Will Micheál Martin ever be Taoiseach?

James Brown

_Brian wrote: »

In fairness he has peaked, a sloppy opposition will be his highest position.

'Opposition', to use the term very loosely.

blanch152

shenanagans wrote: »

It's easy for politicians to be corrupt in a country with no accountability...... Bankers... Gardaí... Etc

https://www.transparency.org/news/feature/corruption_perceptions_index_2017#table

I don't know how many times I have to read this rubbish about how corrupt this country is. Look at the index. We are the 19th least corrupt country in the world!!

Japan is more corrupt, so is France. Since 2012, around when FG came to power, we have improved by 5 percentage points.

This isn't a defence of FG, it is just a statement of the facts.

James Brown

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Martin is the last sticking block to a merger with FG and even he is wavering on that.
It's inevitable at this stage. He has failed to stave of SF despite clean and dirty tactics.
His strategy seems to let be to let the merger happen gradually (ever closer union, so to speak) in the hope he doesn't carry the can for it.

I can't see a merger. It works for FF/FG as is. They have each other. If they blended they'd have real opposition. Some party or other would gain the spotlight and they want to keep it on them. Why join when they can look after each other more effectively in "opposition" or as "alternatives" to each other?
The result of course is the two of them practically on their uppers. I can't see either getting a majority for a few decades probably.

FrancieBrady

Matt Barrett wrote: »

I can't see a merger. It works for FF/FG as is. They have each other. If they blended they'd have real opposition. Some party or other would gain the spotlight and they want to keep it on them. Why join when they can look after each other more effectively in "opposition" or as "alternates" to each other.

I agree the current set up suits them. But it cannot last forever. The inevitable will happen. And the longer this goes on the easier it will be. They are becoming indistinguishable.

Sleeper12

blanch152 wrote:

Employment and population are higher than they have ever been. The success of FG in restoring the economy has increased the problem with housing. The rise of the entitlement culture has caused the rest of the problem with housing.

Are you crediting FG with the size of the population?

blanch152

Sleeper12 wrote: »

Are you crediting FG with the size of the population?

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2018/


Read the net migration statistics. A growing economy created more jobs which brought our young people home.


Edit: I should have added that the entitlement culture prevented the jobs being filled from elsewhere within the population.

Tell me how

blanch152 wrote:

Look at the nonsense proposals from SF and PBP to build thousands of houses next year. With what money? With what planning permission? On what land? With what construction workers?

SF and PBP are populists. They exist purely to provide a counter to those in power, FG, FF and previously Labour. Their rhetoric doesn't hold water in terms of real governance. Would be great if SF had taken initiative in NI with the assembly to show they could govern but it's still very partisan up there.

I actually think we're not doing too bad with the confidence and supply model. Government doesn't have to be about a cabinet and then a rabid opposition. Be very regressive to say we're supporting nothing until we're in power. See US for example where that extreme leads to.

shenanagans

blanch152 wrote: »

Employment and population are higher than they have ever been. The success of FG in restoring the economy has increased the problem with housing. The rise of the entitlement culture has caused the rest of the problem with housing.

The measures taken to date will have an effect, but they will take years. There is no quick solution.

Look at the nonsense proposals from SF and PBP to build thousands of houses next year. With what money? With what planning permission? On what land? With what construction workers?

Agree with the entitlement culture comment but in fairness you can't blame population increase. FG should have made difficult decisions over recent years.... If you turn down a housing offer you go to the bottom of the list..... Get single people in large properties out to facilitate families, the whole council house for life is ridiculous..... Child benefit for 2 kids max, look at Margaret cash FFS, the state paying to raise all her kids.

Itssoeasy

No I don't think so. And he'd be the first FF leader to not be Taoiseach which will probably hurt a bit. I'm sure when he joined FF it was a case of whoever was leader was more or less guaranteed to be Taoiseach at some point. As others have said he is associated with the Bertie Ahern/ Brian Cowan era and mess that created.

I honestly don't follow the inner workings of FF enough to say who would be the runners and riders in a leadership contest but it would have to be a younger TD who doesn't have the baggage of Michael Martin's era.

I also don't see FF and SF going into coalition as Sinn Fein have said they want to go into government as the major party which is unlikely in the short to medium term, as even though neither FG or FF will get an overall majority next time out(I think those days are gone honestly) they won't fall low enough to be behind SF.

blanch152

shenanagans wrote: »

Agree with the entitlement culture comment but in fairness you can't blame population increase. FG should have made difficult decisions over recent years.... If you turn down a housing offer you go to the bottom of the list..... Get single people in large properties out to facilitate families, the whole council house for life is ridiculous..... Child benefit for 2 kids max, look at Margaret cash FFS, the state paying to raise all her kids.

