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May 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Due to a planned absence from the internet from now (bye) to the 30th or possibly later, I am posting the May contest early. If somebody reading this would perhaps bump it to the top of the menu around the 28th, that would be helpful.

1. Predict the IMT (Irish Mean Temperature), the average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon. The 1981-2010 normal value for May is 11.1 C. (max 25 points)

2. Predict the MAX (highest temperature at any regular reporting site as confirmed in the Monthly Summary of Met-Eireann) during May. (max 20 points)

3. Predict the MIN (lowest temperature etc, see above) (max 20 points)

4. Predict the PRC in May (rainfall and liquid equivalent of any frozen precip) as a percentage of normal values. The baseline for this is a grid of eleven stations, the five mentioned in part one above, and also Belmullet, Malin Head, Valentia, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, and Cork. (max 15 points)

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) for May as a percentage of normal values at six locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Cork, Shannon, Valentia). (max 10 points)

6. For a BONUS question (10 points), what will be the heaviest 24 hour rainfall (mm) and on what day of the week (you have four or five chances to be right) ... amount is worth seven of ten points and day is worth three, two for being a day out and one for being two days out on that. Superbonus of 1 or 2 available.

The usual late penalties will apply after 0300h Wednesday 1st of May. Good luck!

Just in case these are default entries (may totally revise mine) ...

MTC __________ 10.8 _ 24.0 _ -1.5 _ 140 _ 090 ___ 45.0 _ Thursday

Normal ________ 11.1 _ 25.0 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 40.0 _ weekend (j/k)

Good luck !!

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M.T. Cranium

A notable MIN will be registered today, -3 was the hourly at 0600h at Markree and Mountdillon.

Perhaps somebody could post the record low for May in Ireland as a comparison. We have two forecasts in the contest below -4, I was wondering if it had ever been that cold in May.

adam240610

pauldry wrote: »

-0.7c min already (oops) in Markree

But this will be beaten as we see an Arctic dominated first half of May

Good time to realise I didn't put a minus Infront of my 1.1 for minimum haha

BLIZZARD7

Ahh keep forgetting these...

BLIZZARD7_______________ 9.7 _ 25.0c _ -4.3 _ 120 _ 115 ___ 47.00 _ Monday

M.T. Cranium

Like a rented mule.

pauldry

-0.7c min already (oops) in Markree

But this will be beaten as we see an Arctic dominated first half of May

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for May 2019

FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max precip (mm), day of week

john mac _____________ 12.1 _ 26.3 _ -0.9 _ 103 _ 110 ___ 42.0 _ Saturday

Rikand _______________ 12.0 _ 25.0 __ 0.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 25.0 _ Sunday

MrSkinner ____ (-1) ____ 11.9 _ 25.0 _ -1.4 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 29.0 _ Monday

Tae laidir _____________ 11.8 _ 24.6 _ -0.3 _ 087 _ 112 ___ 26.5 _ Wednesday

Sunflower3 ____________11.8 _ 24.0 _+0.2 _ 088 _ 102 ___ 25.0 _ Tuesday

Rameire ______________ 11.7 _ 23.4 _+0.5 _ 107 _ 099 ___ 23.0 _ Wednesday

Kindred Spirit __________11.6 _ 25.0 _+0.5 _ 110 _ 115 ___ 30.0 _ Wednesday

JCXBXC _______________11.6 _ 24.9 _ -2.2 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 22.0 _ Saturday

DOCARCH _____________11.6 _ 24.2 _ -1.8 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 14.2 _ Thursday

200motels ____________ 11.6 _ 23.0 _ -0.5 _ 092 _ 110 ___ 24.0 _ Friday

Dacogawa ____________ 11.5 _ 25.6 _ -0.5 _ 119 _ 105 ___ 49.0 _ Wednesday

Bsal _________________ 11.5 _ 24.5 _ -0.5 _ 088 _ 120 ___ 32.0 _ Wednesday

___ Con Sensus ________11.5 _ 24.2 _ -0.9 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 32.0 _ (see notes)

Pauldry _______________11.5 _ 24.2 _+0.2 _ 110 _ 097 ___ 39.0 _ Monday

Artane2002 ___________ 11.5 _ 24.0 _ -1.3 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 23.0 _ Friday

