NBA Regular Season & Playoffs 2018-19 Thread

ButtersSuki

I'd say the chances of AD going to Lakers are better than the chances of him going anywhere else. I would say infinitely better tbh. I'd go so far as to say I can't see any other outcome. I still don't see them as favourites evem with him though.

The Rich Paul piece in SI (I think) this week is a fascinating read, and a good insight into the guy and the way he (and LeBron/Klutch etc) thinks. Personally I don't like the fact that agents have this much power and can dictate the future direction of the league itself and franchises. I don't like it at all.

ButtersSuki

Osmosis Jones wrote: »

Haven't checked the odds but I think I'll go with Steph, he could well have a Harden-type season just putting up 25 shots a game with KD and Klay out.

Had that thought but considering what's happened in the last few weeks and Steph's own injury history I can imagine they'll manage him pretty tightly next year from a minutes perspective. To see him go to a Harden-level usage rate would be fun though.....and considerably more exciting to watch.

Osmosis Jones

ButtersSuki wrote: »

Embiid missed a game in that series and was running on empty for at least one more. That ball bounces another way and who knows.

Yeah but that's not an anomaly that's just Embiid, chances are he'll be the same next post-season. I can't even imagine how fatigued he'd have been in a series against the Bucks had Philly beaten Toronto.

Hitch2222

ButtersSuki wrote: »

I'd say the chances of AD going to Lakers are better than the chances of him going anywhere else. I would say infinitely better tbh. I'd go so far as to say I can't see any other outcome. I still don't see them as favourites evem with him though.

The Rich Paul piece in SI (I think) this week is a fascinating read, and a good insight into the guy and the way he (and LeBron/Klutch etc) thinks. Personally I don't like the fact that agents have this much power and can dictate the future direction of the league itself and franchises. I don't like it at all.

Why dont you like it?

Assume agents/players are essentially the same thing.
Should players not be afforded the opportunity to have a greater say in their career than simply being passed around as a pawn to the tastes of teams.

They are well compensated but they're still people and expecting a person to be perfectly happy to have little say in their working life for a significant number of years is unheard of outside of the world of sport.

Obviously sport is different and I'm not saying the should be able to leave a team at the drop of a hat but I do think that they are the star attraction and if they're not happy then leveraging their value to put them into a situation where they would be happier while also not leaving a team with nothing seems fine with me.

No matter how well compensated players are or what players leave, they're not the ones pulling the strings and teams will still reap the bulk of the spoils.

I think returning a little bit more autonomy to players such as it has been over the past number of years seems fine with me.
Little has stood out in recent years to make me uneasy about their power to dictate their circumstances.

leggo

ButtersSuki wrote: »

I'd say the chances of AD going to Lakers are better than the chances of him going anywhere else. I would say infinitely better tbh. I'd go so far as to say I can't see any other outcome. I still don't see them as favourites evem with him though.

To be fair, if you went back last year I doubt one person called Kawhi to Toronto until it happened. That’s the thing with trades, we just don’t know what offers are on the table and the Pelicans won’t care where he wants to go after how he’s treated them. I’d be stunned if AD wasn’t with LA for 2020-21, he clearly wants to go there, but he’s got no say in this and I can absolutely see a team taking a flyer on him for one year in the hope of replicating Toronto’s success. I think Rich Paul might have scared off Boston, they seem too careful and considered to lose valuable pieces for a flyer. But there could be some desperate franchise willing to throw a ridiculous offer their way, or a savvy one with a plan we’re just not seeing. I think he only goes to LA if the rest of the league freezes up or they throw a crazy offer at New Orleans (which they may be willing to do). Don’t forget the Lakers’ messing/dysfunction at the last trade deadline totally derailed their season and risked de-stabilising everything. They won’t want to just give them what they want.

Osmosis Jones

I think LA have the best obvious offer for AD, Boston getting involved and giving up guys like Tatum and Brown when Kyrie is out the door would be insane so I can't see that happening. I'm sure there will be some dark horse offers from teams after seeing what Kawhi did with Toronto. I'd be happy with Portland giving up a whole lot for him even if it is likely only a one year rental.

kmart6

Jesus Christ!!!

https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1140023659865804802

@ModsTime for the 2019/20 thread???

Osmosis Jones

It actually happened, well then.

That's a pretty great haul for the Pels, basically everyone decent on the Lakers roster bar Kuzma (and obv LeBron).

EDIT: And you can damn sure I'm praying for this version 2.0

LuckyLloyd

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Vegas usually knows things we don’t.

Boom! The King and AD. Delicious

LuckyLloyd

The Lakers still have $30m to spend. Kemba?

Osmosis Jones

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

The Lakers still have $30m to spend. Kemba?

That's the report, they definitely need a PG so it's gotta be him, Kyrie, or D'Lo I'd say.

https://twitter.com/TheSteinLine/status/1140026897801318400

kmart6

Stein reporting that there in the last half hour

https://twitter.com/TheSteinLine/status/1140026897801318400

kmart6

Osmosis Jones wrote: »

That's the report, they definitely need a PG so it's gotta be him, Kyrie, or D'Lo I'd say.