We had net emigration in 2013 of 18k.

We now have net immigration of 34k estimated for 2018. If the 2013 figure had stayed steady, the population would be around 150k less than now. You can work it out from this table:

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2018/

http://www.thejournal.ie/social-housing-list-june-2018-4256297-Sep2018/

"71,858 were on the list waiting for social accommodation, a reduction of 13,941 from the same date in 2017."

We could have more than eliminated the social housing list.

shenanagans

Itssoeasy wrote: »

No I don't think so. And he'd be the first FF leader to not be Taoiseach which will probably hurt a bit. I'm sure when he joined FF it was a case of whoever was leader was more or less guaranteed to be Taoiseach at some point. As others have said he is associated with the Bertie Ahern/ Brian Cowan era and mess that created.

I honestly don't follow the inner workings of FF enough to say who would be the runners and riders in a leadership contest but it would have to be a younger TD who doesn't have the baggage of Michael Martin's era.

I also don't see FF and SF going into coalition as Sinn Fein have said they want to go into government as the major party which is unlikely in the short to medium term, as even though neither FG or FF will get an overall majority next time out(I think those days are gone honestly) they won't fall low enough to be behind SF.

He will be the first FF leader not to be Taoiseach. He should step aside before the next GE. whoever is deputy leader must be the front runner... Is that Dara Calleary?

They should switch roles or better still Mm should let two young people take over as leader and deputy.

MikeyTaylor

shenanagans wrote: »

He will be the first FF leader not to be Taoiseach. He should step aside before the next GE. whoever is deputy leader must be the front runner... Is that Dara Calleary?

They should switch roles or better still Mm should let two young people take over as leader and deputy.

Correct.

blanch152

Itssoeasy wrote: »

No I don't think so. And he'd be the first FF leader to not be Taoiseach which will probably hurt a bit. I'm sure when he joined FF it was a case of whoever was leader was more or less guaranteed to be Taoiseach at some point. As others have said he is associated with the Bertie Ahern/ Brian Cowan era and mess that created.

I honestly don't follow the inner workings of FF enough to say who would be the runners and riders in a leadership contest but it would have to be a younger TD who doesn't have the baggage of Michael Martin's era.

I also don't see FF and SF going into coalition as Sinn Fein have said they want to go into government as the major party which is unlikely in the short to medium term, as even though neither FG or FF will get an overall majority next time out(I think those days are gone honestly) they won't fall low enough to be behind SF.

I think SF dropped the bigger party issue at their last Ard Fheis.

Maybe someone else with better knowledge could confirm that.

shenanagans

blanch152 wrote: »

I think SF dropped the bigger party issue at their last Ard Fheis.

Maybe someone else with better knowledge could confirm that.

There may be a day when FF or FG go into govt with SF but I'd say it's a good ten years down the road. No one wants to partner with them!!

MM has several times stated that FF won't partner with SF. Several times.... and that's recently.

Fann Linn

shenanagans wrote: »

There may be a day when FF or FG go into govt with SF but I'd say it's a good ten years down the road. No one wants to partner with them!!

MM has several times stated that FF won't partner with SF. Several times.... and that's recently.

Many others in FF would go into govt with the Shinners.

shenanagans

Really. Haven't heard any FF's say they'd go in with SF.

SF's policies just don't match up with either FF or FG. It would be totally unstable govt. Can't see it.

blanch152

shenanagans wrote: »

Really. Haven't heard any FF's say they'd go in with SF.

SF's policies just don't match up with either FF or FG. It would be totally unstable govt. Can't see it.

Quite a few of them have spoken on it.


https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/editorial/sinn-f%C3%A9in-faces-up-to-political-reality-1.2952521

"Some Fianna Fáil TDs, most notably the former deputy leader Eamon Ó Cuív, favour a coalition with Sinn Féin. If the Dáil arithmetic delivered a majority for the two parties after the next election, the pressure on Mr Martin for a change of direction might grow."

https://ansionnachfionn.com/2012/04/30/eamon-o-cuiv-republican-dissident/

"Éamon Ó Cuív has called for Fianna Fáil to consider coalition with Sinn Féin in a move that would reunite the parties split by his grandfather, Éamon de Valera"


https://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/backbench-td-contradicts-micheal-martin-on-sinn-fein-coalition-460652.html

"Backbench Fianna Fáil TD John McGuinness has contradicted his party leader, Micheál Martin, by insisting Fianna Fáil cannot definitively rule out a coalition with Sinn Féin."

shenanagans

Interesting. But still can't see FF/SF govt after next election.

