Energy infrastructure

https://www.independent.ie/news/environment/deep-heat-proposals-to-drill-5km-underground-to-warm-our-homes-41199546.html

About time

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118401002#Comment_118401002

Scotland got 42.8% from Nuclear in 2016 so it's share is dropped way down by 2020. It's great to see that renewables and interconnectors have taken up the load.

Hunterstown B, which was to operate until 2023 is now shutting down. One of the two reactors is already offline and moving to defuelling. The other Scottish nuclear plant Torness was due to shutdown in 2030 but last month that was moved to 2028 because of graphite cracks.

Hinkley C may be delayed again depending on how the investigation into problems in China goes.

Nuclear is not dependable. You can't rely on it to be built on time or stay on line. Anyone considering nuclear needs to have a lot of backup power available and a money tree for the interest payments.

BTW Germany took three nuclear plants offline today and the last three nuclear power plants - Isar 2, Emsland and Neckarwestheim II - will be turned off by the end of 2022.

In addition to the French and UK reactors offline or at reduced capacity, North West Europe is going to have a drastic reduction in nuclear power over the next two winters. Which means less "nuclear by the backdoor" for those who don't understand that interconnectors carry surplus power, not base load.

A surprisingly good write up on some of the obstacles facing the wind industry in Ireland in the push to get to 80% renewable energy generation by 2030

http://www.rte.ie/news/2021/1230/1269242-wind-energy/

bk

Yes just read that, over the next few months, I think we will see a lot more articles like this.

We have the RESS 2 auctions coming up over the next few months and as a result we are going to see a lot of jostling for position. There are lots of proposed renewable projects, but of course not all will win the auctions.

I suspect their are concerns amongst the onshore wind farm developers that offshore on the East Coast will end up wining the majority of the RESS 2 auctions.

Then next 12 months will certainly be a VERY interesting space to watch with a lot happening.

I wonder if the pressure will motivate the govt to appoint more High Court judges as a way to reduce timelines or will it take another announcement from the President of High Court cancelling cases

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/courts/high-court/judicial-appointments-to-be-rushed-through-after-cases-cancelled-1.4688755

tom1ie

Whatever about electricity generation, how dependant are we on imported gas/oil for heating our homes?

If the Gulf Stream shuts down (it’s already showing signs of slowing and instability) Ireland faces much colder winters. Something along the lines of a Toronto winter.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/gulf-stream-collapse-could-leave-ireland-with-winters-as-cold-as-toronto-1.4641032

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118420695#Comment_118420695

data from 2017, but its overwhelmingly dependent on fuel for space heating (heating homes)

Electricity represented a paltry 4% of total space heating by energy - given that electricity heated homes may be better insulated, there may be a higher % of homes using solely electric heating, but that data isnt easily accessible.

https://www.seai.ie/data-and-insights/seai-statistics/key-statistics/residential/

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118420770#Comment_118420770

Electricity is likely also used in worse places Storage heaters, people buying the fans heaters to heat one room because it's expensive to heat a whole place etc.

Sam Russell

Wind really is variable. Today we are at 5% whereas the other day we were at 75% or so. This cold still weather is a killer for renewables.

We need to keep the gas peakers available as a backup.

bk

"We need to keep the gas peakers available as a backup."

While we certainly do need to keep Natural Gas power plants, they don't need to be peaker plants.

Weather prediction has become good enough that we can predict ahead of time when the wind will be low and fire up combined cycle plants before they are needed.

Gas peakers are now more expensive to operate then battery storage, so I expect they will be one of the first type of gas plants to go.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118420695#Comment_118420695

The Gulf Stream (AMOC) has been slowing for at least a thousand years and started slowing more rapidly in the mid 1800's, so it's not as a result of AGW from inreased atmospheric CO2. Furthermore, there seems to be a 400 or so year hysteresis effect between changes in the AMOC and major climate effects.

The Paleo record indicates the AMOC has always been very variable and closely associated with glaciation events. There is no way it's past variability had anything to do with human activity so blaming any current change, excuse the pun, on humans now, is horse manure, particularly since there is likely a 400 year lag the other way between climate and it's effect on the current.

