Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Akrasia

A new survey shows that a third of UK businesses are considering relocating outside of the UK because of Brexit

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47083214

According to research by the institute of Directors, 16% of companies already have active relocation plans in place while a further 13% are considering doing so.

This doesn't appear to be solely contingent on the UK crashing out with no deal, even with a deal, a significant number of uk companies will still transfer at least a portion of their operations outside of the UK, but in the event of a No Deal exit, this proportion is likely to be much higher.

There doesnt appear to be any evidence of any significant flow of inward investment to balance out the capital flight as of yet.

Enzokk

eagle eye wrote: »

I don't have a source but I'm quite sure that many people just want peace and that won't happen if there is an attempt to have a United Ireland.
The no border is the best solution with NI remaining in the UK.

The best solution is to keep things as it was before the Brexit vote. That is what worked for most people and they could get on with their lives in peace. It is the best solution for the GFA and it is also the best solution for the UK economically, yet they insist they will not do this.

Folkstonian wrote: »

Well, a United ireland would actually allow Britain to dive straight into negotiations for a Canada style free trade deal with the EU whilst not worrying about how and where to put customs checkpoints and other physical infrastructure so as not to infuriate to the point of political violence from one group or the other!

The funny thing with that scenario is if NI voted for unification with Ireland the hassles with a border only gets switched to the Scottish border. You will not have the negotiations about customs posts and the GFA, but you will have a majority of Scottish people agitating to leave the UK. From one crisis to the next for the PM (whoever that would be).

Iderown wrote: »

Pure fantasy on my part.


After hard car crash Brexit, and Scotland votes independence, how about Northern Ireland joins Scotland in some sort of political union of convenience. Then both re-join EU.
May solve hard border in Ireland difficulty. Move hard border to mainland UK.

I don't know if that solves much as unionists like the DUP would still be fighting against it. Either way there will be someone fighting for something in NI, whether it be the majority just wanting peace and how things were or unionists looking to be part of the UK again.

Akrasia

Iderown wrote: »

Pure fantasy on my part.


After hard car crash Brexit, and Scotland votes independence, how about Northern Ireland joins Scotland in some sort of political union of convenience. Then both re-join EU.
May solve hard border in Ireland difficulty. Move hard border to mainland UK.

That makes no sense for anyone

Fr Tod Umptious

All of those looking at a UI post Brexit could well do with looking at the mess that UK politics has been for the last few years.

I can only imagine how difficult negotiations would be on a UI if a border poll showed a similar majority as Leave did in the Brexit referendum.

Negotiating a NI exit from the UK would make Brexit look like a holiday camp.

Enzokk

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

All of those looking at a UI post Brexit could well do with looking at the mess that UK politics has been for the last few years.

I can only imagine how difficult negotiations would be on a UI if a border poll showed a similar majority as Leave did in the Brexit referendum.

Negotiating a NI exit from the UK would make Brexit look like a holiday camp.

But it is a mess either way, right? Either you have the DUP up in arms because the UK has decided the easiest way to placate the ERG is for an Irish Sea border. Or you have Ireland and the EU up in arms because the UK has reneged on the GFA and there is a hard border. Or leavers are up in arms because Brexit has been cancelled or it is so soft you could well be in the EU.

All options leads to chaos, it really is just what type of chaos you are choosing right now.

FrancieBrady

Enzokk wrote: »

The best solution is to keep things as it was before the Brexit vote. That is what worked for most people and they could get on with their lives in peace. It is the best solution for the GFA and it is also the best solution for the UK economically, yet they insist they will not do this.




The funny thing with that scenario is if NI voted for unification with Ireland the hassles with a border only gets switched to the Scottish border. You will not have the negotiations about customs posts and the GFA, but you will have a majority of Scottish people agitating to leave the UK. From one crisis to the next for the PM (whoever that would be).





I don't know if that solves much as unionists like the DUP would still be fighting against it. Either way there will be someone fighting for something in NI, whether it be the majority just wanting peace and how things were or unionists looking to be part of the UK again.

Not sure the 'best solution' is going to cut if Brexit is averted.
The GFA is failing to deliver for people in northern Ireland even without Brexit and we were heading for probs anyway. Can't see Dublin and Westminster being able to sweep it under the carpet anymore. The GFA was meant to be a process and it had totally stalled.

