King George/Stephens Day 2018

Andrew00

As there’s no dedicated King George thread I thought I’d set this one up..

Might Bite - 5/2
Politologue - 5/1
Waiting Patiently - 9/2
Bristol De Mai - 6/1
Thistlecrack - 6/1
Native River - 7/1
Clan Des Obeaux - 16/1

33/1 bar

Some field, have spent all week looking at it and still can’t pick one that I’m sure of, although starting to edge towards Thistlecrack e/w

FatRat

Have mad my feelings known towards Thistlecrack in other threads. But looking again now with the field and prices laid out in front of me I have to say it is total lunacy backing Thistlecrack ahead of Native River. In fact Native River represents the only value in that race currently.

15/2 with Skybet now. How likely is he to go do people think? Or should I take the hit on a lower price when someone goes NRNB?

Andrew00

FatRat wrote: »

Have mad my feelings known towards Thistlecrack in other threads. But looking again now with the field and prices laid out in front of me I have to say it is total lunacy backing Thistlecrack ahead of Native River. In fact Native River represents the only value in that race currently.

15/2 with Skybet now. How likely is he to go do people think? Or should I take the hit on a lower price when someone goes NRNB?

You’d imagine If he was going to run here he’d be 7/2? 15/2 is a crazy price the bookies must know something we dont

FatRat

Owner is pretty bullish on him in latest article. Seems like he'll go. Perhaps chances of fast ground playing a part. I think I'll take the 15/2 now

Gavin "shels"

Will probably be on the Native River train - excellent Gold Cup win and nothing was going to beat the Haydock master Bristol De Mai in the Betfair Chase. On that note, was anything said about Might Bite after the Betfair Chase and him being pulled up? Never got going at all.

razorhead

https://www.racingpost.com/news/nicky-henderson-left-flummoxed-as-might-bite-trails-home-last/355132

akelly02

Native river will almost definitely not be suited to a sharp track like kempton , can see him first off the bridle with a mile to go

Fanny Wank

https://twitter.com/GrechParkin/status/1076416618148884480?s=19

RivetingRoger

Anyone else notice PP had thistlecrack NR yesterday and out of the betting but he is back in now.......

Angliru

Will put money on Thistlecrack for sentimental values and will probably bawl my eyes out if he wins. Price is poorish though. However Politologue at 5/1 is shocking I feel, does he even stay? Same with Waiting Patiently to a lesser extent. Watch them 1 and 2 it with Double Shuffle 3rd!

To be fair there are question marks over nearly every horse, which makes it a great race. Hopefully they all line up, seeing Coneygree, Native River and BDM setting a frantic pace at the front will be some sight with the lads behind.

Morleystreet

Double shuffle ran a cracker in this last year so at 40-1 he'll do for me ew.

mohican22

When Min is pulled from Footpads race on the Thurs @Leop he'll go 4/6 - 4/7 think Footpad is a max bet myself at 5/4 11/10

Gavin "shels"

Fury Road out in the last at Leop! Looking forward to see him - up against a Mullins French import mind you.

akelly02

Gavin "shels" wrote: »

Fury Road out in the last at Leop! Looking forward to see him - up against a Mullins French import mind you.

Have you heard much about fury road ?

Gavin "shels"

akelly02 wrote: »

Have you heard much about fury road ?

Supposedly is up there as good as Malone Road and Envoi Allen!

Gavin shels

Gavin shels wrote: »

Fury Road out in the last at Leop! Looking forward to see him - up against a Mullins French import mind you.

Its being bursted out of it in the betting. Opened 5-1 with 365 and into 7-4 now

Andrew00

TheTorment wrote: »

Its being bursted out of it in the betting. Opened 5-1 with 365 and into 7-4 now

It’s been tipped up and mentioned everywhere on twitter, Fury Road this, Fury Road that so that’s probably why it’s shortened

akelly02

Andrew00 wrote: »

It’s been tipped up and mentioned everywhere on twitter, Fury Road this, Fury Road that so that’s probably why it’s shortened

Too short now . I’ll do Faheys each way

Gavin "shels"

TheTorment wrote: »

Its being bursted out of it in the betting. Opened 5-1 with 365 and into 7-4 now

AFAIK, I think Bet365 priced up first then PP priced him up at 7/2 - Bet365 cut straight away so wouldn't read too much into 5/1.

Scott Tenorman

Might Bite for me in the KG.