I do think that we are more likely heading for the next glaciation event than heading for a global rising temperature catastrophe. Mind you, from a human standpoint, a glaciation event cooling would be a catastrophe wheras a few °C rise in global temperature wouldn't and would see in more good times as per the Medieval and Roman warm periods when humanity flourished and times were good.

Sam Russell

The Gulf Stream is being affected by the melting of the glaciers in the arctic regions and the retreat of the northern tundra areas. These are being affected by global warming caused by human activity. The Jet Stream is also being affected by human activity, and the JS and the GS changes may well be linked.

We only found out about the Jet Stream when we started flying Jet aircraft.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118420770#Comment_118420770

A lot of apartments use electricity because it would cost developers more to follow the safety regulations for gas.

Insulation should be used to replace heating where practicable.

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118421117#Comment_118421117

Where did I say anything about humans affecting the Gulf Stream?

Please quote that.

thanks.

Markcheese

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118420914#Comment_118420914

Honestly , batteries can do most of the peaking... Allowing combined cycle to be the most efficient back up - but chances are any new back up will be open cycle gas-

That does leave us very exposed to both gas price and gas supply ... I hope they'll just mothball moneypoint and tarbert with fuel on hand - just as an insurance policy .

tom1ie

So do we know how much gas we import?

RandomViewer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118421158#Comment_118421158

Japanese weather balloons recorded it in the 1920s,

bk

“Japanese weather balloons recorded it in the 1920s”

I hope people don’t mind an interesting side note, but the Japanese used this knowledge during WW2 to send high altitude balloons with incendiary explosives attached along the jet stream to bomb mainland US!

A pregnant lady and her 5 children were the only victims of these bombs. The only combat casualties on the mainland US of the war.

bk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118422997#Comment_118422997

At the moment about 40%. Though in future as the Corrib gas field runs out, that will increase.

On the other hand as we add more wind, the amount of gas we use will decrease. Eventually, hopefully, hydrogen, insulation, heat pumps and geothermal will replace it completely.

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118429620#Comment_118429620

Not sure how effective heat pumps are in any house that’s not A rated.

Heat pumps won’t replace gas as a primary heating source anytime soon as the cost to bring a 1960s house up to airtight A standards is astronomical.

Gas prices are going to be a major issue going forward.

RandomViewer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118431485#Comment_118431485

Get the notion EU will gift Putin Ukraine in exchange for fixed gas price,Merkel gone and the new guy seems weak

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118434007#Comment_118434007

I get the impression the US isn't happy about Nordstream 2 and isn't about to let the EU make any such decision, as it's not theirs to make.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118431485#Comment_118431485

The rush to ban gas and oil boilers is bound to cause issues in the medium term. The expense is also pretty ridiculous. Friend of mine built an A-rated house and while he is happy enough with the air pump he says he probably wouldn't go with it if starting over. The insulation makes the biggest difference.

There's too many use cases where it just doesn't make sense. Particularly in small houses, my place is drafty but 20 quid a week covers my gas on the coldest weeks and I WFH. Spending half the value of the house for tiny savings just doesn't make any sense.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118434452#Comment_118434452

If he's in an A rated home, anything more than a heat pump would be just plain silly

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118434187#Comment_118434187

One of the reasons is that the US is exporting LNG to Lithuania, Poland, and lots of other European countries.

The gas we import comes from Norway and the North Sea via Scotland.

bk

"Not sure how effective heat pumps are in any house that’s not A rated."

SEAI recommend a BER B2 or better.

Though I do wonder if we could see that change in time. If gas prices keep rising, it might be possible to operate the heat pump in less well insulated homes (you use more electricity) and/or it might just make the investment in insulation worth it even in those older homes.

Of course there are other options, only a few days ago it was posted about commercial scale geothermal, which could deliver district level heating.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118434857#Comment_118434857

I doubt it tbh, if gas prices go up then so will electricity prices. Heating won't be allowed to get much cheaper (aside from corrections from recent peak) any time soon.

