Air BnB [and other platforms] to be effectively outlawed in high demand areas

Ozark707

Dav010 wrote: »

If you go back a few pages you will see a post about homeless people being moved into a short let unit next door, the poster asked who is paying for it, it’s the HSE. The Government is actually paying STL owners to house the homeless short term while the hotels they were using are closed. The irony can’t be lost on you Ozark.

Sounds more like these hosts saw the writing on the wall and decided to take what they could get.

Edit: before you ask I have no stats to back this up

Dav010

Ozark707 wrote: »

Sounds more like these hosts saw the writing on the wall and decided to take what they could get.

Edit: before you ask I have no stats to back this up

That’s ok, yip, makes sense, take a few Roma families into the apartments (see post Jackaroe page 123) for a few months until restrictions lifted and STLs are possible again, all paid for by the Government. You’ve got to admit, there is something sweetly ironic about the fact that there is a symbiotic relationship between STL owners who the Government know are breaking the law, and the Government who are willing to use them when it suits, and help to offset the loses suffered by not having guests.

Umaro, that’s another one for the list.🀪

hometruths

Umaro wrote: »

Dav010 has a playbook with a few tricks in it that he just uses over and over to refute points.

You put something forward as a solution to stop STLs cannibalizing the rental market - he'll look for granular detail, poke a hole in it and then deduce the whole plan is useless. This is easy stuff, since you're not a policymaker you won't have thought of every. single. scenario.

In fact any legislation talk is easily brushed away with a simple "Hasn't worked so far, so won't work now".

DOWNPLAY the STL market. It's just 1% of the market, right? No big deal.

Throw a few stats at him - he'll just hand-wave them away. Lads, there could be any number of reasons why prices dropped when a load of rental property came online in March, don't be casting aspersions on AirBnB.

And then the flipside to when you don't have the stats, he'll start looking for you to produce the stats to prove your point.

Those are all pretty effective, but I'd say my personal favourite is when you've managed to corner him and he backflips over you with "If you shutdown AirBnB it'll just get replaced with dodgy alternatives operating out of Malawi and you'll never stop themmmm"


Taking his posts at face value, it seems like regulating STLs in Dublin is as hopeless as the war on drugs

Good summary, but you missed out accusations of begrudgery and discrimination.

“did an Airbnb host pee in your cornflakes” and the suggestion that Graham is fundamentally bigoted towards tourists, which I presume is a form of racism.

“Bloody foreigners, coming over here and taking all our neatly folded towels”

Dav010

schmittel wrote: »

Good summary, but you missed out accusations of begrudgery and discrimination.

“did an Airbnb host pee in your cornflakes” and the suggestion that Graham is fundamentally bigoted towards tourists, which I presume is a form of racism.

“Bloody foreigners, coming over here and taking all our neatly folded towels”

Did I not say discriminating against people not living in the community when he said tourists upset the balance when they stayed? I don’t think I accused anyone of being racist.

hometruths

Dav010 wrote: »

Did I not say discriminating against people not living in the community when he said tourists upset the balance when they stayed? I don’t think I accused anyone of being racist.

Yes, agreed, the form of racism thing was just to tee up the towels joke. You drew the line at discrimination.

Dav010

schmittel wrote: »

Yes, agreed, the form of racism thing was just to tee up the towels joke. You drew the line at discrimination.

Sorry, it’s late, too many glasses of wine. 🀑

Yellow_Fern

Last year 88,000 people moved here or about 58,000 excluding returning citizens. That is 7,300 (4,800) every month. Reports indicate this immigration has not happened in the few months. The increase in properties that people continually refer to in Dublin city is a minuscule 1,100 properties. Ideologues are ignoring the impact of stalled immigration in order to justify a power grab to restrict people using their property as they please, no matter how importantly those services are to the Irish and tourist community.

Claw Hammer

Yellow_Fern wrote: »

Last year 88,000 people moved here or about 58,000 excluding returning citizens. That is 7,300 (4,800) every month. Reports indicate this immigration has not happened in the few months. The increase in properties that people continually refer to in Dublin city is a minuscule 1,100 properties. Ideologues are ignoring the impact of stalled immigration in order to justify a power grab to restrict people using their property as they please, no matter how importantly those services are to the Irish and tourist community.

