in the UK.
The project was a good bit along, i.e. premises rented and hardware was being installed.
When brexit was announced the plug was quietly pulled.
Cost them a bunch, but the uncertainty about data security in an unstable, non EU country was too much of a risk.

Capt'n Midnight

CelticRambler wrote: »

More like 10th or under, given how quickly the current 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th-placed economies are closing the gap on the UK, and they'll all be trading within established and "in progress" trade agreements, while the UK shows every sign that it'll spend the next decade chasing penny-share deals with places like Lesotho and Swaziland. :rolleyes:.

In fairness they have a continuity arrangement with Lesotho and Swaziland



or rather I though they did after promising £4Bn in aid for a region that represents 0.75% of total UK trade. Turns out it wasn't ratified in time. :rolleyes:



Engagement ongoing
and the url just looks wrong


The signed agreements are here

These agreements have replicated the EU trade agreements as far as possible. However, there may be some changes to ensure that new agreements work for both countries.

So far as I can see the UK hasn't improved on the existing EU deals with anyone. Please ask any Brexiteer to explain that one.

Especially the Faroese deal where they can take mackerel from UK waters to sell back to the UK or on to Russia as they aren't part of the EU sanctions. So it's the Russians who have benefited most so far.

Headshot

Headshot wrote: »

Trump must be loving Brexit because the UK are going to be so desperate for a trade deal he'll beable to push for access to the NHS and loosening of agricultural standards.

Selling their soul to the devil

It's really madness by the UK that their best friend and biggest trading partner is their neighbours in the rest of Europe but they aren't doing anything to push through a Brexit deal or revoke article 50.

Mind boggling

Talking about loosening of agricultural standards, Channel 4 Dispatches "The Truth about Chlorinated Chicken" in the USA was on tonight. It was quite damning and thank god we have the EU blocking any that really potential harmful meat coming into Europe.

No wonder salmonella food poisoning is prolific in the USA

Good luck with that UK.....

Mezcita

Boris saying in his promo video that the UK will leave with or without a deal on the 31st October. Interesting to see if he sticks to that soundbite.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/03/boris-johnson-tory-leadership-campaign-video

Leroy42

Mezcita wrote: »

Boris saying in his promo video that the UK will leave with or without a deal on the 31st October. Interesting to see if he sticks to that soundbite.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/03/boris-johnson-tory-leadership-campaign-video

Even legislatively can it be done? It was one of the reasons TM had to extend, the legislation simply would not have the time. Even without a hostile house.

And has he put forth any plans as to what happens in all the other areas. Like cancer treatment, courier companies, the borders?

CrabRevolution

The USA forcing the UK to accept a very predatory and unequal trade deal won't really register as a negative with brexit supporters.

Firstly because of the reasons I posted a page back; where anything spawned by their brexit religion is a positive in their eyes.

Secondly; because of the ignorance the general public have of trade terms. The vast majority of people don't know what the current specific trade terms the UK have as part of the EU, so brexit supporters won't know nor care about whatever specific terms they get dictated to them by the USA. The fact the deal will exist at all will be a widely celebrated victory in their eyes and justification for brexit.

I'd love for someone to do some surveys and vox pops in the UK asking the public how much they know about the UK's trade terms, similar to the Irish border one. It'd be a great illustration on how little the public actually know about a subject they've made such a significant yet apparently steadfast and irreversible decision on. And I don't mean that in a condescending way, I myself would know very very little about our terms of trade through the EU.

Peregrinus

Cal4567 wrote: »

I don't post here often. More of a long time lurker.

What I will say is my opinion that once they get over the early transition period, the UK will be fine in my opinion. Even if it dips, what are we talking about, the World's 6th largest economy, dropping to 7th? If I had the money I'd be investing in elements of the UK economy if I could find any Brexit related bargains.

The short-term effect - say, two to threee years - of a no-deal Brexit is a massive hit. But the long term effect is a permament drag on growth. Year after year after year, the UK will underperform comparable economies, for as long as no-deal persists. This continues until the UK reconstructs a trading relationship with the EU that is meaningfully comparable to the one it has had up to now.

You suggest that the UK might fall from sixth to seventh place in the world rankings. I see no reason to think that it will stop there. It's worth remembering the reason why the UK entered the EU in the first place; persistent decline, relative to other European economies.

In 1957, when the EU was founded, the UK was the third biggest economy in the world, after the US and the USSR. It was fourth in 1960 (overtaken by Germany), 5th in 1965 (overtaken by France), 6th in 1970 (overtaken by Japan). Even after joining the EU it continued to decline (though more slowly) being overtaken by Italy during the Thatcher years of the 80s.

The turnaround didn't come unti the Single Market was completed in the 1990s, whereupon the rise of the UK began. By 200 they were back to 5th place (overtook Italy, Soviet Union eliminated from the running by Events) and by 2005 they were fourth (overtook France). Since then they have slipped back, due to a combination of the rise of China, the Global Financial Crisis (which hit the UK particularly hard, as a financial power) and the imact of Brexit expectations and uncertainties.

A hard Brexit removes what seems to have been the main engine of the UK's relative growth, which is participation in the Single Market, and doesn't appear to offer any opportunities that might conceivably replace that. I don't see the UK recovering from the initial shock, stablisings and then moving on to growth, unless and until it reconnects with the Single Market.

Zubeneschamali

Peregrinus wrote: »

In 1957, when the EU was founded, the UK was the third biggest economy in the world, after the US and the USSR. It was fourth in 1960 (overtaken by Germany), 5th in 1965 (overtaken by France), 6th in 1970 (overtaken by Japan). Even after joining the EU it continued to decline (though more slowly) being overtaken by Italy during the Thatcher years of the 80s.

The turnaround didn't come unti the Single Market was completed in the 1990s

Thatcher was a big part of that push to the Single Market, and while Brexiteers are talking nonsense about the promise of doing trade deals with the Third World, Corbyn is talking about undoing Thatchers work, renationalizing everything and taking the UK back to the 1960s when it was at its worst economic position relative to Europe.


Expect the economy to go backwards even faster in a Corbyn led Brexit.