Zubeneschamali

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The GFA was meant to be a process and it had totally stalled.

SF and the DUP would have worked something out and gotten back into Stormont long ago if Brexit hadn't come and upturned everything. The DUP have been busy getting their asses kissed in Westminster, and SF have been lying doggo letting the DUP make a balls of everything.

L1011

Iderown wrote: »

Pure fantasy on my part.


After hard car crash Brexit, and Scotland votes independence, how about Northern Ireland joins Scotland in some sort of political union of convenience. Then both re-join EU.
May solve hard border in Ireland difficulty. Move hard border to mainland UK.

Scotland would have no interest in importing further unionist extremists

FrancieBrady

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

SF and the DUP would have worked something out and gotten back into Stormont long ago if Brexit hadn't come and upturned everything. The DUP have been busy getting their asses kissed in Westminster, and SF have been lying doggo letting the DUP make a balls of everything.

Not to go off topic, but the GFA was in trouble and there was complaints before.

Peregrinus

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Not to go off topic, but the GFA was in trouble and there was complaints before.

Yeah, but it's one thing for the GFA to falter because the DUP don't like it and won't play ball. That's par for the grim course in NI politics. It's quite another for HMG to undercut or violate the GFA for reasons which have nothing to do with either the wishes or the welfare of N, and take no account of either. That's just criminally irresponsible.

FrancieBrady

Peregrinus wrote: »

Yeah, but it's one thing for the GFA to falter because the DUP don't like it and won't play ball. That's par for the grim course in NI politics. It's quite another for HMG to undercut or violate the GFA for reasons which have nothing to do with either the wishes or the welfare of N, and take no account of either. That's just criminally irresponsible.

Totally agree. I was disagreeing with the poster who thought the best solution was to allow northern Ireland to revert to 'as we were'.
My point is, after this, it might not.

Enzokk

Peregrinus wrote: »

Yeah, but it's one thing for the GFA to falter because the DUP don't like it and won't play ball. It's quite another for HMG to undercut or violate the GFA for reasons which have nothing to do with either the wishes or the welfare of N, and take no account of eitherI. That's just criminally irresponsible.

If there wasn't an agreement between the Tories and the DUP to keep them in government you would think that there would have been a move already where Westminster took over the running of Stormont temporarily to force the DUP back to the negotiation table. Brexit is really the spanner in the works for how Westminster is supposed to work.

Peregrinus

Enzokk wrote: »

If there wasn't an agreement between the Tories and the DUP to keep them in government you would think that there would have been a move already where Westminster took over the running of Stormont temporarily to force the DUP back to the negotiation table. Brexit is really the spanner in the works for how Westminster is supposed to work.

It's an impossible speculation. But for the influence given to them by the numbers in Westminster, the DUP might have gone back into Stormont by now, Brexit or no Brexit, without any need for HMG to force them. But we'll never know, because the world in which there was no Brexit and/or no 2017 UK election is wholly imaginary.

Enzokk

Peregrinus wrote: »

It's an impossible speculation. But for the influence given to them by the numbers in Westminster, the DUP might have gone back into Stormont by now, Brexit or no Brexit, without any need for HMG to force them. But we'll never know, because the world in which there was no Brexit and/or no 2017 UK election is wholly imaginary.

True, even if the DUP wasn't needed to prop up the government they could have gambled on the Tories sharing their interests more than they would SF. They could have still decided to not sit in Stormont seeing the politicians the Tories send as Northern Ireland Secretary.

Brexit as a whole though has meant that there is a paralysis in Westminster. They have some serious problems they have to deal with that is on the back burner and just getting worse by the day. The NHS is always front and center but the cuts to social welfare, to councils and to the justice system is still to hit their hardest when these areas are starting to creak now.

spacecoyote

In other Brexit news, UK banks are potentially facing funding issues:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-banks-funding-analysis/britains-banks-face-funding-crunch-as-brexit-looms-idUSKCN1PO1BV

Basically, after the last financial crash, the BoE were offering cheap funding to banks to keep banks open & markets functioning (like every other central bank). But they stopped doing this in February of last year & banks are having to come up with other ways to fund their business (such as issuing their own bonds). But they're having to offer higher rates of return on these in order to raise that cash, which means their margins take a massive hit.