People have been restricted using their property as they please for centuries. What is new about restricting short term letting?

Claw Hammer

Umaro wrote: »

Dav010 has a playbook with a few tricks in it that he just uses over and over to refute points.

You put something forward as a solution to stop STLs cannibalizing the rental market - he'll look for granular detail, poke a hole in it and then deduce the whole plan is useless. This is easy stuff, since you're not a policymaker you won't have thought of every. single. scenario.

In fact any legislation talk is easily brushed away with a simple "Hasn't worked so far, so won't work now".

DOWNPLAY the STL market. It's just 1% of the market, right? No big deal.

Throw a few stats at him - he'll just hand-wave them away. Lads, there could be any number of reasons why prices dropped when a load of rental property came online in March, don't be casting aspersions on AirBnB.

And then the flipside to when you don't have the stats, he'll start looking for you to produce the stats to prove your point.

Those are all pretty effective, but I'd say my personal favourite is when you've managed to corner him and he backflips over you with "If you shutdown AirBnB it'll just get replaced with dodgy alternatives operating out of Malawi and you'll never stop themmmm"


Taking his posts at face value, it seems like regulating STLs in Dublin is as hopeless as the war on drugs

His first tactic is to make excuses and then say it can't be restricted and then say no on has made any serious attempt to restrict up to now and so there will be no serious attempt in the future.
Time will tell.

Dav010

Claw Hammer wrote: »

His first tactic is to make excuses and then say it can't be restricted and then say no on has made any serious attempt to restrict up to now and so there will be no serious attempt in the future.
Time will tell.

Ok, I’ll take the bait.

In your opinion, has a serious attempt been made up to now? If you think there has, why has there only been 20 applications for planning permission in Dublin, 21 enforcement notices, and one, yes one prosecution? As of yesterday there were 4663 whole units listed on Airbnb in Dublin. So smart guy, considering this legislation was passed almost a year ago, is that your definition of a serious attempt?

I agree with you about the wait and see, but wasn’t it you who pointed out that sites can register outside the jurisdiction? Mali or Timbuktu if I remember rightly.

Claw Hammer

Dav010 wrote: »

Ok, I’ll take the bait.

In your opinion, has a serious attempt been made up to now? If you think there has, why has there only been 20 applications for planning permission in Dublin, 21 enforcement notices, and one, yes one prosecution? As of yesterday there were 4663 whole units listed on Airbnb in Dublin. So smart guy, considering this legislation was passed almost a year ago, is that your definition of a serious attempt?

I agree with you about the wait and see, but wasn’t it you who pointed out that sites can register outside the jurisdiction? Mali or Timbuktu if I remember rightly.

I have pointed out why no serious attempt was made to do anything up to now. It suited the LA and the government.
because of Covid, it no longer suits them because of the fact that hotels will need to be supported. Add that to the political capital which will be made by Sinn Fein if nothing is done about it.
It took decades for something serious to be done about drink driving unaccompanied learner drivers, speeding.
In the end the screw was tightened.
So it will be with Airbnb.
Timbuktu is in Mali by the way. I made that in response to the poster who suggested there was an easy way to stop STLs. It doesn't mean that some more effectie method won't be deployed. In fact I am certain more effective methods will be deployed. the hotel lobby is powerful. They couldn't complain when they were runnig at full capacity. With all the new hotels coming to completion and no tourists, they will be screaming blue murder to stop STLs.

Ozark707

Dav010 wrote: »

why has there only been 20 applications for planning permission in Dublin, 21 enforcement notices, and one, yes one prosecution?

Article here from February which has some interesting numbers

https://www.rte.ie/news/dublin/2020/0219/1116267-airbnb-dublin-lettings/

As you said very low compliance with the rules.

Only 249 property owners in Dublin city have come forward to register with the council even though there are 7,218 Airbnb properties in the area according to the monitoring website Inside Airbnb.

Interestingly it appears they are happy to just have the STL's returned to the market and if so they don't appear to be taking any further action. Would be interesting in the intervening period to see what happened so the 308 properties that were not 'resolved' in February.

So far it has opened 395 investigations with 87 cases "resolved" which is understood to mean that the property has been removed from short-term letting websites.

