Will Micheál Martin ever be Taoiseach?

MikeyTaylor

Do you think FF will ever get into power with him as their leader?

Danzy

Not a hope

KaneToad

Nope. He's the fall guy to atone for all their sins while they languish in doldrums. A new squeaky clean leader will emerge when they return to govt in approx 5 yrs time. This country has the horn for FF - they tell us what we want to hear.

shenanagans

FF will not make any headway until MM steps down as leader. They have a few smart young people. Past time one of them stepped up. MM would be good to have at cabinet level but the public dont want to see him as Taoiseach or Tanaiste.....he's too strongly linked to the Bertie era of FF.

His interview on the Late Late a few weeks ago said it all. He's not going to give up politics any time soon....even if FF have a bad election next time around. Me first...the party a distant second.

Give it up Micheal.

Floppybits

shenanagans wrote: »

FF will not make any headway until MM steps down as leader. They have a few smart young people. Past time one of them stepped up. MM would be good to have at cabinet level but the public dont want to see him as Taoiseach or Tanaiste.....he's too strongly linked to the Bertie era of FF.

His interview on the Late Late a few weeks ago said it all. He's not going to give up politics any time soon....even if FF have a bad election next time around. Me first...the party a distant second.

Give it up Micheal.

And as usual with Irish politicians the Country coming a very distant third.

Once their own pockets are lined and then the parties pockets are lined, then maybe thry will give a few left overs to the country

McMurphy

I wouldn't be so quick to write either him or his party off.

Sure they were only out of power for one term after essentially wrecking and bankrupting the place, I repeat one term, and we were repeatedly told by their successors that they should be kept away from power for at least a generation.

Yet, due to the incompetence and gombeenism by the FG/Lab govt elected in 2011, FF were duly looking attractive enough in comparison to see them once again be let near the levers or power again, in fact labour were anhilated and FG can't govern without their (FF) permission.

5 years being told that they wrecked the country to the confidence and supply partnership.

That's some comeback no matter what anyone thinks. :cool:

seamus

Probably not. The party as a whole is becoming increasingly irrelevant, entrenched in conservative views of the past. They hold very little appeal for younger voters. Like FG, much of their voting power is shored up in elderly people who've voted FF all their lives. Unless FF reinvent themselves back to a centre-left position in the next decade, they're on their way out.

Tell me how

He will be Taoiseach, if FF are the major government party after the next election, whenever that is.

If they are not in government after that election, I expect he will move aside.
But, they don't have many alternatives who you could even put in the taoiseach conversation.

I'm impressed by him. I don't buy this simplistic view that they ruined the country given;
A, I think any Irish government (definitely including FG would have done the same at the time).
B, in spite of the problems we have (housing health etc), our economy still improved quite smoothly once things picked up. I'm not trying to be disingenuous to those who did suffer or ignore said problems but speaking simplistically, as a country, we got back to close to where we were before the crash within 10 years.

A big part of the reason I'm impressed is I think it was the mature and right thing for the country for MM to swallow party politics 12 months ago when Francis Fitzgerald resigned and not push for a GE because of critical nature of the Brexit negotiations at the time. Just after that, the backstop was agreed and signed in to the treaty negotiations. I do not think that would have happened had we been visibly fighting a GE at the time.
Which he did again last week.

amcalester

Tell me how wrote: »

He will be Taoiseach, if FF are the major government party after the next election, whenever that is.

If they are not in government after that election, I expect he will move aside.
But, they don't have many alternatives who you could even put in the taoiseach conversation.

I'm impressed by him. I don't buy this simplistic view that they ruined the country given;
A, I think any Irish government (definitely including FG would have done the same at the time).
B, in spite of the problems we have (housing health etc), our economy still improved quite smoothly once things picked up. I'm not trying to be disingenuous to those who did suffer or ignore said problems but speaking simplistically, as a country, we got back to close to where we were before the crash within 10 years.

