May 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Due to a planned absence from the internet from now (bye) to the 30th or possibly later, I am posting the May contest early. If somebody reading this would perhaps bump it to the top of the menu around the 28th, that would be helpful.

1. Predict the IMT (Irish Mean Temperature), the average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon. The 1981-2010 normal value for May is 11.1 C. (max 25 points)

2. Predict the MAX (highest temperature at any regular reporting site as confirmed in the Monthly Summary of Met-Eireann) during May. (max 20 points)

3. Predict the MIN (lowest temperature etc, see above) (max 20 points)

4. Predict the PRC in May (rainfall and liquid equivalent of any frozen precip) as a percentage of normal values. The baseline for this is a grid of eleven stations, the five mentioned in part one above, and also Belmullet, Malin Head, Valentia, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, and Cork. (max 15 points)

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) for May as a percentage of normal values at six locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Cork, Shannon, Valentia). (max 10 points)

6. For a BONUS question (10 points), what will be the heaviest 24 hour rainfall (mm) and on what day of the week (you have four or five chances to be right) ... amount is worth seven of ten points and day is worth three, two for being a day out and one for being two days out on that. Superbonus of 1 or 2 available.

The usual late penalties will apply after 0300h Wednesday 1st of May. Good luck!

Just in case these are default entries (may totally revise mine) ...

MTC __________ 10.8 _ 24.0 _ -1.5 _ 140 _ 090 ___ 45.0 _ Thursday

Normal ________ 11.1 _ 25.0 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 40.0 _ weekend (j/k)

Good luck !!

Bsal

Bsal ________ 11.5 _ 24.5 _ -0.5 _ 88 _ 120 ___ 32.0 _ Wednesday

Rikand

Rikand ____ 12.0 ___ 25.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 25.0 Sunday (when I'll probably be on the golf course)

pauldry

Pauldry____ 11.5 ___ 24.2 ___ 0.2___ 110___ 97 ___ 39.0 Monday

200motels

200motels_ 11.6_ 23_ -0.5 _ 92__110 ___ 24 Friday

rameire

Rameire____ 11.7 ___ 23.4 ___ 0.5___ 107___ 99 ___ 23.0 Wednesday

Joe Public

Joe Public__________ 11.3 _ 25.6 _ -2.7 _ 119 _ 96 ___ 47.2 _ Friday

sunflower3

Suflower3 ________ 11.8 _ 24.0 _ 0.2_ 88_ 102 ___ 25 _tuesday

Artane2002

Artane2002 __________ 11.5 _ 24.0 _ -1.3 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 23.0 _ Friday

If changing something isn't allowed, then my original minimum temperature was -0.3c

sryanbruen

sryanbruen __________ 10.6 _ 22.8 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 32.0 _ Friday

Hopefully reverse psychology works for the third May in a row as I predicted poor Mays in 2017 and 2018 :P

John mac

john mac 12.1 _ 26.3 _ -0.9_ 103 _ 110 ___ 42.0 _ saturday (newport)

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 11.6 ___ 25 ___ 0.5 ___ 110 ___ 115 ___ 30 ___ Wednesday.

JCX BXC

JCXBXC__________ 11.6 _ 24.9 _ -2.2 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 22.0 _ Saturday

waterways

waterways ________ 11.2 _ 26.0 _ -3.0 _ 130 _ 88 ___ 50.0 _ Monday. Monday! Or was it Tuesday?

DOCARCH

DOCARCH __________ 11.6 _ 24.2 _ -1.8 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 14.2 _ Thursday

YanSno

YanSno__________ 9.5 _ 22.5 _ -4.5 _ 130 _ 090 ___ 22.5 _ Saturday

dacogawa

Dacogawa____ 11.5 ___ 25.6 ___ -0.5 ___ 119___ 105 ___ 49 Wednesday

Tae laidir

Tae laidir _______ 11.8 _ 24.6 _ -0.3 _ 87 _ 112 ___ 26.5 _ Wet & Windy Wednesday

mickger844posts

mickger844posts __________ 10.7_ 23.0 _ -0.5 _ 90 _ 110 ___ 41.0 _ Tuesday

adam240610

Adam240610___11.4__23.8__1.1__100__97__38__Tuesday

dasa29

Dasa29 __________ 11.0 _ 23.5 _ -1.0 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 40.0 _ Tuesday

mrskinner

Skinner. _____11.9____25_____-1.4_____95____105______29monday

Jpmarn

Jpmarn_________ 10.4 _ 23.0 _ -1.2 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 35.0 _Sunday