It will take them quite a while to work through this based on these numbers, though if there are fewer STL's now then it should help them.

The city council has now set a target of 1,000 cases a year to be investigated by the Short Term Lettings Unit which has 11 staff including four enforcement officers.

Dav010

Ozark707 wrote: »

Article here from February which has some interesting numbers

https://www.rte.ie/news/dublin/2020/0219/1116267-airbnb-dublin-lettings/

As you said very low compliance with the rules.



Interestingly it appears they are happy to just have the STL's returned to the market and if so they don't appear to be taking any further action. Would be interesting in the intervening period to see what happened so the 308 properties that were not 'resolved' in February.



It will take them quite a while to work through this based on these numbers, though if there are fewer STL's now then it should help them.

Ozark, Daft report on rentals was published today.

It has a couple of stand out figures. Ads nationally are down significantly, but up 40% in Dublin in 12 months. There has been a drop in rental prices, primarily due to economic downturn and lack of movement by tenants over the past three months.

But, it also says there has been a notable movement of short let properties to long term rentals.

So, hand up, this is the analysis that proves your point. I accept now, you are right, I am wrong.


https://www.newstalk.com/news/drop-rents-due-covid-19-just-start-effect-1013642

hometruths

Dav010 wrote: »

Ozark, Daft report on rentals was published today.

It has a couple of stand out figures. Ads nationally are down significantly, but up 40% in Dublin in 12 months. There has been a drop in rental prices, primarily due to economic downturn and lack of movement by tenants over the past three months.

But, it also says there has been a notable movement of short let properties to long term rentals.

So, hand up, this is the analysis that proves your point. I accept now, you are right, I am wrong.


https://www.newstalk.com/news/drop-rents-due-covid-19-just-start-effect-1013642

Fair play to you. Was not expecting that! Makes a refreshing change.

Dav010

Full report here:

https://www.daft.ie/report/2020-Q1-rental-daftreport.pdf


Re: Short term lets:

"There was a spike in rental listings in central Dublin, and to a lesser extent in Galway, in the second half of March, seemingly from short-term lets moving over to the long-term rental market. But this was relatively concentrated geographically and limited in scale. Central Dublin saw perhaps an additional 500 rental listings in the month after schools closed – roughly 3 days demand in a normal market. Since then, rental listings looked like they might dry up but rose again in the second half of April.'

TSQ

Dav010 wrote: »

Full report here:

https://www.daft.ie/report/2020-Q1-rental-daftreport.pdf


Re: Short term lets:

"There was a spike in rental listings in central Dublin, and to a lesser extent in Galway, in the second half of March, seemingly from short-term lets moving over to the long-term rental market. But this was relatively concentrated geographically and limited in scale. Central Dublin saw perhaps an additional 500 rental listings in the month after schools closed – roughly 3 days demand in a normal market. Since then, rental listings looked like they might dry up but rose again in the second half of April.'

I would take note of the qualification in this statement..”seemingly” implies this isn’t even his own considered opinion but a pure guess, and has is not based on any analysis of properties that have come on the market. Equally, he could have Said “a spike ... seemingly from the newly unemployed and home workers giving up expensive city centre accommodation and moving back to Tipperary or Krakow. “ .

Yellow_Fern

TSQ wrote: »

I would take note of the qualification in this statement..”seemingly” implies this isn’t even his own considered opinion but a pure guess, and has is not based on any analysis of properties that have come on the market. Equally, he could have Said “a spike ... seemingly from the newly unemployed and home workers giving up expensive city centre accommodation and moving back to Tipperary or Krakow. “ .

Yes, it is based on nothing. Just conjecture.

LuckyLloyd

Yellow_Fern wrote: »

Last year 88,000 people moved here or about 58,000 excluding returning citizens. That is 7,300 (4,800) every month. Reports indicate this immigration has not happened in the few months. The increase in properties that people continually refer to in Dublin city is a minuscule 1,100 properties. Ideologues are ignoring the impact of stalled immigration in order to justify a power grab to restrict people using their property as they please, no matter how importantly those services are to the Irish and tourist community.

Planning permission is such an ideologically driven limiter of personal freedom and property rights!! :pac: And oh yeah - we must prioritise the needs of tourists over our own citizens!!