Adam240610 __________11.4 _ 23.8 _+1.1 _ 100 _ 097 ___ 38.0 _ Tuesday

Joe Public _____________11.3 _ 25.6 _ -2.7 _ 119 _ 096 ___ 47.2 _ Friday

waterways ____________ 11.2 _ 26.0 _ -3.0 _ 130 _ 088 ___ 50.0 _ Monday

___ NormaL ___________ 11.1 _ 25.0 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 40.0 _ (scores 1/3)

Dasa29 ______________ 11.0 _ 23.5 _ -1.0 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 40.0 _ Tuesday

M.T. Cranium __________10.8 _ 24.0 _ -1.5 _ 140 _ 090 ___ 45.0 _ Thursday

mickger844posts _______10.7 _ 23.0 _ -0.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 41.0 _ Tuesday

sryanbruen ___________ 10.6 _ 22.8 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 32.0 _ Friday

Jpmarn ____ (-2) ______ 10.4 _ 23.0 _ -1.2 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 35.0 _ Sunday

BLIZZARD7__ (-10) _____ 9.7 _ 25.0 _ -4.3 _ 120 _ 115 ___ 47.0 _ Monday

YanSno _______________ 9.5 _ 22.5 _ -4.5 _ 130 _ 090 ___ 22.5 _ Saturday

____________________________________________________________

Con Sensus is median of 24 forecasts.

Choice of day was 5 for Wed (con will score 3/3), 4 for Monday, Tuesday, or Friday (con will score 2/3), 3 for Saturday (con will score 1/3) and 2 for Sunday or Thursday (con will score zero). Normal will score 1/3 for any outcome.

Jpmarn

Jpmarn_________ 10.4 _ 23.0 _ -1.2 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 35.0 _Sunday

mrskinner

Skinner. _____11.9____25_____-1.4_____95____105______29monday

dasa29

Dasa29 __________ 11.0 _ 23.5 _ -1.0 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 40.0 _ Tuesday

adam240610

Adam240610___11.4__23.8__1.1__100__97__38__Tuesday

mickger844posts

mickger844posts __________ 10.7_ 23.0 _ -0.5 _ 90 _ 110 ___ 41.0 _ Tuesday

Tae laidir

Tae laidir _______ 11.8 _ 24.6 _ -0.3 _ 87 _ 112 ___ 26.5 _ Wet & Windy Wednesday

dacogawa

Dacogawa____ 11.5 ___ 25.6 ___ -0.5 ___ 119___ 105 ___ 49 Wednesday

YanSno

YanSno__________ 9.5 _ 22.5 _ -4.5 _ 130 _ 090 ___ 22.5 _ Saturday

DOCARCH

DOCARCH __________ 11.6 _ 24.2 _ -1.8 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 14.2 _ Thursday

waterways

waterways ________ 11.2 _ 26.0 _ -3.0 _ 130 _ 88 ___ 50.0 _ Monday. Monday! Or was it Tuesday?

JCX BXC

JCXBXC__________ 11.6 _ 24.9 _ -2.2 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 22.0 _ Saturday

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 11.6 ___ 25 ___ 0.5 ___ 110 ___ 115 ___ 30 ___ Wednesday.

John mac

john mac 12.1 _ 26.3 _ -0.9_ 103 _ 110 ___ 42.0 _ saturday (newport)

sryanbruen

sryanbruen __________ 10.6 _ 22.8 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 32.0 _ Friday

Hopefully reverse psychology works for the third May in a row as I predicted poor Mays in 2017 and 2018 :P

Artane2002

Artane2002 __________ 11.5 _ 24.0 _ -1.3 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 23.0 _ Friday

If changing something isn't allowed, then my original minimum temperature was -0.3c

sunflower3

Suflower3 ________ 11.8 _ 24.0 _ 0.2_ 88_ 102 ___ 25 _tuesday

Joe Public

Joe Public__________ 11.3 _ 25.6 _ -2.7 _ 119 _ 96 ___ 47.2 _ Friday

rameire

Rameire____ 11.7 ___ 23.4 ___ 0.5___ 107___ 99 ___ 23.0 Wednesday

200motels

200motels_ 11.6_ 23_ -0.5 _ 92__110 ___ 24 Friday

pauldry

Pauldry____ 11.5 ___ 24.2 ___ 0.2___ 110___ 97 ___ 39.0 Monday

Rikand

Rikand ____ 12.0 ___ 25.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 25.0 Sunday (when I'll probably be on the golf course)

Bsal

Bsal ________ 11.5 _ 24.5 _ -0.5 _ 88 _ 120 ___ 32.0 _ Wednesday