EDIT: I think we've wasted a chance at picking off low-hanging fruit for a good while now. While big insulation jobs are great and all there's a shocking number of places still that are drafty etc. that €500 Would make a massive difference. But unfortunately the nonsense BER rating is all that matters. Can think of a couple of people who had their windows resealed and said it made a massive difference. It was replacing like with like so would have no effect on BER.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118434501#Comment_118434501

He's into his automation etc. and has data and reckons the amount of heat needed is tiny thanks to the insulation and he'd rather have a oil burner that he could service himself for however many decades to come. He's not losing sleep over it but the difference in upfront cost won't be recovered.

bk

“I doubt it tbh, if gas prices go up then so will electricity prices.”

For the moment yes, but not in the long term. The idea is to wean ourselves off using gas for electricity generation, which would make it cheaper to heat homes with electricity then gas.

You already see this in Norway, where despite much lower temperatures they mostly don’t use gas for heating, instead they mostly use insulation + heat pumps. Their electricity is cheaper then gas, due to it mostly being generated by renewables (mostly hydro).

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118434610#Comment_118434610

So we don’t import any gas from Russia?

Also what percentage do we import?

How self reliant are we?

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118435530#Comment_118435530

I found a dissertation that put the Norwegian use of domestic heat pumps at over a quarter of housholds, which of course means that more than half, don't, so what are you basing your claim of 'most' on?

"Heat pumps’ energy efficiency has also helped them to become desirable as consumer items. The number of heat pumps installed in Norwegian homes has greatly increased over the past decade. Over a quarter of households in Norway now own some form of heat pump, the majority of which are air-to-air pumps (Halvorson and Larsen 2013:4). Despite the theoretical benefits of heat pumps’ energy efficiency there is still debate about whether their use in domestic settings actually leads to a net reduction in energy use. A recent study published by Statistics Norway found that the actual energy-savings of homes with heat pumps was close to zero (Halvorson and Larsen 2013), and a study conducted in Denmark produced similar results (Christensen et al. 2013). Studies like these are raising difficult 2 questions regarding the actual, as opposed to theorised, effects of heat pumps on domestic energy consumption. "

https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/37989/Heat-Pumps-and-Household-Energy-Consumption-in-Norway.pdf?sequence=1

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118436430#Comment_118436430

No , not directly but there's a knock on effect on prices.

https://www.seai.ie/data-and-insights/seai-statistics/monthly-energy-data/gas/

Very roughly 50% from Corrib field which is emptying but Barryroe might be developed. And very roughly 50% of gas is used for generating electricity. Green Hydrogen could be used to stretch gas in domestic supplies and reduce demand for it for electrical production.

2021 Energy in Ireland https://www.seai.ie/publications/Energy-in-Ireland-2021_Final.pdf

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118436714#Comment_118436714

Hmmmm so we are 50% reliant on importing gas at ever increasing prices and the other 50% is a dwindling resource but we may develop Barryroe which would keep us at 50% self sufficient.

That sounds like increasing gas prices to me going forward.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118434187#Comment_118434187

? Its not the EU's decision but it is the US's decision to make? Is that your point.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118437112#Comment_118437112

Gas prices are set by the world market, not by the local market. And as we build out wind, we of course will need less gas.

Even now with very few wind farms built relative to what we could achieve with I regularly see us above 50% and often 70%. Today as midnight 7/8th Jan I see this:

Banana Republic 1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118434187#Comment_118434187

The US just want to keep Germany and Russia down its in there strategic interests

Banana Republic 1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118435530#Comment_118435530

The thing about Norway is there stinking rich, they have a massive sovereign wealth fund.

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118437259#Comment_118437259

How will we need less gas for domestic heating due to building more wind farms?

Heat pumps?

