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May 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 22-04-2019 3:17pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,201 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Due to a planned absence from the internet from now (bye) to the 30th or possibly later, I am posting the May contest early. If somebody reading this would perhaps bump it to the top of the menu around the 28th, that would be helpful.

    1. Predict the IMT (Irish Mean Temperature), the average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon. The 1981-2010 normal value for May is 11.1 C. (max 25 points)

    2. Predict the MAX (highest temperature at any regular reporting site as confirmed in the Monthly Summary of Met-Eireann) during May. (max 20 points)

    3. Predict the MIN (lowest temperature etc, see above) (max 20 points)

    4. Predict the PRC in May (rainfall and liquid equivalent of any frozen precip) as a percentage of normal values. The baseline for this is a grid of eleven stations, the five mentioned in part one above, and also Belmullet, Malin Head, Valentia, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, and Cork. (max 15 points)

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) for May as a percentage of normal values at six locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Cork, Shannon, Valentia). (max 10 points)

    6. For a BONUS question (10 points), what will be the heaviest 24 hour rainfall (mm) and on what day of the week (you have four or five chances to be right) ... amount is worth seven of ten points and day is worth three, two for being a day out and one for being two days out on that. Superbonus of 1 or 2 available.

    The usual late penalties will apply after 0300h Wednesday 1st of May. Good luck!

    Just in case these are default entries (may totally revise mine) ...

    MTC __________ 10.8 _ 24.0 _ -1.5 _ 140 _ 090 ___ 45.0 _ Thursday

    Normal ________ 11.1 _ 25.0 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 40.0 _ weekend (j/k)

    Good luck !!


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,714 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal ________ 11.5 _ 24.5 _ -0.5 _ 88 _ 120 ___ 32.0 _ Wednesday


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,563 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ____ 12.0 ___ 25.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 25.0 Sunday (when I'll probably be on the golf course)


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry____ 11.5 ___ 24.2 ___ 0.2___ 110___ 97 ___ 39.0 Monday


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels_ 11.6_ 23_ -0.5 _ 92__110 ___ 24 Friday


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,760 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire____ 11.7 ___ 23.4 ___ 0.5___ 107___ 99 ___ 23.0 Wednesday


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public__________ 11.3 _ 25.6 _ -2.7 _ 119 _ 96 ___ 47.2 _ Friday


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Suflower3 ________ 11.8 _ 24.0 _ 0.2_ 88_ 102 ___ 25 _tuesday


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,860 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002 __________ 11.5 _ 24.0 _ -1.3 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 23.0 _ Friday

    If changing something isn't allowed, then my original minimum temperature was -0.3c


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,557 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen __________ 10.6 _ 22.8 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 32.0 _ Friday

    Hopefully reverse psychology works for the third May in a row as I predicted poor Mays in 2017 and 2018 :P

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,996 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac 12.1 _ 26.3 _ -0.9_ 103 _ 110 ___ 42.0 _ saturday (newport)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 11.6 ___ 25 ___ 0.5 ___ 110 ___ 115 ___ 30 ___ Wednesday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    JCXBXC__________ 11.6 _ 24.9 _ -2.2 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 22.0 _ Saturday


  • Registered Users Posts: 351 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways ________ 11.2 _ 26.0 _ -3.0 _ 130 _ 88 ___ 50.0 _ Monday. Monday! Or was it Tuesday?


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,111 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH __________ 11.6 _ 24.2 _ -1.8 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 14.2 _ Thursday


  • Registered Users Posts: 353 ✭✭ YanSno


    YanSno__________ 9.5 _ 22.5 _ -4.5 _ 130 _ 090 ___ 22.5 _ Saturday


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa____ 11.5 ___ 25.6 ___ -0.5 ___ 119___ 105 ___ 49 Wednesday


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir _______ 11.8 _ 24.6 _ -0.3 _ 87 _ 112 ___ 26.5 _ Wet & Windy Wednesday


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts __________ 10.7_ 23.0 _ -0.5 _ 90 _ 110 ___ 41.0 _ Tuesday


  • Registered Users Posts: 748 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    Adam240610___11.4__23.8__1.1__100__97__38__Tuesday


  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 __________ 11.0 _ 23.5 _ -1.0 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 40.0 _ Tuesday


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  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner. _____11.9____25_____-1.4_____95____105______29monday


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn_________ 10.4 _ 23.0 _ -1.2 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 35.0 _Sunday


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,201 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for May 2019


    FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max precip (mm), day of week


    john mac _____________ 12.1 _ 26.3 _ -0.9 _ 103 _ 110 ___ 42.0 _ Saturday

    Rikand _______________ 12.0 _ 25.0 __ 0.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 25.0 _ Sunday