Claw Hammer

Yellow_Fern wrote: »

Yes, it is based on nothing. Just conjecture.

There have been ex Airbnbs advertised on DAFT. It is not just conjecture.
There is at least going to be some effort to clamp down on Airbnb, although the minister doesn't say why the whole issue wasn't studied before.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/murphy-wants-regulations-to-stop-short-term-lets-returning-to-air-bnb-style-platforms-999736.html

Yellow_Fern

Claw Hammer wrote: »

There have been ex Airbnbs advertised on DAFT. It is not just conjecture.
There is at least going to be some effort to clamp down on Airbnb, although the minister doesn't say why the whole issue wasn't studied before.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/murphy-wants-regulations-to-stop-short-term-lets-returning-to-air-bnb-style-platforms-999736.html

Yes but that might always happen at some rate but there is zero evidence that that extra 1100 properties are mostly airbnbs and there are plenty of reasons why they might not be. The minister will do what he thinks will gain him votes but the wellbeing of renters will mostly be determined by factors outside his control.

Graham

Yellow_Fern wrote: »

there is zero evidence that that extra 1100 properties are mostly airbnbs

You must admit it's not an unreasonable assumption particularly given the complete absence of a tourist market for the foreseeable future.

Donald Trump

Graham wrote: »

You must admit it's not an unreasonable assumption particularly given the complete absence of a tourist market for the foreseeable future.

2018 Article here says that

Home-sharing services such as Airbnb have become very popular in recent years. According to a recent report published by the company, there were over 8,500 overall listings in 2017 in Dublin county and city, earning its hosts €68 million.

Add in the fact that it is not the only platform on which you can rent your place out short term. Given that those utilising STL are invariably doing it to make money, they are the types of people who would try to maximize return. It would not be inconceivable then that say 10-15% of them might realise that the tourist market will be on its arse for the rest of the year and decide that a regular tenant and regular rent is better than no income!

So 1100 is definitely plausible IMO

Graham

That makes far too much sense.

I'm beginning to suspect you're not the real Donald Trump at all.

The_Conductor

Yellow_Fern wrote: »

Yes but that might always happen at some rate but there is zero evidence that that extra 1100 properties are mostly airbnbs and there are plenty of reasons why they might not be. The minister will do what he thinks will gain him votes but the wellbeing of renters will mostly be determined by factors outside his control.

Since the 14th of March over 3,200 US citizens left the country (presumably to return home, as they'd rather be close to their near and dear relatives). Repatriation of other nationals from Ireland since the 14th of March (via Dublin airport) came to a further 7,600.

Given how many people left- its shocking that there are only an additional 1,100 properties available to let- I'd have clocked it at a multiple of 1,100 vacancies being available.

Sure- some of them will come back again- and indeed, many Irish were repatriated from all manner of places in similar circumstances- but the suggestion that there are only 1,100 additional residential vacancies in Dublin (and Galway)- just doesn't add up for me.

Yellow_Fern

It is possible but even if all of the new apartments are airbnbs what about the other 4k in Dublin that are on airbnb? How many are empty apartments normally used by students who have gone home, or young workers who have returned to the family homes for safety or because they lost their job?

Yellow_Fern

The_Conductor wrote: »

Since the 14th of March over 3,200 US citizens left the country (presumably to return home, as they'd rather be close to their near and dear relatives). Repatriation of other nationals from Ireland since the 14th of March (via Dublin airport) came to a further 7,600.

Given how many people left- its shocking that there are only an additional 1,100 properties available to let- I'd have clocked it at a multiple of 1,100 vacancies being available.

Sure- some of them will come back again- and indeed, many Irish were repatriated from all manner of places in similar circumstances- but the suggestion that there are only 1,100 additional residential vacancies in Dublin (and Galway)- just doesn't add up for me.

Over the last ten years the rental market has tightened and like all shrinking markets there is an increase in more hidden or backstreet ads like on facebook. There maybe an increase on adds on facebook that goes on reported.

hometruths

Yellow_Fern wrote: »

It is possible but even if all of the new apartments are airbnbs what about the other 4k in Dublin that are on airbnb? How many are empty apartments normally used by students who have gone home, or young workers who have returned to the family homes for safety or because they lost their job?

Zero would be my guess.