I know that the BoE have done a massive amount of work to try & ensure that the financial sector could cope, should there be a hard brexit & subsequent economic impact, but all metrics seem to point towards them still being hit hard should it happen.

For example, Barclays’ September 2023 euro bond was trading on Tuesday at a yield of 1.85 percent, some 56 basis points more than Deutsche Bank’s August 2023 issue despite the latter’s well-publicised woes.

If top names like Barclays and HSBC are finding it costly to borrow, smaller banks will have to pay even more, bankers who work on such deals said.

Deutsche would not exactly be top of most peoples books as being a strong investment these days, but they can still finance themselves cheaper than Barclays can, which says a lot to be honest

jmayo

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

This is Charles Moore writing in The Spectator. You would think this is parody, but I can assure you it's not. This person often writes similar opinion pieces for The Telegrpah.

"What to do about the coming shortage of green groceries of which several supermarkets warned yet again this week if there is a no-deal Brexit on 29 March? I am just old enough to remember when fresh fruit and veg were in short supply at this time of year. People used to know how to store things to mitigate the problem: apples would be carefully laid out on straw-strewn shelves. We ate lots of root vegetables and not much greenery. If ever you saw a strawberry out of season it came, for some reason, from Israel. Perhaps it is time for a Brexit recipe book, like those comforting wartime rationing ones full of bright ideas for dull things. In our part of the south coast we have racier ideas. We have a centuries-old tradition of smuggling (‘brandy for the parson, baccy for the clerk’), and are ready to set out in our little ships to Dunkirk or wherever and bring back luscious black-market lettuces and French beans, oranges and lemons. Our Sussex and Kent smugglers used to be known as ‘free traders’, which is interesting and — if we have to sneak over an EU tariff wall — entirely appropriate for today."

Sadly John Fortune passed away a few years ago so we don't have this type of political satire anymore.

Hopefully the mods will allow this even though it is not Politics Cafe, because I think this sketch might actually sum up the Rees Moggs and other Brexiters more aptly than paragraphs of print.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f6a_weyzkY4

Dyr

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

All of those looking at a UI post Brexit could well do with looking at the mess that UK politics has been for the last few years.

I can only imagine how difficult negotiations would be on a UI if a border poll showed a similar majority as Leave did in the Brexit referendum.

Negotiating a NI exit from the UK would make Brexit look like a holiday camp.

Won't be much of a negotiate with the UK as the scenario is laid out in the GFA "F**k off and leave a tip" should cover it.

Water John

Mentioned that idea of a Federation of the Celtic Nations, maybe similar to Benelux before, all within the EU. NI Unionists are Scots Irish mainly. That is their history. Three Countries/States with close cooperation. They can keep the Queen as Head of State if they wish.

Havockk

Water John wrote: »

Mentioned that idea of a Federation of the Celtic Nations, maybe similar to Benelux before, all within the EU. NI Unionists are Scots Irish mainly. That is their history. Three Countries/States with close cooperation. They can keep the Queen as Head of State if they wish.

It's clear at this point the only solution for the North is an island one.

lawred2

Water John wrote: »

Mentioned that idea of a Federation of the Celtic Nations, maybe similar to Benelux before, all within the EU. NI Unionists are Scots Irish mainly. That is their history. Three Countries/States with close cooperation. They can keep the Queen as Head of State if they wish.

There are no sea borders between any of the Benelux nations

A NI Scotland union is a nonsense in my eyes

I could see some sort of a political bloc type union between a united Ireland and independent Scotland within the EU but not a federation of 'Celtic' nations. But that bloc could be 25 years away

jmayo

Havockk wrote: »

It's clear at this point the only solution for the North is an island one.

People need to realise the DUP and a fair chunk of their voters detest the South and they will gladly welcome a border to distance themselves from the South, even if that means hardship for them.

To some people in the North relations have become too cosy with the South.
And that is viewed as dangerous and a slipper slope to ultimately a united Ireland.

The funny thing is a hard border and hard Brexit will push moderates towards a united Ireland.

Havockk

jmayo wrote: »

People need to realise the DUP and a fair chunk of their voters detest the South and they will gladly welcome a border to distance themselves from the South, even if that means hardship for them.

To some people in the North relations have become too cosy with the South.
And that is viewed as dangerous and a slipper slope to ultimately a united Ireland.

The funny thing is a hard border and hard Brexit will push moderates towards a united Ireland.

