Melbourne Cup

kiers47

Anyone have any views on the big race. Some massive British/Irish interest this year.
Seems every year our hand is getting stronger and it looks like the Aussies are up against it to gain the crown back.

Im not really sure is there a bet.
Yucatan is an absolute yak of a yoke im not sure what he beat last time but he looked impressive so maybe the different style/climate has turned him around. Im not sure id have him favourite. He certainly seems a bit short to me.
I thought the Ebor winner would be fav if im honest he more or less won it on the bridle. Which is absolutely ridiculous when you think how competitive that was.
My worry for him is i dont think Jim Crowley is the most tactically astute jockey and this race can often be turned into a bit of a cat and mouse type affair. But he is more than capable so i think i may have a token bet on him for a bit of fun. Cross Counter is also interesting but im not sure id be backing a 3yo in this but he does get a nice weight concession.

PP also going 6 places for anyone having a bet and wants a bit of interest. I think ill shop around and go win only Muntahaa for just a 0.5point sized bet.

irishgoat

I won't have a bet in the race but I do agree with you with Muntahaa. If I was having a bet it would be that horse but to me it's like a lottery.

kiers47

It is certainly a lottery and i know nothing about the Australian form tbh. It wont bother me to much win or lose tbh.

posturingpat

Nakeeta ran well in it last year so will be no shock to the system to him like it could be for some others, is owned by an Australian crowd now so likely been targeting the race and is available at big prices. Ew bet for me.

madmoose

Nakeeta is around 66/1 ew 6 places and one firm is 100/1. Seems too big so ill do him ew myself.

tryfix

It's a baffling race, we could convince ourselves that half the field could win it and we'd still be only throwing darts because it's out of our comfort zone.

Yucatan winning a race of this magnitude seems ridiculous on his flakey European form, but Johannes Vermeer came pretty close to winning it last year for the same team and he was a bit flakey as well.


Out of them all the ones that I'd most like to see winning are the Godolphin pair Best Solution and Cross Counter while of O'Brien's Rostropovich and The Cliffs Of Moher are an interesting pair of oddballs that have hit the woodwork plenty of times.

Nulty

Backed Nakeeta last year, same again. Got the 100 a few days ago. Never picked the winner of this.

AnneFrank

Went for cliffs of moher

gillamandango

Magic Circle says hello? Small bit of excess weight maybe but a massive chance and by reading around, connections are supremely confident.

posturingpat

gillamandango wrote: »

Magic Circle says hello? Small bit of excess weight maybe but a massive chance and by reading around, connections are supremely confident.

Did Koukash not say he'd run around in a g string if it wins? Hardly sounds a ringing endorsement. Berry fair sick he didn't get to go over I'd say.

gillamandango

Something along those lines yes but can’t knock the last two wins. How you would go about getting the PMU equivalent for this race, would taking SP not be Uk SP?

kiers47

Boyles usually allow you to bet the tote price in most jurisdictions. Just change the price to DIV

mailburner

backed cross counter ew at 8/1 (5places)

smaller bet on muntahaa win at 12/1 bf
took singles on cross counter to be placed at 4.2 (3places bf) and
muntahaa to be placed at 3.6 (4places bf)

good luck all

Francie Barrett

Best Solution at 11/1 surely the pick of all these. Ticks all the boxes in terms of trip, going, and form.

Francie Barrett

tryfix wrote: »

O'Brien's Rostropovich and The Cliffs Of Moher are an interesting pair of oddballs that have hit the woodwork plenty of times.

3 year olds have a pretty woeful record in this race unfortunately.

The Tetrarch

Small bets A Prince Of Arran at 25s and Ace High 120s.

irishgoat

The last winner I backed in the race was media puzzle back in 02 or 03. I will say one thing about the Oz racing, if a horse is gambled on, 9/10 it will win. I know a guy who moved from Ireland to Oz and working in Sportingbet. Powers own it. He moved from here to Oz a good few years ago. He worked for powers here they offered him a job over there. The ozzies love their horse racing.

kiers47

irishgoat wrote: »

The last winner I backed in the race was media puzzle back in 02 or 03. I will say one thing about the Oz racing, if a horse is gambled on, 9/10 it will win. I know a guy who moved from Ireland to Oz and working in Sportingbet. Powers own it. He moved from here to Oz a good few years ago. He worked for powers here they offered him a job over there. The ozzies love their horse racing.

Is sportingbet not owned by William hill?

kiers47

This is gonna be run in an absolute bog by the sounds of what I'm reading on Twitter.

irishgoat

kiers47 wrote: »

Is sportingbet not owned by William hill?

I highly doubt it unless it was purchased in the last year or 2. I know the guy years, he worked in the airton road building in Tallaght. They offered him the position over there. I'm in constant contact with him and he never mentioned a buy out.

kiers47

Sporting bet as in sportingbet.com is definitely owned by William hill

irishgoat

Kiers47 I'm sorry I said it wrongly, this is the site https://www.sportsbet.com.au

kiers47

Ah ok. Was wondering if I missed something.

irishgoat

No it was my error I apologize. In the past you could browse the site but now they are after putting it geographically so you'd have to use a vpn I think, but nothing of interest really. They do have the form of the horses in detail in big races but no use to be honest.

irishgoat

Just trying to have a look at some of the form for the oz racing. The 1.10 @ Flemington, if I base this wholly on the UK racing I'd say the fav Fifty stars is very vulnerable. The 22 in it's form looks deceiving to me. It's about 2.80'ish. I'm going to tip my toe in the water and lay this and see how how it goes. I do bet on the oz racing but I don't study it much.

Mostly Harmless

irishgoat wrote: »

The last winner I backed in the race was media puzzle back in 02 or 03. I will say one thing about the Oz racing, if a horse is gambled on, 9/10 it will win. I know a guy who moved from Ireland to Oz and working in Sportingbet. Powers own it. He moved from here to Oz a good few years ago. He worked for powers here they offered him a job over there. The ozzies love their horse racing.

Aussies love gambling (and in general are pretty terrible punters), betting to a 140% book and only paying 3 places in a 24 runner handicap is pretty rum.

Francie Barrett

Cliffsofmoher a fatality

kiers47

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Cliffsofmoher a fatality

Yes watched it this morning. For all the horse got a fair bit of criticism he was still a high class horse. So fairly gutting to go out on such a big stage.

A race dominated by the Europeans again. I watched the race a few times now and while Cross Counter had to go so wide in the straight. Things went a little to perfect for Marmelo. He got there about a furlong to soon and i thought he was a little unlucky, That being said the winner is a very good horse and would have been unfortunate for him if he didnt get there. Definitely the best 2 horses in the race to me.
Not sure about 2m4f in Ascot but the winner would be a cracking cup horse for next year. Probably they could even start him in something like the coronation cup in epsom. Which would be right up his street i think.

HandsomeBob

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Cliffsofmoher a fatality

Guardian fairly scathing of the lack of coverage given to the fatality during their live updates this morning.

Horse didn't look right before the race allegedly.

BumperD

HandsomeBob wrote: »

Guardian fairly scathing of the lack of coverage given to the fatality during their live updates this morning.

Horse didn't look right before the race allegedly.

Guardian is a rag of a paper

FatRat

BumperD wrote: »

Guardian is a rag of a paper

Rag or not, I think it's fair. On the coverage I watched earlier the commentators made a big deal about how the horse looked and was sweating up - to the point where they even discussed his well-being before the race.