Honestly think anything other than a FF or FG vote is a waste..because we'll end up with the same result. One party needs a majority or close enough to rely on Indep Alliance or Greens (if they get a few seat). No point having a election to see FG being propped up by FF again....and no changes or big decisions being brought in as a result.

Vote for SF or other small parties a waste IMO.

FrancieBrady

We don't really have a Taoiseach at the moment because of this dance FF and FG insist on doing. Would we even notice if they swapped places?

Danzy

[/quote] Fianna Fáil TD John McGuinness has contradicted his party leader, Micheál Martin, by insisting Fianna Fáil cannot definitively rule out a coalition with Sinn Féin."[/quote]

He is leader because others want things to settle down, his own TDs don't respect him.

The is often ignored and can say nothing about it.

shenanagans

FrancieBrady wrote: »

We don't really have a Taoiseach at the moment because of this dance FF and FG insist on doing. Would we even notice if they swapped places?

No we wouldn't notice if one is propping up the other still but if one got a majority or could go in with a few independents then at least more changes could be made.

FrancieBrady

shenanagans wrote: »

No we wouldn't notice if one is propping up the other still but if one got a majority or could go in with a few independents then at least more changes could be made.

The only change will be SF outstripping FF and forcing them closer to FG by the looks of this. Martin has brought them to within one point of SF, he will be under fierce internal pressure.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/irish-times-ipsos-mrbi-poll-44-in-favour-of-general-election-1.3664554?fbclid=IwAR0t3QoS2rvHYvJG2If9RF2Vmmdhsirg5XPDpaeCg0wrdIUrdQdVLJWaWlk

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The only change will be SF outstripping FF and forcing them closer to FG by the looks of this. Martin has brought them to within one point of SF, he will be under fierce internal pressure.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/irish-times-ipsos-mrbi-poll-44-in-favour-of-general-election-1.3664554?fbclid=IwAR0t3QoS2rvHYvJG2If9RF2Vmmdhsirg5XPDpaeCg0wrdIUrdQdVLJWaWlk

That poll supports the idea of a FF/SF coalition.

Edit: 21% undecided, FF still weak in Dublin, SF only on 19% when you include undecided, I think their failure to convert undecided is behind their higher ratings in polls than in elections, but this poll still points to FF/SF, with possibly a rotating Taoiseach

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

That poll supports the idea of a FF/SF coalition.

That or FG FF forming an even unhealthier cocoon around power.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That or FG FF forming an even unhealthier cocoon around power.

Don't think so. Martin wouldn't survive that result, and he is the main block on a SF/FF coalition. Also given the two parties would be roughly equal in size, the risk of being gobbled up would be less.

It would be interesting to see which 7 Departments SF would get.

FF would have to keep Taoiseach first, Finance, Foreign Affairs and Justice and Defence.

You would likely see SF in Education, Social Welfare, Children, Agriculture, Housing, Rural Development etc. They can have high profile fights for money with FF in Finance, and claim what goes wrong isn't their fault.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Don't think so. Martin wouldn't survive that result, and he is the main block on a SF/FF coalition. Also given the two parties would be roughly equal in size, the risk of being gobbled up would be less.

It would be interesting to see which 7 Departments SF would get.

FF would have to keep Taoiseach first, Finance, Foreign Affairs and Justice and Defence.

You would likely see SF in Education, Social Welfare, Children, Agriculture, Housing, Rural Development etc. They can have high profile fights for money with FF in Finance, and claim what goes wrong isn't their fault.

There are as likely to go into power with FG if they decide to go into coalition. Plenty in FG are comfy with their feet under the table now and Leo won't want to be the FG leader to relinquish power at his first election.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There are as likely to go into power with FG if they decide to go into coalition. Plenty in FG are comfy with their feet under the table now and Leo won't want to be the FG leader to relinquish power at his first election.

If Leo is smart, he knows that 2 years of FF/SF would open the way for a big increase in FG support.

shenanagans

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There are as likely to go into power with FG if they decide to go into coalition. Plenty in FG are comfy with their feet under the table now and Leo won't want to be the FG leader to relinquish power at his first election.

Agree. FF won't go in with SF. They'll plummet in the polls.

FrancieBrady

I think FG have hit peak support at this stage tbh.

shenanagans

blanch152 wrote: »

If Leo is smart, he knows that 2 years of FF/SF would open the way for a big increase in FG support.

Leo has always stated he wants out of politics young. I'd say if he loses power he'll leave politics.