Indeed, but that is self defeating. I mean we all know this right? It's teh unspoken thing that is on all our minds but no one really says... that the DUP are doing SF's heavy lifting for them.

Imreoir2

Iderown wrote: »

Pure fantasy on my part.


After hard car crash Brexit, and Scotland votes independence, how about Northern Ireland joins Scotland in some sort of political union of convenience. Then both re-join EU.
May solve hard border in Ireland difficulty. Move hard border to mainland UK.

This is not provided for in the GFA. The only choice the people in NI have is to remain in the UK (with or without Scotland) or join Ireland.

An independant NI, NI becoming part of another country, launching themselves into space etc are not options.

jm08

Water John wrote: »

Mentioned that idea of a Federation of the Celtic Nations, maybe similar to Benelux before, all within the EU. NI Unionists are Scots Irish mainly. That is their history. Three Countries/States with close cooperation. They can keep the Queen as Head of State if they wish.

I like the Scots, but with a large body of water between us. Twice in recent years they have sold Irish rugby down the river for financial gain. First time was over the Heineken Cup when they were bought off by BT Sport with large sponsorship (BT Sport had the TV rights). 2nd time was over the staging of the rugby world cup - they would get more money if France hosted it. The Welsh are not much better when it comes to money.

First Up

jmayo wrote:

The funny thing is a hard border and hard Brexit will push moderates towards a united Ireland.

I really wish people would forget this nonsense. Brexit is going to push Northern Ireland closer to Britain as they seek comfort in each other's arms. Talk of a united Ireland is only going to push them even closer.

I hope a borderless solution can be found but our future is in Europe and there's isn't and that's how it will be for a long long time.

AtomicHorror

Iderown wrote: »

Pure fantasy on my part.


After hard car crash Brexit, and Scotland votes independence, how about Northern Ireland joins Scotland in some sort of political union of convenience. Then both re-join EU.
May solve hard border in Ireland difficulty. Move hard border to mainland UK.

Yes, Celtic Federation- it's been tossed around a bit before, usually with Ireland added.

I love the idea, but it's like something from an alternate history sci-fi. Zeppelins everywhere, Nazis rule London, Superman landed in the USSR, doppelgangers with goatees.

Also the name would be problematic for a vocal faction within Scotland.

Imreoir2

First Up wrote: »

I really wish people would forget this nonsense. Brexit is going to push Northern Ireland closer to Britain as they seek comfort in each other's arms. Talk of a united Ireland is only going to push them even closer.

I hope a borderless solution can be found but our future is in Europe and there's isn't and that's how it will be for a long long time.

That's not what the polls have been saying. Recent polls have shown a clear majority in favour of a UI in the case of a hard Brexit. Time will tell if that sentiment remains after the fact, but right now I don't see much evidence for a hard Brexit reinforcing rather than undermining NI's place in the UK.

Donald Trump

First Up wrote: »

I really wish people would forget this nonsense. Brexit is going to push Northern Ireland closer to Britain as they seek comfort in each other's arms. Talk of a united Ireland is only going to push them even closer.

I hope a borderless solution can be found but our future is in Europe and there's isn't and that's how it will be for a long long time.

You'll need to assume that UK is still going to pony up the big bucks to keep NI afloat.


If it gets to the stage where they're looking across the border at all the lights in the Republic while they are in darkness, like the North Koreans looking across the river at the Chinese, then it might not last so long :pac:

eagle eye

Enzokk wrote:

All options leads to chaos, it really is just what type of chaos you are choosing right now.

The only option that doesn't result in blood being spilt is to.continue with what we have had for the last number of years.
The UK voted to leave and regardless of what deal is struck there should be no border.
If the Brits want to create a border then let them but the EU should not create, or place any personnel on, a border between NI and us.
That way the only targets are those in power in the UK. Let them live with that hanging over them and maybe they'll quickly come to their senses.

s3rtvdbwfj81ch

AtomicHorror wrote: »

Yes, Celtic Federation- it's been tossed around a bit before, usually with Ireland added.

I love the idea, but it's like something from an alternate history sci-fi. Zeppelins everywhere, Nazis rule London, Superman landed in the USSR, doppelgangers with goatees.

Also the name would be problematic for a vocal faction within Scotland.

Not to mention the Hard Border requirement on the larger island, it's just shifting the same issue really.