They don’t work in the overwhelming existing housing stock we have.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118437928#Comment_118437928

I never complain about mistakes in other people's post because I make enough of my own but you have used "there" instead of "they're" in two posts in quick succession.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118438120#Comment_118438120

Apparently, all owners of existing housing, including those with multi decade mortgages, car loans, have a near infinite supply of spare cash which they can use to retrofit their homes to an A rating and the tens of thousands required to retrofit heat pumps. Didn't you get the memo?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118438120#Comment_118438120

The heating system needs to be electrified once renewables start to dominate. That’s the plan.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118438269#Comment_118438269

It doesn’t need heat pumps if the source of energy is renewable, of course.

bk

“I get the impression the US isn't happy about Nordstream 2 and isn't about to let the EU make any such decision, as it's not theirs to make.”

The US and Germany have already come to an agreement to allow Nord Stream 2 to go ahead.

It is currently being held up by the German energy regulator, nothing to do with the US.

bk

“I found a dissertation that put the Norwegian use of domestic heat pumps at over a quarter of housholds, which of course means that more than half, don't, so what are you basing your claim of 'most' on?”

So you think that because only 1/4 of homes use heat pumps that the rest must be using oil and gas!

Well you would be wrong, once again.

As of 2020 Norway banned the use of oil and gas for home heating. The vast majority of homes in Norway use district heating systems. They are the missing 3/4 that you are talking about.

Basically any home in a city or town is on a district heating system. One off homes outside towns that are too far from such systems are the ones that use individual heat pumps.

“Heating with gas is not common in Norway. There is little infrastructure for gas distribution and form 2017 it is prohibited to install heating installation based on fossil fuels. Most of the domestic gas consumption in Norway is related to industrial use.”

https://energifaktanorge.no/en/norsk-energiforsyning/varmeforsyning/

This approach of district heating systems might be worth considering for our towns and cities. I believe the government plan to subsidise the upgrade of installation + heat pumps in 500,000 rural Irish homes.

Sam Russell

Heat pumps are more efficient the closer the 'hot' temperature is to the 'cold' temperature.

They are also more suitable to homes that have a BER rating of 'A'. So if you have a river flowing in your back garden (so the cold end never goes below zero, and underfloor heating, so you water temperature can be kept below 50 degrees, and you home is A rated, then a heat pump could well be for you. A heat recovery ventilation system would also help.

However, all that implies a new build. While you are at it, install PV panels on the roof.

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118439572#Comment_118439572

Isn’t there a district heat system in tallaght from the Amazon plant?

Not sure of the specifics of it though? Who owns the pipes, council or Amazon?

Do homeowners buy the heat off the council or Amazon, how much is it, etc etc.

But we are absolutely miles away from that scenario having any impact nationally in Ireland.

Same way heat pumps just won’t work in the majority of homes.

Same way we are over 50% (and that will possibly increase) on imported gas, which is ever increasing in price.

Capt'n Midnight

There was district heating in Ballymun from the central power station.

But the radiators were embedded in the walls so you couldn't control the temperature. All the windows open in summer and IIRC they were the largest buyers of tropical fish for aquariums because it was always warn.

So how would metering and control and costing of waste heat work.

Ear to the Ground had a report on how waste heat from commercial premises could keep most of the city warm based on the energy used by households.

Funding from banks for polluting industries and energy sources is set to become scarce

https://www.ft.com/content/73615213-08ce-4786-9b8c-773029552bbc

Apogee

Unfortunately, don't have access to this SBP report on ESB cancelling three more contracts for gas power plants:

The ESB has pulled out of delivering three more gas power plants in the Dublin region for this year in a move that will exacerbate an already constrained electricity supply situation in the capital.

The plants would have had a combined power generation capacity of close to 200MW and were meant to be in place by the end of this year.

The Business Post previously revealed that the semi-state energy company had pulled out of a contract to build two gas power plants in North Wall due to finish construction in 2022, which would have had a combined power...

https://www.businesspost.ie/energy/esb-cancels-three-more-contracts-to-build-gas-power-plants-in-dublin-463a0ecd

Markcheese

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118438269#Comment_118438269

Heat pumps may be wonderful - but the big improvement would come from insulation and airtightness - and that is possible - not always dirt cheap but over time people refurbish their homes - (that in itself would reduce the gas consumption) - air to air heat pumps are relatively cheap to buy and install and can work well in well insulated houses ...