Ascot Champions Day 20th October

kiers47

I will go ahead and open a thread here for Champions day on Saturday with the final decs out today.

I think Crystal Ocean is an absolute each way steal at 3/1. People may laugh at that but i am perfectly serious.
I have been against him in the past on occasions but he has been by far the best of these this year. Im not to worried about the ground at 10f for him i think he will go on most ground.
At odds of 1.6 for a place i think you absolutely have to go each way if the 8 decs go to post. I suppose there is a concern on 1 non runner taking you down to 2 places but i suppose that is a chance you have to take.
If they all show up he is about a 1.3 shot to be in the first 3. I think the win price is probably a tad big as well.

Im not sure if that will hold up before i get on but said i would flag it up here for anyone interested in him as there is no way it lasts the day imo.

** Queue Crystal Ocean drifting like a barge

kiers47

Hmmm seems that between me opening this thread PP have taken down their prices(unfortunately not me) Currently 11/4 with Betfred for anyone that can get on with them. Will see what PP come back with before i pull the trigger. Boyles are 5/2 which is probably fair. But i was hoping for at least the 3/1 to get rightly stuck in.

irishgoat

Kiers I'm delighted you opened this thread. I'm not going to be here on Saturday and wanted to throw my tuppence worth in.

It's a cracking day's racing.

I'm having a max lay bet on Stradivarius in the long distance, I've already layed bits from 1.96/2.1, I think flag of honour will get the job done.

A rule of thumb in handicapping or going on ratings is last years ratings are just that and you start over on this years. If I went by last year I could say Stradivarius 'could' be a 119/120'ish rated given it's 3rd to order of st george, but this year what did it beat ? I think this year it's OR of 118 is too generous, I think it's lower, and on the other hand you have flag of honour, started off the year on 102, got beat of couple of times, when I think they could have went for wins on both occasions, the horse lost, the mark stayed the same. Then when it was beaten, the mark was upped to 106 from 102, the horse then won @ 106, 109 and 113. I think the o briens done a great job at placing this horse and I think it's mark should be 120 or higher.

I think Flag of honour will win but I'll be really happy if Stradivarius gets beat. Oh yeah and the ground too, Stradivarius is good/good to firm to be at it's best, the going will be soft/heavy maybe I think. Will suit the Flag.


Edit: I see Stradivarius is OR 120 and not 118 as I was doing my calculations on. That's ever better again, more weight for it.

BoroMan32

irishgoat wrote: »

Edit: I see Stradivarius is OR 120 and not 118 as I was doing my calculations on. That's ever better again, more weight for it.

kiers47

Ya its a Group 2 not sure what ratings have to do with weight apart from evaluating how good a horse may be.

Also this particular race doesnt have a penalty for Group 1 winners so Stradivarius isnt carrying any extra from the 9-7 that he would be carrying anyway.

Also i would imagine there is going to be absolutely no Heavy in the ground by saturday considering there is no rain forecast between now and then.

irishgoat

BoroMan32 wrote: »

Well in theory, each OR 'should' be the equivalent to 1lbs extra a horse should carry. I know it's a group race, but I feel flag of honour is way more than 113, so in my theory if I have them both on 120 ratings and take into account the weight I put Flag of honour with a few lbs in hand. Yesterday the forecast was for soft to heavy. Soft will be sufficient, once it's not on the firm side of good I'm very happy.

irishgoat

On the day I really like Cracksman too, I backed it yesterday @ 2.0 and 2.04. I didn't back La Ti Dar yet, prices seem to be suspended for some reason. Looks to be a really cracking days racing.

RivetingRoger

which one of the superstars will let the 4 fold down?

Stradivarius
Lah ti Dar
Roaring Lion
Cracksman

ANDREWMUFC

Obviously the bookies won’t allow them all to win.

Think stradavarius will be the one that will lose. Possibly roaring lion also

ASOT

Surely Broadway @ 66s is worth an e/w bet tomorrow, Doyle taking a ride for O'Brien. Looked good LTO and looks like the extra distance will help.

Going to wait for 365 to have there extra places up tomorrow and go in.

akelly02

ASOT wrote: »

Surely Broadway @ 66s is worth an e/w bet tomorrow, Doyle taking a ride for O'Brien. Looked good LTO and looks like the extra distance will help.

Going to wait for 365 to have there extra places up tomorrow and go in.

Tipped by the racing post aswell

ASOT

akelly02 wrote: »

Tipped by the racing post aswell

Loves the ground and bred for the trip, gonna have a nibble of 66s and see about the extra places I'm the morning.

akelly02

Heavy ground champions day at the end of a long season usually equals freak results all over the shop, so couldn’t put u off anything

Fann Linn

I fancy Stack's 'Son of Rest' in the 2 o clock. Won at Ayr a month ago and might just repeat it.

tryfix

I'm not too enthused about this event, I feel that the usual Soft to Heavy Ground makes a balls out of what is a very decent set of races on paper.

Recoletos is my only bet at the meeting because he loves the Soft Ground and has improved this year. Roaring Lion might hose up but over the years I've seen enough top horses fail to hold their form when dropped in trip so it's worth having a bet against him.

Cracksman should be suped up for a last hurrah on his perfect going before he heads to stud but his price isn't great. The Champion Stakes used to be a classier race when it was at Newmarket rather than the current Ascot end of season bog.