    MrSkinner ____ (-1) ____ 11.9 _ 25.0 _ -1.4 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 29.0 _ Monday

    Tae laidir _____________ 11.8 _ 24.6 _ -0.3 _ 087 _ 112 ___ 26.5 _ Wednesday

    Sunflower3 ____________11.8 _ 24.0 _+0.2 _ 088 _ 102 ___ 25.0 _ Tuesday

    Rameire ______________ 11.7 _ 23.4 _+0.5 _ 107 _ 099 ___ 23.0 _ Wednesday

    Kindred Spirit __________11.6 _ 25.0 _+0.5 _ 110 _ 115 ___ 30.0 _ Wednesday

    JCXBXC _______________11.6 _ 24.9 _ -2.2 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 22.0 _ Saturday

    DOCARCH _____________11.6 _ 24.2 _ -1.8 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 14.2 _ Thursday

    200motels ____________ 11.6 _ 23.0 _ -0.5 _ 092 _ 110 ___ 24.0 _ Friday

    Dacogawa ____________ 11.5 _ 25.6 _ -0.5 _ 119 _ 105 ___ 49.0 _ Wednesday

    Bsal _________________ 11.5 _ 24.5 _ -0.5 _ 088 _ 120 ___ 32.0 _ Wednesday


    ___ Con Sensus ________11.5 _ 24.2 _ -0.9 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 32.0 _ (see notes)


    Pauldry _______________11.5 _ 24.2 _+0.2 _ 110 _ 097 ___ 39.0 _ Monday

    Artane2002 ___________ 11.5 _ 24.0 _ -1.3 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 23.0 _ Friday

    Adam240610 __________11.4 _ 23.8 _+1.1 _ 100 _ 097 ___ 38.0 _ Tuesday

    Joe Public _____________11.3 _ 25.6 _ -2.7 _ 119 _ 096 ___ 47.2 _ Friday

    waterways ____________ 11.2 _ 26.0 _ -3.0 _ 130 _ 088 ___ 50.0 _ Monday


    ___ NormaL ___________ 11.1 _ 25.0 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 40.0 _ (scores 1/3)


    Dasa29 ______________ 11.0 _ 23.5 _ -1.0 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 40.0 _ Tuesday

    M.T. Cranium __________10.8 _ 24.0 _ -1.5 _ 140 _ 090 ___ 45.0 _ Thursday

    mickger844posts _______10.7 _ 23.0 _ -0.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 41.0 _ Tuesday

    sryanbruen ___________ 10.6 _ 22.8 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 32.0 _ Friday

    Jpmarn ____ (-2) ______ 10.4 _ 23.0 _ -1.2 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 35.0 _ Sunday

    BLIZZARD7__ (-10) _____ 9.7 _ 25.0 _ -4.3 _ 120 _ 115 ___ 47.0 _ Monday

    YanSno _______________ 9.5 _ 22.5 _ -4.5 _ 130 _ 090 ___ 22.5 _ Saturday

    ____________________________________________________________

    Con Sensus is median of 24 forecasts.

    Choice of day was 5 for Wed (con will score 3/3), 4 for Monday, Tuesday, or Friday (con will score 2/3), 3 for Saturday (con will score 1/3) and 2 for Sunday or Thursday (con will score zero). Normal will score 1/3 for any outcome.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    -0.7c min already (oops) in Markree

    But this will be beaten as we see an Arctic dominated first half of May


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,201 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Like a rented mule.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    Ahh keep forgetting these...

    BLIZZARD7_______________ 9.7 _ 25.0c _ -4.3 _ 120 _ 115 ___ 47.00 _ Monday


  • Registered Users Posts: 748 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    pauldry wrote: »
    -0.7c min already (oops) in Markree

    But this will be beaten as we see an Arctic dominated first half of May

    Good time to realise I didn't put a minus Infront of my 1.1 for minimum haha


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,201 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    A notable MIN will be registered today, -3 was the hourly at 0600h at Markree and Mountdillon.

    Perhaps somebody could post the record low for May in Ireland as a comparison. We have two forecasts in the contest below -4, I was wondering if it had ever been that cold in May.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,111 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    Lowest recorded May temp was -5.6c, on May 4th 1979, at Glenties, Donegal.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,201 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Thanks for that DOCARCH, looking back at previous contest results, only one May has had a MIN comparable to this year, namely 2012.

    These are the MINs going back from 2018 to 2011:

    -1.2, -1.5, -1.4, -0.8, +1.7, -0.5, -3.6, +2.1.

    I was going to go a bit further but the archives get all scrambled up at some point.

    That -3.6 in 2012 was on the 6th at Casement.

    This year we reached -3.1 on 5th at Mountdillon. Hourly of -2 at Markree on 6th may indicate another one to watch perhaps.


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