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for May 2019


FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max precip (mm), day of week


john mac _____________ 12.1 _ 26.3 _ -0.9 _ 103 _ 110 ___ 42.0 _ Saturday

Rikand _______________ 12.0 _ 25.0 __ 0.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 25.0 _ Sunday

MrSkinner ____ (-1) ____ 11.9 _ 25.0 _ -1.4 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 29.0 _ Monday

Tae laidir _____________ 11.8 _ 24.6 _ -0.3 _ 087 _ 112 ___ 26.5 _ Wednesday

Sunflower3 ____________11.8 _ 24.0 _+0.2 _ 088 _ 102 ___ 25.0 _ Tuesday

Rameire ______________ 11.7 _ 23.4 _+0.5 _ 107 _ 099 ___ 23.0 _ Wednesday

Kindred Spirit __________11.6 _ 25.0 _+0.5 _ 110 _ 115 ___ 30.0 _ Wednesday

JCXBXC _______________11.6 _ 24.9 _ -2.2 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 22.0 _ Saturday

DOCARCH _____________11.6 _ 24.2 _ -1.8 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 14.2 _ Thursday

200motels ____________ 11.6 _ 23.0 _ -0.5 _ 092 _ 110 ___ 24.0 _ Friday

Dacogawa ____________ 11.5 _ 25.6 _ -0.5 _ 119 _ 105 ___ 49.0 _ Wednesday

Bsal _________________ 11.5 _ 24.5 _ -0.5 _ 088 _ 120 ___ 32.0 _ Wednesday


___ Con Sensus ________11.5 _ 24.2 _ -0.9 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 32.0 _ (see notes)


Pauldry _______________11.5 _ 24.2 _+0.2 _ 110 _ 097 ___ 39.0 _ Monday

Artane2002 ___________ 11.5 _ 24.0 _ -1.3 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 23.0 _ Friday

Adam240610 __________11.4 _ 23.8 _+1.1 _ 100 _ 097 ___ 38.0 _ Tuesday

Joe Public _____________11.3 _ 25.6 _ -2.7 _ 119 _ 096 ___ 47.2 _ Friday

waterways ____________ 11.2 _ 26.0 _ -3.0 _ 130 _ 088 ___ 50.0 _ Monday


___ NormaL ___________ 11.1 _ 25.0 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 40.0 _ (scores 1/3)


Dasa29 ______________ 11.0 _ 23.5 _ -1.0 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 40.0 _ Tuesday

M.T. Cranium __________10.8 _ 24.0 _ -1.5 _ 140 _ 090 ___ 45.0 _ Thursday

mickger844posts _______10.7 _ 23.0 _ -0.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 41.0 _ Tuesday

sryanbruen ___________ 10.6 _ 22.8 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 32.0 _ Friday

Jpmarn ____ (-2) ______ 10.4 _ 23.0 _ -1.2 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 35.0 _ Sunday

BLIZZARD7__ (-10) _____ 9.7 _ 25.0 _ -4.3 _ 120 _ 115 ___ 47.0 _ Monday

YanSno _______________ 9.5 _ 22.5 _ -4.5 _ 130 _ 090 ___ 22.5 _ Saturday

____________________________________________________________

Con Sensus is median of 24 forecasts.

Choice of day was 5 for Wed (con will score 3/3), 4 for Monday, Tuesday, or Friday (con will score 2/3), 3 for Saturday (con will score 1/3) and 2 for Sunday or Thursday (con will score zero). Normal will score 1/3 for any outcome.

pauldry

-0.7c min already (oops) in Markree

But this will be beaten as we see an Arctic dominated first half of May

M.T. Cranium

Like a rented mule.

BLIZZARD7

Ahh keep forgetting these...

BLIZZARD7_______________ 9.7 _ 25.0c _ -4.3 _ 120 _ 115 ___ 47.00 _ Monday

adam240610

pauldry wrote: »

-0.7c min already (oops) in Markree

But this will be beaten as we see an Arctic dominated first half of May

Good time to realise I didn't put a minus Infront of my 1.1 for minimum haha

M.T. Cranium

A notable MIN will be registered today, -3 was the hourly at 0600h at Markree and Mountdillon.