I could be remembering wrong...but do I recall him mentioning 40?? He's what 38 now...If he loses at the next election he'll pull out possibly?? Unless he's had a change of heart.

Itssoeasy

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think FG have hit peak support at this stage tbh.

Based on what ?

shenanagans

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think FG have hit peak support at this stage tbh.

Agree. Winter ahead....hospital crisis...housing/homeless issues...Brexit...it's all bad news. And there's no quick answers. It's all downhill from here.

FrancieBrady

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Based on what ?

Based on the last number of years.

Itssoeasy

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Based on what ?

Based on the last number of years.

Well they aren't going down in opinion polls Francie so unless you know of a drop in the next poll and a decline in support then that doesn't seem to be true.

FrancieBrady

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Well they aren't going down in opinion polls Francie so unless you know of a drop in the next poll and a decline in support then that doesn't seem to be true.

I said I 'think they have reached peak support'.

We would require a crystal ball to verify that. It is an opinion, nothing more, but based on their inability to get past these numbers when you would have expected a bounce.

shenanagans

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Well they aren't going down in opinion polls Francie so unless you know of a drop in the next poll and a decline in support then that doesn't seem to be true.

Interesting. Listening to the Late Debate on radio at the moment. The general consensus is that FG have peaked. With winter and brexit ahead...the politicians on are fairly in agreement on FG's popularity.

Plus they say 50% of FF supporters (poll results) what MM to pull the plug on the current arrangement.

Tell me how

Itssoeasy wrote:

Based on what ?

The wheel is always turning.
Remember where FG were after GE in 2002. There was serious talk at the time that they might be wiped out.

FF have kept their nose clean over last few years and could well reap the traditional swing that opposition seem to have at election.

Question is, who will they partner with and who will be their big guns. Outside of Martin, McGrath and Dooley, few of them seem to get much airplay.

SF, PBP and AAA will do a lot of the campaigning for FF simply by highlighting housing and healthcare incessantly.

road_high

shenanagans wrote: »

Agree. Winter ahead....hospital crisis...housing/homeless issues...Brexit...it's all bad news. And there's no quick answers. It's all downhill from here.

There’s always bad news and problems- regardless of who is in power.
Voters will decide more on the lines of who they think’ll do the least worst job and be safest with the economy. This is why FG still lead the polls as despite the many problems most don’t see anything better under FF SF and risk being even worse given both parties track records and rhetoric

Rhineshark

road_high wrote: »

There’s always bad news and problems- regardless of who is in power.
Voters will decide more on the lines of who they think’ll do the least worst job and be safest with the economy. This is why FG still lead the polls as despite the many problems most don’t see anything better under FF SF and risk being even worse given both parties track records and rhetoric

Does SF *have* a track record? FF/FG can only agree on keeping SF out.

Mind you, even if a bit dubious of SF, I'm glad to see a third strong party. I am getting less and less trusting of de facto two-party governing systems.

road_high

Rhineshark wrote: »

Does SF *have* a track record? FF/FG can only agree on keeping SF out.

Mind you, even if a bit dubious of SF, I'm glad to see a third strong party. I am getting less and less trusting of de facto two-party governing systems.

Yes on county councils and in the North. And it ain’t rosy

Zubeneschamali

Tell me how wrote: »

FF have kept their nose clean over last few years and could well reap the traditional swing that opposition seem to have at election.

The "throw the govt out" vote which used to alternate from FF to FG/Lab is more likely to go to Sinn Féin, I think, since FF have been propping up the government and are clearly backing the same policies. Younger voters are more likely to overlook SFs IRA past, too, so FF may just become a smaller party of older rural social conservatives, a junior coalition partner and then suffer the usual fate of such parties.

James Brown

Tell me how wrote: »

SF and PBP are populists. They exist purely to provide a counter to those in power, FG, FF and previously Labour. Their rhetoric doesn't hold water in terms of real governance. Would be great if SF had taken initiative in NI with the assembly to show they could govern but it's still very partisan up there.

I actually think we're not doing too bad with the confidence and supply model. Government doesn't have to be about a cabinet and then a rabid opposition. Be very regressive to say we're supporting nothing until we're in power. See US for example where that extreme leads to.

Are you talking about Fine Gael? They are presiding over record breaking numbers in child homelessness and the housing crisis and health seems to be forgot. Any opposition party should be a counter to that. Except MM and FF of course.
The DUP are equally if not more of the problem in NI. Why is it up to SF to pander to the questionable financing of the anti environment bigoted creationist DUP?

