Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

ancapailldorcha

Mod: When posting a link, please add some sort of comment as to what it contains instead of just pasting it.

Sam Russell

Does the WA require the EU Parliament to agree it? Have they not let it be known that they will not agree if it does not include a NI backstop?

Capt'n Midnight

mayo.mick wrote: »

The tyre factory will close by mid-2020 after the French firm deemed it "unsuitable" in the current climate.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-46109213

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://news.sky.com/story/german-manufacturer-schaeffler-to-shut-two-uk-plants-after-brexit-11546123

500 more jobs laid upon the brexit alter.

And the people bowed and prayed to the brexit god they had made.

These are small in the great scheme of things.

But they will have knock on effects because of the WTO "Rules Of Origin" ( ROO )

Put simply if the UK use too high a % of imported parts to build a car then it's no longer considered a UK car for FTA purposes.


The EU will probably give the UK a pass on parts imported from the EU*, so it's the third party countries that will need convincing.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/rules-origin

Typically, for preferential origin, around 50%+ of value has to be added to claim origin.

... the average car made in the UK purchases 44% of its components from UK suppliers. But the proportion of this actually made in the UK “is somewhere between 20% and 25%”, which is a long way from the 55–60% threshold needed to qualify for any FTA. Hawes has pointed out that “To move from where we currently are — let us say 20% to 25% originating content — to 60% will take many years. There is not necessarily the capability here in the UK.”

* If they get a deal that is, Nothing is agreed until Everything is agreed ,
95% of nothing is still nothing :mad:

RobMc59

I think Leo Varadkar is the voice of reason in an insane situation and has certainly shown himself to be a good leader ,He  heightens the profile of Ireland in a positive way.

Beechwoodspark

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Hmmm...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-46109889?__twitter_impression=true

If true then the deal is all but done.

An Ciarraioch

Sam Russell wrote: »

Does the WA require the EU Parliament to agree it? Have they not let it be known that they will not agree if it does not include a NI backstop?

Yes, Verhofstadt has repeatedly tweeted that without an NI backstop, the European Parliament would vote down a Withdrawal Agreement.

Beechwoodspark

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Hmmm...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-46109889?__twitter_impression=true

If true then the deal is all but done.

charlie14

prawnsambo wrote: »

That was in relation to the UK trying to do end-runs (yet again) around Barnier. So no talking to Ministers or other bilateral type arrangements.

Seemed to me it was also to prevent any muddying of the waters by the UK through the media on the "he said she said" basis as well.
Looking at this the UK has managed to do both by us engaging with them directly now.

charlie14

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Hmmm...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-46109889?__twitter_impression=true

With virtually no detail it reads like a UK wish list.

Capt'n Midnight

Leroy42 wrote: »

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1041456/Brexit-news-Richard-Tice-Macron-Calais-Dover-port-traffic-latest-UK-trade-EU-withdrawal

Here is a case in point. Its simple, says this guy, to simply get a product from Australia instead of EU. Of course he says nothing about the time delays, the probable need for larger shipments to make it economical, the issues with perishable goods on long transit, insurance, banking, relationship building, stock outs and how to replenish them. As has been pointed out, if stock runs low, for whatever reason, it is fairly quick to get more stock from the EU. Need an extra 10 barrels from Australia?

Unless you are transporting perishables then Just In Time doesn't have to mean ASAP. As long as the stuff arrives when you need it, happy days.

Provided of course you don't mind tying up more capital in 'goods in transit' and the costs of financing that dead money. Or paying higher transport costs for smaller vessels on a longer route.


Mr Tice said: "The great thing about business people who want to buy and sell stuff is, if you’ve got good products, someone else will buy it.
So far there has been no upswing in exports to the Commonwealth even though sterling fell. If your stuff isn't better then people will opt for cheaper and quicker.

charlie14

According to Channel 4 it really was nothing but a wish list.

prawnsambo

charlie14 wrote: »

Seemed to me it was also to prevent any muddying of the waters by the UK through the media on the "he said she said" basis as well.
Looking at this the UK has managed to do both by us engaging with them directly now.

At this stage, the UK muddying the waters is a daily occurrence. There are so many leaks and counter-leaks, statements and denials and press hysteria on the back of it all, that it's impossible to know what the UK is saying at any point. And we all get excited here when one of these things happens and then it's back to normal when it turns out to be another ill-fated kite flight.

oscarBravo

I've received notification from two UK-based financial services companies in the last week alone - one insurance, one payment processing - that they are setting up operations in Ireland because of Brexit uncertainty. The hedging is getting real.

FrancieBrady

Didn't hear the news this evening driving home in horrible weather.

Why were SF and FF having a pop at Leo in the Dail today?

Capt'n Midnight

Sam Russell wrote: »

There is the problem of HGV driver licenses, insurance cover, driver tacho times, etc etc. Plus of course, cargo inspections, and the delays, and the queues.

And the limited number of permits will be rationed. Go to page 14 of this PDF

International Road Haulage Permits - Guidance on Determining Permit Allocations

Each application will get a score based on how many international journeys were made in the last 12 months, and what sector they goods you carried were in, and some randomness and how you scored against others in the same sector. So it's a lottery.

There are a limited number of ECMT permits available for UK hauliers. For 2019 there are
984 annual permits for Euro VI emission vehicles, 2,592 monthly permits for Euro VI
emission vehicles, and 240 monthly permits for Euro V or VI emission vehicles
...