Perhaps somebody could post the record low for May in Ireland as a comparison. We have two forecasts in the contest below -4, I was wondering if it had ever been that cold in May.

DOCARCH

Lowest recorded May temp was -5.6c, on May 4th 1979, at Glenties, Donegal.

M.T. Cranium

Thanks for that DOCARCH, looking back at previous contest results, only one May has had a MIN comparable to this year, namely 2012.

These are the MINs going back from 2018 to 2011:

-1.2, -1.5, -1.4, -0.8, +1.7, -0.5, -3.6, +2.1.

I was going to go a bit further but the archives get all scrambled up at some point.

That -3.6 in 2012 was on the 6th at Casement.

This year we reached -3.1 on 5th at Mountdillon. Hourly of -2 at Markree on 6th may indicate another one to watch perhaps.

Tae laidir

Mt Dillon confirmed at - 3.1 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After one week ...

IMT on 8.3, which is 2.0 below normal.

MIN --3.1 (MAX not in view yet)

PRC only 22% by end of 7th, probably about 50% now.

SUN 113% of normal (677/600).

pauldry

Rain of 15.5 Roches Pt Wednesday

That will never hold up

Joe Public

Malin Head 17.2mm rain 9th May

Tae laidir

Claremorris reached 20.6 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

Thanks for keeping an eye on data, I am in the middle of a move and will be off line for a couple of days starting today. Hoping to post the second week stats before that happens. Should be up and running by Friday if all goes well.

Tae laidir

Mt Dillon 21.9 yesterday.
Hope the move is moving!

M.T. Cranium

Thanks, the move is complete and the internet service has resumed, but I wasn't able to catch any data yesterday so ...

IMT after 15 days is 9.2 C. The past week (9th to 15th) averaged 10.4 which is 0.5 below normal.

MAX 21.9 and MIN -3.1.

PRC is estimated to be 40% of normal through fifteen days. The past week (9th to 15th) averaged about 26% of normal. The 8th which is in neither week that I reported on was relatively wet and that got the average up higher than either the first week (22%) or the 9th to 15th (26%).

SUN is estimated to be at 132% of normal. This past week (9th to 15th) was very sunny at 168.5% (1011/600). The 8th was relatively cloudy (20% of normal mostly at Belmullet) so the weighted average of first week at 113%, 9th to 15th at 168.5% and the intervening day at 20% gives 132% of normal.

pauldry

Im hvn a car crash of a boards contest this year :P

M.T. Cranium

Markree reported 18.0 mm rain on Thursday 16th.

M.T. Cranium

I would usually be posting an update today for three weeks but we are running one day behind on that schedule due to my recent move, so just a note that the IMT has now reached 9.84 C and the past week remained quite dry with near normal sunshine amounts, so the report tomorrow is likely to come in at around 40% for PRC (month to date) and 120% for SUN.

Joe Public

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

so the report tomorrow is likely to come in at around 40% for PRC (month to date) and 120% for SUN.

Looking like mercy on the rain front

Tae laidir

Joe Public wrote:

Looking like mercy on the rain front

Looking like no mercy rule for farmers again?

M.T. Cranium

After 22 days then ...

IMT on 10.0 C. The past week 11.5 C, bang on normal for the period.

MAX and MIN likely unchanged from last report (21.9 and -3.1).

PRC has fallen to 30% of normal, this past seven days only about 17% of normal. Our lowest forecasts were in the mid-80s and our consensus 105%. Hmm.

SUN is around 120% of normal with this past week somewhat below the average at 93% (560/600).

Joe Public

I took the liberty of posting this as it's a bit rare in late May, maybe today will give the highest rainfall of the month.

Celbridge, Co. Kildare

M.T. Cranium

13.7 mm at Markree was Monday's top amount. Not quite the highest for the month.

Perhaps today or tomorrow will set the mark.

June forecast contest will be posted Thursday morning around 0500h I hope. On the road, need to think up a bonus question.

pauldry

Bonus

How many dry days with less than 1mm of rain in Markree in June?

Joe Public

Bonus question June, what will be the highest temp at Shannon on June 5th which is the day Trump is due to arrive.

pauldry

Newport wettest for month 21.7mm yesterday. Today could match or beat it there.

Tae laidir

Yes, Rainfall Radar showing a bad day.
Any Newportonians or Belmulletians out there?