A big part of the reason I'm impressed is I think it was the mature and right thing for the country for MM to swallow party politics 12 months ago when Francis Fitzgerald resigned and not push for a GE because of critical nature of the Brexit negotiations at the time. Just after that, the backstop was agreed and signed in to the treaty negotiations. I do not think that would have happened had we been visibly fighting a GE at the time.
Which he did again last week.

He graciously avoided a GE while FF were languishing in the polls, I wouldn't commend him for him poor performance as FF leader (according to the polls).

Tell me how

amcalester wrote:

He graciously avoided a GE while FF were languishing in the polls, I wouldn't commend him for him poor performance as FF leader (according to the polls).

I'm not trying to be naive but I don't think it is as simple as that.

Some in his own party were suggesting an election should be held and they were looking at the same polls.

amcalester

Tell me how wrote: »

I'm not trying to be naive but I don't think it is as simple as that.

Some in his own party were suggesting an election should be held and they were looking at the same polls.

Martin only has 1 more election, highly unlikely he'll be around if FF aren't in a position to form a government after the next election.

He'll only force an election if FF are riding high in the polls or if he is confident that he can lay the blame for the election on FG.

I was surprised that some were calling for an election, I wonder if they were just appealing to their constituents. I wouldn't have thought that the likes of Marc MacSharry would be too confident of winning their seat again.

Tell me how

amcalester wrote:

Martin only has 1 more election, highly unlikely he'll be around if FF aren't in a position to form a government after the next election.

Agree.
I think he will make his move after Brexit (and border) issue is somewhat clearer.

If the outcome of that election is that he's not taoiseach, then he never will be.

amcalester

I can't see Leo agreeing to a short term extension to the C&S agreement, any extension would have to include at least 1 budget so that leaves Martin having to manufacture/find a scandal between March and October if he wants an election this side of Budget 2020.

And neither Leo or Martin want an election this side of Brexit so Martin is in a fairly precarious position, doesn't want to force an election now and will probably have to agree to extend C&S for at least another budget meaning if he withdraws support before then he'll get the blame.

super_furry

I can't see Fianna Fail under the current leadership catching or over-taking Fine Gael. It's going to take another generation of politicians, one that further removed from the Bertie days.

blanch152

Fianna Fail will most probably next be in government in coalition with Sinn Fein.

The numbers point to no other probable option and they may need a revived Labour or Social Democrats or Greens to get a majority.

Micheal Martin will not go into government with Sinn Fein. He will have to stand aside or be pushed if the numbers add up to allow a majority FF/SF government after the next election (the most likely outcome in my opinion). And his TDs will push him aside in that context in the rush for power.

Two other possibilities, and they are much less likely. First is that FF overtake FG and a reverse of the current situation happens. That could only happen if FG lose seats. A Coveney or Varadkar in that situation would probably say over to yourselves, but get your support from the others as the electorate have rejected us. Problem for Martin is the same as the first one, that would mean cosying up to SF, something he is dead against. Even Eoghan Harris lauds him for his attitude to SF.

Second possibility is a coalition. Only possible if both lose seats and see a long-term merger as guaranteeing power. Highly unlikely to happen. Or if FF lose a lot of seats and become a minority party, but Martin wouldn't survive as leader.

All in all, while it is easy to see scenarios that have FF back in government, almost all involve SF, or FF losing seats, either of which would mean Martin resigning or being pushed.