Kempton is his track & I'll forgive the first run of the season. Can see it being 3/1 or 7/2 on the day.

Backing it single & in a double with Santini in the novice chase

Gringo180

The young improving Clan Des Obeaux has a big shout in this too. 16/1 is surely worth an each way play. Travelled beautifully in the BetFair when ran out of steam approaching the 2nd last but stayed on admirabley into 4th. Im going to take a chance on him needing the run.

BumperD

Bristol de Mai for me. He’s in good form and has less questions than the rest imo, only 2nd run of season so hopefully the joints etc hold up unlike prior years on his subsequent runs

jimjamcos

Howya lads.

Waiting Patiently for Stephens day. Seeing lots saying that first run and doubt over staying are negatives but he's perfect fresh and I think his running style - just lobbing along, economical jumping before being produced late - is absolutely perfect for the King George. Think his turn of foot between the final two will prove too much for rest.

Nap.

Also like Bags Groove in Feltham as much as it pains me to oppose Santini. Think that while Santini may prove the best in terms of a Gold Cup horse, I haven't seen a staying novice chaser jump slicker than Bags Groove in a long time. A front running, fast jumper, I can see him making ground at every fence and proving very hard to catch. While respected, I'm not sure TOTG's last run was as good as looked given how slow they went and La Bague A RoI will likely go from front too but prefer Bags Groove to win the dual.

Singles and Double

paddy no 11

I'll chance waiting patiently, with about a 5% confidence interval

droidman123

I think 3m is a bit short fot bristol de mai,i am going to back politiclogue,who i think has the pace for the k.g

Nulty

Coneygree should outrun his odds of 33/1. He's 11 rising 12 but he's had 16 career starts, only Waiting Patiently and Clan Des Obeaux have had fewer.

He's taken time to come back to anything like his form of three years ago. He's form at the track and has the right running style. He could easily hit the frame.

For win purposes, Politologue looks the one at 5/1. Really should stay and has much more pace than any of these to beat Min at Aintree.

Fanny Wank

Waiting Patiently is almost jolly on the ma-cheen

Gavin "shels"

BumperD wrote: »

Bristol de Mai for me. He’s in good form and has less questions than the rest imo, only 2nd run of season so hopefully the joints etc hold up unlike prior years on his subsequent runs

Don't believe he's a "Haydock" horse?

Gringo180

Native River must be the most under rated horse in training. Current Gold Cup Champion not really getting a mention.

Gringo180

Fanny **** wrote: »

Waiting Patiently is almost jolly on the ma-cheen

Non stayer imo. Same as Politologue.

Gavin "shels"

Gringo180 wrote: »

Native River must be the most under rated horse in training. Current Gold Cup Champion not really getting a mention.

100% - 6/1 is insane odds imo! Will be playing it safe and going each way at them odds!

piplip87

I'm giving Thistlecrack one last chance. Will split my bet with Bristol too. I fancy Bague Au Roi  for the Kauto Star.

In Lepordstown I've done coco beach in the juvenile won well in France and could be one to watch going forward.

Also have Bel Aml Sivola done.

Getabird, Didtheyleaveyououttoo, and Bouvir D'air in a treble too

Gringo180

Gavin "shels" wrote: »

100% - 6/1 is insane odds imo! Will be playing it safe and going each way at them odds!

11/8 to place. Buying money son

BumperD

Gavin "shels" wrote: »

Don't believe he's a "Haydock" horse?

Fragile that’s all. We all thought he was a heavy ground horse too before his last run so I’m willing to take a punt he’s just hard to keep right , this being his 2nd run, hopefully he’s still ok.

rossom

Thought I'd pop the head in to wish everyone a Happy Christmas! All is well with me and will try post more in the New Year!

Huge, huge fan of Waiting Patiently in the King George and think he'll take the step up to 3m in his stride. Think he'll drift out to about 6/1 at one point tomorrow given the less fashionable trainer and although its not a lump bet for me certainly will be a backer (against two horses I really like in Native River & Might Bite)

Handicaps have always been where I've made my dough and 3.20 Wetherby Lester Kris 12/1 looks really interesting to me on handicap debut. Running for the in form Micky Hammond yard, it's very interesting to see Joe Colliver dash from riding an odds on shot at Sedgefield at 1.30 to make the last here when surely he could have picked up a ride at Sedgefield with this trainer having other runners there (most shorter prices). Lester Kris very much caught the eye on his stable debut at Catterick last month under this pilot when he didn't look too knocked about in 3rd and with the from looking decent I think his opening mark underestimates him. Micky Hammond like a winner on Stephens Day and had 2 on the card at Wetherby last year and I think this one should hopefully land the spoils.