We estimate that around four times as many operators will
receive permits if an element of weighted random selection is included in the allocation
process.
...

Some European countries limit the number of ECMT permits that can be used there. You
will be asked in your application if you are travelling to any of these countries.

sink

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Didn't hear the news this evening driving home in horrible weather.

Why were SF and FF having a pop at Leo in the Dail today?

Yeah, I thought Leo handled Mary-Lou very well.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/mcdonald-and-varadkar-in-fiery-clash-over-brexit-review-clause-1.3688453

An Ciarraioch

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Didn't hear the news this evening driving home in horrible weather.

Why were SF and FF having a pop at Leo in the Dail today?

This question of a review mechanism for the backstop, but as the day has progressed, the idea of the UK unilaterally pulling out has been firmly rejected.

charlie14

prawnsambo wrote: »

At this stage, the UK muddying the waters is a daily occurrence. There are so many leaks and counter-leaks, statements and denials and press hysteria on the back of it all, that it's impossible to know what the UK is saying at any point. And we all get excited here when one of these things happens and then it's back to normal when it turns out to be another ill-fated kite flight.

All true, but I don`t see why we should be joining in and helping them do it. Especially to the extent where it has resulted in some of our own media and Dail members asking questions.



As soon as May mentioned this latest kite flying exercise Varadkar reply should have been the same as that given to our government ministers and diplomats a very short time ago.
That is a matter for the EU who represent our views.I can let you have Michel Barnier`s personal number if you do not have it.

charlie14

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

This question of a review mechanism for the backstop, but as the day has progressed, the idea of the UK unilaterally pulling out has been firmly rejected.

The Irish Independent had it front page as well and were pretty critical. Even going as far as having a go in its editorial comment.

ARNOLD J RIMMER

While I like Leo. He should keep his mouth shut and leave it to Simon Coveney and Michel Barnier to do the talking.

FrancieBrady

sink wrote: »

Yeah, I thought Leo handled Mary-Lou very well.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/mcdonald-and-varadkar-in-fiery-clash-over-brexit-review-clause-1.3688453

Enda taught him well. 'Can't answer the question asked, deflect to the north'. :rolleyes:

ancapailldorcha

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Enda taught him well. 'Can't answer the question asked, deflect to the north'. :rolleyes:

Serious discussion only please.

prawnsambo

charlie14 wrote: »

The Irish Independent had it front page as well and were pretty critical. Even going as far as having a go in its editorial comment.

I wouldn't be holding the Indo up as some kind of bastion of resposnible journalism. By all means, factual reports are quotable, but editorial is about as useful as toilet paper.

I really don't understand the issue with this 'review' process. It's smoke and mirrors for the HoC and the Tories. Designed to give the ERG bunch the warm fuzzies about the prospect of unicorns at the end of the rainbow.

Hurrache

It was a comment that's been jumped upon by those looking to make political capital. There was very little in it and it's really a mountain out of a molehill.

Leroy42

So Leo said there could be a review. So? Isn't there the line 'unless and until'?

How do people think this will be dealt with if not a review. SF are unwise to suddenly start sticking their nose into this, it is exactly the type of division the UK are hoping for. The UK have nothing to offer so are hoping, as was the case with TM summer Europe travel plans, to create divisions and hope to get away with it. SF are doing nothing but grandstanding. Why are SF not out organising protests and marches like the peoples vote in the North if they are so concerned?

He is saying nothing different, just making the language appear nicer.

Faugheen

Leroy42 wrote: »

So Leo said there could be a review. So? Isn't there the line 'unless and until'?

How do people think this will be dealt with if not a review. SF are unwise to suddenly start sticking their nose into this, it is exactly the type of division the UK are hoping for.

He is saying nothing different, just making the language appear nicer.

Exactly this. The problem is Theresa May spun their meeting as putting a time-limit on the backstop, no mention of 'unless and until' like Leo said, so people assumed that May wasn't talking ****e as she normally does.

Well, they knew she was talking ****e, but used it as a political football to kick at Varadkar instead.

Frank Bullitt

Christ almighty, I already knew Piers Morgan was a complete donkey, this just confirms it.

sink

My understanding is that the review mechanism will objectively examine whether conditions have been met whereby the backstop is no longer necessary to maintain an open border. if such conditions have not been met, then the backstop remains in place. That seems fairly innocuous from an Irish perspective.

Such a review mechanism costs us nothing in terms of our goals. If it gives May a little bit more leeway to coax enough MPs to pass the bill, then by all means fire away.

charlie14

prawnsambo wrote: »

I wouldn't be holding the Indo up as some kind of bastion of resposnible journalism. By all means, factual reports are quotable, but editorial is about as useful as toilet paper.

I really don't understand the issue with this 'review' process. It's smoke and mirrors for the HoC and the Tories. Designed to give the ERG bunch the warm fuzzies about the prospect of unicorns at the end of the rainbow.

I certainly would not look at the Indo as a bastion of responsible journalism by any means, and very rarely read it. But it is a national newspaper with the largest circulation.



That is the problem with this "review" process. Nobody understands it.



If Varadakar had followed his own governmental advice to our ministers and diplomats off when approached by UK counterparts refer them to the EU who represent us, then the UK would have neither smoke or mirrors to play with and there would have been no national newspaper front page coverage, editorial comment or Dail questions.

Hurrache

Leroy42 wrote: »

So Leo said there could be a review.

He didn't even go as far as saying that.