You're now saying we don't necessarily need a rabid opposition? Consumption over Ebola is it? A slower worsening misery?
I actually think you've no notion of what's happening in the country outside of listening to the 'economy' flag wavers stepping over the homeless to collect their rent cheques before returning to the Dail.

We're in a situation were two people, MM and Leo, nobody voted for are deciding when we get to cast a vote on their performance and using any excuse to hold to that power. This is two sets of chancers playing the country like it's a game. The malaise years of Irish politics sprinkled with worsening crises.

I think people will only buy into the 'it could be worse' con for so long.
What must it be like to wake up every day knowing you are leader of the country by default and you need the party you lambasted a few short years ago as the worst thing to happen to the country, as your bedfellow to shore you up? I'd say it's easy enough to take if you've no ethics or not married to any particular political ethos.

goat2

I think I heard that J o Donoghue is thinking of entering back into politics, He would have been a member of M Martins party, I am wondering if he is coming back into the party

MikeyTaylor

goat2 wrote: »

I think I heard that J o Donoghue is thinking of entering back into politics, He would have been a member of M Martins party, I am wondering if he is coming back into the party

You will withdraw that statement.

blanch152

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Are you talking about Fine Gael? They are presiding over record breaking numbers in child homelessness and the housing crisis and health seems to be forgot. Any opposition party should be a counter to that. Except MM and FF of course.
The DUP are equally if not more of the problem in NI. Why is it up to SF to pander to the questionable financing of the anti environment bigoted creationist DUP?

You're now saying we don't necessarily need a rabid opposition? I actually think you've no notion of what's happening in the country outside of listening to the 'economy' flag wavers stepping over the homeless to collect their rent cheques before returning to the Dail.

I already posted a simple unchallenged explanation for the housing crisis and still we have posters rehashing rambling and incoherent rants about homelessness. It would be better if we had less of the rhetoric and more focus on the facts of the situation.

blanch152 wrote: »

We had net emigration in 2013 of 18k.

We now have net immigration of 34k estimated for 2018. If the 2013 figure had stayed steady, the population would be around 150k less than now. You can work it out from this table:

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2018/

http://www.thejournal.ie/social-housing-list-june-2018-4256297-Sep2018/

"71,858 were on the list waiting for social accommodation, a reduction of 13,941 from the same date in 2017."

We could have more than eliminated the social housing list.

The facts show that the housing crisis is a product of the economic success. Rather than the government having underperformed, the facts better fit an argument that the government were too good at putting the country back on its feet, after the mess of the Bertie and Brian years, that the infrastructure has struggled to keep up. In other words, we are dealing with the problems of success, rather than the problems of failure.

For Forks Sake

goat2 wrote: »

I think I heard that J o Donoghue is thinking of entering back into politics, He would have been a member of M Martins party, I am wondering if he is coming back into the party

He's back and going for .... Kerry County Council

https://twitter.com/jerosullivanRK/status/1052529423788986368

MikeyTaylor

For Forks Sake wrote: »

He's back and going for .... Kerry County Council

https://twitter.com/jerosullivanRK/status/1052529423788986368

It will be interesting to see how it turns out.

ancapailldorcha

MikeyTaylor wrote: »

Interesting.

Mod: Please read the charter before posting again. This isn't a forum for one word and glib posts.

shenanagans

blanch152 wrote: »

I already posted a simple unchallenged explanation for the housing crisis and still we have posters rehashing rambling and incoherent rants about homelessness. It would be better if we had less of the rhetoric and more focus on the facts of the situation.



The facts show that the housing crisis is a product of the economic success. Rather than the government having underperformed, the facts better fit an argument that the government were too good at putting the country back on its feet, after the mess of the Bertie and Brian years, that the infrastructure has struggled to keep up. In other words, we are dealing with the problems of success, rather than the problems of failure.

Problems of success! Not sure that we can blame all our current issues on success. Really feel if some hard decisions were made over the last 5 years perhaps things in housing wouldn't be so bad. Changes need to be made and to do so one party needs a majority.

James Brown

shenanagans wrote: »

Problems of success! Not sure that we can blame all our current issues on success. Really feel if some hard decisions were made over the last 5 years perhaps things in housing wouldn't be so bad. Changes need to be made and to do so one party needs a majority.

The crises have worsened. It's been put about that these things take time, especially when you are working to make them worse. FG/FF policy is making them worse. The stats prove it. We didn't get record breaking numbers of child homeless because we're doing so well. We need cut our reliance on and favouring of the private market. It doesn't work. A fact borne out by the crises. We're only short of blaming PBP or Brexit at this stage.
MM is as culpable as anyone in the government proper.