BumperD

I’ll have to back Monarchs Glen tomorrow ew 14/1. Really liked him last season, if there is an upset in the race, he might just be it. He was considered good enough to contest the Dubai World Cup , pulled way too hard and blew up. Turned that around at Royal Ascot albeit in a weaker race. Back into Group 1 Company tomorrow, I put him up as one to follow this season so I guess tomorrow is his last chance to bag a Group Race in 2018.

TheMilkyPirate

Think the tin man is a worthy favorite in what is probably the race of the day. Also can't leave Laurens unbacked at a huge 9/1

gazza1

Century Dream 3.15 might have a bit to find with some but I can't see him being too far away today now that there's a bit of juice in the ground. Is a C&D winner on soft and 28/1 5 places sky looks very generous
GL

The Tetrarch

Yesterday I bought "Fifty Shades of Hay, the extraordinary world of racehorse names" by David Ashforth.

Sofa King Fast.
The Tiddly Tadpole.
The Winner Is.
Flat Fleet Feet.
The Slug.
What's His Name.

abarkie

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Also can't leave Laurens unbacked at a huge 9/1

10/1 now with 365 & Betfair (1/5 1,2,3,4)

stretchaq

All over ninjago in the 2.55 at catterick was winning races off 80s 20months who now rated 70 think today could be the day

Slattsy

Ryan Moore lol

TheMilkyPirate

Frankie done him there

Auroras_encore

Slattsy wrote: »

Ryan Moore lol

Ryan moore what?

Slattsy

A claimer wouldn't let someone up the inside like that.

Auroras_encore

very poor from oisin there

Slattsy

Auroras_encore wrote: »

Ryan moore what?

It means lots of laughs

BumperD

If you watched the jockey cam replays Flag didn’t corner correctly and was well beaten in 4th in any event best horse won

Francie Barrett

stretchaq wrote: »

All over ninjago in the 2.55 at catterick was in races off 80s 20months who now rated 70 think today could be the day

Ditto, although I haven't been able to pick a horse in the the last three weeks, so watch me stop it.

Slattsy

No fancy in this next one. If someone gave me a tenner I've have a fiver ew on Joseph's.

Joe_ Public

A horse that has let me down more than once in the past but Limato still has ability and can’t let go at 12s.

Mostly Harmless

Trying to understand why Arcturus is not fav in next at Leopardstown, ran behind some decent horses on debut, probably not beat much last time but did it well enough and mark of 78 looks very lenient, most scope for improvement in the field and not convinced he needs to improve much anyway

Slattsy

Don't ask me Why... But I've backed Hydrangea here to run into a place.

Joe_ Public

Backed God Given but can see Hydrangea doing best of AOB contingent. Money for fav but not for me anyway.

Slattsy

Good ride by Moore there, the best in the business.

ASOT

The Lion Roars again. Class.

BumperD

Thought Sheik Fahad was going to high five the Queen there

BumperD

Really growing to Oisin Murphy that was timed again perfectly

gazza1

gazza1 wrote: »

Century Dream 3.15 might have a bit to find with some but I can't see him being too far away today now that there's a bit of juice in the ground. Is a C&D winner on soft and 28/1 5 places sky looks very generous
GL

3rd. Ran a cracker

BumperD

Wow

TheMilkyPirate

Different class on that ground

BumperD

Going with South Seas in the lucky last.

Slattsy

BumperD wrote: »

Going with South Seas in the lucky last.

I did too.

If I'd have seen post earlier I'd eaten my tenner instead 😊

BumperD

Slattsy wrote: »

I did too.

If I'd have seen post earlier I'd eaten my tenner instead 😊

You hex’d it !

irishgoat

Mixed day or 2 and the pockets are a bit lighter.

This next race the 7.15 @ Wolves. I was talking to a 'trainee' bookie friend of mine and he told me the second fav aweedream, was negative all day but really good support for Global dream. I wasn't going to have a bet today apart from the ante post stuff but I reckon this is a 2 horse race so currently backing global dream @ 1.8'ish.

irishgoat

Spent the last hour or so trying to decipher the last 2 races @ wolves, the 8.45 Texas Radio, I really like this horse, currently around 4.4'ish, I have a few bob win on it. In the same race, Edge, I'm not liking it at all, I decided I'll lay for a place @ 2.14/2.12

In the 9.15 I really like Safrani, currently around 2.9'ish

antietam

Question to punters ?? how in the name of God was Lah Ti Dar 1/1 fav.Can some genius please explain this to me.It could not win based on form against the real form.IMO this was the lay of the year based on form that everyone can evaluate prior to the race If understanding.

famagusta

antietam wrote:

Question to punters ?? how in the name of God was Lah Ti Dar 1/1 fav.Can some genius please explain this to me.It could not win based on form against the real form.IMO this was the lay of the year based on form that everyone can evaluate prior to the race If understanding.

You should ask After time Ansell?!

ASOT

antietam wrote: »

Question to punters ?? how in the name of God was Lah Ti Dar 1/1 fav.Can some genius please explain this to me.It could not win based on form against the real form.IMO this was the lay of the year based on form that everyone can evaluate prior to the race If understanding.

Flat out on the gargle in southern France sting enjoy the profit

antietam

famagusta wrote: »

You should ask After time Ansell?!

This is the response of an IDIOT,please read the post[THE ****ing evidence was there in front of anyone that understands racing].These are the uneducated that bring this site down.OMG.

droidman123

You seriously couldnt make this sh*it up,its absolute class!