steinbock123

From the day he came into the Dáil, Mícheál Martin has had a raging horn to be Taoiseach, the first Cork Taoiseach since Jack Lynch, (the real Taoiseach:)). So when the sh1t hit the fan with the last FF administration, who was the first man out the door when he saw the writing on the wall? Martin of course. He wanted to save his neck and be on the high moral ground (in so far as he could be after all that went on). If FF had any sense at that time, they would have got rid of ALL the old hands, including Martin, anyone indeed with connections back to Bertie and before. They should have then re-branded the party, (even Fianna Nua would have done), anything to distance themselves from all that had gone before. I believe that if they had done that, they would be in a better electoral position today. But Martin clung on, is now the leader, and still wants desperately to be Taoiseach at some stage.
As far back as I can remember, the running of the country has been carved up between FF & FG. There have been interlopers over the years, Labour has ebbed & flowed, the PD's were a fabulous firework show that lit up the political night sky for a time until they fizzled out eventually leaving darkness and a faint smell of sulphur in the air. A great light show though, while it lasted. But always FF & FG were the main protagonists.
And despite the current shenanigans, I see FF going along with the C&S agreement as long as it suits Martin (i.e. until such time as he thinks he can get more seats that FG). And if there’s an election, and he does get more seats, there will be another C&S agreement, only this time it’ll be FF cobbling together a mish mash coalition and Leo who’ll be propping them up, as FF is propping up Leo at the moment. I believe this is already agreed, however tacitly. This is because both parties are running scared from the rise & rise of the Shinners, and neither of the big parties want the Shinners to be in government or be seen as the main opposition party, yet they are hoisted on their own petard in this regard, for as long as either of them prop up the government of the day, they can’t be the main opposition as well! And they won’t ever go into coalition with one another, as this would automatically mean that the Shinners would then be undeniably the main opposition party. (Although if they were to go into coalition together, they could probably be in power for the next 50 years or more in some shape or form. It’s a wonder no one in either party has twigged this)
The Shinners though have their own problems. A huge proportion of the population will never vote for them, myself included, as they still hear the IRA skeletons rattling in the cupboard, (although these are inaudible to younger voters), and in general, their economic policies are vague and not very well thought out, and more than likely will involve taking even more money from people like me who feel they have worked hard all their lives for what they have, and don’t want the Shinners purloining it on them if they get into power.
So I see no election just yet, but Martin will cling on to the leadership until it does come, whenever that may be. His future then depends very much on the outcome.

Zubeneschamali

It looks to me as if Martin is the only one in FF's front ranks who knows that they must avoid becoming the party of elderly rural folks. Martin was not enthusiastic about SSM - Averil Power quit the Party partly because of that, and partly because Martin backed Sean Feckin Haughey instead of her.

But he did grudgingly back Yes, and there were noises inside FF that Martin would be ousted if No won. Of course those ******'s were utterly wrong and Martin was right, but it shows that there is a strong element within FF which would take them back into the 20th century if they got the chance, which would be the beginning of the end of the party.

screamer

No, never. He needs to realise that and he needs to step down if they are ever to have a chance at government again. Tbh FF are the most boring and lack lustre party out there at the moment. No new blood, no charisma, no new ideas, same old ****e spend spend and God will send. There's not one of them I'd be impressed by, not even one.

Zubeneschamali

screamer wrote: »

No new blood, no charisma, no new ideas, same old ****e spend spend and God will send. There's not one of them I'd be impressed by, not even one.

The sad thing is that crap as MM is, tarnished by his years in Cabinet with Bertie and Cowen, he's the best FF have got.

James Brown

He has a decent shot. By using FF, FG made them viable. It was for the security of a stable government was the spin, but if FG were genuine about all their bad press about FF, they wouldn't have brought them back to the table.
FF and FG will shore each other up and talk the talk at election. They've shown power is more important than ethics.
Therefore, yes, MM has a great shot. If they get slightly more votes than FG next election, we'll see a similar set up as we have now. Lackluster incompetent self aggrandising me feiners playing at democracy for all the people. If FG come out on top more of the same not fit for purpose selfish two tier governance.

abcabc123123

blanch152 wrote: »

Fianna Fail will most probably next be in government in coalition with Sinn Fein.

The numbers point to no other probable option and they may need a revived Labour or Social Democrats or Greens to get a majority.

Micheal Martin will not go into government with Sinn Fein. He will have to stand aside or be pushed if the numbers add up to allow a majority FF/SF government after the next election (the most likely outcome in my opinion). And his TDs will push him aside in that context in the rush for power.