Snap!

Going for D-Lo would be gas after hoofing him out.

callaway92

Kemba ain’t going anywhere .. and he’s def not worth a max contract anywhere

kmart6

I can't help but laugh at this. I really hope that this is the way he found out because Lonzo has got rid of him.

https://twitter.com/BA_Turner/status/1140030346320203776

Osmosis Jones

kmart6 wrote: »

Snap!

Going for D-Lo would be gas after hoofing him out.

There's basically a 2/3rds chance we see some sort of awkward reunion, either D'Lo/Lakers or Kyrie/LeBron.

I couldn't really see Kemba leaving Charlotte, especially after recent comments about taking less than the supermax to stay, but LA might just be a little too tempting for him now.

ButtersSuki

ButtersSuki wrote: »

I'd say the chances of AD going to Lakers are better than the chances of him going anywhere else. I would say infinitely better tbh. I'd go so far as to say I can't see any other outcome.

Boom.

Hitch2222

The Pelicans will be the ultimate Game Pass team next season, interesting to see what happens with Jrue Holiday now.

They should be out recruiting lots of good vets overpaying them to guide this team through.

All you need is two all stars out of this group to make it a good deal and that looks reasonably possible.

LuckyLloyd

On the surface, Pelicans get a haul. But 1.04 is just a guy in this draft; the next two will be late 1st; Hart is whatever; Ingram is never going to amount to much; Ball needs so much work.

The Lakers have made themselves relevant for a song.

Lots to do in rounding out the roster (currently have five players on the books) and AD has been injury prone. But this could be awesome. AD is arguably the best player LeBron has had his whole career.

Osmosis Jones

Because of the rule about not being able to trade consecutive picks the other two draft picks are for 2021 and 2023 at the earliest, Woj also says they have pretty heavy protections on them so could convey even further out than that, by the time the picks convey LeBron might not even be on the team any more so they could end up as good lottery picks.

simongurnick

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Vegas usually knows things we don’t.

They didnt know jack about the raptors this year

Hitch2222

simongurnick wrote: »

They didnt know jack about the raptors this year

How didn't they?

LuckyLloyd

simongurnick wrote: »

They didnt know jack about the raptors this year

I dunno, Raptors were short to win the East after the trade deadline. Warriors were favs to win the finals, Vegas couldn’t predict the injuries. But the Raps were hardly long shots as the season progressed.

simongurnick

Hitch2222 wrote: »

How didn't they?

I put them in a treble towards end of regular season and they still had juicy odds. Second best recors in the nba and they were behind about 5 or 6 teams in the market

simongurnick

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

I dunno, Raptors were short to win the East after the trade deadline. Warriors were favs to win the finals, Vegas couldn’t predict the injuries. But the Raps were hardly long shots as the season progressed.

They were longer than they should be. Even the 8/1 now is decent, although you would essentially be betting on if kawhi stays or not. Because i think if he stays and ujiri stays then they will strenghten even more...although lakers could be scary

Hitch2222

simongurnick wrote: »

I put them in a treble towards end of regular season and they still had juicy odds. Second best recors in the nba and they were behind about 5 or 6 teams in the market

Ok but that's not how sports pricing works...

It's more complicated than simply adjusting prices relative to your own judgement.

You have to consider the liability of that selection in isolation as well as its contribution to the entirety of the book.
You may offer bigger odds as your liability sits with another team so youd offer more enticing odds on a selection so to offset some of the liability elsewhere.

Additionally if they cut the Raptors in order to remain competitive they would need to increase the odds elsewhere which may be difficult to the aforementioned and sentiment elsewhere. No point setting up arbitrage opportunities for people.

It's far more multifaceted than who they favour.

simongurnick

Hitch2222 wrote: »

Ok but that's not how sports pricing works...

It's more complicated than simply adjusting prices relative to your own judgement.

You have to consider the liability of that selection in isolation as well as its contribution to the entirety of the book.
You may offer bigger odds as your liability sits with another team so youd offer more enticing odds on a selection so to offset some of the liability elsewhere.

Additionally if they cut the Raptors in order to remain competitive they would need to increase the odds elsewhere which may be difficult to the aforementioned and sentiment elsewhere. No point setting up arbitrage opportunities for people.

It's far more multifaceted than who they favour.

Mate, i know the game. Regardless of liabilty, which for them would be heavier with the US teams, they still offered a price not representive of the raptors likelihood of winning. If i'm a punter i dont care if the sportsbook is offering a discount to entice business and balance their risk or if they have simply underestimated the probabilty...value is value. The americans (media and sportsbooks) slept on the raptors this year without doubt.

SharpshooterTom

If the Warriors somehow qualify for the playoffs and get Klay and KD back just before then could they still yet be a contender?

They'll be a crap seed obviously, but there is a pathway potentially if they were to get those both back within a year.

kmart6

Have to sign them first.

SharpshooterTom

Thompson's father said he'll definitely sign again, KD a lot less certain.