Caraline 6/1 bolted in in the same 1.35 Wetherby contest last year off a stone lower mark and I think she's been aimed at this race again. Despite being pulled up on her reappearance, she had a similar run on her return last year when tailed off and I think she should be spot on for this. She's only 4lb below the mark she signed off with victory last season and hopefully Micky can repeat his feat of achieving a double on the cards with these two this year.

mengele

Any trainers horses in really good form at the moment? Ones to stay away from?

jimjamcos

Lads, Waiting Patiently races in his sleep so would be absolutely amazed if he doesn't stay a soft 3m.

If he doesn't win it'll be because he's not good enough but I've rarely been as confident in how a race will pan out - Native River pushes pace, Mite Bite tracks, Waiting Patiently is produced at the last, with rest not good enough.

We're going to see a star tomorrow.

STB.

Welcome back Rossom.


King George. If there is a young pretender that is set to dominate over the next few years, it may be Waiting Patiently and his connections clearly have been very patient with the limited runs this horse has made in recent years. Still think he may have to wait til next year. Why is Native River such a massive price ? There are so many questions against the rest.

For me its Native River, Waiting Patiently, Politologue in the first three.

Thought it interesting that Ruby is going to Limerick with Townend at Leop.

Motivator

STB. wrote: »

Thought it interesting that Ruby is going to Limerick with Townend at Leop.

Ruby is going where the winners are. Willie’s horses won’t like the ground in Leopardstown. Ruby would go anywhere for a winner and he’ll get one in Limerick.

ready4liftoff

Latest conditions at Leopardstown suggest it is Good to Yielding on the hurdle track and Good on the chase course.

Will officials at the Foxrock venue start watering the track? I know watering on racecourses in the winter is virtually unheard off. But if they leave the ground as it is, there will definitely be some firm in the going description come tomorrow!

My best bet of the day is - Wait for me who runs in the 1:25 in Wincanton. Had recent wind surgery and will like the going for this once class horse, who is well handicapped if he returns to his best.

longshotvalue

Wincanton 2:35

Dicosimo ran well last time in a much better race than this, after being too free early one. Some of his past form is easily good enough here and i fancy him to never see another horse. 16/1 is certainly value

1 Point win 16/1 hill/vc 14/1 gen

longshotvalue

1:20 Kempton
@sevenbarrows doesn't have too many 122 rated horses and I wondered why. His first race over jumps was a shambles and i think with a normal passage here that rating could be made to look silly.
2 Points win 7/1 Generally

Motivator

aidankkk wrote: »

1:20 Kempton
@sevenbarrows doesn't have too many 122 rated horses and I wondered why. His first race over jumps was a shambles and i think with a normal passage here that rating could be made to look silly.
2 Points win 7/1 Generally

When copying and pasting try and remember to include the name of the horse 😂

BumperD

aidankkk wrote: »

1:20 Kempton
Turtle Wars@sevenbarrows doesn't have too many 122 rated horses and I wondered why. His first race over jumps was a shambles and i think with a normal passage here that rating could be made to look silly.
2 Points win 7/1 Generally

Fyp

gazza1

Emerald Rose 12/1 2.20 M Rasen EW

3rd in this race last year. 5lbs higher today but only the 3 runs since last year's race and ran a cracker fto this campaign which should put him bang on for today

GL today

Gavin "shels"

Already mentioned in the thread I'm on Fury Road 5/2 & Native Road ew at 6/1 (going to back to place too as Gringo suggested)

Rest of the bets for they day:
12.10 Leopardstown - Vision D'Honneur 2/1 win
12.40 Market Rason - Imperial Knight 7/1 each way
12.50 Kempton - Thomas Darby 11/4 win
1.00 Down Royal - Stand Up and Fight 11/8 win
3.30 Leopardstown - Exit Poll 13/8 to place
3.45 Limerick - Larquebuse 6/4 win

BumperD

The Big Bite for me here in Kempton

BumperD

Mr Fisher impressive

Faugheen

Coure Sublime was going to win that before falling at the last. Devastated. Hope horse and jockey are ok most importantly.

paddy no 11

Serious guts from the mare in Kempton

Angliru

The conspiracy theorists will have enjoyed that one from Ruby