Seems a bit unlikely to me. The FF grassroots are very opposed to coalition with SF, and I think FF backbenchers with time on their side are more likely to resist it than encourage it. On the other hand if Martin is faced with the choice of ending his political career or an SF coalition, he might consider it. I don't think it would matter though, as I can't see Mary Lou going in as junior partner.

Martin's only realistic hope of becoming T is by managing to pip FG at the next GE and getting a confidence and supply arrangement going, so overall, it's pretty unlikely he'll ever be T. Most likely, FF remain as the second largest party and the curtain comes down on his political career.

abcabc123123

I agree a coalition between FF and SF will likely happen before too long though, but I'd say it'll take a couple of deadlocked elections to wear down the resistance to it before it happens.

Chips Lovell

I think Fianna Fail will almost certainly be in power again. Whether Martin will be Taoiseach is another matter. I reckon he needs to win the next election. If he doesn't, they'll give him the heave-ho. FF will have seen the bounce FG and SF got by appointing new, younger leaders and will be looking for the same themselves.

loyatemu

No - he's effectively an interim leader while the party puts distance between itself and the tiger era. The last step of that process will be replacing MM with someone who wasn't involved with Bertie & Biffo.

Also as others have said, coalition with SF is their most likely route back, MM has repeatedly ruled that out so it would probably have to be with someone else as leader (& he may not have much say in the matter if they don't make some headway at the next election).

Zubeneschamali

Baron de Charlus wrote: »

FF will have seen the bounce FG and SF got by appointing new, younger leaders and will be looking for the same themselves.

Ha ha! No.

If Martin goes, it'll be some caveman from the bog who gets the leadership, and the party will continue its slide.

eagle eye

Micheal Martin is linked to all the scandalous stuff that happened and as long as he is leader of FF they will never recover. When he goes they may eventually get back to where they were. There isn't any serious opposition to them in this country.

James Brown

eagle eye wrote: »

Micheal Martin is linked to all the scandalous stuff that happened and as long as he is leader of FF they will never recover. When he goes they may eventually get back to where they were. There isn't any serious opposition to them in this country.

I don't think FF voters care. You have to look at the mentality. It's a them and us scenario. It's only a question of were the floating voters lie at the time. FF and FG will always have a core support. They can literally let the country go to hell in a hand basket and still command more votes than the PBP types that get bandied about like bogey men.
They may switch Martin out, but I think everyone knows it would be merely for looks.

The floating voters attitude of 'better the devil you know', or 'the others (might be) are worse' is self fulfilling the 'no opposition' prophecy.

Sleeper12

MikeyTaylor wrote:

Do you think FF will ever get into power with him as their leader?

I don't think they will but I don't think that it's down him. He'll be gone as leader by the time the party comes back enough in the polls. I don't believe that he is holding the party back.

Personally I think he has done a good job in opposition.

blanch152

Matt Barrett wrote: »

I don't think FF voters care. You have to look at the mentality. It's a them and us scenario. It's only a question of were the floating voters lie at the time. FF and FG will always have a core support. They can literally let the country go to hell in a hand basket and still command more votes than the PBP types that get bandied about like bogey men.
They may switch Martin out, but I think everyone knows it would be merely for looks.

The floating voters attitude of 'better the devil you know', or 'the others (might be) are worse' is self fulfilling the 'no opposition' prophecy.

To be fair FG have never "let the country go to hell in a hand basket". That is a lazy, tired and false interpretation.

I do not agree with the direction they are taking this country in relation to environmental issues and carbon tax, but they have never presided over a mess in the way that FF have.

The PBP bogey men types as you call them have nutty economic policies, so until that changes are never going to get anywhere.

Sleeper12

blanch152 wrote:

I do not agree with the direction they are taking this country in relation to environmental issues and carbon tax, but they have never presided over a mess in the way that FF have.

FG just haven't been in power long enough. The budgets since the troika have left have been reckless imo

engiweirdo

The most sneaky looking man I think I've ever seen. Like a cross between Bob Odenkirk, a snake and a weasel. That'd be enough to put anyone off its own surely?